UFC 167: St-Pierre vs. Hendricks – Podcast and Bet Pack

 

Scott Johnson


UFC 167

Parlay Breakdowns

In an effort to accommodate different styles of MMA Bettors I have compiled 7 different possible betting cards to help you maximize your profit depending on what style of gambler you are and how much money you want to allocate to each card.

Big Money Bettors- for players with a higher bankroll willing to put a lot of cash on the line to turn a profit and build a growing account, focusing mainly on single bets and well placed parlays.

Recreational Bettors- for players that will allocate a decent sized bankroll per event, but would rather spread out their bets and try and turn smaller investments into big returns with larger parlays.

For Fun Bettors- for players that are putting a little bit of cash on the line just to have a good time and have no problem playing a high risk parlay hoping to cash that big payday.

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1:
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Price: $4.75 x Bet: $100
Payout: $475
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1:
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Price: $2.69 x Bet: $100
Payout: $269
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Josh Koscheck $2.10
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Price: $2.10 x Bet: $60
Payout: $126
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1:
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Price: $2.60 x Bet: $60
Payout: $156
 
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Parlay #5
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Selection 1:
Selection 2:
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Price: $3.40 x Bet: $75
Payout: $255
 
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Parlay #6
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Thales Leites $1.50
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Price: $4.04 x Bet: $75
Payout: $303
 
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Parlay #7
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Selection 1: Georges St-Pierre $1.44
Selection 2:
Selection 3:
Selection 4: Josh Koscheck $2.10
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Price: $7.71 x Bet: $30
Payout: $231.30
 

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $250

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1:
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Price: $4.75 x Bet: $75
Payout: $356.25
 
Parlay #2
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Selection 1:
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Price: $2.69 x Bet: $50
Payout:
 
Parlay #3
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Selection 1:
Selection 2:
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Price: $3.40 x Bet: $40
Payout: $136
 
Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Josh Koscheck $2.10
Selection 2: Thales Leites $1.50
Selection 3:
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Price: $8.47 x Bet: $40
Payout: $338.94
 
Parlay #5
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Georges St-Pierre $1.44
Selection 3: Thales Leites $1.50
Selection 4:
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Price: $5.51 x Bet: $45
Payout: $247.95
 

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $100 

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Georges St-Pierre $1.44
Selection 3: Thales Leites $1.50
Selection 4:
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Price: $5.51 x Bet: $50
Payout: $275.50
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1:
Selection 2:
Selection 3:
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Price: $25.56 x Bet: $20
Payout: $511.20
 
Parlay #3
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Selection 1:
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Josh Koscheck $2.10
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Price: $9.60 x Bet: $30
Payout: $288.10

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Cody Donovan $3.85 vs

Villante hasn’t really met his potential, even when he is winning, but with the division so thin, he should be safe even with a loss here. He has all the potential to do well and dominate this fight, but his lack of consistency is so off-putting that I just don’t see the value here. Similar to High vs Lapsley the only type of bets that intrigues me is a prop bet on the under, check that section to see if it officially made the cut.

Sergio Pettis $1.23 vs

I do believe that a correct prediction here would make Will ‘the thrill’ Campuzano my biggest upset pick to date. How much of this line is coming from Sergio’s last name? Fans see Pettis, they associate it with Anthony (he does look a lot like him) and then they bet accordingly. Its all about public perception. For me, Pettis is unproven and while he has looked good, he is taking a major step up against a very good opponent. Campuzano is a WEC/UFC vet and has turned himself into one of the top 125er on the market and although this is a fight at 135, Pettis has fought mainly as a Flyweight too. Don’t let Wills 1-4 record under Zuffa fool you. He fought a very good Eddie Wineland, a scrappy Damacio Page, and pushed Chris Cariaso to the bring in a split decision. I think Campuzano’s scrappy style is enough for him to out work Pettis and while it may be close, he takes it in the end. I like Campuzano for large single bet. The value is there and its hard not to take a shot at it based on the circumstance.

Jason High $1.35 vs

High wins in almost all scenarios. He is the better grappler, the better striker, he has more experience, and Lapsley has some submission defense issues. Anyone that is on Lapsley is there riding on a wing and a prayer. I’ll pass on a straight up bet and consider playing the under on a prop bet.

Edwin Figueroa $3.75 vs Eri

In all reality I might make a small bet on Perez, but for the most part I will be passing on this fight based purely on a lack of value. I don’t like Figueroa as a fighter, but he does throw heat and if he lands on a young over confident opponent it could be lights out. Perez on the other hand should be able to uses his grappling to dominate on the mat or volume striking to wear down Figs. My rec is to just sit back and enjoy an entertaining fire fight.

