UFC 166: Velasquez vs. Dos Santos 3: Results and Bet Pack

Josh Harper

Facebook Prelims

135 lbs. – Dustin Pague (1-4 UFC) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (0-0 UFC) – Horiguchi via TKO

Pague was able to take Horiguchi’s back, work for submissions and stole the 1st round. Horiguchi then came out quickly in the 2nd by rocking Pague with left hooks and finished him with ground and pound.

145 lbs. – Jeremy Larsen (0-2 UFC) vs. Andre Fili (0-0 UFC) – Fili via TKO

Larsen showed heart by taking a ton of damage and still throwing back any chance he could, but Fili was much too fast and accurate for Larsen. Fili rocked Larsen early into round 2 and finished him with g&p.

155 lbs. – Tony Ferguson (3-1 UFC) vs. Mike Rio (1-1 UFC) – Ferguson via submission

Ferguson proved he’s still a dangerous Lightweight as he picked apart Rio on the feet and once Rio tried to make it a grappling match Ferguson met him with a beautiful d’arce choke to get the finish in round 1.

 170 lbs. – TJ Waldburger (4-2 UFC) vs. Adlan Amagov (1-0 UFC) – Amagov via KO

Waldburger was never really able to get much going in this fight as it was clear he didn’t like the power of Amagov. Amagov rocked Waldburger with punches from the clinch and finished him with heavy g&p.

Fox Sports Prelims

155 lbs. – George Sotiropoulos (7-3 UFC) vs. KJ Noons (0-1 UFC) – Noons via U. decision

Noons was able to stuff all but 1 takedown attempt from Sotiropoulos, and also won the majority of the striking exchanges with his crisp boxing, footwork and head movement.

135 lbs. – #2 Sarah Kaufman (0-0 UFC) vs. Jessica Eye (0-0 UFC) – Eye via S. decision

Eye landed the more effective strikes for the first 2 rounds. Kaufman came back strong in the 3rd with her own hard punches, but it was enough to impress the judges.

170 lbs. – Nate Marquardt (10-5 UFC) vs. Hector Lombard (1-2 UFC) – Lombard via KO

It was clear that Marquardt was fearful of the power punches from Lombard, and once Lombard had Marquardt hurt he rushed in for the finish with heavy ground and pound.

185 lbs. – #9 Tim Boetsch (7-5 UFC) vs. C.B. Dollaway (7-4 UFC) – Boetsch via S. decision

Boetsch had to work through 2 bad eye pokes to earn a decision over Dollaway. Boetsch stuffed takedowns and walked down Dollaway with hard punches and kicks to get the win.

 

Main Card

125 lbs. – #2 John Dodson (3-1 UFC) vs. Darrell Montague (0-0 UFC) – Dodson via KO

Dodson used great footwork moving in and out landing several hard hooks that dropped Montague twice. Dodson got the KO when Montague landed flat on his face after a right hand from Dodson.

265 lbs. – Gabriel Gonzaga (10-6 UFC) vs. Shawn Jordan (3-1 UFC) – Gonzaga via TKO

Both men were trading punches early on and using good head movement, but Jordan became impatient and rushed forward with an uppercut and Gonzaga countered with a hard right hook to drop Jordan.

155 lbs. – #2 Gilbert Melendez (0-1 UFC) vs. Diego Sanchez (13-5 UFC) – Melendez via U. decision

This fight will go down as one of the greatest in UFC history as Melendez and Sanchez traded punches and knockdowns for 3 rounds. Sanchez won the 3rd round, but Melendez clearly won the 1st and 2nd.

265 lbs. – #2 Daniel Cormier (1-0 UFC) vs. #9 Roy Nelson (6-4 UFC) – Cormier via U. decision

Cormier landed a few takedowns in this fight, but he mostly out struck Nelson for 3 rounds. Nelson was never in serious danger, but he couldn’t land his big overhand right to turn the tide of the fight.

265 lbs. – (C) Cain Velasquez (10-1 UFC) vs. #1 Junior dos Santos (10-1 UFC) – Velasquez via TKO

Dos Santos rocked Velasquez during the very first exchange in round 1, but Velasquez kept pressing forward and it was all him from there as he used great clinch control and striking to beat up Dos Santos.

