UFC 168: Silva vs. Weidman 2: Results & Bet Pack

 

Josh Harper

Online Prelims

145 lbs. – Robbie Peralta (2-1(1) UFC) vs. Estevan Payan (0-1 UFC) – Peralta via TKO

Peralta was doing well on the feet for the first 2 rounds, but Payan secured takedowns and likely did enough to win both rounds. Peralta then came out strong in the 3rd round and got a quick TKO finish.

170 lbs. – William Macario (0-1 UFC) vs. Bobby Voelker (0-2 UFC) – Macario via U. decision

Macario was extremely accurate with his hard punches and kicks throughout the fight while landing multiple takedowns. Voelker showed heart by never backing down even with a really bloody cut.

Fox Sports Prelims

170 lbs. – John Howard (5-3 UFC) vs. Siyar Bahadurzada (1-1 UFC) – Howard via U. decision

Howard showed very effective striking throughout the fight and landed the harder strikes as well. Howard also got multiple takedowns and never let Bahadurzada mount much offense.

145 lbs. – Dennis Siver (10-6 UFC) vs. Manvel Gamburyan (4-5 UFC) – Siver via U. decision

Gamburyan was able to get off some decent strikes and landed multiple takedowns, but Siver landed more strikes and spent more time in dominant positions on the ground.

155 lbs. – Gleison Tibau                (13-7 UFC) vs. Michael Johnson (5-4 UFC) – Johnson via KO

 Tibau came out fairly strong in this fight, but he couldn’t secure a takedown nor stop the striking of Johnson. Johnson showed impressive boxing skills and a lot of power with his KO finish.

185 lbs. – Chris Leben (12-9 UFC) vs. Uriah Hall (0-2 UFC) – Hall via TKO

Hall was using his footwork extremely well in this fight and never let Leben get close to him. When Leben over committed, Hall made him pay with hard counter punches which ended the fight.

Main Card

145 lbs. – Dustin Poirier (6-2 UFC) vs. Diego Brandao (4-1 UFC)

Brandao came into this fight several pounds overweight and had to forfeit a percentage of his purse to Poirier as well as not being eligible for any bonus awards. Brandao came out strong like he always does with hard kicks and looping punches managing to drop Poirier, but just minutes into the first round Brandao tired and Poirier turned up the pressure eventually pinning him against the cage and landing several hard punches that rocked Brandao and allowed Poirier to finish him off with ground and pound.

 155 lbs. – Jim Miller (11-3(1) UFC) vs. Fabricio Camoes (1-2-1 UFC)

Camoes and Miller both came out firing in this fight looking to land hard combination punches. Camoes seemed to be getting a little bit of an edge on Miller, but Miller kept returning punches. Eventually Miller did go for a trip takedown, but Camoes ended up on top and tried to land some ground and pound. Miller used great technique by bating Camoes to protect one arm and locked up the other in a tight armbar which made Camoes tapout in the first round.

265 lbs. – Josh Barnett (5-1 UFC) vs. Travis Browne (6-1-1 UFC)

Heading into this fight the odds makers had Josh Barnett as the favourite to win the fight. Browne hasn’t showed truly impressive grappling and Barnett is a master grappler, but everyone seemed to forget that you have to get the fight to the ground first before you can submit anyone. Right from the start of the fight Browne showed crisp striking and solid takedown defense, and as Barnett has Browne pressed up against the cage Browne let loose with devastating elbows to the side of Barnett’s head resulting in the first round TKO finish.

135 lbs. – (C) Ronda Rousey (1-0 UFC) vs. Miesha Tate (0-1 UFC)

In the first match between Rousey and Tate, Rousey was able to secure a fairly easy first round armbar, but Tate was deadest on making sure the same wouldn’t happen this fight. Rousey came out strong showing improved striking skills, but sticking to her Judo background and landing multiple hip tosses which Tate had no answer for. Tate was able to land some good punches and defended well on the ground, but in round 3 Rousey used beautiful technique to get into the armbar position and Tate made sure to tapout quickly this fight.

