UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw- Post Fight Breakdown & the Bet Pack

mARTIN pEDERSEN

 

UFC 173 was definitely a wild & crazy event that had a little bit of everything except for a screw job. I will quickly give a recap of every fight. I went 8-4 but I don’t know of too many people that did all that well. Barao really killed my big parlay.

Li Jingliang defeated David Michaud by split decision 30-27, 29-28, & 28-29

I had Li & felt that he was very smart by finishing the last 6 weeks of his camp in Vegas. Li had a lot more power than I thought he had & I felt that he easily won this fight. I did get nervous  for the rest of the night after 1 judge gave the fight to Michaud because there was no way that Michaud won more than 1 round. I had it 29-28 Li but felt that at least 1 judge would give Li all

 

3 rounds because he clearly did more damage & was the better fighter.

Sam Sicilia deated Aaron Phillips by unanimous decision 30-27, 29-28, & 29-28

The judging in this fight also made me scared for the rest of the night. I bet on Phillips but the was no way that he even won a round. Phillips definitely showed flashes & if he continues to improve then he could be a force in the future. Sicilia was the more dominant fighter & deserved the victory.

Vinc Pichel defeated Anthony Njokuani by unanimous decision 30-27, 30-27, 29-28

Njokuani got absolutely owned & looked terrible in this fight. Maybe it was the 13 month layoff but he has been diminishing & maybe this should be it for him. Another head scratcher by 1 judge because there is no way that Njokuani won a round. In fact, round 2 should’ve been 10-8 in favor of Pichel because he was that dominant. This fight was all Pichel & hopefully this leads to a bigger fight.

Mitch Clarke defeated Al Iaquinta by 2nd round darce choke

This was the 3rd upset in the 1st 4 fights but this was by far the biggest shocker of night besides the main event. Iaquinta was absolutely dominating this fight until Mitch Clarke quickly locked in the choke from his back & surprisingly finished the fight. This should be a learning lesson for Iaquinta because there’s no way he should’ve let that happen but I will give credit to Clarke. Clarke looked dead in the water before he pulled that out of nowhere.

Chris Holdsworth defeated Chico Camus by unanimous decision 30-27 on all cards

This was an absolutely dominating performance by Holdsworth. I like the fact that he couldn’t get the finish because he’s never gone to the judges before & fights like this will only make him better. Holdsworth has a very bright future & I can’t wait to see him move up the Bantamweight ranks.

Tony Ferguson defeated Katsunori Kikuno by 1st round TKO

Ferguson used his reach advantage & Kikuno really couldn’t get inside with his offense. A very dominating & easy victory for Ferguson. Hopefully this leads to a bigger fight for Ferguson. Maybe Krause??

Michael Chiesa defeated Francisco Trinaldo by unanimous decision 30-27, 30-26, & 30-26

People really need to stop sleeping on Chiesa! He absolutely owned Trinaldo like no man has ever done. Trinaldo tried to use his power but Chiesa seemed to be 1 step ahead the entire fight & put on a clinic.

James Krause defeated Jamie Varner by 1st round TKO (injury)

I had Krause as a dog in this fight & he looked good but Varner deserves all the attention for this fight. I don’t know whether to call him an idiot or a real life gladiator. Either way, you can’t question his toughness. I’ve always questioned his fight IQ & he may have proven me right because no other man would’ve fought for over half a round with a broken leg. You know he did more damage by continuing to fight. He knew it was broken & I don’t understand why the ref didn’t jump in because he couldn’t walk on it & it looked nasty. But… Varner finished the round & was swinging for the fences. It was a very exciting 1st round because Varner knew that was his only chance. Unfortunately for him, it’s too hard to land big shots when you’re not mobile & your opponent is smart enough to attack the injury by directly kicking that leg or the opposite leg when Varner switched stances. Varner is now 1-4 in his last 5 but I GUARANTEE that Dana will give him another fight or 2 if he wants to come back after this performance.

On a side note. Maybe we should just eliminate refs, corner men, & doctors if they aren’t going to save the fighters from themselves. By not doing their jobs, they are putting the fighter’s quality of life at risk.

Takeya Mizugaki defeated Francisco Rivera by decision 30-27, 30-27, & 29-28

Mizugaki dominated this fight like I knew he should but I was definitely scared because you can’t trust american judges when it comes to asian fighters. Asian fighters have been screwed over so many times before that I was holding my breath during the decision. Rivera had no answer for Mizugaki & was simply outmatched. Rivera is very overrated & needs to improve his overall game because he is 3-3 when he can’t finish his opponent by KO/TKO.

