UFC 171- The Good, the Bad, & the Ugly + the Bet Pack
A new UFC Welterweight champion has been crowned in an early fight of the year candidate. In the main event of UFC 171 Johny Hendricks took home the title with a unanimous decision win over Robbie Lawler earning three 48-47’s from the cage side judges. Carlos Condit went down with an injury, which subsequently opened the picture for a myriad of challengers to rise up and stake claim to the next shot at the title. My night of predictions was pretty weak with a record of 7-6, which I would classify in the ugly category, but lets take a look at all three…
Sean Strickland looked solid in his debut and badly outclassed a veteran fighter in Bubba McDaniel, despite taking the fight on short notice. Sean is a promising addition to the division going forward, and Bubba will most likely be looking for work in the near future.
The performance put together by Justin Scoggins was impressive as he dominated a formerly undefeated Flyweight in Will Campuzano. He looked much better then Sergio Pettis did against Campuzano who fought Pettis on short notice.
Alex Garcia and Sean Spencer put on a show and really started got the card rolling after a bit of a slow start. They both earned some massive respect tonight and should have bright futures in the division.
A crack at a Top Ten opponent should be in the cards for Dennis Bermudez after he put the stamp on Jimy Hettes.
The only women on the card put on an entertaining bout. Jessica Andrade might be small but she pacts a punch and while Raquel Pennington did all she could to keep up and finished strong, the Brazilian was just too much for her.
The ‘Prelim Main Event’ or ‘the please enjoy this fight and buy the PPV’ fight feature a back and forth affair that ultimately went to Kelvin Gastelum. Rick Story had him hurt and got back in the bout when he nearly finished him but Gastelum took it home with a more complete effort. On a side not in my bet pack I posted that 8 of the last 11 prelim headliners have gone the distance, it is now 9 of 12.
Not enough good things can be said about the UFC 171 main event. GSP who? No I’m not fickle like that and you shouldn’t be either. Georges was a great champion, but it is time to move on for now. Robbie Lawler and Johny Hendricks put on a great show last night. Both men had their ups and downs and we couldn’t have asked for a better fight story. It was clearly 2-2 heading into the final round. Hendricks did what he had to do to take the title home and will be a great champion for however long he reins. Hendrick’s celebration at the end of the fight and subsequent F-bomb when talking to Joe were a prime example of a man to who went through a war and earn the title around his waste. Both men showed their power, their ability to endure adversity, and left it all in the cage. I would love to see 5 more rounds in the not too distant future.
Daniel Pineda didn’t look good. He waited on Robert Whiteford to engage and then took too long to try and mount a comeback. Normally he is an exciting fighter, but this type of loss might cost him his job.
Renee Forte lost to Frank Trevino not because of skills, but because physically he wasn’t prepared for the fight. He came in overweight and gassed after winning the opening frame. Trevino didn’t impress, but Forte should be sent packing.
OSP’s performance was exceptional, albeit short. This fight landed in the ‘Bad’ category because Ovince submitted Nikita Krylov with only the second successful Von Flue Choke in UFC history and Joe Rogan missed it. Rogan constantly talks about the possibility of this submission, even when the fighter is showing no signs of even considering it and when it is used he missed the boat.
Rogan takes another hit, this time for dumping on Hector Lombard’s performance. Lombard fought incredibly smart and was more then aggressive, but mixed in solid ground control. This was his first fight at 170 pounds that lasted more then a few minutes and he was fight a guy notorious for grinding guys out. Did Lombard earn a shot at the title, no, but he certainly moved up. I would like to see Woodley vs Lombard up next.
Jake Shields’s run in the UFC could be over. He was badly outclassed, he is 35, and isn’t the most entertaining competitor, while getting paid some big dollars. WSOF will most likely jump all over him and I would expect he would head back to Middleweight if that is the case.
That is most likely the final nail in the coffin of Diego Sanchez’s career as far as relevancy is concerned. Myles Jury was simply the better fighter and Diego lost the bout clean. He may continue fighting, but the last remaining member of the original TUF’s tournament finals is on his last legs.
