UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida- Post Fight Breakdown & the Bet Pack

mARTIN pEDERSEN

Kevin Casey defeated Bubba Bush by TKO. This was an absolute assault!! Casey’s striking does appear to be getting better & those elbows to end the fight were brutal. Unfortunately we didn’t learn anything about Casey’s cardio but if he beats down every opponent like this then cardio will never be an issue.

Luke Zachrich defeated Guilherme Vasconcelos by unanimous decision 30-27, 30-27, & 29-28. Zachrich looked much better than what we saw from him on TUF years back & I look forward to seeing if he can keep this up in the future. Bomba probably needs to be cut so he can work the regional circuit & come back when he’s ready. Bomba has a ton of talent but he’s just not ready for the UFC.

Rob Font defeated George Roop by KO. Font looked amazing. He was patient & waited for his opening to land the big strike that ended the fight. I don’t know if Roop needs to move up or what but bantamweight fighters aren’t suppose to get knocked out as much as he does. The weight cut might just be too much & he’s pays the price by having a glass chin.

Bruno Santos defeated Chris Camozzi by split decision 29-28, 28-29, & 29-28. This wasn’t the most entertaining bout but Santos definitely controlled the fight. It’s probably time for Camozzi to get his walking papers.

Kenny Robertson defeated Ildemar Alcantara by unanimous decision 30-26 on all cards. All I have to say is WOW!! This was suppose to be a very close fight but Robertson absolutely dominated Alcantara for all 3 rounds. Robertson definitely impressed me & I would to see him get a bigger step up in competition in his next bout.

Urijah Faber defeated Alex Caceres by 3rd round submission. Faber did what he was suppose to do & was definitely the superior fighter but Caceres showed a lot of heart & promise. Despite the loss, I still think Caceres’s stock went up. Nobody expected Caceres to last that long with Faber. Caceres did have his moments & I think he deserves to fight someone ranked between 6-10 in his next fight. As for Faber, it all depends on the Barao/Dillashaw rematch. I still want to see Faber vs Cruz 3 but UFC will probably hold out until 1 of them gets the belt or both are basically eliminated from the title picture. I would love for that to be thrown together for UFC 176 but I don’t think Cruz can go yet & Cruz definitely needs to come back facing a lesser opponent considering the long layoff but I can dream.

Russell Doane defeated Marcus Brimage by split decision 29-28, 28-29, & 30-27. This fight was fairly close and went back & forth but it definitely wasn’t worthy of being on a PPV & neither man impressed me. What I remember most about this fight was seeing that I could no longer bet on the Struve/Mitrione fight & finding out that their bout was cancelled. So yeah…..

Uriah Hall defeated Thiago Santos by unanimous decision 29-28, 29-28, & 30-27. Anyone want to question Uriah Hall’s toughness now???? That broken toe that occurred in the 1st round was nasty. My favorite part was when Hall’s corner was telling the ref & doctors that his foot was already like that before the fight. Hall fought through the pain & was able to get the victory in a fairly entertaining fight. Santos definitely impressed me as well. We knew Santos had good striking but his cardio & chin definitely held up. I still think that Santos should be fighting at 170 but either way, I look forward to his next fight. As for Hall, it’s time to give him a top 15 opponent.

Stefan Struve vs Matt Mitrione was cancelled at the last minute due to Struve having a panic attack. I love watching Struve fight but his health should be #1 & if his heart won’t hold up then I hope he either retires or Dana refuses to give him a fight. I know Mitrione had to be disappointed but I would love to see him fight Derrick Lewis next & I could see that taking place within a month because Lewis should be 100% after his squash match victory at the TUF 19 Finale.

Ronda Rousey defeated Alexis Davis by KO. 16 seconds! Need I say more?? Nobody is in Rousey’s league! I would love to see her fight Holm because then maybe we would see an actual fight. I would also love to see her beat Cyborg just so the Rousey haters can shut up & the juicer can go back to where she came from. If there is a woman that can beat Rousey then she’s either not in the UFC yet or she’s young in her UFC career & not quite ready (Julianna Pena). At this point, I don’t even think Cat Zingano poses much threat to Rousey. She is the modern day young Mike Tyson before Cus D’Amato died.