Robbie Lawler defeated Jake Ellenberger by 3rd round TKO

Another big fight where Ellenberger is just too tentative & doesn’t show up. I bet on Ellenberger thinking that he learned his lesson against Rory but obviously he hasn’t. Dana just needs to get rid of Ellenberger. Dana got rid of Okami because he could never get over the hump & Okami is far better than Ellenberger. Lawler looked good but I would still rather see him fight another top star before getting a rematch with Hendricks. I want to see Lawler vs Matt Brown for the #1 conteders spot. Now that would be a war. Either that or face the winner of Lombard vs Stun Gun.

Daniel Cormier defeated Dan Henderson by 3rd round rear naked choke

I do believe that Cormier has done enough to earn a title over Gus getting rematch & I think that Cormier will beat Jon Jones if given the opportunity. Cormier absolutely ragdolled Hendo like I have never seen. Hendo really had no chance & this was an absolutely squash match.  Cormier used his smothering wrestling game to defuse the H bomb & I think he will do the same to Jones.

As for Hendo, his best days are far behind him & he obviously wants to continue to fight so I think he needs to either drop down to 185 or take on guys that would stand & bang with him at 205 like Jimi Manuwa. If he drops to 185 then I would love to see him face Yoel Romero but I fear he will get shoved into more big name fights & just get killed unless he can land the H bomb like he did against Shogun.

TJ Dillashaw defeated Renan Barao by 5th round TKO to become the new Bantamweight Champion

I was one of the very few people that felt Dillashaw could go the distance with Barao  but I have never been as shocked as I was to see Barao get dominated the way he did. I think it was pretty apparent that Barao got a concussion in the 1st round & just couldn’t recover. I personally feel that Barao should get his rematch at 179 in Brazil because he has been that dominant in the UFC & he’s basically already beaten everyone else. I give all the credit in the world to Dillashaw but I think Barao took him lightly & the remtach would have a very different result. Champions as dominant as Barao have almost always gotten their immediate rematch & to not do the same for Barao would be a slap in the face.

 


UFC 173

Parlay Breakdowns

In an effort to accommodate different styles of MMA Bettors I have compiled 7 different possible betting cards to help you maximize your profit depending on what style of gambler you are and how much money you want to allocate to each card.

Big Money Bettors- for players with a higher bankroll willing to put a lot of cash on the line to turn a profit and build a growing account, focusing mainly on single bets and well placed parlays.

Recreational Bettors- for players that will allocate a decent sized bankroll per event, but would rather spread out their bets and try and turn smaller investments into big returns with larger parlays.

For Fun Bettors- for players that are putting a little bit of cash on the line just to have a good time and have no problem playing a high risk parlay hoping to cash that big payday.

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Daniel Cormier to Win by KO/ TKO/ DQ $2.85
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Price: $2.85 x Bet: $100
Payout: $285
 
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Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1:
===================================================
Price: $2.20 x Bet: $50
Payout: $110
 
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Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1:
===================================================
Price: $3.89 x Bet: $50
Payout: $194.50
 
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Parlay #4
===================================================
Selection 1: Tony Ferguson $1.35
Selection 2: Anthony Njokuani $1.44
Selection 3: Takeya Mizugaki $1.63
===================================================
Price: $3.17 x Bet: $75
Payout: $237.75
 
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Parlay #5
===================================================
Selection 1: Tony Ferguson $1.35
Selection 2: Anthony Njokuani $1.44
Selection 3: Jamie Varner $1.56
===================================================
Price: $3.04 x Bet: $75
Payout: $228
 
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Parlay #6
===================================================
Selection 1: David Michaud $1.69
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Robbie Lawler $1.48
===================================================
Price: $5.91 x Bet: $50
Payout: $295.50
 
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Parlay #7
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Selection 1: Renan Barao to Win by KO/ TKO/ DQ $2.20
Selection 2: Takeya Mizugaki $1.63
Selection 3: Daniel Cormier to Win by KO/ TKO/ DQ $2.85
Selection 4: Anthony Njokuani $1.44
===================================================
Price: $14.72 x Bet: $100
Payout: $1472

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200

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Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Daniel Cormier to Win by KO/ TKO/ DQ $2.85
Selection 2: Anthony Njokuani $1.44
Selection 3: Tony Ferguson $1.35
===================================================
Price: $5.55 x Bet: $75
Payout: $416.25
 
Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Renan Barao to Win by KO/ TKO/ DQ $2.20
Selection 2: Robbie Lawler $1.48
Selection 3: Takeya Mizugaki $1.63
Selection 4: Jamie Varner $1.56
===================================================
Price: $8.29 x Bet: $75
Payout: $621.75
 
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2:
Selection 3: David Michaud $1.69
Selection 4:
===================================================
Price: $34.14 x Bet: $50
Payout: $1707
 

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Daniel Cormier to Win by KO/ TKO/ DQ $2.85
Selection 2: Renan Barao to Win by KO/ TKO/ DQ $2.20
Selection 3: Anthony Njokuani $1.44
Selection 4: Takeya Mizugaki $1.63
===================================================
Price: $14.72 x Bet: $25
Payout: $368
 

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Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Tony Ferguson $1.35
Selection 2: Robbie Lawler $1.48
Selection 3: Jamie Varner $1.56
Selection 4:
===================================================
Price: $6.86 x Bet: $25
Payout: $171.50
 
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

David Michaud $1.69 vs

I am going to call this one like I see it- in the footage I saw of both guys I wasn’t impressed. Fortunately, they are facing each other. The Chinese MMA scene is still very young and TUF China showed us that. For Jingliang he has been competing against better competition outside of his country, but this is another step up. What Michaud offers would be minimal against a previously established opponent, but not against a fellow debutant. Michaud should simply better wherever this fight goes and win this fight. This bout does have the potential to be another EPU, but I’ll take my chances. I certainly will not be going over the top on Michaud, but with his value I will work him into a parlay or 2.

Sam Sicilia $1.68 vs

I am done considering Sam Sicilia as a legitimate roster member. He likes to bang and as a result they are keeping him around. That is it. He takes part in exciting fights, usually losses them, but they are fan friendly and help to propel another roster member to the next level. Phillips is a pretty slick Muay Thai striker and should be able to take control of the fight as it progresses and Sammy slows down. The first round could be close, but that is where it ends. I’ll play Phillips as part of a parlay. I won’t throw down a single bet here simply because I want to see him in action before I invest, but as part of a parlay he is worth inclusion.

Al Iaquinta $1.28 vs

Clarke looked good in his last fight, but that was partially a product of his opponent looking so bad. It would appear that the promotion is trying to bring Al along slow and this fight fits the trend. Either way I won’t touch it at such a low number.

Anthony Njokuani $1.44 vs

I normally don’t get excited about a $1.44 fighter and guess I am not here, but I just don’t see what Vinc has to offer against Njokuani here. N-joe is too slick a striker and unless the layoff impact his performance he is going to cut Pichel up on the feet and completely shutdown everything he has to offer in the wrestling department. I will make Anthony one of my key parlay anchors on this card. Discussion over.

Chris Holdsworth $1.32 vs

I went with the big dog here. Holdsworth, as many people in the prediction game (anyone with a computer), has the ability to take this fight based on his grappling. Camus has had some difficulties against ground based opponents and the Alpha Male product is probably the best he will have faced to date. I don’t deny it could happen and I won’t be shocked to see Holdsworth with his hand raised at the end of the night. But, I am looking at this fight from a different angle. Yes, Chico has had some issues with grapplers, but he has also gone 3-1 against them. His wins over Pague, Kang and Meza should serve as great experiences and even his loss against Kimura will aid him here. I like Camus’s confidence, I like the way he can turn bad positions into good ones and I like his ability to steal close fights. Holdsworth is making his first appearance post TUF win, he has limited overall experience, and he is coming off a bit of a break. I’ll take the dog here and make a single bet on him for some solid cash money.

Tony Ferguson $1.35 vs

I plan on playing Fergie like Njokuani. He is going to be an anchor. He has a little less value then Anthony, but I feel he is even more tailor-made to defeat his opponent. A quick footed, volume striker with power and reach against an opponent that fights flat-footed and throws a lot of ones. Ferguson takes this fight outside of getting smack with one big hammer. Use him on your parlays and don’t hold back. In fact, I am looking to play him and N-Joe together with one other worthy candidate. Who I’m not sure yet you’ll have to check the parlay section or one of the following breakdowns that I haven’t written yet.

Michael Chiesa $1.83 vs

Here is another dog pick and it follows a similar story-line to the the Camus/Holdsworth pick. One guy is expected to sub the other and I am banking that he won’t. Trinaldo’s cardio is a massive concern, but I see his new strike first mentality aiding his success. If he can keep this fight standing and land some big shots I can seem him being more effective. His TDD is better then the numbers suggest and while just like Holdsworth I could see Chiesa sinking in a choke. I like how Trinaldo matches up with Chiesa and I put my money where my mouth is. A single bet for the big Brazilian is my play here.

