UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz- Retrospective and Bet Pack Review
UFC 183 had its highs and lows and will probably be a forgettable card in the grand scheme of things. With a prediction record of 6-5 it wasn’t a great way for me to finish the month of January. Onward and upward, but before that lets take a look back.
The Fight Pass undercard portion of the event was a little hit and miss. Thiago Santos put Andy Enz away via TKO inside the first frame and most likely ended his UFC run at a dismal 0-3. A pair of Brazilians went to “war”, if you could call it that as Ildemar Alcantara won a snoozer via split decision over Richardson Moreira.
Kicking off the televised prelims, Rafael Natal surprised many with a strong striking based assault against Tom Watson. Natal integrated his grappling game effectively with his striking, never really allowing his opponent to find his groove.
Despite missing the weight John Lineker outlasted Ian McCall, in most likely his final Flyweight fight. Lineker has now missed weight multiple times, but had no problem channelling his inner Roy Nelson by rubbing his belly after the bout- not an overly intelligent move. McCall’s loss is a sizeable setback in his pursuit of a title shot, but Lineker leaving the division will probably alleviate the impact to a certain degree.
Derek Brunson stopped veteran Ed Herman in just 36 seconds. Good thing ‘Short Fuse’ didn’t do anything ridiculous in the buildup to the fight, like calling out the former Middleweight champ as aa beatable future foe.
Miesha Tate showed incredible toughness, battling back from a very rough first round and a couple of nasty injuries to best fellow former title challenger Sara McMann. McMann was the more likely of the 2 to earn a return engagement with the current champ but this defeat badly deflates those desires.
In a tale of two rounds, Jordan Mein opened the PPV with a dominant first frame against Thiago Alves. Landing a plethora of hard strikes that would have finished a mere mortal. Just 39 seconds into the 2nd round Alves came storming back with a bruising body kick that sent the Canadian crumpling to the mat and a subsequent TKO defeat.
In probably the most entertaining bout of evening, Tim Boetsch started strong and was looking like an unheralded underdog on the verge of taking a bite out the quick rising Thales Leites. ‘The Barbarian’ won the opening round on my scorecard and appeared on his way to a successful second round, when he was put on his back and shortly thereafter put to sleep. Leites is for real and he adds another interesting name into the growing Middleweight upper-class.
Bonus machine Joe Lauzon held his own early, but youth prevailed as Al Iaquinta earned the second round knockout. Iaquinta would serve as an excellent opponent for the opponent-less Jorge Masvidal after Benson Henderson was rebooked. Don’t check the date on the publication of this post.
In another fight marred by weight cutting, Tyron Woodley bested Kelvin Gastelum by split decision and then graciously returned Kelvin’s $9000 penalty for not making weight. The unfortunate part of the fight was that it was incredibly winnable for KG. When he pressured Woodley, the former Strikeforce competitor parked his back on the cage and offered a limited offensive rebuttal. A more conditioned Kelvin wins that fight.
In a triumphant return, Anderson Silva defeated Welterweight turned 185er, Nick Diaz. Diaz seemed oddly shocked regarding the outcome, and while the fight might not have as clear as the 50-45s earned by the Spider- the former champ rightfully took the decision. Many have called for Silva to retired on a high note, but regardless of the outcries from family and friends- Silva will most likely return with a padded pocket courtesy of one Mr. Dana White. For Nick Diaz, it would be nice to see him return to the more appropriate weight class as stop being a ‘Loser’- his words, not mine. Nick has lost 3 in a row, but considering 2 of those bouts came against a pair of all-time greats it can be overlooked. Nick needs to put in some yeoman’s work build his way up the ranks instead of continually jumping into the deep end. I hope he returns, and a bout with the likes of Jake Ellenberger or a slightly higher profile fight with Tyron Woodley would be great.
That’s a wrap, the bet pack is posted below- it was mostly crap. The New England Patriots won the Super Bowl on probably the worst play call in the history of sport. Marshawn Lynch doesn’t go backwards, at least not very often, so 3 tries from the 1 yard line should have produced a second title win. It was a good game though. We have a little break before our next card so let’s enjoy the hiatus and come back fresh. Deal? Deal!
