UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto- Post Fight Breakdown & the Bet Pack
UFC 177 will not be nominated for card of year, but we have certainly see lesser events from bigger names. While the UFC needs to take a long look at how they build future PPVs, this event wasn’t nearly the disaster that it was pegged to be based on the performances.
From a prediction standpoint, it was as good as it gets for me. I went 8-0 with multiple winning prop bets and massive payout across the board in the parlay section. Check out the pack below, but for now lets take a look at the in cage action.
To open the night’s action Chris Wade took home a quick win via modified guillotine choke over fellow UFC debutant Cain Carrizosa. Wade has a long way to climb up the stacked Lightweight division, but everyone starts somewhere. Predictions: 1-0 Props: 0-1
The Heavyweights took second stage and Anthony Hamilton took home a second round victory with cringe inducing sequence of body shots to the midsection of the fallen Ruan Potts. Potts’s performance or lack there of will most likely bring about his exit, and while Hamilton wasn’t that impressive a win in the thin Heavyweight division can go a long way. Prediction2: 2-0 Props: 0-2
In the final prelim bout of the night Derek Brunson used a dominant takedown and top control game to beat up and defeat Lorenz Larkin with clean decision win. This marked the 15th time in the last 21 fights that the final preliminary bout had hit the Over. Predictions: 3-0 Props: 1-2
Yancy Medeiros showed a new wrinkle to his game sinking in a submission and finishing late replacement Damon Jackson but reverse Bulldog choke. Jackson will get another chance at his appropriate weightclass and Medeiros will hopefully survive the post-fight drug test and move on to bigger and better things. Predictions: 4-0 Props: 1-3
Fight #2 on the main card was an interesting scrap that came to conclusion when the defensive liabilities of TUF Finalist Ramsey Nijem lead him to yet another knockout stoppage. Carlos Diego Ferreira is now 2-0 in the UFC with 2 finishes, he is still far from a finished product but he is off to a good start. Predictions: 5-0 Props: 2-3
In a pretty entertaining bout, Bethe Correia notched another Horsewoman onto her belt with a second round stoppage of Shayna Baszler. The long time vet falls to 2-8 in fights that go beyond the first round and may get another shot in the UFC, but her horrendous cardio will always overshadow her slick submission game. Correia picked up just the second finish of her career, but this predictor pushed the Under on the total paying out at more then 3 to 1. Sorry, I had to brag. Predictions: 6-0 Props: 3-3
In the co-main even hometown hopeful Danny Castillo capitalized on a couple mental lapses on the part of Tony Ferguson, but his lack of activity from top position and inability to accomplish much on the feet gave the win to Ferguson. Castillo clearly was upset with the decision, but it correct. Ferguson needs to make better decisions as he was walking away with the fight with his striking until a couple bad choices brought Castillo back into the scrap. Predictions: 7-0 Props: 4-3
The final fight of the night wasn’t what it was planned out to be, but Joe Soto did his best to hang with the champion. TJ Dillashaw was never behind or at risk, but he did take some damage prior to putting a stamp on his first official title defense. Soto will slide back down the ranks in competition, but fighting at that level is a great experience even for a veteran fighter. TJ has a couple of options now that Barao has been removed from the immediate title picture, rematch with Raphael Assuncao could be up next or the winner of Dominick Cruz/ Takeya Mizugaki. Predictions: 8-0 Props: 5-3
Overall the night had some fun fights and at the very least it also helped further build towards a possible rematch between the current and former champions. There is no such thing as bad press. Another positive was the perfect prediction record from yours truly and a very profitable night that saw the parlays produce $3640 in winnings with only 2 parlays that didn’t cash. Take a look below and remember UFC Fight Night 50 takes place this Friday- don’t miss out.
When its broke, or at least not paying out like it should be, its time to fix it. Instead of putting together Parlays based on what type of bettor you might be, we are going to rank each parlay/ single bet based on 3 things- Value, Risk, and Confidence. It will be up to you to decide which plays you feel like making and which ones you are going to pass on.
Not all events are created equal when it comes to betting. On some nights there are simply more opportunities to make money or plays that I feel more comfortable with than others.
Keep in mind this is gambling- there is massive risk involved any time you lay money on the line and with the unpredictability of a sport like MMA it only makes it tougher. All we can do is prepare ourselves to the fullest extend and make bets that we feel good about. Let’s make some money!