Tyron Woodley calling for a title shot after defeating Carlos Condit on the basis of an injury is a little bit off. Yes he won, but honestly a guy who is not to far removed from losing to Jake Shields and getting knocked out by Nate Marquart needs to do a little more. There are multiple men ahead of him and as previously mention I would like to see him against Hecotor Lombard and if not then maybe Dong Hyun Kim. They are ranked lower then Woodley, but the division is wide open and I think everyone needs at least one more win before calling for a shot at this point.
Take nothing away from the new champ, but there are a few interesting comparisons to be made. Johny l0oked pretty battered and bruised at the end of the fight, worse then his opponent. It struck me as being eerily similar to how Georges looked at the end of his last fight. Secondly, when Hendricks hit the final takedown to seal it, if that had be St-Pierre then many would have gone after that move as playing it safe. Instead the takedown was represented as the sign of a true champion going out and winning the bout. I agree with the sentiment, but it is a little inconsistent with how other similar moves have been presented.
My performance as a predictor and my bet pack results were just this, ugly. 7-6 is not an acceptable record. I went 1-3 to start, reeled off 6 straight wins and finished 0-3. Yes I took a few chances, but they were calculated, explained, and in at least one case justified.
I will keep dumping on myself. I, for some unknown reason, am completely unwilling to take my own advice. I have preached the ‘EPU’ theory until my ears bleed, but have really only capitalized on it a handful of times. ‘EPU’ stands for Early Prelim Upsets and once again it held up when Rob Whiteford got his hand raised despite paying close to three on you dollar. I need to work out the details, but this concept of lesser known fighters who open the card defying the odds is a real one that I will work hard to exploit in the future.
Carlos Condit’s injury is a heart breaker. He was arguably one good performance away from a return engagement for the title. He was turning the tide in his favour against Woodley and it would have been an interesting finish before the injury fell the former WEC champ. He could very likely be forced to sit on the sidelines and watch as the division passes him by. Hopefully he has a quick recovery.
The people that wag their finger at me when I call for an upset that they feel is a longshot are laughable in their lack of understanding of MMA. If my prediction consisted of “I am taking Robbie Lawler to knockout Johny Hendricks” then yes they can jump on me for that or any other ‘predictor’ for attempting to throw lunchmeat at a wall and hope it sticks. I provide justified reasoning for my predictions and have nailed more then enough to prove that I am not swinging in the dark. Robbie Lawler was a few big shots away from taking the title in the final round, yes he lost, but my breakdown and pick of him was more the appropriate based on what we witnessed.
The judging was horrendous, which seems to be a trend in Texas. I won’t get into too many details, but if you look around the online MMA world you will see what I am talking about. Just to give you an idea, one judge game Johnny a 10-8 in the second round and then called it 10-10 in the final frame. What was he watching?
Finally, Nick Diaz needs to either to go away or get in the cage and earn a shot at the title. He is 1-2 since returning to the UFC and has lost back to back fights with the title on the line. He was at the weigh-ins harping on Johny for missing weight on his first try, he has made the statement that he would love to put a beating on the new champ, and he has talked about only coming back for a shot at the gold. He was gifted a shot at GSP, something he didn’t earn. There are far more deserving fighters willing to go out and compete for that opportunity. If he is a true fighter, he needs to show it or shut up.
Don’t be surprised if the UFC didn’t have Nick their last night in an attempt to build some heat and create a buzz for Hendricks vs Diaz while the rest of the division sorts itself out. They have already included Nick in a poll when asking the fans who they want to challenge the new champ next. He was leading at 55%.
It was a pretty solid night of fights and the Welterweight division was treated to a much different title fight then what has been the norm for so long. Much like the 185 pound ranks, there are a number of very interesting contenders licking their chops for a shot at the gold.
In an effort to accommodate different styles of MMA Bettors I have compiled 7 different possible betting cards to help you maximize your profit depending on what style of gambler you are and how much money you want to allocate to each card.
Big Money Bettors- for players with a higher bankroll willing to put a lot of cash on the line to turn a profit and build a growing account, focusing mainly on single bets and well placed parlays.
Recreational Bettors- for players that will allocate a decent sized bankroll per event, but would rather spread out their bets and try and turn smaller investments into big returns with larger parlays.
