UFC 164: Henderson vs. Pettis 2: Results and Bet Pack

Josh Harper

Facebook Prelims

185 lbs. – Jared Hamman (2-4 UFC) vs. Magnus Cedenblad (0-1 UFC) – Cedenblad via submission

Both fighters traded punches and kicks for the first minute with nothing significant landing, then Hamman went for a takedown and Cedenblad countered with a guillotine choke for the 1st round finish.

155 lbs. – Ryan Couture 0-1 UFC) vs. Al Iaquinta (0-1 UFC) – Iaquinta via U. decision

Iaquinta landed heavy punches all fight long and cemented each round with a takedown in the final minute. Couture showed lots of heart by taking every punch and threatening with hard knees strikes.

265 lbs. – Soa Palelei (0-1 UFC) vs. Nikita Krylov (0-0 UFC) – Palelei via TKO

Palelei landed nice hard punches early on, but Krylov took them well and put Palelei in some bad spots on the ground. Palelei fought through a rib injury and pure exhaustion to get the 3rd round TKO.

Fox Sports Prelims

135 lbs. – Chico Camus (1-1 UFC) vs. Kyung Ho Kang (0-0(1) UFC) – Camus via U. decision

Ho Kang was in top control for the majority of rounds 1 and 2, but Camus won the striking exchanges in rounds 2 and 3. Camus also landed a beautiful up kick at the end of round 3 almost finishing Ho Kang.

170 lbs. – Pascal Krauss (2-1 UFC) vs. Hyun Gyu Lim (1-0 UFC) – Gyu Lim via TKO

Both men went toe to toe with Lim landing hard punches and Krauss landing nice kicks, but Lim’s power ended up being the difference as he landed a big right hand and got the 1st round TKO finish.

125 lbs. – Louis Gaudinot (1-1 UFC) vs. Tim Elliott (1-1 UFC) – Elliot via U. decision

Gaudinot was able to land some nice knees but couldn’t amount much more offense as Elliot was able to blanket him for 3 rounds with his very strong wrestling and ground and pound.

155 lbs. – Jamie Varner (3-2 UFC) vs. Gleison Tibau (12-7 UFC) – Tibau via S. decision

Tibau won rounds 1 and 2 with a heavy wrestling attack and some ground and pound, but Tibau gassed like always giving Varner the chance to storm back in the 3rd round and make it a close fight.

Main Card

145 lbs. – Erik Koch (2-1 UFC) vs. Dustin Poirier (5-2 UFC) – Poirier via U. decision

Both fighters traded punches, kicks and submissions for 3 rounds, but Poirier clearly had the better striking and had Koch hurt several times almost ending his night early.

265 lbs. – Ben Rothwell                (2-3 UFC) vs. Brandon Vera (8-6(1) UFC) – Rothwell via TKO

Vera did everything he could to avoid Rothwell and his powerful punches, but once Vera started to slow down Rothwell was able to find his range and unloaded on Vera to get the 3rd round TKO finish.

145 lbs. – Chad Mendes (5-1 UFC) vs. Clay Guida (10-7 UFC) – Mendes via TKO

Mendes controlled the striking with his quick footwork and boxing while also landing multiple takedowns and stuffing the majority of Guida’s. Mendes finished Guida in round 3 with hard punches.

265 lbs. – Frank Mir (14-7 UFC) vs. Josh Barnett (4-1 UFC) – Barnett via TKO

Barnett bullied Mir up against the cage landing hard punches and knees until he was able to move Mir’s head into range for a knee strike that would drop Mir giving Barnett the 1st round TKO.

155 lbs. – Benson Henderson (7-0 UFC) vs. Anthony Pettis (3-1 UFC) – Pettis via submission

Pettis was able to find his range early on with his quick kicks that Henderson could only answer with a takedown, but Pettis had an answer to Henderson’s wrestling with a very nice armbar to win the belt.


UFC 164

Parlay Breakdowns

In an effort to accommodate different styles of MMA Bettors I have compiled 7 different possible betting cards to help you maximize your profit depending on what style of gambler you are and how much money you want to allocate to each card.

Big Money Bettors- for players with a higher bankroll willing to put a lot of cash on the line to turn a profit and build a growing account, focusing mainly on single bets and well placed parlays.