Void Selection 2: Ildemar Alcantara $1.59 Selection 3: Tate/ =================================================== Price: $2.17 x Bet: $100 Payout: $217 =================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Thiago Alves $2.30 =================================================== Price: $2.30 x Bet: $100 Payout: $230 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Tom Watson $2.58 =================================================== Price: $2.58 x Bet: $100 Payout: $258 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Joe Lauzon $2.70 Selection 2: Kelvin Gastelum $1.87 Selection 3: Thiago Santos $1.60 =================================================== Price: $8.08 x Bet: $100 Payout: $808 =================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: McCall/ Selection 2: Leites/ Selection 3: Moreira/ Alcantara Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.30 =================================================== Price: $6.97 x Bet: $100 Payout: $697 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Diego Brandao $1.60 Void Selection 2: Kelvin Gastelum $1.87 Selection 3: Thiago Alves $2.30 Selection 4: Tom Watson $2.58 =================================================== Price: $17.76 x Bet: $100 Payout: $1776 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Silva/ Total Rounds Under 3.5 $1.67 Selection 2: Kelvin Gastelum $1.87 Selection 3: Thiago Alves $2.30 Selection 4: Joe Lauzon $2.70 Selection 5: Moreira/ Alcantara Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.30 =================================================== Price: $44.61 x Bet: $100 Payout: $4461
Thiago Santos $1.60 vs
I picked Enz to beat Guimaraes and while he was taken down several times it was his inability to win the striking exchanges that cost him the fight. That does not bode well for him against a much more capable striker like Santos. Enz is tough but unless he can make this an ugly one I just don’t see him doing enough to win. If he can incorporate his ground game that is a different story, but he has been shutdown in that category since making the jump to the big leagues. His cardio isn’t great and once he slows down he becomes very hittable. Santos is a sharp striker and his low kicks will take a lot out of Enz. He will also take advantage of the defensive liabilities that Enz has in his striking game. I am leaning towards Santos as a Gold parlay play, but he could slip to the Silver section because this fight is taking place in spot known for upsets. The total is also worth a look.
Richardson Moreira $2.60 vs
I took a long look at Moreira as an EPU candidate and there are some key characteristics here. I will break that down further in the Scenarios Section. Ultimately I went with Ildemar because of Moreira’s gas tank and pension for using a wild undisciplined style. Alcantara is the more refined striker both on the mat and the feet, but he still needs to be careful not to get careless when his opponent tries to bull rush him. At this price I feel like Alcantara is worth strong consideration for the Gold pack and the total is worth consideration here as well.
Diego Brandao $1.60 vs
Unless Diego takes a complete nose dive in capability and/or confidence after getting smashed by top level competition- I think we are getting a deal here. He is too strong for Hettes to control in the clinch and far too dangerous on the feet for Hettes to find much success at range. Unless Diego exhausts himself in the first round like he did against Elkins, this is his fight to win. I really like DB to be a solid contributor as a Gold parlay leg. I also feel the total is very playable here.
Rafael Natal $1.59 vs
Based purely on the numbers, Natal is the typical fighter that gives ‘Kong’ all kinds of trouble. Unfortunately for Natal, the bulk of those numbers (Sub wins & takedowns) came earlier in his career and haven’t been nearly has prevalent in his most recent efforts. If his opponent is willing to engage him on a grappling front then he will reciprocate, but that won’t be the case here. A lot of his struggles can be attributed to a less then stellar gas tank. Watson’s has the type of style to exploit that. He is far from a cardio horse himself, but he is still active even when he gets tired. Natal’s chin is also a major question mark. I will take the dog here, a single bet is probably the best option. Most likely in the Silver section.
Ian McCall $1.50 vs
The rumours that are circulating around regarding McCall’s hand are quite concerning. I have heard that he is unable to make a proper fist, which is essential (or so I have been told) to fighting- at any level. Usually stuff like this gets a little overblown, but it is something worth considering. If healthy, McCall’s style is a nice foil to Lineker’s aggressive power striking approach. I am not saying that Lineker can’t knock him out or McCall won’t get drag into a brawl which benefits Linker- I just think it is unlikely. I expect to see McCall moving around the outside of the cage, forcing Lineker to chase him down all the while draining his energy and making him far less effective. I like the price here, I like the fighter, I like the Gold pack parlay option.
Ed Herman $4.75 vs
A bet on the on a side doesn’t interest much here, but the total is quite intriguing. I will post more in the Prop section.