GOLD- Bets posted in this section will have a solid payout, involve moderate risk, but my confidence level will be high. Single bets and 2-3 fight parlays, potentially the odd prop bet.
SILVER- Bets posted in this section will have a solid to slightly higher payout, but will involved a little more risk and while I am confident enough to post these bets, I do see where we could go wrong. Single bets, 3-4 fight parlays and prop bets. More Underdogs involved.
BRONZE- Bets posted in this section will normally have the highest payouts, but also involve the most risk. Major Underdogs, larger parlays, and higher risk prop bets.
WILDCARD- This section will include bets only to be made if you have some extra cash. Most posts in this section will be long shots to hit or at least have a lot of working parts involved, but if they do the win the payout will be significant.
=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Yancy Medeiros $1.95 =================================================== Price: $1.95 x Bet: $100 Payout: $195 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Bethe Correia $1.75 =================================================== Price: $2.63 x Bet: $100 Payout: $263 =================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Lorenz Larkin/ Selection 2: Yancy Medeiros $1.95 Selection 3: TJ Dillashaw to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $1.75 =================================================== Price: $5.12 x Bet: $100 Payout: $512 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: =================================================== Price: $1.81 x Bet: $100 Payout: $181 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Cain Carrizosa/ Chris Wade Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.58 Selection 2: Tony Ferguson/ Selection 3: =================================================== Price: $4.83 x Bet: $100 Payout: $483 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Bethe Correia/ Selection 2: Ramsey Nijem/ =================================================== Price: $7.93 x Bet: $100 Payout: $793 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Yancy Medeiros $1.95 Selection 3: Bethe Correia $1.75 Selection 4: Selection 5: Chris Wade $1.83 =================================================== Price: $16.96 x Bet: $100 Payout: $1696 =================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Bethe Correia/ Selection 2: Yancy Medeiros $1.95 Selection 3: Selection 4: Tony Ferguson/ Selection 5: Ruan Potts/ =================================================== Price: $36.82 x Bet: $100 Payout: $3682
Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns
Cain Carrizosa $2.15 vs Chris Wade $1.83
A bit of a tough fight to call considering the lack of recent information we have on Carrizosa. What we do know is that he willingly, too willingly at times, gives up position to pursue submission opportunities. If he is unable to seal one off then Wade should be able to hold the superior permission and gain some big points with the judges. Aggression can help a fighter to outwork his opponent, but it can also create openings. This bout has potential to be an EPU, but I’ll take a shot here with the favourite who has more fights, fights out of a better camp, and has faced better competition. Because of the uncertainty Wade slips down to the bronze package as part of parlay.
Ruan Potts $2.80 vs
Neither man looked good in their debuts, but expect one to turn it around here. I just don’t see Potts as UFC ready coming out of the very much still developing South African fight scene. He needs to get this fight to the ground, but Hamilton’s size and defensive wrestling should prevent that from happening. Obviously, anything can happen at Heavyweight and one punch can turn a fight on its head but Hamilton should take this. At $1.50 he has some decent value to work with for a parlay, teetering between Silver and Gold- leaning towards Gold and the Total seems like an appropriate bet as well but time will tell.
Lorenz Larkin $2.18 vs
I was leaning towards Larkin here for quite a while, pretty much right up until I got to the final paragraph of my breakdown. I then looked at my analysis and realized that this was an example of me reaching for a prediction and ignoring the obvious counterpoints to make my pick. Once in a while this works out, but not that often so I promised myself that I wouldn’t do it again or at least to do it less. Brunson’s wrestling and busier striking game should carry the day here. I am concerned that he slows in fights and Larkin does seem to get a little stronger or at least in his grove as times passes. But I just don’t see Lorenz being able to stop him late. Brunson has looked much better and has the tools to short circuit Larkin’s attack. I like the value here, I might consider a single bet on Brunson with so few major plays available. I also like the over here as the final prelim bout regularly goes the distance and I’ll explain more in the prop section.