Chris Weidman defeated Lyoto Machida by unanimous decision 49-45, 49-46. & 48-47. What a fight!! Definitely a Fight Of The Year candidate!! I think a lot of questions about Weidman got answered during this fight. Weidman easily won the first 3 rounds & had enough in the gas tank to hold in the championship rounds because Machida came out looking to finish the fight late. Round 4 was all Machida & I was getting nervous about my Weidman bet but he was able to win the 5th round despite an insane flurry by Machida towards the end. Next up for Weidman is Vitor & I hope they match Machida up with either Luke Rockhold or Jacare if he beats Mousasi.


UFC 175

Parlay Breakdowns

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1:
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Price: $2.05 x Bet: $75
Payout: $153.75
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1:
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Price: $2.67 x Bet: $75
Payout: $200.25
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: George Roop $1.54
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Price: $3.39 x Bet: $75
Payout: $254.25
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Rousey/ Davis Total Rounds Over 1.5 $2.11
Selection 2:
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Price: $3.55 x Bet: $75
Payout: $266.25
 
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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Struve/ $2.46
Selection 2:
Selection 3:
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Price: $6.54 x Bet: $75
Payout: $490.5
 
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Parlay #6
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Selection 1: Camozzi/
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Faber/ Caceres Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.20
Selection 4:
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Price: $17.22 x Bet: $75
Payout: $1291.50

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1:
Selection 2:
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Price: $5.48 x Bet: $50
Payout: $274
 
Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Faber/ Caceres Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.20
Selection 2: George Roop $1.54
Selection 3:
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Price: $5.70 x Bet: $50
Payout: $285
 
Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Rousey/ Davis Total Rounds Over 1.5 $2.11
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Camozzi/
Selection 4: Stefan Struve $1.65
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Price: $7.97 x Bet: $50
Payout: $398.50
 
Parlay #4
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Faber/ Caceres Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.20
Selection 3:
Selection 4: Hall/
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Price: $14.30 x Bet: $50
Payout: $715
 

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Faber/ Caceres Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.20
Selection 3: Struve/ $2.46
Selection 4:
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Price: $18.64 x Bet: $25
Payout: $466
 

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Parlay #2

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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Rousey/ Davis Total Rounds Over 1.5 $2.11
Selection 3: Camozzi/
Selection 4:
Selection 5: George Roop $1.54
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Price: $20.60 x Bet: $25
Payout: $515

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Kevin Casey $2.55 vs

Kevin Casey has a massive flaw that overshadows whatever technical ability he may have. His cardio or lack thereof. Granted he is dangerous in the opening round, but the right game plan can make that a non-factor. Bush is far from being a complete fighter and brings a similar skill set to the cage, probably with a bit better wrestler and not quite as good grappling. Neither man offers anything overwhelming on the feet either. So again what this pick comes down to is Casey gassing hard after the first round and if Bush can get the better of him in the first frame then all the better- but he really just needs to survive and make him work. This fight is flying in EPU territory, but I will take the risk. I like Bush in a parlay, nothing too crazy as he is still an unproven talent.

Luke Zachrich $2.55 vs

Bomba must have something going for him to get the call under his current circumstances. Additionally, he is one of those fighters that has taken some time after the show ended before making his debut and as a result I am expecting some bug strides out of him. Zachrich did not look good in his debut, not at all. A first round knockout is tough, a first round knockout inside the first 60 seconds is worse, and when you throw Ciao Magalhaes’s name into the mix as the deliverer of the knockout it further plummets you down the sh*t list of ways to make a debut. Most likely the loser of this fight is getting cut too boot. Zachrich’s strength is his submission grappling and he will be hard pressed to sub such a talented grappler. Addtionally, GV has better striking (that isn’t saying much) then Magalhaes so I could see him getting the better of the action on the feet. Similar to Bush, GV is untested, but has some value so playing him as a part parlay is probably the way to go. The opening 2 fight picks are predicated more on the other fighter’s shortcomings then my picks’ abilities. Tread carefully.

George Roop $1.54 vs

I have gain a lot of respect for what George Roop brings to the cage, but it is still hard to back him in the role of the favourite. Font is an interesting case, he is cutting from Featherweight for the first time and has some solid wins over pretty decent regional talent. If he can plant one on Roop’s chin he could find victory or at least roll the complexion of the fight in his favour. I am just not convinced that he can land that big shot though. He is going to struggle to close distance and even when he does, I am not sold on his power at this level. For me I expect to see Roop moving a long, landing kicks and combos, and then shooting for a takedown Georgie boy will most likely never contend for a title, but I can see him carving out a nice spot for himself as a gatekeeper to the upper echelon. I like where Roop is price wise and he will most likely make the cut on a couple of different parlays. Chris Camozzi $1.44 vs

