UFC 169: Barao vs. Faber 2: Results & Bet Pack

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Prelims

170lbs- Neil Magny (8-3-0) vs Gaasan Umalatov (14-2-0)

Magny started to push forward with great knee strikes early. Umalatov landed a takedown and fell into side control. Neil got up and tried to pressure him against the cage. He kept landing great hooks and ended the round trying to secure an RNC. In the 2nd, Magny kept using his reach to frustrate Umalatov. Every time he landed a shot on Magny, Neil kept pushing forward and recovering. Umalatov tried to take Magny’s back in the 3rd but failed. He landed a couple shots, and a takedown, but stood up early. Magny took a big decision win. 0-1

155lbs- Tony Martin (8-0-0) vs Rashid Magomedov (16-1-0)

Martin started off by landing a takedown and controlling Magomedov. Martin went for a HUGE armbar attempt that had Magomedov’s arm almost snapped but he worked so hard to get out of it. The 2nd round was pretty even as no fighter really got the upper hand. It seemed to be 1-1 going into the 3rd. Magomedov had a tight guillotine on Martin but he escaped. He landed some huge shots that hurt Martin and he kept pushing forward. Magomedov went 8/9 for takedown defenses. His flashy kicks won him this one by a decision. 1-1

185lbs- Clint Hester (9-3-0) vs Andy Enz (8-0-0)

Hester landing a huge shot right to the head that dropped Enz, Hester tried to finish but he recovered quickly. Enz then landed a big kick that hurt Hester, but it didn’t throw him off of his game. Hester got the upper hand in the strike game for the 1st. Enz was landed some good strikes in the 2nd until he was taken down. He got up and ate a big head kick from Hester. Clint pushed the pace in the 3rd and picked up a decision win. 2-1

155lbs- Al Iaquinta (7-2-1) vs Kevin Lee (7-0-0)

Iaquinta landed a huge uppercut a minute into the 1st. He connected with flurries but it wasn’t enough to finish Lee. Al slid right into a heel hook but Lee escaped. Iaquinta kept the pace and took the round. Lee took Al’s back and locked in a tight RNC. Iaquinta was so close to passing out, be he escaped. They stayed in the same position for the rest of the 2nd (Lee taking Iaquinta’s back). Al came out and landed shots that rocked Lee again, but Lee landed another takedown. Al got up quickly. He landed more flush shots and picked up the decision win. 3-1

185lbs- Nick Catone (9-4-0) vs Tom Watson (16-6-0)

Catone pressured Watson against the cage and tried for a takedown for a majority of the 1st round. Watson did land some jabs to start off the 2nd but he left himself open for Catone to land some of his own. Catone landed a great takedown at the end of the 2nd. Watson had a little sense of urgency by throwing many punches and kicks in the 3rd, but most of them missed. Even though it didn’t seem like it, Watson did land more effective shots in the fight. Catone picked up the decision win. 3-2

125lbs- Chris Cariaso (15-5-0) vs Danny Martinez (16-4-0)

Martinez came out with an objective to take him down early. He pressured Cariaso but Chris countered well and defended the takedowns. Martinez desperately went for takedowns against the cage but Cariaso defended them all. He took advantage of a tired Martinez in the 2nd by landing some good jabs but Danny went for more takedowns against the cage and finally landed one. Cariaso showed more great strikes in the 3rd and defended more of Danny’s takedowns. Cariaso picked up the decision win.4-2

155lbs- John Makdessi (12-2-0) vs Alan Patrick (11-0-0)

Patrick came out and tried to get this one to the ground early. Makdessi pushed off and kept the distance. He landed good shots on Patrick until he was taken down and put against the cage. Patrick did land a few shots of his own in the 2nd. Makdessi continued to counter well. Makdessi would keep stuffing Patrick’s takedowns and landed shots on the way up. IN AN ABSOLUTE TERRIBLE DECISION, PATRICK PICKED UP THE WIN. 4-3

Main Card

155lbs- Jamie Varner (21-8-3) vs Abel Trujllio (11-5-1)

These guys came out swinging and landed shots on each other. Varner took Abel down and took the back. He then switched to north south and locked in a north-south choke. Abel got up and they went at it again. They swung but Abel got the upper hand with the more powerful strikes to end the round. In the 2nd, the fight turned into an ALL OUT WAR. They were swinging for the fences and landing like crazy. Varner rocked Abel many times and almost had it finished. Varner kept swinging and ate a right hand that left him face first and unconscious. 5-3

