UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson: Results and Bet Pack

Scott Johnson

Jon Jones became the most successful UFC Light Heavyweight champion in UFC history, surpassing Tito Ortiz, but his record sixth title defense did not come easy. Conversely, Renan Barao quickly took care of former WEC champ Eddie Wineland with a second round TKO, moving one step closer to claiming the undisputed Bantamweight title. UFC 165 saw a couple of upset, including 3 top 10 ranked fighters falling, while new prospects took their place. Let’s take a look at the event.

HW-  Daniel Omielanczuk def. Nandor Guelmino- TKO

Both men had their moments, with Omielanczuk getting the best of it in the final round. Neither guy is going to be knocking on the top 10 list any time soon, but with the lack of depth in the division they should both get another shot.

BW- Alex Caceres def. Roland Delorme- Split Dec.

This fight played out as I expected it, with Caceres fending off Delorme’s grappling attack early and then taking advantage of a tired opponent in rounds 2 and 3. I didn’t see it as a split, 29-28 Caceres across the board. Both guys are entertaining to watch- Caceres vs Chico Camus and Delorme vs Dustin Kimura.

LW- Michel Prazeres def. Jesse Ronson- Split Dec.

Ronson couldn’t keep on his feet long enough to have an impact until it was too late and he was too far behind on the scorecards. Prazeres stays employed because he won and Ronson should get another shot on a Canadian card after taking this fight on short notice.

LW-  John Makdessi def. Renee Forte- KO

Makdessi looked fantastic and quickly dispatched Forte inside the first round. Forte is 1-2 in the UFC with his only win coming over a guy no longer with the company and LW is stacked. I think he fights elsewhere next time or at best on the prelims of a Brazil card. John Makdessi continues to be Canada’s second best 155er, Makdessi vs Takanori Gomi would be a great fight.

BW- Mitch Gagnon def. Dustin Kimura- Sub

Great win for Gagnon, especially considering he was returning after a year long layoff due to a knee injury and was clearly hurt by a body shot from Kimura. Gagnon is powerful for BW and as long as his cardio holds up he is a handful for most of the division. Kimura suffers the first defeat of his career, but he is a young prospect and division isn’t overflowing so he will get another chance. Gagnon vs fellow UFC 165 winner Wilson Reis would be an interesting scrap. Kimura vs Delorme as previously mentioned.

WW- Stephen Thompson def. Chris Clements- KO

I had Thompson originally and regretted the change almost as soon as the fight started. Clements looked rusty and was unable to find any success with his striking, leading to the eventual knockout. I wouldn’t be surprised if Chris gets his walking papers after that fight, while Thompson will get a sterner test next time out. Thompson vs Jason High be an interesting fight.

BW- Wilson Reis def. Ivan Menjivar- Dec

I missed large portions of this fight, but it appears that it came down to Reis scoring takedowns and maintaining top control. While he didn’t mount much offense, Menjivar didn’t do much either. Ivan will drop his top 10 status, but most likely not his job. Reis gets a big win and is a fresh face to the division. I already said I would like to see Reis vs Gagnon and Menjivar vs Brian Bowles or Yuri Alcantara would be good fights and get a veteran fighter back on track no matter who wins.

LW- Myles Jury def. Mike Ricci- Split Dec.

I missed almost all of this fight, but from what I have heard I didn’t miss much. Ricci appears to have trouble with strong grapplers and Jury’s momentum from big wins to start his UFC career takes a minor hit despite the win. Ricci vs Ryan Couture would be a decent bout with the loser heading out of town and Jury vs Bobby Green would be a decent scrap.

LW- Khabib Nurmagomedov def. Pat Healy- Dec.

What a big win and a big name to add to his resume for the Russian. Nurmagomedov gets to move into the top 10, most likely taking Healy’s place. I would love to see them continue to build Khabib with another solid veteran opponent, as his name is still lacking that luster for a big title fight. Jim Miller, despite his result (lose turned No Contest) versus Healy, would be an excellent next test for Khabib. Make it a co-main event of a Fight Night card and put him in  #1 contenders bout with a win. For Healy he is still a tough test for most fighters in the division. Healy vs Cerrone might work.

MW- Francis Carmont def. Constantinos Philippou- Dec.