Parlay Breakdowns

In an effort to accommodate different styles of MMA Bettors I have compiled 7 different possible betting cards to help you maximize your profit depending on what style of gambler you are and how much money you want to allocate to each card.

Big Money Bettors- for players with a higher bankroll willing to put a lot of cash on the line to turn a profit and build a growing account, focusing mainly on single bets and well placed parlays.

Recreational Bettors- for players that will allocate a decent sized bankroll per event, but would rather spread out their bets and try and turn smaller investments into big returns with larger parlays.

For Fun Bettors- for players that are putting a little bit of cash on the line just to have a good time and have no problem playing a high risk parlay hoping to cash that big payday.

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Gabriel Gonzaga $3.20
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Price: $3.20 x Bet: $100
Payout: $320
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1:
===================================================
Price: $2.41 x Bet: $50
Payout: $120.50
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1:
===================================================
Price: $2.64 x Bet: $50
Payout: $132
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: KJ Noons $1.64
Selection 2:
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Price: $2.53 x Bet: $100
Payout: $253
 
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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Adlan Amagov $1.62
Selection 2: Tim Boetsch $1.59
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Price: $2.58 x Bet: $75
Payout: $193.50
 
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Parlay #6
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Selection 1: Cain Velasquez $1.53
Selection 2: Gabriel Gonzaga $3.20
Selection 3: KJ Noons $1.64
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Price: $8.03 x Bet: $50
Payout: $401.50
 
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Parlay #7
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Selection 1: Tim Boetsch $1.59
Selection 2: Adlan Amagov $1.62
Selection 3:
Selection 4: Cain Velasquez $1.53
Selection 5: KJ Noons $1.64
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Price: $9.95 x Bet: $75
Payout: $746.25

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Gabriel Gonzaga $3.20
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Price: $3.20 x Bet: $50
Payout: $160
 
Parlay #2
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Selection 1:
Selection 2:
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Price: $6.36 x Bet: $30
Payout: $190.80
 
Parlay #3
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Selection 1: KJ Noons $1.64
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Adlan Amagov $1.62
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Price: $4.09 x Bet: $40
Payout: $163.60
 
Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Gabriel Gonzaga $3.20
Selection 2: Cain Velasquez $1.53
Selection 3: Tim Boetsch $1.59
Selection 4: KJ Noons $1.64
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Price: $12.77 x Bet: $40
Payout: $510.80
 
Parlay #5
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Tim Boetsch $1.59
Selection 3:
Selection 4: Andre Fili $1.53
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Price: $9.03 x Bet: $40
Payout: $361.20
 

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Gabriel Gonzaga $3.20
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Cain Velasquez $1.53
Selection 4: Tim Boetsch $1.59
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Price: x $18.76 Bet: $15
Payout: $281.40
 

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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: KJ Noons $1.64
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Adlan Amagov $1.62
Selection 4: Tim Boetsch $1.59
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Price: $6.51 x Bet: $25
Payout: $162.75
 
Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Gabriel Gonzaga $3.20
Selection 2:
Selection 3: KJ Noons $1.64
Selection 4:
Selection 5: Tim Boetsch $1.59
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Price: $33.92 x Bet: $10
Payout: $339.20
 
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Andre Fili $1.53 vs

With Fili taking this fight on late notice that is a little bit of a concern, but he comes from an excellent camp. Larsen is cutting to FW for the first time which can be just as big an issue. For me I might consider taking a shot on Fili as part of a 2 fighter parlay or added on to an already existing 2 fighter parlay. There are a few red flags here which will probably curtail my investments to the minimal side of the ledger.

Kyogi Horiguchi $1.59 vs

Upset 1 of 3 on this card. I don’t like Dustin Pague as a fighter, but he did impress me in his last fight and I think that he has the skill set to get the job done here. Horiguchi is undersize, making his debut, and making his first appearance outside of Tokyo. Additionally, his cardio is a bit of an problem and his grappling defense has proven to be his undoing in previous difficult fights. Horiguchi is still young, but it is hard to overlook the lack of success of past striking based Japanese fighters like Takanori Gomi and Kid Yamamotto. I was impressed with Pague’s ability to take down and control Jabouin, who is very good striker in his own right. His chin and ability to take damage is concerning, but I think that if he can get by Horiguchi’s opening few minutes, he has a great chance to win this fight. He, like Marquardt, are average plays for under dogs and should be bet accordingly. I would suggest a mid-sized bet.