Brian Ebersole $2.81 vs

Rick Story has gone from the next big thing, to the next big inconsistent thing. He can’t seem to get things moving in the right direction to build any real momentum in the division. Ebersole was cruising along winning a number of fights in a row, before dropping a fight to James Head and then disappearing for over a year. Stylistically, Story should be a nightmare for Ebersole. Unless Brian can get on top, he is going to struggle to out point the aggressive fire throwing wrestler. My play here is similar to the next play, use Story on your parlays, but be careful, Ebersole usually performs best when the expectations are low. Story should win, but the value keeps him from being a top ranked play.

Thales Leites $1.50 vs

‘Short Fuse’, to me, just looks burnt out. His bout with Trevor Smith was great, really an enjoyable one, and to Herman’s skills or at least his ability to execute them are diminishing. Leites is a sharp grappler and is the type of fighter that traditionally given Herman difficulties. If Herman can make this a dirty brawl he can certainly wear down Leites and press on his already questionable cardio, but I just don’t see him staying vertical long enough for that to happen. If Shields could take Ed down and dominate him, I think Leites can too. On the feet Thales is better then most give him credit for and that will show up. Leites at $1.40 to $1.50 is a parlay bet only. He doesn’t offer enough for me to consider a single bet, but he does give you an option for mixing up your parlays and avoiding putting too many eggs in one basket.

Donald Cerrone $1.77 vs

Cerrone has never lost back to back fights in his career. He always comes back stronger after a lose. The ‘no matter what’ cut to Featherweight is an interesting element. I don’t expect Cerrone to be disinterested by any stretch of the imagination as he knows that win over Dunham makes him a bigger deal moving to 145. At the same time, he struggles with fighters that don’t give ground, which is Dunham to a tee. I think this bout will be close early, but as Dunham keeps pushing forward, Cerrone will slow down. I also expect to see Evan looking for takedowns in a similar fashion to what RDA did. I think the opponent profile scenario outweighs the ‘no B2B losses’ scenario. Dunham is at $2.oo, maybe a little less depending where you are betting. I like him as part of a parlay, with Elliot, Kos, maybe as part of a bigger parlay containing GSP or Rick Story. I also really like the over in this fight as both are tough to finish and aren’t known for their finishing skills.

Ali Bagautinov $2.28 vs

The Russian looked decent in his debut, but I’m not that high on his opponent so coloured me mildly impressed, but nothing that glowing. Elliott on the other hand held his own against Dodson, overwhelmed Papazian, and blew the doors off of Gaudinot. Ali is undersized, even for 125, and he doesn’t have the blistering speed that small guys usually work with to overcome this issue. If he can get consistent top control on Timmy then we are talking, but with Elliott’s size, wrestling, and pressure I just don’t see it happening. As far as power is concerned, Elliott has shown a great beard. He took some big shots from Dodson, and each of his last 2 adversaries and showed no effects. I think Elliott’s work rate will be just too much for his opponent and he takes this fight, getting more and more dominant with each round. I like these $1.65-$1.75 range favourites, my play here is a 2 fighter parlay. Kos, Dunham, or Elliot, GSP and one of Kos or Dunham works for me.

Josh Koscheck $2.10 vs

Kos’s back is against the wall here, against basically a younger version of himself. Yes there are differences, but there are many similarities that I won’t get into here. Woodley has never really impressed me. His fight with Marquardt was the closest he came and although the KO of Hieron was pretty sweet, it don’t find flash KOs that huge until you start wracking them up in 2s, 3s, and more like ‘Big Rigg’. Woodley should have been able to beat Jake Shields considering he went a perfect 18 for 18 defending takedowns, but he couldn’t create enough separation to do much of anything. This fight could be close early and one big shot could end it, but as we get into the 2nd and 3rd round look for Kos to take over with his cardio. If Woodley can’t win the first frame, he will be in tough to do much later in the fight. Kos will put Woodley into the cage and on his back to take a decision or potentially late stoppage. Kos is hovering around even, but if you shop around you can grab him above $2.00, with $2.10 currently the ceiling. I think Kos qualifies for a mid-range to upper bet. Maybe working Kos with GSP or Dunham would serve a solid parlay as well.

Robbie Lawler $3.75 vs

Rory didn’t blow the doors of Ellenberger, but he neutralized him which is still impressive. Robbie looked a little more human against Bobby Voelker, but he still got the job done. Rory has too many avenues to win this fight compared to Lawler either needing the finish or 2 near finishes, in 2 separate rounds to take a decision. Rory either out points him or grounds him with his wrestling attack. With all that being considered, I don’t intend to invest in this fight. Robbie has night night power and only needs one, so I’ll just enjoy either the continued growth of a young star or continued return to prominence of a long standing vet.