For Fun Bettors- for players that are putting a little bit of cash on the line just to have a good time and have no problem playing a high risk parlay hoping to cash that big payday.
Big Money Bettor, Budget: $550=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Carlos Condit to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $3.05 =================================================== Price: $3.05 x Bet: $75 Payout: $228.75 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: =================================================== Price: $4.50 x Bet: $75 Payout: $337.50 =================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Bubba McDaniel $2.28 =================================================== Price: $2.28 x Bet: $50 Payout: $114 =================================================== Parlay #4 =================================================== Selection 1: Renne Forte $1.80 Selection 2: Kelvin Gastelum $1.60 =================================================== Price: $2.88 x Bet: $100 Payout: $288 =================================================== Parlay #5 =================================================== Selection 1: Diego Sanchez $2.64 Selection 2: Carlos Condit $1.65 =================================================== Price: $4.36 x Bet: $100 Payout: $436 =================================================== Parlay #6 =================================================== Selection 1: Daniel Pineda/ Selection 2: Hector Lombard $1.51 Selection 3: Dennis Bermudez $1.44 =================================================== Price: $5.22 x Bet: $75 Payout: $391.50 =================================================== Parlay #7 =================================================== Selection 1: Carlos Condit $1.65 Selection 2: Kelvin Gastelum $1.60 Selection 3: =================================================== Price: $3.65 x Bet: $75 Payout: $273.75
Recreational Bettor, Budget: $225================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Carlos Condit to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $3.05 Selection 2: Dennis Bermudez $1.44 Selection 3: Kelvin Gastelum $1.60 =================================================== Price: $7.03 x Bet: $75 Payout: $527.25 Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Diego Sanchez $2.64 Selection 2: Renne Forte $1.80 =================================================== Price: $4.76 x Bet: $75 Payout: $357 Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Bubba McDaniel $2.28 Selection 2: =================================================== Price: $10.26 x Bet: $25 Payout:$256.50 Parlay #4 =================================================== Selection 1: Carlos Condit $1.65 Selection 2: Hector Lombard $1.51 Selection 3: Daniel Pineda $1.45 Selection 4: =================================================== Price: $5.64 x Bet: $50 Payout: $282
For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Carlos Condit $1.65 Selection 2: Kelvin Gastelum $1.60 Selection 3: Dennis Bermudez $1.44 Selection 4: Diego Sanchez $2.64 =================================================== Price: $10.04 x Bet: $25 Payout: $251
==================================================Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Hector Lombard $1.51 Selection 3: Renne Forte $1.80 Selection 4: =================================================== Price: $16.88 x Bet: $25 Payout: $422
Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns
Daniel Pineda $1.45 vs
I did give some thought on a Whiteford win, but when compared the type of fighters that Pineda usually beats with those that he usually losses to, all indications are that Whiteford fits in the second group. Pineda is the type of fighter that should clean up in these bouts and then test, but ultimately come up short against upper level guys. If he gets too wild that could cost him and that is a concern, but his aggression is also what makes him so effective. Whiteford struggled with Hettes on the mat and I would expect he will have trouble with Pineda as well. This does sit in the upset danger zone, but I still think that ‘the Pit’ gets it done. I would suggest a using Pineda as part of a 3 fighter parlay. He also has enough pop to consider using him with a dog on a 2 fighter parlay. I would have plenty of action without his name on it though as nothing is worse then crossing bets off after just one fight.
Bubba McDaniel $2.28 vs
I do think that this fights fits the preliminary upset profile perfectly. Strickland is a relative unknown prospect and Bubba has a limit portfolio to look at. Well its not that limited when you consider his time on TUF, which wasn’t good, but it also wasn’t a very good representation of what he is capable of. Bubba is a big 185er and having to make weight and hold weight on that type of schedule can be a draining task and really take a lot out of a fighter. That is the reason you see so many fighters drop a division as soon as the show is over (see Kelvin Gastelum). Either way, Bubba is a good grappler with size and while Strickland has had a good run, he has never faced a fighter with this type of grappling skills. Additionally, he is taking this bout on short notice and will have had limited prep time for Bubba’s skill-set. We also just saw how good Brad Tavares is and that should actually make people look at Bubba’s effort more fondly. My lean here is to a medium to upper sized single bet on Bubba, he hasn’t looked awesome and I think we are getting some value here as a result.
