UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira- Post Fight Breakdown & the Bet Pack

 Scott Johnson

The Champ is…still here. I think I have used that one before, but it still applies. Jon Jones reigned supreme in his Light Heavyweight title defense against formidable challenger Glover Teixeira, winning a unanimous decision across the board. The challenger showed heart, but came up short in his bid to supplant the champion.

Also on the main card a top 205 pound contender falls, a Middleweight contender makes a statement, and submissions and brutal knockouts are everywhere – let’s do this!

Chris Beal got his UFC career off to a good start, finishing Patrick Williams with a picture perfect flying knee early in the second frame. 0-1

Launching the televised prelims, Danny Castillo continued the trend of rebound wins. Charlie Brenneman appeared to edge out the first round before Castillo put a ‘Last Call’ on his consciousness early in round 2 with a beautiful right hand. 1-1

Improving to 2-0 in the UFC, Bethe Correia pulled off a mild upset over Jessamyn Duke. Winning by decision, the Brazilian promptly called out the remaining members of MMA’s version of the Four Horseman (woman?) headlined by the Ric Flair of MMA – Ronda Rousey. Wooo! 2-1

In a barn burner, Takanori Gomi scorched Isaac Vallie-Flagg taking the fight 29-28 on all 3 cards. After a slow opening frame, the Fireball kid upped his intensity and bludgeoned Ike’s face and turned him into a bloody mess. 3-1

Capping the undercard, Team Alpha Male’s Joseph Benavidez was in trouble early against the upset minded Tim Elliott. Before the round rounded out, JoeB went super hulk on Elliott and slapped on guillotine which elicited the always comical but frequently overlooked foot tap. 4-1

In one of the best fights of the night, Max Holloway went back and forth with highly touted prospect Andre Fili. Holloway started to take control in round 2 and ended the fight with a tap in round 3. At just 22 years of age, Holloway has now fought 8 times inside the Octagon with 5 wins. Fili is headed back to the drawing board. 5-1

Jim Miller made it 3 submissions in a row, when he slept late injury replacement Yancy Medeiros. Yancy took a shot at the big time, but Jimmy said ‘no bueno’ and sent him packing back down to the prelims. Miller then called out the entire up echelon of the Lightweight division. Miller vs Cowboy Cerrone is a fight that makes sense and could be strung together in the not too distant future. Joe Silva make it happen. 6-1

Holy rolling thunder Batman. Luke Rockhold made quick work of Tim Boetsch, countering, controlling, and submitting him with an inverted triangle kimura. After the fight he told Joe Rogan he wanted a rematch with post-TRT Vitor Belfort or Michael Bisping. Interestingly enough, fellow former Strikeforce Middleweight champion and rising contender Jacare Souza never crossed Luke’s mind of viable next opponents. Go figure. 7-1

At this point the wheels fell off the apple cart for my night of predictions. After contemplating taking Rumble, my ‘better’ judgement won out and I took Davis by decision on account of his wrestling and improved striking game. Neither of which showed up on this night. Anthony Johnson was dominant start to finish and sent Phil Davis tumbling back down the Light Heavyweight ranks. On an interesting side note, one of Johnson’s last wins in the UFC came over Charlie Brenneman, who fought early in the night at Lightweight. Yeah that’s 155 pounds. Rumble young man rumble. 7-2

In the main event, 205 pound overlord Jon Jones took on and took out baldheaded challenger Glover Teixeira. Coming off a performance against Alex Gustafsson that made him look human, many thought (including myself) that Glover would bring about the rebirth of the division. Not so, Johnny Bones battered his opponent and took the fight in close where many felt Tex would be strongest. Jones still did the lion’s share of the damage, landing brutal close range elbows. After the fight it was confirmed that Jones would partake in round 6 and possibly 7, 8, 9, and 10 against the big Swedish challenger.  7-3

From a prediction perspective, I started strong with a 7-1 record, but had my upsets backwards in the final 2 fights. The bet packs produced some decent winner, including taking Max Holloway and Jim Miller by submission, but there are always improvements to be made. Take a look at the pack below and that is all from me for now, thanks for reading.


