UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier- Retrospective & Bet Pack Review
UFC 182 was a slightly delayed version of the promotions New Years Eve show and while the headliner delivered, the majority of the main card came up well short of expectations. The prelims started a little slow, but certainly had their moments worth that are worth revisiting. From a prediction and betting perspective, this card was almost a complete failure with just a couple of props and one upset providing bright spots. We will take a look at the bet backs and its short comings in due time.
Marion Reneau def. Alexis Dufresne via Decision
Alexis Dufresne we hardly knew you. After a second time missing weight followed up by another upset loss there is no doubt Dufresene needs to be let go. Reneau looked good on the feet and has some skills on the floor, but she needs to be put up against someone that isn’t the equivalent of a walking bag of meat. Predictions 0-1 Props 0-1
Omari Akhmedov def. Mats Nilson via Decision
Nilsson’s cut to 170 didn’t go as plan. Akhmedov got off to a strong start, but slowed down significantly. Unfortunately for the Swede he was unable to capitalize on his opponent’s change of pace quick enough to turn the fight in his favour. Predictions 1-1 Props 0-2
Evan Dunham def. Rodrigo Damm via Decision
The former top rated prospect picked up a must needed win and probably sent the Brazilian vet packing in the process. Dunham controlled the majority of the action and routinely landed hard undefended shots against an opponent who was simply overmatched. Hopefully the UFC will give Dunham a chance to build some momentum before tossing him back in with the division’s elite. Predictions 2-1 Props 1-2
Shawn Jordan def. Jared Cannonier via KO Rnd. 1
Jordan starched the UFC newcomer and (most likely) future Light Heavyweight in abrupt fashion. Jordan is a low level gatekeeper and most likely will remain there. Cannonier needs to cut to 205 and see how he will fair fighting more size appropriate opponents. I was unfortunately on the wrong side of both the prediction and the prop bet, after switching from my initial plays of Jordan and the Under. Predictions 2-2 Props 1-3
Cody Garbrandt def. Marcus Brimage via TKO Rnd. 3
One of the my few bright spots on the entire card and the second of 3 consecutive knockouts. Garbrandt ended the fight late and appeared to be headed towards a close decision win, but it was far from a certainty until the end of the 3rd round took place. Garbrandt showed a lot of upside, but needs to tighten up his defensive game along working on his second half output. Brimage should still have a home as a lower level gatekeeper despite the defeat. Predictions 3-2 Props 1-3
Paul Felder def. Danny Castillo via KO Rnd. 2
He took the fight on short notice and then pulled off an emphatic spinning backfist KO over a very solid veteran and in process put himself on the 155 pound map. Castillo appeared way too focused on testing out his striking, hardly acknowledging his wrestling capabilities throughout the bout. Felder shouldn’t rush himself into the upper echelon of the division, but another noteworthy veteran like KJ Noons would be an excellent fit. Predictions 3-3 Props 1-4
Hector Lombard def. Josh Burkman via Decision
Cue the decisions! For the second straight fight as a Welterweight Lombard looked very strong, but failed to put his opponent away. Lombard came under fire a little more in this bout then his last, but once again came away unscathed despite Burkman’s best efforts. Lombard versus the winner of Gastelum/ Woodley makes the most sense to me. Let Rory fight for the title after Lawler/Hendricks 3. That was a tough draw for Burkman, it is too bad he took some much damage as a bout with Matt Brown at UFN 60 would be great. Predictions 4-3 Props 2-4
- On a side not it was interesting to hear Rogan laud Lombard for his conservative style here, after criticizing him for fighting a very similar bout versus Shields. Typical.
Kyoji Horiguchi def. Louis Gaudinot via Decision
The Japanese flamethrower wasn’t able to put Gaudinot away, but he took a pretty confident win on the scorecards. He has continued to show improvement and is working his way to a future title shot, but isn’t quite there yet. A bout with John Moraga would be a good indication of where he stands as a contender. For Gaudinot, I would love to see him rematch John Lineker if he falters against ‘Uncle Creepy’. He owns a win over Lineker, but considering where the two are ranked, a second bout isn’t that out of the ordinary. Predictions 5-3 Props 3-4
Brad Tavares def. Nate Marquardt via Decision
One fighter is still on his way up and the other is, well…not. Tavares outclassed Nate from start to finish and added a solid name to his resume with a hard fought decision win. Nate got the worst of the striking exchanges, including a revisit to the brutal leg kicks he endured against T-Saf, and failed to bring his grappling into the bout. Tavares versus the Brunson/Herman winner would work for me and Nate versus the loser is workable as well. Unfortunately, I was bested here on another scenario that has been pretty consistent in the past.