Carmont put together a strong performance, considering how hard Philippou has been to take off his feet. His timing was excellent and he stayed busy enough to remain on top for almost the entire fight. Costa looked completely out gunned and should consider returning to Serra-Longo where he was fighting out of during his 5 fight win streak. Carmont might break into the top 10 considering that Costa was ranked #7. I would like to see Carmont get another shot against another top level guy, Carmont vs Luke Rockhold would be a great indication of where Carmont is and if Rockhold is worth the hype. For Costa, Tom Watson is a step down, but a great fight to rebuild a run on.

HW- Brendan Schaub def. Matt Mitrione- Sub

Schaub put some of the grappling competition fiasco behind him and built himself up off of a safe performance against Lavar Johnson. He set up the takedown with a quick rush on the feet and finished the fight beautifully. For Mitrione, he hasn’t looked good of late, with the quick KO vs De Fries aside. He needs to rebuild himself with some lower level victories. Schaub climbs the thin ranks at HW and a fight with Todd “where have you gone” Duffee would be an excellent opportunity to show where he is at, pitting two athletic HWs against each other. Mitrione needs someone lower level, Shane Del Rosario would fit the bill- winner saves his job.

BW Championship- Renan Barao def. Eddie Wineland- TKO

The Champ looked pretty normal in round one, but erased that thought with one heck of a turning side kick to the neck/face of Eddie for the finish. Barao is the champ, there is no denying that. I am a Cruz fan, but he would be better served to relinquish the belt and get a tune up fight before fighting the Brazilian with the title on the line. Barao is a multi-faceted fighter and no one has found any consistent success against him. His next fight should be against Dominick Cruz to unify the title or against the winner of Faber/ McDonald as the newly crowned champion. For Wineland, he is solid fighter and will make an excellent living in the Top 10 for foreseeable future. Wineland vs Mike Easton would be an excellent fight.

LHW Championship- Jon Jones def. Alexander Gustafsson- Dec.

Rematch. That was a great fight and I want to see it again. Jones was pushed to the limit and took his title home with him. Some cried foul, but I felt that it was rounds 3, 4, and 5 that the Champ took fro the challenger. Gustafsson looked sharp and the experience of going a full 5 at that level will on make him better. Jones was quite critical of his performance post fight, but let’s not take anything away from ‘the Mauler’. I think this is great for the LHW division that was looking a little bit thin up until now. A rematch between Jones and Gustafsson in early 2014, and if Jones wins he fights Glover, followed potentially by Daniel Cormier ( I would like to see Cormier vs Davis in the mean time) later that year. If the Swede pulls the upset (a far less significant one based on the odds that will be set for the rematch) then its 1-1 and Jones/ Gustafsson III is a must have. No real need to explain anything further, a great fight, the right decision, but let’s do it again.

Final Thoughts…. 

It was a decent night of fights, headlined by one of the best fights of the year. I finished with a 9-4 prediction record, with some notable upsets in Michel Prazeres, Mitch Gagnon, and Brendan Schaub, along with a decent win in Alex Caceres in a fight that people were divided on. Costa Philippou and Ivan Menjivar were my biggest losers on the night and prevented a respectable betting card from turning into a fantastic card. The bet packs had their highs and lows and you can review them below. Finally, the Kamikaze Overdrive Prediction Tournament Championship round is set in a battle of Canada vs USA, so make sure you follow along with those two top cappers picks over the next 4 shows. Lots of fights coming up, but a short UFC break before UFC Fight Night 29 goes down in Brazil, I’ll see you all then.


 

UFC 165

Parlay Breakdowns

In an effort to accommodate different styles of MMA Bettors I have compiled 7 different possible betting cards to help you maximize your profit depending on what style of gambler you are and how much money you want to allocate to each card.

Big Money Bettors- for players with a higher bankroll willing to put a lot of cash on the line to turn a profit and build a growing account, focusing mainly on single bets and well placed parlays.

Recreational Bettors- for players that will allocate a decent sized bankroll per event, but would rather spread out their bets and try and turn smaller investments into big returns with larger parlays.

For Fun Bettors- for players that are putting a little bit of cash on the line just to have a good time and have no problem playing a high risk parlay hoping to cash that big payday.