UFC 172

Parlay Breakdowns

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $550

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Max Holloway $2.38
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Price: $2.38 x Bet: $100
Payout: $238
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1:
===================================================
Price: $5.61 x Bet: $75
Payout: $420.75
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Jim Miller to Win by Submission $5.05
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Price: $5.05 x Bet: $75
Payout: $378.75
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1:
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Jim Miller $1.50
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Price: $6.47 x Bet: $100
Payout: $647
 
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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Max Holloway $2.38
Selection 2: Phil Davis $1.54
Selection 3: Danny Castillo $1.38
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Price: $5.06 x Bet: $100
Payout: $506
 
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Parlay #6
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Selection 1: Takanori Gomi $1.54
Selection 2: Luke Rockhold/
Selection 3: Phil Davis/
Selection 4: Jim Miller $1.50
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Price: $7.18 x Bet: $100
Payout: $718

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Jim Miller to Win by Submission $5.05
Selection 2: Max Holloway $2.38
Selection 3: Danny Castillo $1.38
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Price: $16.59 x Bet: $50
Payout: $829.50
 
Parlay #2
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Selection 1:
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Phil Davis $1.54
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Price: $6.64 x Bet: $100
Payout: $664
 
Parlay #3
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Max Holloway $2.38
Selection 3: Jim Miller $1.50
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Price: $20.03 x Bet: $25
Payout: $500.75
 
Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Max Holloway $2.38
Selection 2:
Selection 3:
Selection 4: Luke Rockhold/
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Price: $17.03 x Bet: $25
Payout: $425.75
 

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Max Holloway $2.38
Selection 2:
Selection 3:
Selection 4: Jim Miller $1.50
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Price: $15.39 x Bet: $25
Payout: $384.75
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Jim Miller to Win by Submission $5.05
===================================================
Price: $28.34 x Bet: $25
Payout: $708.50
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Chris Beal $1.77 vs

EPU Alert. It hasn’t hit over the last 2 shows so it could be due. Beal has more luster with this TUF stint, undefeated record and run in BAMMA, but inside of the cage he appears to have less to offer. I think Williams will have a little more variety on the feet, but more importantly I think he gets his wrestling going and score some big TDS and top control time. Williams offers a nice little kick and would work well paired up with another decent paying fighter in a 2, maybe 3 fight parlay.

Danny Castillo $1.38 vs C

Brenneman had looked like a much improved fighter when he was outside of the UFC and fighting at 155, but that came to a halt upon his return. If he can get his work rate up to a point that Danny can’t keep up he could take the fight, but I just don’t see it. Castillo will thrive against a fighter that isn’t an top level striker like Barboza, Johnson, or Njokuani. He may even find some success with his wrestling, but one way or another he takes this home. Price wise he isn’t thrilling, but might work as the end of a 3 fight parlay. I am also looking at the Under.

Jessamyn Duke $2.00 vs

These odds are close and that isn’t shocking considering that the Public Picks are split pretty much down the middle. I think Duke is getting some play here because she was part of the Ronda Rousey season of TUF and her name has a little more pull. Additionally, Correia’s name has a little less. Beating Julie Kedzie, albeit in a close fight, is still a noteworthy accomplishment. That bodes well for Bethe. Duke’s length concerns me and so does Correia getting off to a slow start. I think she will eventually get it going and spend enough time in close and on the floor to nullify any reach advantage. With her near doubling value I think she works well with the likes of Williams, Davis, Miller, Gomi, even Holloway in some combo of 2-3.

Takanori Gomi $1.54 vs

I was hoping to get a little more pop with Gomi, but such isn’t the case. Gomi has been out for a year and is making the dreaded East to west trip. This makes me concerned considering IVF likes to try and outwork his opponents. If he can get it going early he could slow Gomi down. But, his game is predicated on aggression and Gomi showed he can deal with straight forward aggression using a low stance, pawing jab, and the threat of big power to keep them from getting too comfortable. This is it for Gomi. He needs to win here and one good thing for him is that IVF is very hittable. I wouldn’t be that shocked to see a massive right hook launch the American into next week. It also wouldn’t be out of the question to see Gomi sucking winding after a single round. Either way with only 10 fights, this bout does have some use. Gomi’s value isn’t bad for a parlay and the Over could be an option consider that both guys are hard to finish when not faced with a submission expert.