Donald Cerrone def. Myles Jury via Decision
Cerrone broke Jury right away in the fight when he countered the formerly undefeated fighters TDA with an immediate sub attempt and turned the position into one that favoured the ‘Cowboy’. From then on out it was all Cerrone, with Jury attempting to avoid damage without delivery much of his own. Up next for Cerrone he should look for a fight with…oh wait he’s got a fight with Benson Henderson in 2 weeks (from writing this). Myles needs a step back and Jorge Masvidal would be a great bout for both men.
Jon Jones def. Daniel Cormier via Decision to retain LHW Title
Cormier had his moments, but they were far and few between with Jones limiting DC’s offensive output, while landing the far more significant strikes. Cormier did enough on each judges’ scorecard to earn the nod in one round, but nothing more. The big story of the fight came in the second half when Jones scored multiple takedowns on a tired Cormier and while DC was able to temporarily take Jones down once it was inconsequential. The bad blood wasn’t squashed at the end of the fight and with a couple of decent wins by Cormier he could earn a return engagement. A bout with the loser of Davis/ Bader is a nice rebuilding block for Daniel. For Jones, the winner of Gus/ Rumble is up next. Which is too bad as Gus vs Jones, followed by Jones vs Rumble (if Jones retains) would make for a solid rest of 2015 in the LHW title scene.
For the first time in a while all of my Betting Scenarios were busted. I won’t go into detail, but I will look at it from this angle; when consistent betting trends come up short like they did at UFC 182, hit them hard again because the numbers suggest that an upturn is right around the corner.
We live and we learn. I went 5-6 and made some poor prediction choices that up until this card I had avoided over the last few shows. The bet pack is posted below, take a look if you must. There is only one way to go from here in 2015 and that is up (right?).
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Cody Garbrandt $2.85 =================================================== Price: $2.85 x Bet: $100 Payout: $285 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Nate Marquardt $1.77 Selection 2: Dufresne/ Selection 3: Castillo/ =================================================== Price: $8.63 x Bet: $100 Payout: $863 =================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Akhmedov/ Selection 2:Daniel Cormier $2.53 =================================================== Price: $5.82 x Bet: $100 Payout: $582 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Jared Cannonier $3.00 Selection 2: Omari Akhmedov $1.70 Selection 3: Horiguchi/ Selection 4: Lombard/ B =================================================== Price: $16.57 x Bet: $100 Payout: $1657 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Myles Jury $2.71 Selection 2: Nate Marquardt $1.77 Selection 3: Castillo/ Selection 4: Daniel Cormier $2.53 =================================================== Price: $20.76 x Bet: $100 Payout: $2076 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Nate Marquardt $1.77 Selection 2: Dufresne/ Selection 3: Castillo/ Selection 4: Akhmedov/ =================================================== Price: $19.85 x Bet: $100 Payout: $1985
Alexis Dufresne $1.58 vs
Dufresne came in with some high praise, but her inability to make weight and her subsequent gassing cost her her debut fight and a whole lot more. The long and short of it is that if she comes into this fight in proper condition she should smash her opponent with ease. Reneau is making her debut off of a series of victories against opponents with limited to no experience. Her success hinges upon out grappling a very strong grappler and unless Alexis gasses its not going to happen. At $1.58 Dufresne is worth working into a parlay, but probably not the Gold section because of her cardio issues. I am also considering this as a legit candidate for the Under based on the numbers, check the prop section for more.
Omari Akhmedov $1.70 vs
The line has dropped on this one some, but Omar is still a solid bet. Nilsson is the type of fighter that thrives against opponents with well below average defensive wrestling, but anyone that is capable of defending his advances is in the driver’s seat. That is where Akhmedov should be for most of this bout. At this price or even anything above $1.50 I plan on throwing him into my parlay in the Gold section. Just like the first bout of the night I think this one has great potential to hit the under and will do some more research and post my findings in the prop section.
Evan Dunham $1.22 vs
This is a fight that I have limit interest in betting, at least from the standpoint of picking a side. Dunham should win, but considering he has lost 3 straight bouts the price is garbage. Honestly, its a garbage line for a guy having won 3 straight fights. I might consider a play on the total here, but should this bout not make my bet card in any capacity I wouldn’t be shocked.