185 lbs. – (C) Chris Weidman (6-0 UFC) vs. Anderson Silva (16-1 UFC)

This fight was one of the most anticipated fights of all time for the UFC, and although the outcome likely wasn’t what we all expected it still left us in shock like most Silva fights. Right from the weigh in Silva had his hands up and chin down proving to everyone that he was taking this fight seriously. Weidman was the first man to strike though and landed a nice takedown as well as some hard ground and pound to win the first round. Silva then came out blasting Weidman with kicks but Weidman anticipated one, checked it, and we all know the rest as Silva will likely never fight again due to that leg injury.

UFC 168

Parlay Breakdowns

In an effort to accommodate different styles of MMA Bettors I have compiled 7 different possible betting cards to help you maximize your profit depending on what style of gambler you are and how much money you want to allocate to each card.

Big Money Bettors- for players with a higher bankroll willing to put a lot of cash on the line to turn a profit and build a growing account, focusing mainly on single bets and well placed parlays.

Recreational Bettors- for players that will allocate a decent sized bankroll per event, but would rather spread out their bets and try and turn smaller investments into big returns with larger parlays.

For Fun Bettors- for players that are putting a little bit of cash on the line just to have a good time and have no problem playing a high risk parlay hoping to cash that big payday.

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Ronda Rousey to Win in the 1st round $1.87
===================================================
Price: $1.87 x Bet: $150
Payout: $280.50
 
===================================================
Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Ronda Rousey to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $11.80
===================================================
Price: $11.80 x Bet: $25
Payout: $295
 
===================================================
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1: Gleison Tibau by Decision $2.73
===================================================
Price: $2.73 x Bet: $50
Payout: $136.50
 
===================================================
Parlay #4
===================================================
Selection 1: Dustin Poirier to Win inside the distance $2.56
===================================================
Price: $2.56 x Bet: $50
Payout: $128
 
===================================================
Parlay #5
===================================================
Selection 1: John Howard $2.33
===================================================
Price: $2.33 x Bet: $75
Payout: $174.75
 
===================================================
Parlay #6
===================================================
Selection 1: Dustin Poirier $1.50
Selection 2: Josh Barnett $1.55
Selection 3: Gleison Tibau $1.72
===================================================
Price: $4.00 x Bet: $50
Payout: $200
 
===================================================
Parlay #7
===================================================
Selection 1: Robbie Peralta $1.56
Selection 2: Dennis Siver $1.42
Selection 3:
===================================================
Price: $3.68 x Bet: $50
Payout: $184
 
===================================================
Parlay #8
===================================================
Selection 1: Robbie Peralta $1.56
Selection 2: Gleison Tibau $1.72
Selection 3:
===================================================
Price: $4.45 x Bet: $50
Payout: $222.50

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $250

==================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Robbie Peralta $1.56
Selection 2: Gleison Tibau $1.72
Selection 3: Dustin Poirier $1.50
Selection 4: Josh Barnett $1.55
===================================================
Price: $6.24 x Bet: $50
Payout: $312
 
Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: John Howard $2.33
Selection 2: Dennis Siver $1.42
===================================================
Price: $3.31 x Bet: $100
Payout: $331.
 
===================================================
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1: Ronda Rousey to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $11.80
===================================================
Price: $11.80 x Bet: $25
Payout: $295
 
 
Parlay #4
===================================================
Selection 1: Ronda Rousey to Win in the 1st round $1.87
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Gleison Tibau $1.72
===================================================
Price: $5.34 x Bet: $50
Payout: $267
 
Parlay #5
===================================================
Selection 1: Robbie Peralta $1.56
Selection 2: Gleison Tibau $1.72
Selection 1: John Howard $2.33
Selection 4:
===================================================
Price: $10.38 x Bet: $25
Payout: $259.50
 

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $75

===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Siver/ Gamburyan Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.55
Selection 2: Gleison Tibau $1.72
Selection 3: Robbie Peralta $1.56
Selection 4: Josh Barnett $1.55
===================================================
Price: $6.44 x Bet: $25
Payout: $161
 

==================================================

Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2: Ronda Rousey to Win in the 1st round $1.87
Selection 3: John Howard $2.33
Selection 4: Gleison Tibau $1.72
===================================================
Price: $12.44 x Bet: $25
Payout: $311
 
