UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso- Post Fight Dissension Breakdown & Bet Pack

Ryan Poli


UFC 178

Parlay Breakdowns

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Selection 1: Tim Kennedy $2.30
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Price: $2.30 x Bet: $100
Payout: $230
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Demetrious Johnson to Win by Decision $2.35
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Price: $2.35 x Bet: $100
Payout: $235
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Donald Cerrone $1.93
Selection 2: Dominick Cruz/
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Price: $2.71 x Bet: $100
Payout: $271
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Kevin Lee $1.43
Selection 2: John Howard $1.45
Selection 3: Tim Kennedy $2.30
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Price: $4.77 x Bet: $100
Payout: $477
 
Silver Plays
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Manny Gamburyan $2.80
Selection 2: Patrick Cote/
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Price: $5.13 x Bet: $100
Payout: $513
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Donald Cerrone $1.93
Selection 3: Cat Zingano/
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Price: $5.93 x Bet: $100
Payout: $593
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Tim Kennedy $2.30
Selection 2: Dustin Poirier/
Selection 3: Donald Cerrone $1.93
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Price: $7.33 x Bet: $100
Payout: $733
 
Bronze Plays
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Demetrious Johnson to Win by Decision $2.35
Selection 2: Tim Kennedy $2.30
Selection 3: John Howard $1.45
Selection 4: Dominick Cruz/
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Price: $10.98 x Bet: $100
Payout: $1098
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Donald Cerrone/
Selection 2: Manny Gamburyan $2.80
Selection 3: Kevin Lee $1.43
Selection 4: Dustin Poirier/
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Price: $12.10 x Bet: $100
Payout: $1210
 
WILDCARD
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Demetrious Johnson to Win by Decision $2.35
Selection 2: Tim Kennedy $2.30
Selection 3: Donald Cerrone/
Selection 4: Cat Zingano/
Selection 5: Patrick Cote/
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Price: $40.55 x Bet: $4055
Payout:
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Manny Gamburyan $2.80 vs Cody Gibson $1.53

There are a number if ridiculously lopsided betting lines for this card, so we will need to make good with what we have. Manny cutting to 135 should give him a strength advantage and if he can ground Gibson I think he can take this fight. Gibson ran into some trouble with Sterling putting him on his back and I think Manny will take him down and focus more on controlling him then going for subs. This should limit the chances for Cody to get back up. Cody gets a lot of credit for his quick knockout of Bedford, but I would have been more impressed with a longer drawn out victory. Don’t get me wrong I like Gibson and Manny hasn’t looked great of late, but I think he steals this with his top control. Most likely this play will fall into the Silver section as a single bet.

Jon Tuck $3.26 vs

Tuck is talented but his gas tank is just so limiting. I think Lee’s wrestling heavy attack wears him down and allows him to pull away from a tuckered out Tuck in the second half. From a betting perspective I think Lee works in a parlay in the $1.40 range. He has a nice little kick to him and he will most likely be part of the gold pack.

John Howard $1.45 vs

I took a serious look at Ebersole here, but I think that his odd style has played itself out. His last 2 opponents did a good job of remaining focussed and didn’t let the unorthodox stuff that Brian does, mess with their heads. Additionally, his long bouts of inactivity aren’t that encouraging either. Howard should be able to win this bout based on his power and volume. Story had a lot of success landing big power strikes, especially his kicks, and I think Doomsday will as well. Ebersole was unable to do anything that backed Story off, similar scenario here as well. With so many heavy favs populating this card I will most likely use Howard on a parlay in the Gold Section.

Patrick Cote $4.63 vs

Stylistically, I don’t see this as a good fight for Cote. Thompson’s superior striking arsenal will make landing that big fight changing punch very unlikely for Cote. If the Canadian tries to wrestle I see him attempting to close the distance from further out because of the kicking game of Thompson and having minimal success. Figure in that Cote’s chin hasn’t looked as bullet proof of late and there could be some potential for a knockout. I will take a look at the prop options here and get back to you below, but most likely Thompson lands into a parlay but the price isn’t that exciting so his inclusion will be limited.

Jorge Masvidal $1.29 vs

This line is terrible. Yes Masvidal should be the favourite, but by no means this heavy. As a result a small bet on Krause is warranted based purely on value. Masvidal tends to keep fights much closer then they should be and I could see this following that pattern. Lines like this one ruin entertaining fights, which this one should be. I will most likely consider playing Masvidal on a parlay because I do think he wins, but wouldn’t be against leaving him out in favour of the Over. I already said what to do with Krause, purely a value bet.