Miesha Tate $2.95 vs
This fight frightens me. I have picked against Tate in the past and then watched as (at least I felt) Liz Carmouche was robbed of a decision. McMann should win this fight and I don’t want to judge her on her last performance- but it wasn’t good. Her wrestling dominance only becomes partially effective without strikes from the top. TBH if Lauren Murphy was replaced with Miesha Tate and she was as active off her back as Murph was then I could see the judges giving Tater the win. I expect McMann to be very active from top position and I expect her to be in said position a lot. I felt she suffered tremendously from the ‘post-title fight blues’ against Murphy. It is hard to go from the main even where she fought the biggest name in the history of the division, gets obliterated, and then fights a debuting lesser-known opponent on the undercard of a free show. She will be up for Tate. All that being said, I still could see the former Strikeforce champ edging this one out if McMann gets routinely stood up. I will be very careful with my inclusion of McMann and will most likely use the Total in a more important spot then the side.
Jordan Mein $1.77 vs
I like Jordan Mein, I want to see him win this fight and continue to climb the ladder in the division. So when I want a fighter to win, but feel so strongly that they won’t and pick against them that tells me something. Can Mein win this fight? Absolutely! But I think Alves is going to edge this one out. I think we are looking at a fairly close battle, but the ultimate decider will be the leg kicks of Thiago. Mein has a tendency to think he can take a strike and walk through it. He did it against Evangelista Santos’s leg kicks and it nearly cost him. He won’t be so luck here. If Alves lands just a couple it is going to inhibit his movement and that will be enough to cost Mein the fight. The total is worth a look, but I will play Alves as a single bet in the Gold package.
Thales Leites $1.29 vs
The line really isn’t doing much for me here, but the totals is intriguing. I will take a deeper look and post about it in the prop section.
Joe Lauzon $2.70 vs
Upset #3 of the night. Al has looked very good of late and there are a lot of people making valid points about why he is going to box Joe up. I can see it happening and will bet accordingly. But I also feel that Lauzon is by far the most dangerous submission fighter that Al has ever faced. He is also the most experienced when it comes to overall fights and competing at the elite level. If Al makes one mistake he is going to be in a bad position against a guy that only needs one opportunity to finish. If they clinch up, watch for Lauzon to work to Al’s back and start looking for the RNC. A single bet is a possibility here, I think Alves ranks in above Lauzon. I am not sure yet how Watson stacks up against yet, but I think Lauzon slips to a Silver single bet or possible 2 leg parlay because of the success his opponent has been having of late.
Tyron Woodley $2.04 vs
I L-O-V-E Gastelum here, but don’t bet sooner then you have to. The line is moving closer to even and some sites even have KG as the dog. YES! You can tell I am excited. Currently 56% of the Public is favouring T-Wood as well. Which makes me like Gastelum even more. This is my 10th time predicting Woodley and I feel like I have a pretty solid read on. He is going to struggle with the pressure and pace of Kelvin and much like KG did against Musoke he will take over in rounds 2 and 3. I am concerned with the big strike of Woodley, but his inability to win fights that go into the second half is more concerning if you back Woodley. I will make either a single bet on Gastelum or pair him up with one more.
Update: Gastelum looked like death warmed over at the weigh-ins. He has dropped on most sites to somewhere between $2.10 to $2.30. Apparently he was sick, got to 175 pounds, had to stop cutting, started throwing up, and was hospitalized. I have been burned several times by making changes based on the weigh-ins. I am going to sick by my pick. Gastelum has 24-hours to rehydrate and get ready- hold the line.
There are too many questions marks surrounding Silva to consider a bet at this price. Nick might be worth a look if Silva is truly done being elite, but I will address that elsewhere. I think the total is the most playable option here. Check the prop section.
1. Thales Leites $1.29
2. Ian McCall $1.50
3. Derek Brunson $1.22
4. Kelvin Gastelum $1.87
6. Diego Brandao $1.60 Cancelled
8. Sara McMann $1.50
9. Thiago Santos $1.60
10. Thiago Alves $2.30
11. Tom Watson $2.58
12. Joe Lauzon $2.70
1. Kelvin Gastelum $1.87 // This is the best spot to invest your money. Gastelum is a fighter on the rise that has experience continual growth every time we see him. Woodley is pretty much the same fighter and has been for a while now. If he can’t win it early T-Wood will be up against it.
2. Thiago Alves $2.30 // I wanted to take Mein here, so it says a lot that I didn’t. I would love to see Jordan win this fight, but Alves is my play. Leg kicks, and lots of them will carry the day for the Pitbull.
3. Tom Watson $2.58 // Natal has the type of skill set on paper that has been too much for Watson to overcome, but this fight won’t take place on paper. Look for ‘Kong’ to where him out and where other opponents couldn’t capitalize on Natal’s state- the Brit will.
4. Joe Lauzon $2.70 // Lauzon represents a massive test for Iaquinta. His biggest win was in his last fight over Ross Pearson and Al’s submission vulnerability appears to have disappeared from most peoples’ minds. Lauzon is a veteran and has the skills to get the job done here against a still relatively green fighter.