Recreational Bettors- for players that will allocate a decent sized bankroll per event, but would rather spread out their bets and try and turn smaller investments into big returns with larger parlays.

For Fun Bettors- for players that are putting a little bit of cash on the line just to have a good time and have no problem playing a high risk parlay hoping to cash that big payday.

Big Money Bettor, Budget: $500

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1:
===================================================
Price: $2.82 x Bet: $120
Payout: $338.40
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Hyun Gyu Lim $2.60
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Price: $2.60 x Bet: $80
Payout: $208
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Anthony Pettis $2.05
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Price: $2.05 x Bet: $100
Payout: $205
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Erik Koch $1.69
Selection 2:
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Price: $4.77 x Bet: $50
Payout: $238.50
 
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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Anthony Pettis $2.05
Selection 2: Hyun Gyu Lim $2.60
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Price: $5.33 x Bet: 50
Payout: $266.50
 
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Parlay #6
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Tim Elliott $1.69
Selection 3: Josh Barnett $1.58
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Price: $4.81 x Bet: $100
Payout: $481

Recreational Bettor, Budget: $200

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Erik Koch $1.69
Selection 2: Tim Elliott $1.69
Selection 3:
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Price: $8.05 x Bet: $75
Payout: $603.75
 
Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Anthony Pettis $2.05
Selection 2: Josh Barnett $1.58
Selection 3:
Selection 4:
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Price: $10.73 x Bet: $35
Payout: $375.55
 
Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Hyun Gyu Lim $2.60
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Erik Koch $1.69
Selection 4: Josh Barnett $1.58
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Price: $19.58 x Bet: $40
Payout: $783.20
 
Parlay #4
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Selection 1: K
Selection 2: Al Iaquinta $1.43
Selection 3:
Selection 4: Tim Elliott $1.69
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Price: $6.92 x Bet: $50
Payout: $346
 

For Fun Bettor, Budget: $50

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1:
Selection 2: Anthony Pettis $2.05
Selection 3: Erik Koch $1.69
Selection 4:
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Price: $17.59 x Bet: $20
Payout: $351.80
 

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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Hyun Gyu Lim $2.60
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Tim Elliott $1.69
Selection 4: Josh Barnett $1.58
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Price: $12.77 x Bet: $15
Payout: $191.55
 
Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Anthony Pettis $2.05
Selection 2: Tim Elliott $1.69
Selection 3: Josh Barnett $1.58
Selection 4: Erik Koch $1.69
Selection 5:
===================================================
Price: $16.65 x Bet: $15
Payout: $249.75
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

***With 3 events in only 10 days the breakdowns for each fight will be shorter and much more to the point, but I put the same thought into them as I do the longer breakdowns.

Magnus Cedenblad $1.92 vs

I was looking at this fight and not sure where to go with it. Do you play the unproven, fighter coming off a huge layoff or the potentially shot out veteran, with big league experience, also coming off a lengthy layoff. I am giving Hamman one more chance as this is probably it for him in the UFC. If he has healed his injuries and got it together over the last year I could see him overwhelming his opponent who is known for cracking under pressure. Hamman is a warrior and can take a lot of punishment and I don’t think Cedenblad can dish out enough to stop him. I think that Hamman could be used in 2 different ways. You could attempt a small single bet here or create a parlay and then bet it again with Hamman on the end. He does have some pop to his payout and he is only 31 so the year away could have healed him enough to win this fight with his reckless style.

Ryan Couture $2.85 vs

I talked about the long layoff and development possibilities for Iaquinata and how he reminds me of Vick and Jury who both pulled off upsets in their long awaited returns. The key word there is upsets and that is what this wouldn’t be based on the line. As much as I feel Big Al takes this over Little Randy, the return isn’t overly stimulating. I would consider using him in a lager parlay if that is route you would like to explore, but with the potential of all of the other fights on this card and the unknown elements here I think I will be leaning towards a pass here.