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2: Robbie Peralta $1.56
Selection 3: Dustin Poirier to Win inside the distance $2.56
===================================================
Price: $6.63 x Bet: $25
Payout: $165.75
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Robbie Peralta $1.56 vs

For me I was close to taking Payan, I felt that Peralta got exposed a little in his last fight. When he can’t score the knockout he isn’t nearly as effective. When I went back and watched Payan’s second last Strikeforce bout versus Alonso Martinez, I wasn’t impressed with Estevan’s striking D and if a wrestler like Martinez can land some decent shots, Peralta should be able to as well. Payan’s size could be an issue, but I feel it will be a negative one for him. The speed of Peralta should show up here during the exchanges, allowing him to get off first and then get out of the way. Peralta isn’t a candidate for a single bet here, but I like him for a parlay anchor. Double him up with other viable favs- Tibau, Barnett, Siver and cash in.

William Macario $2.38 vs

I have seen a number of sites picking Macario, and I get it to a certain extent- but his cardio is just so bad. So bad. Unless he wins this fight inside the first round I just don’t see it going down in his favour. Voelker is an experienced veteran, with a very physical style. He hits hard and can grapple. I felt he won the fight with Cote and while he did get off to a slow start, he rallied nicely. For Macario, he may win the first round, but if he gasses like he did in his debut his piece of the puzzle will fit nicely with Voelker’s. As one man traditionally gets tired after the opening frame the other tends to get stronger and pours it on. I like Voelker as part of a parlay bet, combine him with another decent paying fav to build

John Howard $2.33 vs

This is the only upset on the entire card that I am taking and I am a little bit shocked it is still an upset. I just haven’t been that impressed with Siyar. Yes, he stormed onto the UFC scene with a brutal knockout of Paulo Thiago and has a number knockouts on his Pre-Octagon resume, but until he does it with consistency at this level I just don’t feel he deserves to be the fav here. He was utterly torn apart by Dong Hyun Kim and it has been clear throughout his career that the ground game has been his biggest problem. Howard on the other hand isn’t going to win the vacant UFC title or contend for it once the new champion is crowned, but he has all the tools to win this one. His chin is decent (his UFC TKO was do to a badly swollen eye resulting in a doctor stoppage), he has good striking, is equally as heavy handed, but the key is he can and has been using his wrestling more often. He most likely recognized that after getting cut, if he was going to make one more run at the UFC he needed to become a more complete fighter and not just a fire thrower. I would expect that he will come out looking to use his grappling and that should be enough to cement close rounds in ‘Doomsday’s’ favour. I think Johnny D is being slightly undervalued, but more importantly his opponent is being way overvalued. As a result he will be my #1 single play for the card, he offers a lot in return and it should be capitalized on.

Dennis Siver $1.42 vs

Honestly, I don’t see how Manny wins this fight. He is pretty limited on the feet and while he does have power as long as Siver doesn’t get sloppy I don’t foresee Manny G catching him with anything significant. Siver has some pretty stout TDD as well and has shutdown bigger and better grapplers then Gamburyan. I think we see Dennis light him up in the feet and take home a decision. From a betting standpoint I see Siver as a parlay contributor. He would probably best work on a 2-3 fighter card either complimenting a slightly more valuable favourite or with 2 other like-valued favs.

Gleison Tibau $1.72 vs

I saw this written on another site, but I agree 100%. If I hadn’t seen Johnson vs Lauzon, or had it not happened, I would be much more confident in Tibau’s ability to shut this fight down with his wrestling/BJJ and either submit or wrestle his way to a win. Tibau is big, strong, and has good wrestling and very capable BJJ. He lands a lot of takedowns and when his opponent hits there back they infrequently get up, if at all. Johnson is submission prone and has looked horrid with lesser opponent’s on top of him. If Johnson can keep it standing and out work him he could take 2 rounds at the least and take the decision, but I just don’t see it happening. Tibau should recognize the path to victory and the consequences of losing this fight. He shows up and gets the job done. With a lack of underdogs on this card Tibau is a solid single bet here. The line could further move in his favour closer to fight time so if you can hold off until then, do so.