Will Campuzano $4.94 vs
I am a little disappoint in these odds, especially with how well Campuzano held himself against young Pettis and the fact that he is undefeated as a Flyweight. I would have had it a little closer with Scoggins around the $1.45 range maybe a little higher. Nonetheless, they have Scoggins as an extremely heavy favourite and I have no interest in playing him as a result. I would almost consider taking a shot with Will if the prospect comes up short against the battle hardened vet. I’ll take a pass on Scoggins.
Renne Forte $1.80 vs
This line doesn’t make up the one we just talked about, but its a start. I was not impressed with Trevino is any of the footage I saw. In fact in one of the fights I looked at he looked to really struggle on the ground with his opponent and didn’t limited damage everywhere else, but still won. Things just didn’t add up. Forte isn’t a world beater by any stretch of the imagination and if he gets cracked flush he could very well go down, but outside of that he should have this fight. He is the better grappler and showed against Etime that he can do damage on the feet. He simply ran into a dangerous striker last time out and appeared to be winning or at least in close with Sergio Moraes (at MW) in his debut before getting subbed by a world-class grappler. Forte should be able to take this and I am leaning towards either making him a single bet or putting some heavy cash down on him with a suitable partner for a 2 fight parlay, take a look at the parlay section when it is done to see what I decide. Either would work and you could consider both if you need to make your bet before I get it posted. If you want to do both then consider a single bet and then Forte with 2 other decent paying favs.
Sean Spencer $4.36 vs
This is another fight that I am really not chopping at the bit to bet on. I can see avenues for both fighters to win that are very realistic. For Spencer, if he can survive the first round and Garcia begins to slows he has the ability to outwork him and take the last 2 rounds on the cards or by simply being a little more technical and outpointing an over aggressive adversary. For Garcia, he has the better chance of scoring some type of finish and if he doesn’t gas I could see a combo on dominant ground control and a hard forward push on the feet earning him the decision. As a result I will most likely take a pass on such a heavy fav who has less then 60 seconds of UFC cage time. I would almost consider a small single bet on Spencer here.
Dennis Bermudez $1.44 vs
With a couple of fighters that I have passed on already and potentially more to come, I have to roll the dice somewhere and that is here. Bermudez has been tapped 3 times and 10 of Hettes’s 11 wins are by sub. Yes, that is something to shutter about. All that considered, Hettes submitted a number of low level guys before the UFC and then dominated a guy prone to getting beaten up on the mat, submitted a guy with multiple submission losses, and most recently tapped an extremely late notice replacement. When he actually faced someone who either showed some semblance of TDD (Phan didn’t) or didn’t wholeheartedly dive into a grappling exchange (Caceres and Whiteford did), he lost. Brimage has a limited grappling background and had no problem keeping the fighter vertical and Bermudez should do the same. If Dennis gets sloppy or caught with a shot, as he always seems to do he could be in trouble. Keep in mind Hettes doesn’t have the type of power to hurt Bermudez, or at least he hasn’t show it yet. I see Dennis’s short stature, wrestling pedigree, and speed advantage allowing him to limit Hettes’s grappling while allow him to do a lot of damage on the feet. I like Bermudez as the second part of a 2 fight parlay with a Renee Forte, Kelvin Gastelum, or Carlos Condit attached to him. Decent bang for your buck.
Raquel Pennington $3.36 vs
I looked long and hard at this fight and was really considering Pennington here. I felt/ feel that her size and length could create problems and if she either ups the output or lands some decent power shots she could really find some success. Andrade looked great in her last fight and a dominant performance can serve to over-inflate what a fighter is capable of and lower their price in the follow-up fight. What eventually convinced me not to pick Raquel was her slow start. She arguably lost the first round against Roxanne simply because she didn’t throw enough punches. Roxanne didn’t do much of anything, but she kept busy. If Pennington allows this to happen again (it has already happened more then once) she will get lit up by Andrade, because she will be landing big power early and often. On top of this, Andrade has a solid grappling base and will threaten with her BJJ. If she does that will further back Pennington off on the feet for fear of being taken down. In similar fashion to Bermudez, I think the best move here is to pair Andrade up with a better paying fav or even slight dog for a 2 fight parlay. Don’t over complicate things.