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

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Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Michel Prazeres $2.41
===================================================
Price: $2.41 x Bet: $100
Payout: $241
 
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Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Mitch Gagnon $2.50
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Price: $2.50 x Bet: $75
Payout: $187.50
 
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Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1: Pat Healy $3.16
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Price: $3.16 x Bet: $75
Payout:
$237
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Parlay #4
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2: Chris Clements $3.37
===================================================
Price: $6.74 x Bet: $50
Payout: $337
 
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Parlay #5
===================================================
Selection 1: Ivan Menjivar $1.56
Selection 2:
===================================================
Price: $2.43 x Bet: $100
Payout: $243
 
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Parlay #6
===================================================
Selection 1: Michel Prazeres $2.41
Selection 2: Alex Caceres $1.71
Selection 3:
===================================================
Price: $6.43 x Bet: $100
Payout: $643

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200

==================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2: Ivan Menjivar $1.56
Selection 3:
===================================================
Price: $3.63 x Bet: $75
Payout: $272.25
 
Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Michel Prazeres $2.41
Selection 2: Mitch Gagnon $2.50
===================================================
Price: $6.02 x Bet: $50
Payout: $301
 
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1: Alex Caceres $1.71
Selection 2:
Selection 3:
Selection 4: Ivan Menjivar $1.56
===================================================
Price: $8.32 x Bet: $50
Payout: $416
 
Parlay #4
===================================================
Selection 1: Michel Prazeres $2.41
Selection 2: Pat Healy $3.16
Selection 3: Chris Clements $3.37
Selection 4: Mitch Gagnon $2.50
===================================================
Price: $64.16 x Bet: $25
Payout:
 
 

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: Ivan Menjivar $1.56
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Michel Prazeres $2.41
Selection 4:
===================================================
Price: $8.74 x Bet: $25
Payout: $218.50
 

==================================================

Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: Mitch Gagnon $2.50
Selection 2: Alex Caceres $1.71
Selection 3: Pat Healy $3.16
===================================================
Price: $13.51 x Bet: $10
Payout: $135.10
 
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2: Michel Prazeres $2.41
Selection 3: Chris Clements $3.37
Selection 4:
===================================================
Price: $25.34 x Bet: $15
Payout: $380.10
 
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Nador Guelmino $3.15 vs

I was hoping that these lines were a little closer and while I have feasted on underdogs early on the card, I just don’t see backing Guelmino here. This is a heavyweight bout, which means all they need is one big punch to end a fight, but for me Omielanczuk should win this fight. At the same time, he is an awfully heavy favourite with a lot of uncertainty so I am going to use my early card upset theory to potentially keep me out of a bad spot here. I am going to pass on this fight. I think that Danny-O wins but he pays too little to consider risking anything on him. Just sit back and enjoy 2 new Heavies trying to grab their first UFC W. My bet is that the winner gets fed to a better known vet in need of a win.

Alex Caceres $1.71 vs

These odds are changing and not in a good way. I was hoping that Caceres’s struggles with grapplers would be enough to keep this fight around even or at the very least in the $1.75 range, but he is slipping on some sites as low as the mid $1.50s. I like Rollie, he is a serviceable striker with hardnosed grappling skills. He has decent takedown skills and knows how to finish, but his fight with Figueroa really raised some doubt. Rollie struggled to fend off the feisty counter attacks of his opponent and was fading, despite having a sizeable grappling advantage. Caceres does have questionable takedown defense, and while he is working to tighten it up, holes still exist. That being said, once the fight hits the ground he is a handful to deal with. He showed in Hettes fight that he can hang on the mat with top level grapplers and he showed his ability to counter out of and capitalize on bad positions in the Kang fight. Caceres is active and long limbs are constantly grabbing and pulling at potential sweeps or subs, which can and will tire his opponents out. Delorme tired in his last fight and I think that Caceres has good enough skills to capitalize on and put him in some bad spots. Remember Rollie almost got caught in a pretty close triangle/ armbar attempt in his last fight. I think the Bruce Leeroy is a solid addition to the parlays, nothing more and if he does slip below the $1.4o range then junk him. This fight also has Fight of the Night potential if that is a bet you are interested in making. Additionally, the betting public is on Delorme at 63% and at 64% or less they are 10-34 when picking underdogs.