Rashad Evans $1.54 vs

This is a solid fight that I am really looking forward to. Neither man is really in the title hunt, unless they drop down to 185. Maybe Rashad can get back there with 3-4 solid performances, but this fight would only get him half way there. Sonnen doesn’t get the respect he deserves, as many see him as a blown up 185er. Much to the contrary, he is a decent sized 205er, bigger then Evans. We really haven’t see Rashad forced to work off his back that much and while that has a lot to do with his defensive work, I think Chael can break through it. Tito had success pressuring Rashad and took him down. Unfortunately, Tito didn’t have enough in the gas to carry it out for the full fight. That won’t be a problem with Chael. If he wasn’t afraid to attack Anderson full speed ahead, he won’t hesitate to double leg Rashad or grind him into the cage. Evans looked bad against Little Nog and wasn’t really that strong versus Hendo. I think the pressure Chael brings will be a lot for Evans to deal with. Hendo had a lot of success with pressure and I think Chael will take it further. At this point in time Sonnen is looking like he will be my #2 play of the night with, but the investment could be just as big as the #1 play.

Georges St-Pierre $1.44 vs

Will the great GSP finally fall? I will be honest with you, I was close to taking the upset. Georges has to execute a solid game plan to win this fight. Fortunately, he almost always brings a solid game plan to the cage. I expect him to bring a combination of his Thiago Alves and Josh Koscheck game plans. Look for a jab heavy assault, trying to keep Hendricks out of power range. Then GSP takes the fight to the ground where he works a heavy top game to wear our Hendricks arms, fill them full of blood, and take all the pop out of his punches. If Hendricks can negate this with his wrestling defense and ability to get inside and land then it will all be for not. We normally don’t see this decent a line on ‘Rush’ so it might be worth it to double or triple him up with a 2 other decent paying favourites. The other option is to consider a play on Hendricks. If you are backing Hendricks, play the dog, if you like the champ, triple it up. I personally, will be on GSP, but both are solid bets in their own way.

 


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1.

2. Jason High $1.35

3. Thales Leites $1.50

4.

5. Georges St-Pierre $1.44

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6.

7. Eri

8.

9.

10.

11. Josh Koscheck $2.10

12.


 

Kamikaze Overdrive Fighter Prediction Records

Event Prediction Record:

Best Prediction Record:

Worst Prediction Record:

Best Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights):

Worst Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights):

Main Card

 

Preliminary Card

 


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Will Campuzano $4.75 He is better then his Zuffa record suggests and has more value then I have seen in a while. Pettis is good, but young, inexperienced, and undersized.
2. $2.69 Chael will pressure and grind Rashad to a decision win, hit him up, but maybe wait until bell time to catch an up swing in the price.
3. $2.00 Dunham is a bit of a slow starter, but when he gets it going he will pressure Dunham and keep him backtracking on route to a decision win.
4. Josh Koscheck $2.10 His back is against the wall and another defeat could spell the end of his UFC run. Woodley is overrated and he showed in against Shields.
5. $1.70 The dark horse of the 125 division, Elliot’s chin, work rate, and size will carry this fight. He is the favourite, but the value is there.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Cody Donovan $3.85 Villante is known for losing fights that based on his talent he should win. With Donovan’s near $4 value he might be worth a look.
2. Brian Ebersole $2.81 I did say you could include Story in your parlay bets, but he shouldn’t key cog in your plays. Ebersole is feisty and if Story continues to struggle the Hairrow may rise again.
3. $2.75 Hendricks most likely has the best chance of any of GSP’s recent opponents. If you want to guarantee a live and worthwhile bet for the main event make a small play on ‘Big Rigg’, especially if he gets over $3.00.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Cody Donovan/

Jason High/

Evan Dunham to Win by Decision $2.91- Cerrone isn’t finished easily, and Dunham has only 1 finish in recent memory. My expectation is that Dunham can hunt ‘Cowboy’, but unlike Pettis, he won’t be able to finish him. Take the decision to raise his value by close to a dollar.

Evan Dunham/Donald Cerrone Total Rounds Over 2.5- Pretty much for the same reason as above, the value won’t be as good, but it covers a decision win by both fighters.

Josh Koscheck/

Robbie Lawler/

Rory MacDonald Wins by Decision $2.60- I am a little shocked at how well this play, of all the props play this one hard.

Chael Sonnen/Rashad Evans Total Round Over 2.5- Both can finish, and both have been finished, but I don’t see it happening either way so play the over.

Georges St-Pierre/

Georges St-Pierre to Win by Decisions $1.77- Is this going to be the finish that GSP is looking for? Probably not, unless Hendricks tires and Georges gets on him late for a TKO or Sub, but his track record speaks for itself. I suggested a single bet on Hendricks straight up for this fight, but GSP on points is the other single bet option.