Kelvin Gastelum $1.60 vs
This is a fight I would sit on until the last possible moment. Gastelum opened as a decent fav, but the number is slowly creeping back up and as we get closer to fight time I could see it approaching $1.65. Story has name recognition with most casual bettors and that will draw some money and subsequently change the line. Gastelum is very similar to Story, but younger, faster, and it would appear that he has better conditioning. There are other elements to this fight, but those are some big ones. Rick has struggled with the ground attack of aggressive grapplers that he can’t out muscle or bully around. When guys like Maia and Brenneman took it to him, he folded up shop. Even after he hurt Kampmann early, he struggled with MK put him on the defensive. Gastelum’s run on TUF is proof positive that he isn’t afraid to go out and engage. Unless he trips up under the big lights and against a proven vet, he takes this fight. I like Kelvin as part of a 2 fight parlay (as you have already read). Simply find another fav and pair them up. You can be a little more conservative with a heavier fav or go a bit bigger with someone like Condit. I lean towards the latter.
Ovince St-Preux $1.29 vs
I think that passing on this fight is the way to go. Of the 3 fighters I picked in this range, I have the most faith in OSP, but its still a risk/reward issues. Krylov didn’t impress me pre-UFC, so I picked against him as a fav in his debut which worked out and even with the knockout win vs Harris I am still not sold. He is young and could round into something, but OSP is a handful for most guys at this level. He will be too quick for Krylov and that will have a massive impact on the bout. I also anticipate him being to physical. I can see this fight ending early so a prop could be in order, but neither a straight-up bet on OSP or a small play on Krylov hold my interest here.
Jake Shields $2.86 vs
I was hoping that Shields reputation would get him a little closer to even here. He has lost just twice in recent memory, once to GSP and once when he fought right after his dad and died and probably should have just pulled out. Either way the guy is a tough out and I was close to taking him. I called him in the upset of Woodley and feel he has a good chance to win here, but he needs to gas Lombard out to do so. I was on the cusp of writing Shields by decision down on my notes before I recorded the video, but then I remember by breakdown of Shields vs Akiyama. He had almost no success taking Akiyama down, which is something that I anticipated based on the judo base of Sexyama. While Shields still won the fight because his opponent didn’t offer much on the feet, the lack of grappling success stands out. Match that up with his struggles to take a short and powerful grappler down in Woodley and Lombard should be able to keep this fight standing. Lombard struggled with Okami, but Yushin does have some speed, something Shields lacks. I expect that Lombard can stop Shields or do enough to take 2 rounds before slowing in the third. Either way I like what Lombard offers and if his cardio is improved from the cut then I like it even more. Lombard is a nice addition to a parlay. He can work either alongside a decent paying fav or 2 lower paying favs on a 3 fight parlay. Take a look at the odds on a stoppage win for Lombard as well, I will, as they should pay nicely.
Diego Sanchez $2.64 vs
Jury has been good and is undefeated. But you can fairly easily deconstruct his wins. Arguably the biggest name is Michael Johnson and he simply held down a guy with brutal grappling defense. He beat a TUF reject in Chris Saunders, and then knocked off two TUF finalist- one with brutal striking D and the other in a relative uninspiring performance. Either way this is a big step up for Jury. He facing a guy with an aggressive striking, power, and a ground game to back it up. If Myles Jury is ready for the big time then it will show up here, but he hasn’t done anything that would indicate he can handle what Diego is going to throw at it. Look for Diego to simply outwork him and shutdown Myles’s attempts to diffuse his aggression with wrestling. I like Diego here and I think he fits the role of my number #1 play. I still have to review the prop bets, but I like Diego here for a big single play. I have also put some thought into pairing him with Condit and seeing how that roles.