125lbs- John Lineker (23-6-0) vs Ali Bagautinov (12-2-0)

Bagautinov landed a takedown about 20 secs into the fight. He stayed in guard until Lineker attempted a heel hook and so did Ali. They stood up and Bagautinov landed another takedown, he stayed in guard until the end of the 1st. Ali started to get Lineker up against the cage and land effective shots. Lineker started to land huge body shots that hurt Ali. Lineker seemed to have landed the bigger shots in the 2nd. Ali landed 2 takedowns and controlled Linker in the 3rd. Ali picked up the decision win. 6-3

265lbs- Frank Mir (16-8-0) vs Alistair Overeem (36-13-1)

Overeem pressured Mir early. He got him in the clinch and landed a huge knee that dropped Mir. He pinned Mir’s arm behind his head and landed some good punches. Mir ate some big knees to the body but he got up and recovered. Mir pulled guard and Overeem ended the round on Mir. In the 2nd, Overeem paced himself well and landed some good jabs. Mir landed a takedown and tried for a guillotine but Alistair escaped into Mir’s guard. Overeem stayed in control for the rest of the 2nd. To start out the 3rd, Overeem went for the clinch but fell into Mir’s guard. Overeem kept battering Mir’s face. They stood up and nothing much happened. Overeem picked up a dominant decision win. 7-3

145lb Championship bout- Jose Aldo(c) (23-1-0) vs Ricardo Lamas (13-2-0)

The 1st was kind of slow. Lamas came out with some leg kicks, but Aldo had some great combos that consisted of body shots and leg kicks. Aldo kept countering in the 2nd with great hooks, and he damaged Lamas with some leg kicks. Aldo controlled the 3rd with harsh leg kicks and body shots. Lamas did push forward and land couple shots though. Lamas tried for a takedown in the 4th, but failed and Aldo got on top. He took the mount, then tried to secure the RNC from the back. Lamas stood up and shook him off. Aldo took Lamas down again in the 5th. Toward the end, Lamas reversed Aldo and got on top to land some good ground and pound. Aldo pulled Lamas toward him to prevent damage, and the round ended. Aldo took a unanimous decision win and defends his title. (49-46, 49-46, 49-46) 8-3

135lb Championship bout- Renan Barao(c) (31-1-1) vs Urijah Faber (30-6-0)

Faber was pushing forward early, even landed a couple hooks until he was dropped by a huge straight right by Barao. Renan unleashed a flurry of punches on top of Faber. Urijah got up and was trying to recover but kept getting dropped over and over by Barao. One final time he was floored by a punch, he held on to Barao’s knee/leg and was taking hammerfists. Though Faber gave Herb Dean a “thumbs up”, the fight was stopped. It was a good stoppage IMO. You can’t just sit there and take punishment. You have to keep moving and advancing position or the fight will be stopped. It was sad to see Faber go down to Barao again, but Renan Barao is one of the pound for pound best fighters in the world. 9-3

Check out the bet pack results down below!!!

UFC 169

Parlay Breakdowns

In an effort to accommodate different styles of MMA Bettors I have compiled 7 different possible betting cards to help you maximize your profit depending on what style of gambler you are and how much money you want to allocate to each card.

Big Money Bettors- for players with a higher bankroll willing to put a lot of cash on the line to turn a profit and build a growing account, focusing mainly on single bets and well placed parlays.

Recreational Bettors- for players that will allocate a decent sized bankroll per event, but would rather spread out their bets and try and turn smaller investments into big returns with larger parlays.

For Fun Bettors- for players that are putting a little bit of cash on the line just to have a good time and have no problem playing a high risk parlay hoping to cash that big payday.

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $550

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Renan Barao to Win by Decision $2.20
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Price: $2.20 x Bet: $150
Payout: $330
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Nick Catone $2.65
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Price: $2.65 x Bet: $125
Payout: $331.25
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: John Lineker $2.28
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Price: $2.28 x Bet: $50
Payout: $114
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Jose Aldo to Win by Decision $4.25
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Price: $4.25 x Bet: $25
Payout: $106.25
 
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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Jamie Varner $1.77
Selection 2: John Makdessi $1.63
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Price: $2.89 x Bet: $75
Payout: $216.75
 
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Parlay #6
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Clint Hester Win by TKO/KO/DQ $3.00
Selection 3: Chris Cariaso $1.70
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Price: $16.12 x Bet: $25
Payout: $403
 