Jamie Varner $1.56 vs J

Varner might be my guy to finish the 3 fight parlay I mentioned above. The numbers aren’t the most exciting we have ever seen, but they are solid. Varner’s wrestling and power should carry the day. Krause is far from a slouch, but he spends too much time on his back and while he is dangerous I expect Varner to be good enough to neutralize his guard. On the feet, the kicks of Krause could keep Jamie out range, but I have been impressed with his ability to cover distance and do damage when he does it. It should be an entertaining scrap and might even finish with a split, but I see Varner taking it in more scenarios then Krause. Parlay him up.

Takeya Mizugaki $1.63 vs F

This card is jumping with great value, but there are a few solid plays here. Mizugaki is one of them. I put some serious thought into playing Cisco, but I think Mizugaki beats him everywhere but in the power category. If Mizugaki can avoid the big shot early he should be able to out work Rivera in rounds 2 and 3. While Rivera is dangerous early, I expect that the short crisp striking of Miz will neutralize the long range power strikes that he often throws. Play Mizugaki as part of your parlays and I think he represents and excellent value to risk ratio so don’t hold back.

Robbie Lawler $1.48 vs

This is the last fight on the card that is worth making a straight up bet. Lawler needs to avoid the post title fight loss letdown, which is a real thing. If he does, he wins this fight. Lawler has the type of power that will make Jake hesitate in similar fashion to what Rory did. I would like to see Lawler limit the strikes absorbed to make the ones he landed even more significant. Lawler faired much better vs Hendricks then many anticipated and that should carry over here against a fighter who has a similar skill set, but is not as good. Simply put Lawler works in your parlays and I would give some consideration to a win by knockout adding to his value.

Daniel Cormier 1.13 vs

I won’t be betting on Cormier straight up, no value and he is untested at LHW. I don’t see Dan winning this so I won’t take a stab at him. My play here is, if any, is Cormier to win by knockout. I haven’t seen the line on it yet. If it does have value I will play it, but if its too low I’ll pass all together.

Renan Barao $1.14 vs

Could Dillashaw walk away with this one? Maybe. Unfortunately I don’t see him having any value and much like Cormier/ Henderson I only see one real option. I like a prop bet on Barao, possibly looking at a submission or knockout finish. I will check the value.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Renan Barao $1.14

2. Daniel Cormier 1.13

3. Tony Ferguson $1.35

4. Anthony Njokuani $1.44

5. Robbie Lawler $1.48

====================

6. Al Iaquinta $1.28

7. Jamie Varner $1.56

8. Takeya Mizugaki $1.63

9.

10. David Michaud $1.69

11.

12.


 

Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Daniel Cormier to Win by KO/ TKO/ DQ $2.85 Dan’s chin is gone and Cormier’s speed and striking variety, coupled with his power will lead to a big shot landing that Hendo won’t be able to deal with.
2. Francisco Trinaldo $2.20 This is a tough fight, Trinaldo’s physical capabilities will give Chiesa fits.
3. Chico Camus $3.89 Biggest paying dog on the card for me- he continually comes out of bouts against grapplers with wins, that will continue here.
4. Aaron Phillips $2.36 Sicilia’s chin and inability to not look for the KO costs him.
5. Renan Barao to Win by KO/ TKO/ DQ $2.20 This could probably be higher on the list, but there is a chance that Barao submits him here too.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. N/A
2.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Anthony Njokuani/

Al Iaquinta/

Tony Ferguson/

Takeya Mizugaki/ F

Robbie Lawler to Win by KO/ TKO/ DQ $2.45- Some decent pop here both in Lawler’s hands and the price. Ellenberger has been stopped before and Robbie throws heat. Look for him to engage early and often and eventually put a big crack in the juggernaut.

Daniel Cormier to Win by KO/ TKO/ DQ $2.85- Hendo’s chin is done, a knockout vs Belfort and a pair of near stoppages against Shogun is a perfect demonstration of that. Cormier lands and puts Hendo down, sometime in the middle of the fight. Nice value here.

Renan Barao to Win by KO/ TKO/ DQ $2.20- At this rate the main card will be over pretty quick. Dillashaw keeps it standing but gets caught by the better and quick striker inside the first 3 rounds.