Joseph Benavidez $1.28 vs

I am not touching this one for a couple of reasons, but if I were too it would probably be a small bet on Elliot. I can see a legitimate scenario where Elliott gets his hand raised. Joe has to avoid the post-title fight let down. He got bombed on and will most likely be out of the title picture for the foreseeable future. He would probably have to go on a 4-5 fight winning streak capped by a knockout of John Dodson to get another look. Either way I could see Elliott outworking him and landing more then he did against Ali. I felt Elliott could have won that fight with a few strikes landed instead of making him miss and doing nothing in return. Either way its bet on Elliott or nothing for me here.

Max Holloway $2.38 vs

Holloway is a pretty solid dog here. He is a calculated and clam striker in spite of his age. I think he will use his movement and faints to diffuse the pressure and set up his own attack. Fili is aggressive and he throws hard, but he looked a little sloppy versus a less then top level opponent. If Larsen can hit Fili, then Holloway can too and the prospect getting counter should slow him down significantly. The possibility of the Alpha Male product shooting concerns me, but Max showed excellent counter wrestling against Bermudez so he is far from outgunned. I like a solid single bet on Holloway here and I also intent to throw Holloway into my parlay plays as well.

Jim Miller $1.50 vs Y

Dangerous fight for Miller, lots to lose and little to gain other then a possible notch in the win column. Medeiros showed some decent TDD and good striking, but I think Miller presents problems in both areas. As long as Miller doesn’t run into something on the feet I assume he will find a way to win here, either busting him up with a combined standing and top position striking assault or out wrestling him with a potential submission finish. The play here is Jimmy on a parlay, preferably 2-3 fighters.

Luke Rockhold $1.13 vs

Nope, nothing to see here as far as a straight up bet is concerned. I might consider a prop bet, but we will see.

Phil Davis $1.54 vs

I put some thought into playing Rumble. If he can stop the wrestling of Davis long enough to land with power he could shut this fight off. That is a big if. Davis has been able to take pretty much anyone he has wanted down, and I don’t see how Johnson will be able to buck the trend. Additionally, the movement of Davis will make it hard for AJ to land when they are on the feet. Davis has some workable value and it should be played similar to Jimmy Miller in a parlay of 2-3 fighters.

Jon Jones $1.18 vs

As expected, lots of naysayers here — that is part of the prediction game. I really do feel that Teixeira is leaving with a win. Do I feel like Jones can’t win, nope, but I feel like he is facing someone that offers him more of a threat then he has ever faced. Glover might not have the quickness or finest of Gus, but he has the power and the ability to come forward and do damage. Not a lot to say here, Glover pays on a massive scale and is worth a single bet. Make it happen.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Luke Rockhold $1.13

2. Jim Miller $1.50

3. Danny Castillo $1.38

4.

5. Phil Davis $1.54

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6. Max Holloway $2.38

7. Takanori Gomi $1.54

8. Joseph Benavidez $1.28

9.

10.

 


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Max Holloway $2.38 I think that Max is being overlooked here, especially when you consider the number of times and who he has fought inside the Octagon in comparison to his counterpart.
2. $2.21 EPU and simply the more well rounded fighter getting the doghouse treatment because his opponent still has his zero and was on TUF.
3. $5.61 He is fighting the champ. Did you really think he would get to #1 on the list. His caliber of opponent is simply too high. Nonetheless I think he gets it done.
4. $1.95 Duke is being overvalued here. She is too green on the mat to emerge the winner here.
5. Jim Miller to Win by Submission $5.05 He has submitted far better opponents.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. $4.15 Joe could be in a tough spot coming off that tough title tilt trouncing. A small play might be in order for a double tough guy like Elliott.
2.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Chris Beal/

Danny Castillo/ C

Joseph Benavidez/

Jim Miller to Win by Submission $5.05- This seems a little, maybe more then a little, high to me. 13 of Miller’s 23 wins have come by submission, 5 in the UFC, and he owns 2 of those 5 against a pair of incredibly high ranked BJJ players in Charles Oliveira and Fabricio Camoes.

Luke Rockhold/

Phil Davis/