Bruno Santos is a non-factor in the division. His striking is weak and his grappling game is far from the level that it needs to be at to ride it to the top. Camozzi isn’t exactly a firecracker in his own right, but he did put together a nice string of wins and at level that is nothing to sneeze at. Chris should win this fight, but the more and more I think about this one I could see Santos working his ground game and holding top position just enough to take home the win. Camozzi has been taken down in the past and while I highlighted the fact that he is 3-1 in bouts where he was taken down at least twice, that’s not a stat you want to hang you hat on. I would really like to see Chris climb in to the mid $1.50’s, but that is not going to happen here. I will still use him in at least one parlay, but I and trending towards 2 other playable options that make more sense. Most books have the Over/Under set at 2.5 (no shock there) and the price is at $1.40. While this could be one of those fights that shocks everyone and ends early I doubt it. With each mans combined history of fights going to the judges, taking the Over 2.5 might be the best option. The other play to consider (it is not always available on most books) is Camozzi by decision. It is currently sitting over $2.10 depending on where you shop and at that type of value I have no problem upping his inclusion level.

Kenny Robertson $2.38 vs

This could be a interesting or it could be that one fight on the card that everyone sleeps through or goes and gets another piece of pizza and a beverage during. Alcantara is solid, not always pretty to watch, but solid. His striking works and I like his knees if he can get them going. His ground game is probably his strongest attribute as long as he can maintain top position. For Roberston, he is decent grappler and can strike- but nothing overwhelming. He has been dominated on the ground before, but by some pretty decent fighters. Robertson’s last 3 wins have all come inside the distance and so far Alcantara has survived guys with more power and more dangerous submission fighters. The end result could be close, but I just see the quality of Ildemar’s attack being superior to what Robertson can muster. Keep in mind, Kenny lost a decision to Sean Pierson. Although he almost stopped him in the third, he got out worked by him through the first 2. Alcantara will probably find a place on multiple parlays both with 2 and 3 fighters.

Urijah Faber $1.13 vs

At this current incarnation these odds are unplayable. No way do I see Caceres beating Faber. I picked him over Pettis, but Faber does just too many things well for him to lose here. It would be an interesting storyline if Urijah were to lose in the wake of his teammate finally besting Nova Uniao and bringing a title to TAM. He has held onto his standing for so long as a title challenger hoping that someone with a more beatable skill set would ascend to the thrown. Now someone has, unfortunately its a member of his team, but all that would go away if he drops this one. The long and short of it here is that Faber is pretty much untouchable in non-title fights. He is the non-title champion. He has also picked up submission wins in 12 of his last 14 triumphs. Moreover, he has submitted a number of guys that had never been submitted or have been submitted only once or twice- Assuncao, Mizugaki, Bowles, McDonald, Jorgensen, Menjivar, and Cruz. Do you see what I am driving at here? If you don’t please see the prop section below. Marcus Brimage $1.78 vs

This is a line I really like, even now, unfortunately ever since it was set it has steadily plummeted for those of us backing Doane. Brimage has been on the shelf for a long time and is making his divisional debut. Additionally, his UFC wins are not that great. He beat a fellow TUFer in a win or go home bout, he upended Maximo Blanco who spent the entire fight waiting for the final bell so he could execute some ridiculous gymnastics routine, and finally he fought Jim Hettes who forgot that his bread and butter is judo and submission fighting, not catching punches with his face while trying to land some ridiculous short range counter right hook. Clearly I picked Hettes in that bout, like the majority of the world did, and still had some left over anger. It is gone now. I like Doane here. He is the more diverse striker, but more importantly then that I love his ground skills. He Survived and then took it to an accomplished BBJ Black belt. He pulled off a couple of solid reversals and then put him to sleep. That doesn’t get done everyday. Doane is the better fighter plain and simple and he has value on his side. I love this play as a single bet and will also throw him into a parlay for sure.