Tony Ferguson $1.26 vs

This is a No play for me. I really don’t see that much to get excited about as far betting is concerned. Tony’s has minimal value and he has been out of action for a long time. I’m not a huge Mike Rio fan and would be shocked if he pulled the upset. I’ll pass here either way.

Adlan Amagov $1.62 vs

Amagov’s striking is better and his Sambo should keep him out of trouble. Waldburger is one of my favourite fighters to watch, on account of his aggressive submission game. Unfortunately, he isn’t durable en0ugh to survive taking lot of damage over long fight. So what this equates to is a diminishing point of returns on his ability to win this fight. I would suggest outside of the first round his ability to score a submission is minimal (2 of 13 sub wins in round 2, o in round 3). Amagov just needs to avoid getting submitted early and he should be able to do enough damage with his hands and legs to win this fight, potentially via stoppage. Just like the next couple of fighters, pair him up with another $1.50 range fighter in a 2 fighter unit to bet on.

KJ Noons $1.64 vs G

Noons, like Kaufman next, are strong plays for me. I think that Noons has what it takes to make G-Sots’s BJJ a non-factor in this fight. Noons will stuff the takedowns and land either one big shot or a slick combo that finishes this fight on account of George’s weak chin. Noons isn’t the elite level striker that he was touted as in Strikeforce, but he is more then good enough to win this fight. He is an excellent play and wash, rinse, repeat, he should be paired up with the likes of Kaufman, Velasquez, Amagov, or Boetsch in mini 2 fight parlays that will produce a payout in the range of $2.20-$2.50 X your bet.

Jessica Eye $2.55 vs

I am going to get very repetitive during these breakdowns, as a number of these fights fall into the same category as this one. I like Kaufman to win, I think Eye is a great fighter but she really is more suited for 125 and it shows up here. Kaufman is a better striker, hits harder and hits more frequently. I won’t spend too much time here, I think Kaufman is another play that should be double up with a second favourite in the same price range.

Hector Lombard $1.65 vs

Upset 2 of 3 on this card. I was on Lombard originally, but the combination of his inconsistency and my expectation (that have been reinforced by recent reports) of a bad weight cut. Nate has chin issues and Lombard hits like a Mack truck so if those two forces collide it won’t be good for ‘the Great’. Marquardt also does some of his best work from close range and that could cost him if he gets tagged in tight. Taking all of that into consideration, I think that the window for Lombard to land that big KO shot will get smaller and smaller with every second ticking off and eventually disappear based on cardio. He was hesitant versus Okami and struggled against Boetsch. If Nate can use his speed to bounce around and keep out of range I think Lombard gasses hard after a round and will be in trouble the rest of the way. Nate had to be feeling some pressure in his re-debut versus Ellenberger and I expect to see some improvements and a more comfortable fighter this time around. I don’t have Nate as my #1 pick and he certainty isn’t up there as far as top upset picks of all time, but I think as far as this card is concerned he has some value. I would place him in the mid-range better bracket.

Tim Boetsch $1.59 vs

The late opponent change is a bit of a pain, but I don’t foresee it being that significant. I like Boetsch in this spot. Dollaway hasn’t shown a strong enough MMA wrestling game to give Timmy the same difficulties as Munoz or Davis did. On the feet, CB is improving, but he leaves too many openings and isn’t aggressive enough. He was in trouble the with combination of striking and physical strength against Sarafian, and had he not landed that one fight changing shot late in round 2 he probably drops the decision. Boetsch is a pretty decent striker and mixes things up well with his kicks. Additionally, he is a physical handful and that should be enough to keep Dollaway at bay and provide T-Bo at chance to test Dollaway’s chin. Betting on this fight should be done in pairs. I think that Boetsch, along with another $1.50+ betting favourite would make for a solid 2 fight parlay.