Michel Prazeres $2.41 vs

Completely changing gears, I was quite shocked when these odds came out. I felt that Prazeres handled himself admirably on short notice, at a higher weightclass, and against a veteran fighter in Paulo Thiago. With all of this in mind, he shouldn’t be the underdog here, or at least not this significant of one. I always press the idea of the first 2 fights on a card being ripe for an underdog to cash hard, well this fight fits the bills. We have a 1 fight UFC veteran moving back to his natural weightclass after a debut loss against a short notice replacement making his debut with some but limit next level experience. Ronson is a decent striker and has had some success shutting down grapplers, but this is another level of opponent he will be faced with. Additionally, Prazeres isn’t the traditional grappler, although his record might say otherwise, he is capable of fighting on the feet. He has powerful leg kicks and throws hard with his punches. Even if he doesn’t get this fight to the ground I think he can win through a combination of heavy leg kicks, well timed punches, and a lot of clinch fighting. Conversely, Ronson can’t win this fight if he spends a lot of time on the mat, it just won’t happen. I have been going back and forth on who should be my #1 value play with Prazeres, Healy, and Gagnon all offering potential. I write my breakdowns in reverse, starting at the main event and working my way backwards and at this point I think that when the list goes together Prazeres will be sitting atop it. I suggest a decent sized single bet here and I wouldn’t be against using him as a double up option with some of the other favourites on the card (Costa, Makdessi, Menjivar)

Rennee Forte $2.65 vs

Forte surprised a lot of people, including myself when he moved to 155 and then proceeded to give Terry Etim his walking papers. I had Etim winning that fight hands down before it started and so did the odds makers, but someone forgot to tell the Brazilian that. Heading into this contest I think Makdessi has the perfect counters for what made Forte so effective versus the Brit. Forte pushed forward very aggressively and landed some big shots on Etim, but I expected that Makdessi is going to meet every forward motion with a stiff counter jab, similar to what he did against Sammy Stout. I also think that Makdessi’s variety of kicking weapons and varied stances is going to give Forte a difficult front to try and attack. If Forte can get this fight to the ground then he has the advantage and I think that is what is keeping this line slightly higher then what I expected. Makdessi doesn’t jump out as a great single bet, but for me he offers a lot as part of a 2 or 3 fighter parlay. I would even go as far as to include him in a 4 fighter parlay, with the focus on secure but half decent paying underdogs.

Mitch Gagnon $2.50 vs

As of writing this I haven’t released my prediction for this fight yet, so if you bought early you are getting the slight inside scoop. I am on Gagnon. I wasn’t that impressed with Kimura in his debut. I felt he benefited from an opponent who was continually giving him opportunities to capitalize on once the fight hit the mat. I loved what Rogan said, basically he said that what Camus was doing against Kimura only works against guys that suck. Take it for what it is worth, but it took Dustin until the 3rd round to capitalize on the mistake and had he not I think he losses the decision. Gagnon is a strong grappler, much better then Camus, and he isn’t the type of guy you want spending too much time on top because he will do damage. His gas tank is an issue, as he slowed in the Caraway fight, but that could have been the debut jitters too. Another factor is the weight cut for Kimura. He came up short by 4.5 pounds in his last fight, which was his first attempt to make 135. It was short notice, but that doesn’t give a lot of confidence and if he drains himself trying to get to the limit this time he will be in trouble. I like a mid-sized bet here on Mitch. He pays well, slightly better then I expected and his value could go up as the fight approaches. Pay attention and capitalize.

Chris Clements $3.37 vs

I was originally on Thompson with my first prediction, but after reviewing some footage and going over my breakdown I changed my opinion. I haven’t been impressed with ‘Wonderboy’ so far despite a 2-1 UFC record. I took both Brown and Burrell to beat him, going 1-1 in those fights. Despite his win last time out, he didn’t look good and gassed hard. If he is unable to close the distance and clinch with Clements I can see him gassing badly midway through the 2nd round and potentially getting knocked into next week. Clements is far from a well round, defensively sound fighter, but he has look okay in both of his fights despite facing capable grapplers. I expect to see him more aggressive and settled in, despite the year long layoff, and throwing big bombs and caution to the wind. My play here is a mid-range to smaller sized single bet. Clements has serious value as I just don’t think Thompson has been impressive enough to be this big a favourite over another fighter at this level.