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Parlay #7
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Selection 1: Renan Barao to Win by Decision $2.20
Selection 2: Jamie Varner/
Selection 3: Chris Cariaso $1.70
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Price: $6.40 x Bet: $50
Payout: $320
 
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Parlay #8
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Selection 1: Nick Catone $2.65
Selection 2: Jamie Varner $1.77
Selection 3: John Makdessi $1.63
Selection 4: Clint Hester $1.55
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Price: $11.85 x Bet: $50
Payout: $592.50

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Renan Barao to Win by Decision $2.20
Selection 2: John Makdessi $1.63
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Price: $3.59 x Bet: $75
Payout: $169.25
 
Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Jamie Varner $1.77
Selection 2: Nick Catone $2.65
Selection 3: Clint Hester $1.55
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Price: $7.27 x Bet: $75
Payout: $545.25
 
Parlay #3
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Selection 1: John Lineker $2.28
Selection 2: Chris Cariaso $1.70
Selection 3:
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Price: $12.25 x Bet: $50
Payout: $612.50
 

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Renan Barao to Win by Decision $2.20
Selection 2: Nick Catone $2.65
Selection 3: Jamie Varner $1.77
Selection 4: John Makdessi $1.63
===================================================
Price: $16.82 x Bet: $25
Payout: $420.50
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: John Lineker $2.28
Selection 2: Chris Cariaso $1.70
Selection 3: Clint Hester Win by TKO/KO/DQ $3.00
Selection 4: Alistair Overeem to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $1.56
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Price: $18.14 x Bet: $25
Payout: $453.50
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Neil Magny $2.65 vs

My theory regarding upsets in the opening 2 bouts of the night held true for the last show with both curtain jerkers going to the dog. Unfortunately I wasn’t on either. Its that uncertainty that comes with lesser known fighters in the early fights that lead to the possibility of an ‘upset’ based on the lines that are set. What concerns me for this event is that I am on both favs to start the show, so who is going to knock over the apple cart? Umalatov is a strong grappler and should be able to replicate the previous issues that Magny had. If can’t get the fight to the mat he could be in trouble though. I think I am’ trending towards either leaving this fight off the bet card altogether or making it an add-on to a parlay that I already have. He does have a little bang to his buck, but there is some uncertainty here that keeps me from getting too excited.

Tony Martin $3.22 vs

If someone had a gun to my head and told me I had to pick an underdog from one of the opening fights, I would probably roll with Martin. He is physically the larger man and has a good submission game. He goes after it aggressively and could ware on Magomedov if he can push the issue. Magomedov is the better striker and has experience taking on and defeating grappling oriented opponents, but he has been out of action for a year. I am not willing to put money down on Martin as I feel there are a number of solid options on this card and it is better spent elsewhere, but I think I will simply pass on this fight on the basis of my early dog theory.

Clint Hester $1.55 vs

Hester is 2-0, but he has been far from flawless in that start. He is vulnerable on the mat, but is getting better at both preventing it from going there and getting back up when it does. Enz showed a lot of heart in his TUF qualifier bout, but I think he at a lower level compared to either guy that Hester has beaten so far. At first look the submission numbers are the biggest concern for an opponent facing Hester. Enz’s best chance to win this fight is to either get this fight to a dominant position early when they are dry and look for a sub or keep pushing the pace win/lose/or draw in the first 2 rounds and then sub a potentially gassed Hester late in the fight. I do like Hester though to keep it standing and continually land on an opponent that pretty much keeps walking forward and is too tough for his own good. I think Hester is a candidate for a parlay play. Probably one of my 3 fight picks as he has a decent return and could help get the total price up over $3.50.

Al Iaquinta $1.41 vs

This pick might have some people scratching their heads, but so does the actual decision to match these two up. You have a young prospect with UFC experience in Iaquinta taking on another young prospect making his debut. Either you get the new guy of to a bad start or you upend the momentum that Al has put together. Now I was back and forth on this pick, but it wasn’t until on consulted with Josh Harper that I went with my initial pick and took Lee. Harper felt the same as I did and it confirmed for me that I wasn’t just reaching for an upset pick. Lee is new and relatively untested, but he seems very good at what he does which is wrestle. Iaquinta has had some issues defending takedowns and has been submitted twice. If Lee opts to focus on the mat game that could be enough to pull this one out. I am not saying that Iaquinta won’t win this fight, but I think Lee has a much better chance then the line suggests. My play here is a moderate single bet. With his big price the return will still be decent.