Chris Leben $3.50 vs

I really have next to no interest in betting this fight straight up and you shouldn’t either. Both guys are inconsistent and because of that you never know who you are getting. Is Leben’s chin done? If he lands a big shot will Hall crumple? Will Hall return to form with a massive knockout? Will both guys look like garbage and the judges throw their hands up and call it a draw? I don’t know. I think Hall takes it by being faster, harder to hit, and not suffering the wear and tear of a long career. If I were to consider a bet involving this fight it most likely would be betting the total, I’ll tell you more on that lower down on the page.

Dustin Poirier $1.50 vs

Brandao is dangerous early in the fight when he is fresh and he is a tough nut to crack over a 15 minute bout when he is able to dictate the pace and keep things flowing at a speed that his cardio can handle. He showed a lot of hear gutting out the final round against Pineda, but it also help that he was equally as tired. Poirier on the other hand has been improving sifnificantly and he is more then capable of fighting hard and at a high pace for a full 3 rounds, no problem. His bouts with KZ, Cub, and Koch were all solid scraps and while he only won the last one mentioned, I think he has what it takes to take a win home here. Poirier is a pretty dangerous guy too and I could see him either out working Brandao on the feet or busting him up and possibly submitting him later in the fight when he slows down. Either way, he should take this fight under most scenarios and $1.50 he has decent value and makes for a good 2 fight parlay option with someone like Josh Barnett. That is how I would go about using him here.

Jim Miller $1.28 vs

I wouldn’t go as far as to call this a squash match (WWE style) as Camoes is far from a lame duck, but based one their comparable bodies of work, they are not in the same league. My biggest concern is that Miller gets over aggressive and losses position, allowing Camoes to grab an arm or his neck. I am not saying that is going to happen, but it could. All and all I would just as much pass on betting this fight straight up and instead consider a prop bet or 2. Miller by submission or TKO/KO both pay well and are worth looking at. I will put some more thought into it and post in the prop section.

Josh Barnett $1.55 vs

Many people have pointed at how badly Barnett was dominated by Daniel Cormier in the SF Grand Prix Final for a reason not to back him here. First, Browne is no where near DC’s level of grappling- not even close, he can’t even see it from where he is. Secondly, while some might have cried for an early stoppage, the manner in which JB thrashed Frank Mir on the wall was utterly impressive. Mir is a strong grappler, and he had next to no answer for Barnett in the clinch position. Finally, as I mentioned in my prediction- Browne was getting utterly destroyed in a similar position by Overeem and was nearly finished. The difference being, is that where Overeem tried for the finish with his hands once the fight hit the mat and gassed out, Barnett will be far more meticulous. Most likely he would look to establish positional control, either full mount/ side mount or back mount and then start hunting a submission against a limited fighter on his back. Browne’s chin is far better the Mir’s so I don’t expect him to go down from a big shot or 2, but I can see him getting worn down and dragged to the mat leading to the finish. If not, Barnett most likely takes a decision in impressive fashion- everything I just said but no sub or TKO. I like Barnett as part of my parlay bets, 2-3 fighters with some decent back invested. Barnett + Poirier is something that I am playing around with in my head right now.

Ronda Rousey $1.15 vs

How do you make money off of this fight? Well betting RR straight up won’t cut it. Other then Tate’s fantastic backside, she hasn’t looked that good of late. So here is what I think; Prop bets, two of them. Ronda winning by submission pays $1.25, so no there is not much there. I will go further into detail in the prop section, but Ronda to win inside the first round pays $1.87 which is great value and Ronda to win by TKO/KO/DQ pays $11.80- I will explain more in the prop section.