Ivan Menjivar $1.56 vs

I think that these odds are going to move, so you should too. Menjivar is a solid vet against a guy with some capabilities, but who is relatively limited. Reis hasn’t impressed me with his BJJ and certainly not his striking to consider him a real threat to Menjivar. Ivan is never going to challenge for the title, but he is an excellent gatekeeper and Reis doesn’t have the key, so to speak. Menjivar is vastly superior on the feet and good enough (if not better) on the ground to stay out of trouble. Ivan is a solid contributor to your parlay bets and would make a decent double up parlays with Costa Philippou. Neither guy pays strong enough to consider a single bet, but together they are in the $2.40 range which is an enticing opportunity. Hit it hard!

Myles Jury $1.25 vs

Nope! Too little value and although I like what Jury brings and he should win this, his body of work (and Ricci’s for that matter) is too limited to even consider a bet here. Moving on.

Pat Healy $3.16 vs

Khabib’s style has some huge fundamental flaws. His striking is awkward and the way he jumps into his punches and then backs straight up with his chin raised screams counter strike knockout! But he has yet to face anyone that has been able to expose this. I don’t think Healy is the one that knocks him out, but I do think Healy’s wrestling and size pose some major threats to the Russia’s undefeated streak. The manner in which Healy rallied and put away a supper tough top 10 veteran in Jim Miller really put a stamp on how effective he is. His top game is overwhelming and he knows how to use it so well. Khabib had issues with the size of Tibau and did get put in a couple of bad spots with Trujillo’s wrestling. Healy will need to survive early, but I can see him grinding out the final 2 rounds on top to take a decision or even late stoppage win. I like a decent sized bet on Healy, nothing on this card is really standing out as a sure fire upset bet, but I think as Healy grows in value (which he is) he makes the most sense.

Francis Carmont $2.60 vs

I have had a lot off success predicting both of these fighters and I would like to say I have a good read on them. When the fight was announced I was on Costa right from the start. Carmont started his UFC run like a bat out of hell breaking down a tough Camozzi and then back to back submission wins. Since then he has struggled his way to two more wins, but looked anything but stellar in the process. His striking is good and his grappling is sound, but his game planning is a major question mark. If I was his coach I would have him use movement and kicks to break Costa down and stay out of his range. With Costa’s TDD being so strong, it works against Carmont to try and drag him to the mat as he would be forced to continually close the distance and move directly into boxing range which is what the former Serra-Longo product wants. I expect Carmont to try and clinch up and get either countered on the way in or punished on the way out. I think Costa is a solid bet here to circle away and land with power, getting the better of most of the striking exchanges. I would like to play him as a single bet, but his value is a little low for my liking. Instead I think he is an excellent combo option for someone like Schaub or Healy or a main card parlay. There is also a prop bet here, but I’ll get into that later on. Additionally, the public is very close on this fight which usually favours the favourite, Costa.

Matt Mitrione $1.77 vs

I was reading a thread on a popular MMA forum where the members were weighing the possibility of Schaub attempting to lay on top of Matty for the entire fight, much like he did to Big Johnson. I think that possibility is likely. His chin is a major problem and I don’t think he or his infamous game planning coach Greg Jackson will consider risking him getting clipped when his opponent is known for his questionable grappling defense. If he can’t get the fight to the ground then he will have to stand and trade with Mitrione and then there will be some problems, but lets wait and see. Mitrione has had 2 fights in the last 2 years and less then a combined 3 minutes inside the cage, which isn’t exactly a great way to measure a fighter’s progress. Schaub’s chin is a risk factor, but he has decent value and think he gets the job done here. I actually thought he would be the favourite so I think we are getting a little value here, making him the proper bet. A mid-sized single bet is the most logical play here and most likely a shot at a parlay or 2 would make some sense as well.

Renan Barao $1.18 vs

Title fight 1 of 2, and this one is about as unappealing as they come as far as betting is concerned. Spoiler alert! I plan to have all of my betting in the books by the end of the Schaub/Mitrione fight. Neither of the title bouts offer much from a betting stand point. If I was to pick an option out of the 4 fighters I would consider a small play on Eddie Wineland. Most this is because I like Eddie and would love to see him with the title and at $5.25 that would make it even sweater. Removing the humanistic elements from this breakdown-he is going to struggle,short of landing a big shot early, to win this bout. So my professional opinion is to leave this fight alone and just enjoy a decent scrap. Come on Eddie, prove me wrong.