Dominick Cruz $1.24 vs

Dominick Cruz should win this fight, but Mizugaki is a much bigger threat then these odds would suggest. If Cruz has lost that movement even a little bit it could throw his entire game off. I won’t play this fight straight up, but I will consider a prop bet on the Over considering we are dealing with the final prelim bout and both guys are decision machines.

Cat Zingano $1.40 vs

Nunes was another dog I looked long and hard at but opted against. Zingano still has a lot prove with just one fight in the UFC, a fight that saw her dropped the first 2 rounds before rallying late. Nunes hasn’t exactly set the world on fire of late and isn’t that far removed from losing to Sarah D’Alelio. What my decision came down to was Nunes’s consistent struggles with grappling based fighters. She seems lost against anyone that can wrestle and that should be the case here. The layoff and mental state of Cat are all major concerns, but I think she executes much better this time around. Most likely she makes the cut as a Gold bet parlay pick, but could slip to Silver depending on the prop options.

Tim Kennedy $2.30 vs

This is my favourite play of the entire card. I really like Kennedy here. Yes Romero has looked fantastic, but his fights with Derek Brunson and to a lesser extent Ronny Markes stand out to me. In both bouts he was taken down with regularity and against Brunson he was mounted and totally out positioned on the floor. Kennedy is far better grappler then Brunson and I fully anticipate him taking Romero down and controlling him for long durations of the bout. When he is able to establish his takedown game, I expect it will make Romero far less aggressive when striking and diminish his cardio. I will play Kennedy as a Single bet in the Gold section.

Dustin Poirier $3.45 vs

Poirier has a real chance to win this fight, a much better chance then this line would indicate. The rumour that Conor has an injured hand is concerning, especially if this fight turns into a dog fight. Dustin gets hit way too much for my liking and unless he can find success with his grappling, I think he eventually gets cracked one to many times. The price isn’t great, but I still think that McGregor is worth a look as part of a parlay. I will most likely slip him down to the Silver section because of how dangerous his opponent really is.

Donald Cerrone $1.93 vs

The line continues to move here, but Cowboy is a bargain. Eddie is very talented, but I think that Cowboy is a bad matchup for him. Eddie appears to be a little on the chinny side and if he gets stunned even momentarily it will create the type of opening that Cerrone has used in the past to sink a fighting ending submission in. If Eddie uses footwork and keeps Cerrone moving backwards he could take this, but I like what I have seen from Cowboy in the end. I think Cerrone is worth a single bet, but I am also considering him as an option to pair with another lesser paying favourite in the Gold section.

Demetrious Johnson $1.08 vs

Not much needs to be said here, DJ is a no play at this price and I just don’t see Cariaso channelling his inner Matt Serra or TJ Dillashaw. I will look at the Over here as a playable option as many will expect DJ to put away such an undeserving challenger so there could be some value there.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Demetrious Johnson $1.08

2.

3. Dominick Cruz $1.24

4. Jorge Masvidal $1.29

5. Kevin Lee $1.43

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6. John Howard $1.45

7.

8. Tim Kennedy $2.30

9. Donald Cerrone $1.93

10. Cat Zingano $1.40

11. Manny Gamburyan $2.80

 


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Tim Kennedy $2.30 His top game pressure will simply be too much for Romero who appears vulnerable defensively. Wrestlers do not like being on their back.
2. Donald Cerrone $1.93 This could be his last run at a title if he falters again. There are a lot of guys that will pass him by with a loss, he shows up.
3. Demetrious Johnson to Win by Decision $2.35 A finish is possible, but I really expect to see Johnson landing fro the outside and eating up time with top control.
4. Manny Gamburyan $2.80 Desperate to remain relevant = cutting to 135 pounds. He needs a win and calls on his Judo to get the job done.
5. Cat Zingano/ $2.24 Lots of possibilities here. Cat by Sub, Cat by TKO on the ground, Nunes by knockout, Nunes by top position TKO just to name a few.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. $4.25 A small bet may be required here as he is simply being undervalued.
2. $3.36 If you aren’t willing to play on a long returning heavy favourite, the hard hitting Nunes may be an option for you.
3. Dustin Poirier $3.45 Conor injured? Poirier has faced far better comp and is more then capable of pulling this off.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Jon Tuck/

Patrick Cote/

Jorge Masvidal/

Dominick Cruz/

Cat Zingano/

Dustin Poirier/

Donald Cerrone/

Demetrious Johnson to Win by Decision $2.35- Cariaso is a tough guy and hard to finish. Not impossible, but difficult. He has made a career on the scorecards and while he has never gone 5 rounds, he should be capable of cardio-wise of doing so. Johnson should dominate, but I think it still goes the distance. For a heavy favourite, this is a valid option.