Nick Catone $2.65 vs

This is most likely going to be one of if not my biggest play of the night. I know Catone has not been that impressive of late, but his wrestling credentials and Watson’s struggles with good ground men should be more then enough reason to back him. If you look at his run he lost a split to Munoz, won 2 in a row, then lost a fight via Doc stoppage that he was up 2-0 in, then was submitted after winning the first round vs Waldburger. He has been more then competitive in pretty much all of his fights. While Watson has gone 1-2, with 5 takedowns against in each bout. Unless he is able to rally like he did against Nedkov, I just don’t like backing a fighter who gets taken down that much against a fighter who is as solid a wrestler as Catone is. Even if this fight spends big chunks of time on the feet, Watson struggled with the striking of Leites most likely because he was concerned with the shot. Catone is a decent striker and keeps things simple but still effective. I just think he is being way undervalued here and as a result he is one of my biggest plays of the night.

Chris Cariaso $1.70 vs

Here is another strong bet. Cariaso is a solid veteran fighter who has faced far superior competition. Martinez has struggled every time he has stepped up to face better comp- Benavidez, Formiga, and Hominick. He is a wrestler with a pretty basic striking attack- left hands. If he can get Cariaso down and keep him down that is his best path to victory, but other then Formiga, no one including multiple BWs have had consistent success attempting that. I expect that Martinez will land some TDs, but Cariaso will get back up and get the better of the striking exchanges. Martinez’s reliance on left hands will leave him open to Cariaso’s left kick to the body and head which is his best weapon. It could be close, maybe even a split but I still think that Kamikaze leaves with his hands raised. He makes an excellent pick for a 2 fighter parlay, or you could go one bigger and make it 3 if you would like. He adds some nice pop to whatever you put your money on.

John Makdessi $1.63 vs

I am a little shocked that Makdessi isn’t getting a bigger push as a favourite here. He has more experience, has faced better competition, and is simply the better fighter. The biggest concern is that if Patrick is able to take him down Makdessi isn’t that strong off of his back. I just don’t see it happening. Makdessi has shut down far better fighters with his striking and range control. He will most likely catch Patrick with a stiff jab every time he moves forward and then blast him with kicks when he has him stuck at range. I think Makdessi makes an excellent play with Cariaso or another decent paying favourite.

Jamie Varner $1.77 vs

Trujillo has looked like a violent wrecking machine in his 2 wins, but they were against “where is he now” Marcus LeVesseur and a really off looking Roger Bowling. In his other 2 fight he pretty much did nothing but complain in a one-sided defeat against the Russian Nurminator and was IMO losing the first encounter with Bowling. Varner is a far more seasoned fighter with bigger wins and simply more experience. He is an underrated boxer with power and a chin and a good wrestler with submission capabilities. Unless he gets trapped under Abel like he did against Tibau, he should be in good shape wherever this fight transpires. If you look back at Trujillo vs Bowling I, Bowling was eating him up with jabs and more technical strikes and having a lot of success with his takedowns. Varner should be able to replicate that and avoid being pushed around by Abel. I really like Varner here, I am considering a single bet on him, but need to investigate a few prop bets first. If I don’t make a single bet on him, the former WEC champ will most likely be on my top parlay bet with someone like Cariaso, Makdessi, or Hester.

Side Note: Back when Strikeforce was still operating and looking to add more talent to their roster I called for Varner to sign on. I felt he with a win or 2 he could have been a competent and recognizable challenger for Gilbert Melendez. I’m not saying he would have won, but he would have given him a go. Every fight fan’s dream- give me control of a promotion and let me start signing fighters and setting matches.

Rebuilding Strikeforce- One Division at a Time I can’t wait until the new EA UFC game hits the market!

John Lineker $2.28 vs

This is a bout of great importance for both the Flyweight division and John Linker’s career. The Winner probably gets a title shot. The only other option is Brad Pickett if he wins his debut, they could play him up as the next contender as he holds a win over Johnson. Additionally, if Lineker fails to make weight again and losses he could be on his way out. A lot of people are really high on Ali and although he is 2-0 I’m not convinced yet. He went back and forth in his debut against an average fighter and I felt he was getting outworked in his second fight, but his opponent didn’t land enough to make it count for squat. That shouldn’t be a problem with Lineker. John-John throws hard and he throws lots. Yes that leaves him open for counters, but I think his power and pace will keep Ali moving backwards all night. If Bagautinov can get the fight to the ground that is a massive advantage, but again I haven’t been that impressed with his wrestling. Ali is more then capable of pulling this fight off, but I simply like with Lineker brings to the table more and he has some nice value. I think a single bet works here. He might be my #2 play, but could also drop a little depending on the props I am about to look into. Either way he will be in my top 5 and bet straight up.