Yancy Medeiros $1.95 vs
Yancy had some difficulty making weight and as of writing this he still hadn’t got there yet. Unless he breaks his body down significantly trying to make the limit, he should have no problem stuffing the smaller Jackson’s attempt to get the fight on the mat. I like distance to play a massive role and if Damon can’t cut inside of it without taking damage that is going to cost him significantly. While this card continues to deteriorate, there are some solid plays here from a betting standpoint and Medeiros is one of them. I like him for a single bet and it could be my biggest straight up bet of the card.
Ramsey Nijem $2.77 vs
This is a fight that I am a little leery of. CDF wasn’t exactly running over top level guys before he signed and Colton Smith isn’t exactly a win to hang over the mantle either. He is a super talented BJJ player, but that doesn’t always translate to immediate success. Nijem is still very raw, but the tools are there and he is making strides. If he emerged with a victory that wouldn’t surprise me in the least. I see CDF being the better grappler, but he needs to be in top position and if not Nijem could grind him into exhaustion and take a decision. My lean here is for CDF to be used as a part of a parlay, probably in the Silver section, but depending on how everything else looks he could slide to Bronze.
Bethe Correia $1.75 vs
I expect to see Baszler come out gunning and try to land an early sub, if it doesn’t materialize, she will slow and Bethe takes control of rounds 2 and 3 for the win. Shayna is a solid vet with a dangerous submission game, but her cardio will be her undoing at the higher level. 2-7 after the first round. Whether Correia is the next level or not is another question. She beat a Julie Kedzie in a very close fight that ended in Julie’s retirement and then beat Jessamyn Duke who is still very green. Not an overwhelming resume, but everyone starts somewhere. I like Correia here and I think she grinds herself into a decision win. She is known for her ability to go the distance, not normally something to brag about but it works here and at $1.75 against a known gasser she is a solid parlay play.
Tony Ferguson $1.40 vs
With so many decent paying favourites on this card I am a little reluctant to make a straight up bet on the ‘co-main event’. Ferguson should be able to work his striking game and while I expect Castillo to take him down a couple of times, it won’t be frequent enough for him to close the deal. While I might consider using Tony on a Silver or Bronze parlay bet, I am leaning more towards a play on the total. Check the parlay section for my final decision.
TJ Dillashaw vs Joe Soto
The odds are not readily available for this fight yet, but we all know they will be astronomical and not worth a look. Could it be fun to bet on Soto and then if he pulls it out get excited about winning that dirty money, sure, but that is not why we are here. I would think the best option might be to play TJ by knockout as that is where the greatest talent gap is. I still don’t expect that it will offer much and will most likely be in the $1.75 range, maybe less.
Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)
1. TJ Dillashaw
3. Yancy Medeiros $1.95
4. Bethe Correia $1.75
6. Tony Ferguson $1.40
8. Chris Wade $1.83
Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||Yancy Medeiros||$1.95||Sure the struggle to make weight is a concern, but his opponent is coming in on short notice, making his debut, and moving up a weight class- all tough. He doesn’t have the flash of other picks that I have ranked #1 but he works here nonetheless.|
|2.||$1.81||Similar to the #1 play, the price doesn’t overwhelm you but he has all the tools to exploit his opponent who has really struggled the last 2 times out.|
|3.||Bethe Correia||$1.75||She has to survive those early moments, but after that her style is the perfect counter to the limited gas tank of her opponent.|
|4.||Tony Ferguson/ Danny Castillo Over 2.5||$2.00||My initial pick was Ferguson by knockout, but this fight sees like the type that many feel will end with a finish and instead goes to the scorecards. Ferguson could pick Castillo apart from the outside or Danny spends the entire fight on top of Tony and both ways ends with the judges’ call.|
|5.||Chris Wade||$1.83||Trying to avoid relying too heavily on prop bets, Wade has faced better competition and is better positional fighter then his adversary.|
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
With only 8 fights on the card I will provide a prop bet for each matchup, here we go!
Cain Carrizosa/ Chris Wade Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.58- A lot of times when new fighters get to the UFC and reach a new level of competition their finishing rate takes a nose dive. Additionally, I have Wade winning this bout and he has won the majority of his fights on the scorecards.
TJ Dillashaw to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $1.75- I am not sure where this odd will sit, but I hope nothing lower then this but it wouldn’t shock me. Soto’s greatest strength is on the mat so look for TJ to avoid that take it to him on the feet for a stoppage at some point inside the first 3, probably sooner.