John Dodson $1.31 vs

The value on little John is headed south. He is an elite level fighter and he showcased it against the champion in his last fight. Montague is a top ranked prospect and a great addition to the division, but he is getting no love from the line makers. I don’t foresee making a bet on Dodson. He just pays too little, although he should win this fight with limit problems. There are better paying favourites, along with some interesting dogs on this card and that is where your money should be allocated.

Gabriel Gonzaga $3.20 vs

The numbers are changing on this fight, but unless the most drastic drop in betting history takes place over the next couple of days, I will be on Gabe Gonzaga. Of the two fighters he has the best overall skill set, grappling, and that should be the deciding factor. Gonzaga has struggled with next level competition over his career, but that was when he thought he was a striker. Now he has gone back to his grappling base and unless his ultra fast knockout of Dave Herman convinces him otherwise, he should be shooting on Jordan inside the first 60, maybe even 30 seconds. Jordan doesn’t come from a wrestling background and while he is coming along nicely in his development as a mixed martial artist, I struggled to believe that he will be able to hang with GG on the mat. My guess is that these odds were set by people who viewed GG’s big knockout numbers and combined that information with Jordan’s KO capabilities. What they didn’t look at is that Gonzaga’s knockouts have all come in fights where he elected to strike (Browne’s knockout excluded) and when he focusses more on grappling his opponents have almost no success landing big shots. Jordan has struggled with grappling attacks in the past. He had almost no answer for anything that Kongo did and Russow was all over him until he gassed out. Gabe doesn’t have the best cardio, which is a concern if he can’t finish the fight and exhaust himself in the process, but I am willing to risk it. Additionally, as was the case versus Russow early on, Jordan will be so zeroed in on defending takedowns that his striking defense will suffer and create openings for GG to land big shots. Jordan’s chin isn’t the greatest either and if Gabe lands one of his big hammers it could be lights out before the fight his the mat. I really like GG and think he should be one of if not your biggest play on the evening. Additionally, I think that there is prop bet that is in play here. More on that later.

Gilbert Melendez $1.23 vs

I am not a big El Nino fan, but he is a legit elite contender in the division that will most likely be challenging for the title in the not too distant future. For Diego, I think he is trapped between two unfit divisions. He is a little small for a Welterweight and making 155 and dealing with the speed (now that he is slowing down a bit) is not a good thing either. He would probably benefit from a 160-165 pound division, but that doesn’t exist. Moving on. I just don’t see Sanchez having much success in this fight. Old Diego might have been able to outwork Gilbert, but he seems to reserved and unwilling to go after it now. Even if he did push the pace, Gilbert is a veteran fighter and knows how to deal that type of attack. This line is turning down if you are a Gilbert backer (87% of you are), so for me its a no play. Gilbert will win, but the risk/reward just isn’t there. No Play.

Daniel Cormier $1.20 vs

This line is dropping and I have no interest in playing it on either side. I don’t see Nelson having what it takes to beat Cormier as DC fits the general mold of the type of fighter that usually tops Big Country. On the other side of things I think DC is too focussed on LHW and Jon Jones. Additionally, I wasn’t impressed with his debut performance and there is always the Frank Mir curse as well. What is the Frank Mir curse you might ask? I don’t really believe in it, but if you search around enough of the big forums you will find out soon enough. No Play.

Cain Velasquez $1.53 vs

Third time is a charm, right? I’m 0-2 so far in my attempts to pick this pairing of fighters. Oddly enough, my predictions, if switched with how the coinciding fight played out would have been pretty accurate. But, let’s toss all of that out the window and get to work on UFC 166’s edition of this fight. I do believe Cain that is going to retain his title. JDS did offer us a number of excuses as to why fight 2 played out the way it did, but I am just not buying it. His win, while impressive, was a flash knockout that came before either fighter really settled in. If JDS is able to replicate that scenario again, sure he could win, but the window for that to happen is so small and gets slammed shut fairly quickly. All Cain has to do is avoid that big shot early on, out Junior on his back or at the very least under duress and his cardio and ability to score the KO will drop right off the table. I took Cain by TKO, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him score a submission either. I just don’t see Junior being able to hold off the pressure of Cain and land that big shot before he starts to get exhausted/ broken down by the relentless GnP. I could be wrong, we know I have been before, but I am comfortable sticking with my prediction. For betting purposes I don’t see Cain being a great single bet, but when you look at the entire card there are a tonne (6) of these $1.50+ favs that combined together in 2 fight parlays will make for some decent returns. Play Cain + another fav for your best bets.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. KJ Noons $1.64

2.