Carlos Condit $1.65 vs
I toyed with the idea of Woodley pulling this one out on the basis of his wrestling game. Then I went back and watched how Condit was able to continually get up from under Hendricks and constantly attacked him. I came to the conclusion that one round of attempting to hold Condit down will result in Woodley gassing badly and becoming easy pickings for Condit in rounds 2 and 3. When Tyron tries to go wrestling only as was the case against Paul Daley he gasses, he gassed against Jake Shields in low impact type fight. He is too heavily muscled to be able to fight like that for long periods of time. When he fought Marquardt it was primarily a striking battle so he was able to go longer without slowing down. Unfortunately he got knocked out. I see that happening here. If Woodley tries to stand with Condit he will get cracked with a big shot. Woodley is strong and hits hard, but his 2 big knockouts came over fighters with similar skillsets and neither were overly technical strikers like Condit is. My play here is using Condit on one of my bigger, if not he biggest 2 fighter parlay bets of the night. Gastelum seems to be the most appealing partner, but Forte might work as well.
Johny Hendricks $1.25 vs
I had all intentions of taking Johny Hendricks. The guy is a massive double threat; herculean knockout power and elite level wrestling. But the more and more I watched him vs Condit, I saw 2 things. One he wasn’t able to hold Condit down. Yes Condit is a talented guard player, but I have been impressed with Robbie’s ability to either ward of takedowns or get back up. If he can do that a couple of times that will give him more then enough opportunities to land that big shot. Two, Hendricks appears very focussed on the knockout and can become a little predictable in pursuit. I anticipate that Lawler will be the more diverse striker and if Condit could land some big shots, Lawler will be able to as well. Additionally, consider that Lawler will have a 5″ reach and 2″ height advantage and there is a very good chance that he is going to land first during a lot of the exchanges. Hendricks it the favourite for a reason, but he has never faced anyone with this type of knockout power. Yes Condit is a brutal striker, but I think that Lawler is one step ahead as far as night-night juice is concerned. My play here is a single bet, if you have the cash he could be your number one play. A package worth considering is a single bet on Lawler and then pairing Sanchez/ Condit and Gastelum/ Forte or Lombard. See the parlay section for my final plays.
Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)
1. Dennis Bermudez $1.44
2. Carlos Condit $1.65
5. Kelvin Gastelum $1.60
6. Ovince St-Preux $1.29
7. Alex Garcia $1.28
8. Daniel Pineda $1.45
9. Diego Sanchez $2.64
10. Hector Lombard $1.51
11. Renne Forte $1.80
12. Bubba McDaniel $2.28
Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||Carlos Condit to Win by KO/TKO/DQ||$3.05||I never thought this prop would pay out over $3.00 and as a result it bumps ‘the Dream’ from the top spot.|
|2.||Diego Sanchez||$2.64||Diego is a tough veteran, the likes that Jury has yet to face in his young career. It takes a very experienced fighter to deal with the type of Crazy that Sanchez brings, I don’t think Myles is quite there yet.|
|3.||Pineda/||$2.40||Pineda is a finisher and he goes for it, which can result in him getting the finish or getting finished. Either way, 17 of 18 wins have come inside the 1.5 round limit.|
|4.||$4.50||I just don’t like the way Hendricks carelessly wades forward looking to land that big shot and willingly lets his opponent puts his hands on his beard.|
|5.||Bubba McDaniel||$2.28||Veteran against a guy making his debut on very short notice, hard not to take a shot here.|
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||Sean Spencer||$4.36||Garcia is getting some high praise for just a single win in the UFC. It was impressive but less then 60 seconds of Octagon time is a bit alarming. Spencer is 2-1 and has won a pair of gritty battles. A small bet here on the dog might be warranted.|
|2.||Will Campuzano||$4.94||Will has looked very good at Flyweight (undefeated) and he pushed Sergio Pettis in that fight after taking it on short notice I think you are getting some value here, event though I have Scoggins winning. A small invest on Campuzano is the best play for this fight as Scoggins is still a prospect and doesn’t warrant this type of status just yet.|
The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.
Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.
The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.
There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.
Raquel Pennington /
Carlos Condit to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $3.05- Condit has awesome power and will have a significant advantage in technique. He has stopped 14 opponents, including 4 of his 6 wins in the UFC over top competition- MacDonald, Kampmann, Kim, and Hardy. Woodley has been KOed just once, but if the fight plays out as I anticipate it will, the second stoppage is coming.