Chris Weidman $2.38 vs

The former champ is certainly getting respect from the line makers despite getting blasted into oblivion in just under 2 rounds. They must be following the line of thought that had he not clowned, he would have faired much better. This reminds me a little bit of Edgar versus Penn II. Edgar took a close decision in the first fight, many felt controversial, others did not, and he was still a heavy dog in the rematch despite carrying the belt and a win into the second fight, which was far more decisive then the first. For Weidman to take a more decisive victory this time around he would need to win against a Anderson minus the clown show. Let’s hope for our sake that doesn’t happen. I had Chris in the first fight and felt that after a strong first round he was on the verge of getting KOed as he was clearly not executing his game plan and looked befuddled. His shot in the second round looked week and he was following the pattern of previous challengers like Yushin Okami or Chael Sonnen (in round 2) who were simply unable to really pull the trigger. I don’t want to save Silva let him connect, but he certainly didn’t offer up a sound defensive front. Either way, I am not a Silva nuthugger, but to be it just seemed like Weidman was running on fumes right before the KO and I think Silva will come out motivated, survive the early storm, and finish in prime fashion. For betting purposes I don’t mind a mid-sized bet on Silva if you want to take a shot, but I think he would work more effectively as part of a 2 or maybe even 3 fighter parlay. Pairing him up with a combo of other mid-range favs like Peralta, Voelker, Barnett, Poirier, or Siver works for me.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Ronda Rousey $1.15

2. Jim Miller $1.28

3. Dennis Siver $1.42

4. Gleison Tibau $1.72

5. Robbie Peralta $1.56

====================

6. John Howard $2.33

7. Dustin Poirier $1.50

8. Josh Barnett $1.55

9.

10.

11.


 

Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Ronda Rousey to win in the 1st round $1.87 With a lack of solid betting dogs I will use a prop bet here and I am a little surprised that the odds on this outcome are paying so well. Shop around.
2. John Howard $2.33 Not impressed with his opponent, not unwilling to capitalize on an undeserved underdog line.
3. Gleison Tibau $1.72 Solid vet with a smothering ground game against a submission prone low quality bottom player. Next.
4. Robbie Peralta $1.56 Hits like a truck and should have the speed advantage to make it happen.
5. $1.66 One last run for the former champion? Is he motivated to go out on top if he does intend to retire after this fight? We will see.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Chris Leben $3.50 If Hall doesn’t show up prepare for this fight and lets Leben’s non-stop forward push prevent him from throwing his hands (and feet) then he could drop a third and that at the very least makes Leben mildly tempting.
2.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Dennis Siver/

John Howard/

Gleison Tibau to Win by Decision $2.73- Tibau has submission capabilities and Johnson is submission prone. He was submitted just a fight ago and Tibau is coming off a submission win, but I think that Gleison will recognize the importance of not giving up position and focus on keep MJ on his back. Tibau has gone to decision 19 times, 12 times in the UFC, and those are good enough numbers with these odds.

Dustin Poirier to Win inside the distance $2.56- Brandao has a tendency to gas hard and if he does he will be vulnerable to getting finished via some method. Either Poirier follows Pineda’s method and drops bombs from full mount until the ref pulls him off or he slips a d’arce choke on to an exhaust Brandao who puts up next to no resistance. Diego has been stopped 4 times and has 11 finishes.

Jim Miller to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $4.71– While Miller doesn’t have big knockout numbers, he should have a marked advantage on the feet and if he gains top position I can see him dropping shots until Camoes relents.

Ronda Rousey to Win in the 1st Round $1.87- All of Rousey’s wins have come inside the first round and I don’t expect anything different here. Tate put up a decent fight in the first round, but she hasn’t looked that great of late and will most likely succumb to another early finish for the Champ.

Ronda Rousey to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $11.80- This line is too easy to pass on. Yes Ronda all of her fights, pro and exhibition, by armbar, but I see potential here for something different. Rousey had Tate’s back in the last fight and was dropping shots to the point where the ref was taking a close look at stopping it. They weren’t hard shots but they were unanswered. I could see Ronda wanting to make a statement and attempt to shake that one trick pony moniker with her first TKO stoppage, especially if she gets Tate’s back. Additionally, at over $11 it wouldn’t take much of an investment to pull in some big cash.

Anderson Silva to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $2.40- I don’t see Anderson taking this fight the distance and coming away with a win. A submission win is a slight possibility, but I don’t really expect it. He wins this fight by knockout if he wins it at all.