3. Gilbert Melendez $1.23

4. Daniel Cormier $1.20

5. John Dodson $1.31

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6. Adlan Amagov $1.62

7. Cain Velasquez $1.53

8. Tim Boetsch $1.59

9. Tony Ferguson $1.26

10. Gabriel Gonzaga $3.20

11. Andre Fili $1.53

12.

13.


Kamikaze Overdrive Fighter Prediction Records

Event Prediction Record: 68-25-0 73%

Best Prediction Record: K.J. Noons 5-0-0

Worst Prediction Record: Shawn Jordan 1-3-0

Best Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights): K.J. Noons vs. George Sotiropoulos 9-0-0

Worst Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights): Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shawn Jordan 5-4-0, Hector Lombard vs. Nate Marquardt 5-4-0, Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos 6-5-0

Main Card

Cain Velasquez (3-2-0) vs. Junior Dos Santos (3-3-0)

Daniel Cormier (4-1-0) vs. Roy Nelson (7-1-0)

Gilbert Melendez (3-1-0) vs. Diego Sanchez (3-1-0)

Gabriel Gonzaga (4-1-0) vs. Shawn Jordan (1-3-0)

John Dodson (4-0-0) vs. Darrell Montague (0-0-0)

Prelims

Tim Boetsch (5-2-0) vs. CB Dollaway (3-1-0)

Hector Lombard (1-2-0) vs. Nate Marquardt (4-2-0)

Jessica Eye (0-0-0) vs. Sarah Kaufman (2-0-0)

K.J. Noons (5-0-0) vs. George Sotiropoulos (4-0-0)

Adlan Amagov (2-1-0) vs. T.J. Waldburger (3-0-0)

Tony Ferguson (3-1-0) vs. Mike Rio (1-1-0)

Andre Fili (0-0-0) vs. Jeremy Larsen (2-0-0)

Kyogi Horiguchi (0-0-0) vs. Dustin Pague (3-2-0)


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Gabriel Gonzaga $3.20 Even if GG drops in price he will remain my #1 play. He has great BJJ and Jordan is in trouble under pressure on the mat. Take the money and run.
2. $2.41 Just too many unknowns surrounding his opponent and Pague is getting overlooked here, despite coming off an impressive performance against a tough veteran that he arguably won.
3. $2.64 Nate isn’t getting much love here and for me Hector hasn’t shown that ability to compete with next level competition. Survive the opening round and ‘the Great’ will be in the driver’s seat.
4. KJ Noons $1.64 Not the typical upset minded play here for the #4 spot, but I really think that Noons has this fight relativel easily and is getting a higher price then I expected him to.
5. Adlan Amagov $1.62 AA is in the same boat as KJ, a solid fav with some value. He needs to be on his game for the first round to avoid that early sub threat, but this is his fight to win and the value is decent.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Roy Nelson $4.90 I did list this fight as a no play and I really struggle to see how Cormier losses this bout, but based purely on value, which appears to be increasing. I might consider a small play on ‘Big Country’.
2.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Adlan Amagov/

KJ Noons/ G

Jessica Eye/

Hector Lombard/

Tim Boetsch to win by KO/TKO/DQ Timmy hits hard and CB is a little on the chinny side. Depending on what book you use, you might be able to grab this pick and increase the value on Boetsch for a single bet.

Gabriel Gonzaga/

Gilbert Melendez to Win by Decision- $1.65 Diego is a tough SOB to put away and while Gilbert is capable of doing it, I think that this fight goes the distance and this picks will add some value to your Melendez play if you want to get involved in this fight financially.

Daniel Cormier to Win by Decision $1.74- The same logic here as in the fight above. I just do not see Cormier finishing Nelson and he will probably pay well enough on your book to make this prop bet worth considering.