Shawn Jordan $1.46 vs
This fight most likely won’t require the judges. Both guys throw hard and the numbers tell us that Jordan’s chin is a point of vulnerability. Cannonier is relatively untested, but beating Tony Lopez is a starting point. Speed kills at HW and it should create opportunities for Cannonier to test Jordan’s chin. I wouldn’t be that shocked to see Jordan get taken down either as Cannonier has some grappling skills. With the newcomer not shy on throwing heavy leather and Jordan looking a little gun-shy and very hittable over his last 3 bouts I will take a shot on the underdog here. I won’t be throwing the new guy down in the Gold plays, he either gets the call for a single bet in the Silver or potentially bronze section.
Marcus Brimage $1.43 vs
When I watched Garbrandt in action I was impressed. He has power in hands, throws some solid kicks, and can wrestling. His top game is alright and he works his takedowns better from in close, but I like what I see. Couple this info with the fact that he is training now with Team Alpha Male and we could have ourselves a nice little prospect on our hands. Brimage is no slouch and is a tough test for a newcomer. But he seems to lack something in his game- his power is so-so and his aggression/ killer instinct seems to be lacking. Adding to my concern is his lack of a solid offensive wrestling game. Dimensions and development are keys to success in the modern MMA game and Brimage isn’t showing me what I want to see for a guy that has spent most of his short career inside the Octagon. Octagon jitters are a real thing and if Garbrandt struggles against the first opponent that will most likely not be dismissed after just a round and bit- he could falter. He is the dog for a reason. Based on his short career, debut, and tough first opponent he is most likely getting knocked down to the Silver section, but a single bet is the way to go here.
Danny Castillo $1.49 vs
Felder looked good is his debut, but not great, considering he was fighting a guy in just his second UFC bout. Felder has made it clear that he doesn’t like to grapple. He stated in an interview that his favourite grappling technique is standing up- or something to that effect. That is not a big confidence booster when you are headed into a bout with a wrestling heavy opponent like Danny Castillo. Castillo is a very stiff test for a large portion of the division and I get why Felder took this fight on short notice. A win makes some pretty big waves very early in his UFC run. I just don’t see him avoiding getting put on his back. Very few fighters have been able to fend off Castillo’s wrestling and strong top game and I see Felder becoming another victim. He struggled at times with a lesser wrestler than Castillo in his debut. Castillo looks like a strong candidate to be a leg on the Gold Parlay. A prop bet based on my system play is also on the table.
Hector Lombard $1.14 vs
Burkman has pulled off some solid upset in his return to prominence and we need to avoid being to hasty climbing on the Lombard war wagon. It wasn’t that long away (@ 185) that many were dismissing him as a legit contender. Oh how the winds can change. Would I suggest a small play on Burkman here? Yup. If he can use his speed and pick away at Lombard early, he could take control of the bout if the Cuban Aussie starts to slow down. I don’t feel that confident in his ability to pull it off, so if you are dealing with a limited budget then just pass on this fight. The other option here is the total and I do have a lean with a very playable line. More in the props section shortly.
Kyoji Horiguchi $1.18 vs
Much like our first fight of the PPV, a bet on the side that I predicted isn’t an option. Where I do consider Burkman a potential Counter bet play, Gaudinot is not. Unless he can get a hold of his neck and tap him, not that big of a stretch, but still not worth a play, he isn’t winning this fight. Horiguchi is quick, hits hard, and is the more diverse striker. His defensive grappling continues to improve and if he can get on top his thunderous GNP is wicked. I am putting some though into the total for this fight, but despite my predicted method of finish- I am still on the fence…for now.
Brad Tavares $2.20 vs
Much like how I stumbled upon other similar betting scenarios/trends, I found that relates to this fight. I can’t recall off hand which bout it was, but I recently lost a fight betting on a slight dog in the $2.15-$2.25 range. The favourite was around $1.70ish and I commented to myself that I seemed to frequently lose these types of fights where I play the slight dog and they don’t come through. So I though, lets look into it. Over the last 12 or so events there have been 26 favourites that paid in the range of $1.66 up to $1.85. After going through my records, of the 26 fights that fell into this scenario, the favourite won 20 times (77%). Obviously, this is just an small sample size and the fight has to be fought inside the cage, but I found this interesting. Are the oddsmakers trying to entice us to play the dog my making the line a little closer together and visually not as much of a risk? I don’t know. I will be curious to see how this one plays out and how the scenario holds up going forward. If I remember this, I will block this info out of the Bet Pack review to keep this type of potentially profitable information available only to my customers. As for the fighters and the punching and stuff, I was on Tavares initially. He hasn’t look that out of place in his last 2 bouts, beating Boetsch until he got caught and sticking it out with Romero where others have failed. I still think Nate’s striking and superior grappling game will win out. His chin scares me though. Look for Tavares to tie up and give Nate chances to counter, take the better position and go to work. Until this trend starts to pile up the dollars I will play Nate in the Silver section as a parlay leg.