Frank Mir $4.30 vs

Nope, not playing this one straight up. Overeem should take it as I just don’t see Frankie enduring the early barrage like Browne did, but if Mir survives and Overeem fades he could get finished on the feet or the ground. You never know Mir might be able to catch him coming forward. I will tell you this though I am afraid for Mir’s safety in this fight. A prop bet is probably the way to go.

Jose Aldo $1.17 vs

There is just no value with Aldo straight up and I don’t have confidence is Lamas to pull the upset. After Frankie came up short, I don’t see Lamas having the skill set to get the job done. If I had to build an opponent to beat Jose it would consist of Chad Mendez’s build and wrestling, combined with Frankie’s cardio and pace, and elite level striking with power and speed. That is asking a lot. I like Lamas, I took him over Koch back in the day, but I feel that he is just a place holder to keep the champ busy. Leading to either Aldo going to LW and giving up the strap or facing off with the winner of Penn/Edgar III. There are props though that make sense here. Check the prop section later on.

Renan Barao $1.38 vs

Barao is actually getting a little bit of a return here. Faber is a monster and is the #2 or #3 guy depending on the health of Cruz. I think that he has made strides since Cruz vs Faber II and the impact for Cruz from the layoff injury could lead to a win for Faber. Nonetheless I have Barao winning this bout short of getting clipped and Faber getting his neck in a squeeze. I wouldn’t be against using Barao as the third part of a 3 fight parlay. I think the addition of a few dollars is worth it considering the risk factor. I also am looking really hard at prop opportunity that might work its way into my big single bet plays. I’ll keep you updated.

 


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Renan Barao $1.38

2. Jose Aldo $1.17

3. Clint Hester $1.55

4. Chris Cariaso $1.70

5. John Makdessi $1.63

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6.

7. Jamie Varner $1.77

8. Nick Catone $2.65

9. John Lineker $2.28

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Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Renan Barao to Win by Decision $2.20 I just can’t pass on this one as my top play, not at $2.20. Faber is a great fighter, Barao is just a little better, but won’t finish.
2. Nick Catone $2.65 Unless Watson hurts him then this is Catone’s fight to win despite the line posing him as the underdog.
3. John Lineker $2.28 This fight could end multiple ways with either man getting their hand raised. Unless the weight cut goes horribly wrong I like the Brazilian.
4. $3.16 There is upset potential here, no doubt. No guarantee either. But the price is right to take a shot.
5. Jose Aldo to Win by Decision $4.25 Varner was a strong option here, but at $4+ I can’t let this one get passed by. Aldo could finish and that is why the figure sits where it does. Still its worth a few dollars.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Frank Mir $4.30 If he survives the early onslaught, he could pull this one out and Overeem is too vulnerable to be this big of a favourite. Maybe worth a small play.
2. Tony Martin $3.22 Not much is know here, but I think he has a legit shot to pull it off. If you abide by my theory of early fight underdogs cashing in, then Martin is the most likely candidate.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Neil Magny/

Clint Hester Win by TKO/KO/DQ $3.00- This prop most likely won’t be available on all sites, so I won’t spend too much time on it. Enz will keep coming forward in pursuit of the TD and the damage will pile up leading to the knockout. There is value.

Jamie Varner/

Alistair Overeem to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $1.56- This shouldn’t come as a shock. If you are going to play Overeem take him by knockout. This isn’t going the distance and Mir is not getting subbed. Play the knockout as it has a little more value then the under 1.5 rounds.

Jose Aldo to Win by Decision $4.25- A knockout is a very real possibility here, but there is simply too much value in the decision win to overlook. Aldo has gone the distance 7 times in his career, 3 of 5 times in the UFC and he was head towards 4 of 5 until KZ got hurt. I expect to see Aldo pace himself early to avoid a late slow down and although Lamas has been stopped twice he is still going to be difficult to put away.

Renan Barao to Win by Decision $2.20- This play could be a front runner for my top single bets. Faber could win, but the chances are slim. Barao finishing him is a possibility, but Faber is good enough to hang and keep himself out of trouble. It my be a full 5 rounds to the champ, but its going to the judges.