Uriah Hall $1.25 vs T

Ah hell no! Here we go again Uriah Hall is a massive favourite. I will take a massive pass. In fact, I may even consider a bet on Santos. I was close to take Thiago here, as he will benefit just as much from facing a striker as Hall will. If Hall has one of those ‘I just want to hug, high five, and smile after every missed spinning back kick’ type of mentalities on this night then he could very well lose pretty convincingly. He beat Chris Leben, on the stools no less. Does that warranted him as a massive fav over a guy that just pulled off a pretty solid first round stoppage win over a decent opponent? No. There are 2 plays here, both risky, but worth consideration. Play Thiago by himself and/or play the Over. I could see this fight lasting longer then most will anticipate. I have had success of late playing those type of plays that don’t make sense at face value and this is one of them. Just to review; putting money down on Mr. Hall- that’s a hard no. Stefan Struve $1.65 vs

This card seems to have a number of these midrange favourites that give us some value and Struve is another one. Stefan has a major question mark, check that, 2 major question marks hanging over his head. The first is his chin. Up until Hunt obliterated his jaw it appeared that he had improved his defensive game, but it appears to still be a vulnerability. Secondly he is coming off of a massive layoff with a concerning heart condition that threatened his career. Those are major concerns, but keep in mind for a young fighter this time away from the cage could lead to some major steps. For Mitrione his path to victory is threw his hands. He has to land one on the chin, which is something that he has been doing over the last couple of fights. Unfortunately, he hasn’t done it against the calibre that Struve represents. He has come up short on that level. The other drawback for Mitsy is his lack of a ground game. It has really only cost him one fight (sub lose to Schaub), but Struve is incredibly dangerous on the mat. When it comes down to it I am going to back the more well-rounded fighter and that is Struve. I plan to use him as part of a parlay, but there is also a prop bet I am really liking in this fight. Ronda Rousey $1.11 vs

Can’t play Ronda at this line, no way. Davis is a far greater threat to her then the double digit betting line would suggest. There was some thought put into the possibility of picking Davis and before it is said and I done I may even make a play on her. The real bet here is the Over/ Under. Unfortunately that is much easier then it appears. I got my last two O/U backwards, taking Tate Under and McMann over. We all know how that worked out. Comparing Davis to those 2 ladies to get a read on the total- her striking war with Sarah Kaufman would suggest she is more then capable of handling what Rousey can throw at her on the feet and she has never been submitted, so I could see her at least surviving the early stages. I am leaning towards over 1.5 and with it surpassing the $2.10 range on most site it seems like a sound bet to me.

Chris Weidman $1.73 vs

This is either the official start to the post Silva era or the Machida era part deux. Clearly I am backing on a rein of fire, with the Dragon kicking some all American a$$. Machida is the better striker and while Weidman took out Silva both times on the feet there are a lot of ifs and buts involved. No time to go into that now. The point is, Machida is going to clown with Weidman, he knows this could be his last shot at UFC gold and he won’t clown that opportunity away. He never clowns, last shot at gold or not- he is all business. Weidman needs to get this fight to the ground with consistency and finish the fight, early. If Machida can force him to work he will slow and Lyoto will pick him apart for a decision or potential knockout. From a betting standpoint, I am of course on Lyoto to take this fight home for a decent sized single bet, maybe inclusion one parlay- but the single bet is priority one.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Urijah Faber $1.13

2. Ronda Rousey $1.11

3.

4.

5. George Roop $1.54

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6.

7. Chris Camozzi $1.44

8. Stefan Struve $1.65

9. Uriah Hall $1.25

10.

11.


 

Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. $2.05 I wouldn’t be shocked to see Doane as the favourite come fight time, so jump on this while you can.
2. $2.20 Faber by submission, when/if posted, will be a solid pay as well. Look for the early tap.
3. Lyoto Machida $2.67 Machida is the biggest test of Weidman’s career, yes Silva included, remember this guy just broke into double digits in total fights.
4. Rousey/ Davis Total Rounds Over 1.5 $2.11 Davis might not be able to win this fight, but I think she can get you the over here.
5. Struve/ $2.46 It could end early, so we are getting some value here. But Struve is a slow starter and just like the Arlovski/ Schaub fight both guys knowing the others finishing capabilities will come out a little cautious.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. T $4.63 At this price I think that this is an excellent bet and should be considered. Hall is way to inconsistent and mentally uncertain to be this big of a favourite over another talented striker.
2. $10.17 Really? Is Davis missing a limb or fighting with a blindfold? I don’t think any of Ronda’s recent opponent’s have been this big of an underdog. The books are banking on the general public only know one name in women’s MMA. Davis won’t give up her long awaited shot without a fight.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up. Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic. Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10. The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line. There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Kevin Casey/

Chris Camozzi/

Urijah Faber/

Uriah Hall/ T

Stefan Struve/

Ronda Rousey/