Donald Cerrone $1.54 vs
It is hard to say that this is a MUST WIN fight for a fighter on the type of streak that Cowboy is currently enjoying, but it is. For him to climb this far and then get set back by a talented, but still up and coming fighter like Myles Jury- it would be devastating. Look at the guys that have halted his previous momentum; Pettis- earned a title shot and won LW title, Diaz- earned a title shot, Dos Anjos- earned a future title shot. He has been here before and things have not gone well. There are some guys that mentally can’t get other the hump, and maybe Donald is one of them. What I did see in the my research is that he is a flawed fighter that takes a lot of damage, but if he can land something impactful and change the bout in his favour he can win. He did against Miller, Alvarez, and Barboza and he didn’t against Nate, RDA, and Pettis. Jury does a great job of limiting damage on the feet and he has a good top game that could replicate the success that RDA had with ground Cerrone. I am leaning towards Myles making the cut as a Gold Single bet, but considering the quality of his opponent he will most likely slip to the Silver section.
Jon Jones $1.61 vs
This is a big fight, it is also a fight where you are getting about as good of odds on ‘Bones’ as we have ever seen. If he gets through this with the belt, I will be curious to see how the line looks for a possible Jones/ Gus 2 bout. Not counting Rumble out, just saying. What I see here is that Jones seemed flustered when he could gain a grappling/wrestling advantage over Gus. When he couldn’t take him down and then was taken down, he seemed to lose a little something. Cormier should be more then capable of re-creating that scenario and then some. He is by far the best wrestling Jones will have ever encountered inside the cage and that should show up. Cormier has some things to prove and I would have really like to have seen him take on Rashad Evans or even Phil Davis before getting this shot, but here we are. Cormier is a solid dog play, but again like I mentioned above- the quality of opponent prevents him from being a Gold play. Single bet in the Silver section is one option or doubling him up with another strong paying play will work as well.
1. Danny Castillo $1.49
2. Kyoji Horiguchi $1.18
3. Omari Akhmedov $1.70
4. Alexis Dufresne $1.58
5. Evan Dunham $1.22
6. Hector Lombard $1.14
7. Nate Marquardt $1.77
8. Cody Garbrandt $2.85
9. Myles Jury $2.71
10. Daniel Cormier $2.53
11. Jared Cannonier $3.00
1. Cody Garbrandt $2.85 // I did suggest him as a Silver play because he is low on experience and debuting, but I think his price his so high simply because he is a relative unknown and as a result there is some solid value there.
2. Omari Akhmedov $1.70 // He should be able to overmatch his opponent on the feet and neutralize his attempts to get this fight to the ground.
4. Myles Jury $2.71 // Cerrone has looked like a killer, but he has a history of stumpling at the doorstep of a title shot and that is here he is now. Jury won’t get pulled into his run and gun style and limits the impact of Cerrone’s striking while mixing in a little ground work.
5. Daniel Cormier $2.53 // Facing the most dominant champion in the division’s history pushes Cormier to #5, but we saw that Jones was human against Gustafsson and the skillset of the challenger is another step up. Cardio needs to be there for DC, but I he takes its.
N.B. Marquardt just missed the list due to his chin and the slump he just got out of. Cannonier is debuting and the Heavyweight power factor is too risky. Akhmedov/Nilsson Under 1.5 could be on the list and if Omari to win were to drop to sub $1.60 the Under is certainly a playable option instead.
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
1. Josh Burkman $6.70 // Burkman has been defying the odds of late and I am still not sold on Lombard’s cardio if his opponent can push him early.
The Value list for Counter Bets is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
* I am currently working on another section to add to the bet pack that will only be available to those that buy the bet pack and it will not be posted in the post fight review. It will focus on the various betting scenarios that I have developed. I will post the 2014 numbers, potentially go back and review previous years, and keep track of the current year’s success. Each scenario will be explained and the fights that fall into it posted. If there are sides or totals that I don’t feel warrant bets under a particular scenario I will provide explanations for them as well. Additionally, I will continue to look for future scenarios that can be added to the list.