5. Diego Brandao $1.60 Cancelled // DB beats out a couple of props with larger price tags because I feel very strongly that he wins this fight. Hettes is a specialist and is out of his depth if he can’t grapple. DB shuts him down and wins fairly handily.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
1. Nick Diaz $4.25 // If Anderson is done competing at a high level Nick should be able to exploit it with his cardio. He is probably worth a small bet, especially if you are just need a Silva win over Total to complete a parlay.
2. Miesha Tate $2.95 // I have this lingering feeling that Tate is going to eek this one out if McMann isn’t dominant with her wrestling. I would like to see this price creep over the $3 mark, before I am too interesting in backing the side. The over is still the most reliable play.
The Counter Bet list consists of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Exclusive Bet Pack Content.
See the Betting Scenario’s Section.
See the Betting Scenarios Section.
Hettes is coming off the first TKO defeat of his career, but he was able to survive till the 2:57 mark of round 3. Brandao has not scored a non-TUF knockout since his pre-UFC days in early 2011- 7 fights ago. I expect to see Brandao focus on defensive grappling and maintaining a pace that he is comfortable with. Hettes is tough and should be able to survive the first half of the fight. Play the Over.
McCall has gone to decisions in all 5 of his UFC bouts and in 9 of his last 11 fights. Lineker has won by TKO in each of his last 4 wins- but all against lower end strikers. McCall is a far superior striker the anyone he has faced in the UFC and should be able to avoid his power strikes. Play the Over.
Both guys have better finishing rates then most would anticipate and that is why we are getting some solid value here. Herman has gone to decision in 3 straight bouts and 4 of his last 5. Brunson has only gone to decision 5 times in his career, but all of those 5 fights have come in his last 9 outings. He has also gone over 2.5 rounds in 5 of his last 7. Brunson will focus on top control, position over submission, to hold down the submission savvy Herman.
See Betting Scenario’s Section
Both guys can finish, but I think the line posses some nice value on the Over. Boetsch has gone under the total in 2 straight, but prior to that he had gone into the 3rd round in 8 of his last 9. Leites has gone to decision 10 times in his carer. Same story for Leites, 2 straight unders but they were preceded by 4 Overs in 6 fights. Leites should be the frontrunner here, but Boetsch is pretty tough to put away and will hold on for the duration.
A Total Rounds Under 3.5 $1.67
I have gone back and forth on this one and eventually settled on the Under. Diaz’s style will keep him in range of Anderson’s striking arsenal, something that Silva will enjoy. Additionally, if Silva’s chin is gone, Nick will land something inside the first 17 and a half minutes to put that on display. Someone gets the finish.
Super Bowl 49- New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks
The game is currently sitting at even, so the Money Line and the Spread are currently the same value. I like Seattle here at even and might even consider teasing in a couple of points to add some value. Probably nothing more then 2.5 to stay safe as I could see a late ‘meaningless’ touchdown from New England cutting into a larger lead.
Bill Belichick and co. are a tough team to beat when they have time to prepare and devise schemes to defend against their opponent’s weapons. The difference here is that Russell Wilson is difficult to scheme for because of his ability to scramble and create plays on the fly. Look for him to make mid-game adjustments if the offense doesn’t produce early.
Additionally, the combination of Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson running the ball will amp up the possession time in favour of Seattle which will keep Tom Brady and his offense on the sidelines.
Offensively, the Patriots have struggled to run the ball of late and have relied heavily on the passing game. As good as Brady is, this approach will play directly into the teeth of the dangerous Seattle secondary. When faced with a higher then average number of passing attempts, the Seahawks defense will turn those numbers into defensive points.
The new formations and eligible/ineligible receiver confusion that the Pats have utilized to score points during their playoff run have now been addressed by both the Officials and Seattle. The 2 weeks to prepare and learn how to identify these formation will take some of the mystery/ confusion out these plays and make them far less productive.
Also, don’t underestimate the value of Seattle playing in Arizona once a year, every year, which will give them some extra familiarity.
Finally, I expect points to be scored by both offenses and Seattle’s defense. So the over is my lean on the total. Look for Seattle to pull ahead early and as mentioned above Brady will try to counter with a pass heavy attack. This will lead to TDs and turnovers. They may only go over by a couple of points so be careful if the line starts to creep towards 49-49.5.
Seattle 31 New England 17
My Plays: Seattle ML $1.90 and Over 47.0 $1.90