Jon Jones $1.16 vs

This is an easy betting breakdown. I am 8-0 on Jones and 5-1 on Gustafsson (I wanted to see him prove himself against a then slightly relevant Matt Hamill), but at these odds this is a fight easily left off of the betting board. Do I think the champ retains? Yup. Do I think he is worth the risk at $1.16? Nope. A-Gust is probably the most valid challenger he has had a in a while and could give him some trouble. Not enough to make me consider betting on him, but I still think this is a stone better left unturned. A prop bet might be worth consideration, but I still have some thinking left to do there.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Renan Barao $1.18

2. Jon Jones $1.16

3.

4. Ivan Menjivar $1.56

5. Myles Jury $1.25

====================

6.

7.

8. Alex Caceres $1.71

9. Michel Prazeres $2.41

10. Mitch Gagnon $2.50

11. Pat Healy $3.16

12.

13. Chris Clements $3.37


Kamikaze Overdrive Fighter Prediction Records

Event Prediction Record: (61-24-0 4NC) 72%

Best Prediction Record: Jon Jones (8-0-0)

Worst Prediction Record: Roland Delorme (1-2-0 1NC)

Best Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights): Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson 13-1-0

Worst Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights): Renee Forte vs. John Makdessi 3-4-0

Main Card

Jon Jones (8-0-0) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (5-1-0)

Renan Barao (3-2-0) vs. Eddie Wineland (4-0-0)

Matt Mitrione (4-2-0) vs. Brendan Schaub (3-2-0)

Francis Carmont (5-0-0) vs. Constantinos Philippou (4-1-0)

Pat Healy (3-1-0 1NC) vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov (3-1-0)

Preliminary Card

Myles Jury (1-1-0) vs. Mike Ricci (1-1-0)

Ivan Menjivar (5-1-0) vs. Wilson Reis (0-0-0)

Chris Clements (1-0-0 1NC) vs. Stephen Thompson (1-1-0)

Mitch Gagnon (1-1-0) vs. Dustin Kimura (0-1-0)

Renee Forte (1-1-0) vs. John Makdessi (2-3-0)

Michel Prazeres (1-0-0) vs. Jesse Ronson (0-0-0)

Alex Caceres (3-2-0 1NC) vs. Roland Delorme (1-2-0 1NC)

Nandor Guelmino (1-0-0) vs. Daniel Omielanczuk (0-0-0)


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Michel Prazeres $2.41 I think these odds are a little over the top and we are getting some serious value with Prazeres. Early Card Upset theory is in full swing here.
2. Mitch Gagnon $2.50 If Gagnon doesn’t gas out he should be able to use his power grappling and heavy ground and pound on route to the victory. Kimura was handed a submission attempt in his last fight and took forever to finally jump on it, Gagnon wont be so generous.
3. Pat Healy $3.16 Bam Bam is a notorious prospect killer. Khabib is a tough fighter to prepare for and presents an unorthodox front to attack, but I feel Healy will survive early and grind his way to a win in rounds 2 and 3.
4. Chris Clements $3.37 Clements wasn’t my initial pick, but I am backing him know, especially as his price continues to rise. This could be an entertaining fight and I expect him to come out guns blazing looking for the KO. Wonderboy has been too underwhelming to consider as an option here.
5. $2.00 His value is fluctuating, but I think he has a good chance to take this and as the underdog he does bring some interest.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. $5.25 Barao should win this, but a bet here would be out of pure interest in a fighter over $5.00. Do not bet it if you don’t have the extra bankroll.
2.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Alex Caceres/

Francis Carmont/

Costa Philippou to Win by Decision– Costa only has one finish in his UFC career and should be looking to try and keep things simple to avoid getting put on his back. Playing him by decision should bump him up over the $2.00 range.

Matt Mitrione/

Renan Barao to Win by Submission $2.35- I expect this might not happen until the second half of the fight when Wineland slows down and Barao moves in for the kill. Wineland’s TDD is good, but it won’t be as strong once his cardio gives out. With Renan paying so poorly to win outright this seems like the most logical play.

Jon Jones to Win by Submission $2.55- Similar to the Barao fight, straight up there is no value on Jones, but playing him to win by submission at this price is worth a look. He has some decent submission wins- Machida, Belfort, Bader, and Rampage and I see him controlling this fight from top position eventually leading to a submission- arm triangle choke.