  Nikita Krylov $1.46 vs

This is my number 1 play on the card. The line is totally off here and is the product of Krylov destroying a series of unknown and low level guys over the last 12 months. He has won all of his fights quickly inside the first round and that appears impressive, but having watched a number of his fights I don’t see any reason for him to be this big of a fav or a fav at all. I just don’t see him submitting Palelei, a BJJ black belt and his striking is so sloppy that Palelei should be able to capitalize on him. Krylov is young, inexperienced, and is making his debut against a veteran who has already been in the UFC and other bigger shows. If Krylov can’t end this fight early he will have some major mental hurdles to overcome which can be difficult for a guy who is used to putting opponents away with ease. I suggest your biggest play of the night on Palelei. I also think he would make a great parlay with Lim and if you could triple them up with Pettis. I think this is a major mistake on the part of the books, I have been wrong before, but I feel good here.

Chico Camus $2.40 vs K

The line is up and down on Kang. He is as low as a $1.45 and this is the highest I have see him. I think he can be used in a parlay, but I am still a little leery at this number with the weight cut. If he gasses Camus could rally back and finish him late as I expect Kang to be up early on with his grappling. A submission win inside the first 10 minutes would be perfect for the Korea and for the betting card. I was hoping that the line might be a little bit closer, but the books must have picked up all of the grappling ailments that Camus showed in his last fight and feel the same way that I do about Kang’s ability to capitalize. Again I think Kang can be a decent contributor to your parlays, but nothing too extensive.

Pascal Krauss $1.50 vs

This is one the fights that the line baffles me. I just don’t see how Krauss has done enough to be this big a favourite over Lim. Lim impressed me in his debut with his timing and striking capabilities. Rewatching the final sequence of the fight you can see Lim looking for and setting up the big knee as his opponent routinely ducked his head down. Krauss is 2-1 in the UFC with 2 wins over low level competition and in neither fight did he really blow the doors off of them. He pulled away from Stumpf, but that fight was closer then most expected. I think he is going to have trouble finding his range against the longer Lim and this will allow Lim plenty of opportunities to land his strikes. This right now is looking like one of my biggest single bets on the card. I like Lim to win this fight and I think you should put a sizeable bet down on him. He is going to give Krauss problems everywhere and as long as he doesn’t gas this is his fight to win. I also like this fight enough to use him in a few parlays as he adds a tonne of value.

Tim Elliott $1.69 vs

Gaudinot surprised me in his Flyweight debut against Lineker, but there were signs of the outcome I expected. He was able to survived the barrages of strikes, but had he not been able to score those takedowns and eventually get the sub I think he would have gotten stopped late or lost the decision. Elliott is a dark horse, he took out a much bigger and hard hitting Papazian which was impressive and it was a war to say the least. I think with his height/reach he should be able to keep Gaudinot out of range and force him to push forward. This should give Elliott ample opportunities to score takedowns and control the fight from top position. Papazian isn’t a great ground fighter, but the way Elliot was able to pass his guard was quite impressive. I like Elliott as a contributor to your parlays. If he managed to climb up beyond the $1.80 mark then you could consider a single bet, but I think he is best served as a major contributor to your parlays. As I mentioned above, there are plenty of favourites and slight dogs that can create some decent paying parlays without having to risk much. Gleison Tibau $1.95 vs

I wouldn’t be shocked if this line moves so much that Varner is the dog by bell time, it has already jumped a bit and it still has the new line smell. This fight is going to be touch and go. I expect that Tibau could very well win the first round. I expect that we will here a split decision at the end of the fight. I expect there will be some controversy as to who wins this fight even after it is announced. Tibau seems to be strong against lower level guys. But against guys with a little more talent, who aren’t going to be bullied around by a bigger fighter, the trade off of the weight cut versus the cardio issues doesn’t favour Gleison. In the Dunham fight, he got off to ta great start but Dunham overtook him by simply being able to go harder later in the fight. Varner isn’t known for elite level cardio, but I think he has enough to make it interesting early and definitive late. His boxing should be the difference and his wrestling, combined with the Tibau slow down should prevent him from getting planted on the mat in the second half of the fight. I like Varner as a single bet. I would like him more if he drifted over that $2.00 mark, so take the wait and see approach. Leave this fight close to the end. The other option is using him along side Pettis or Palelei as a duo or obviously taking a bigger risk and opening up the parlay card. You can get a good return on a parlay with limit cash on the line without betting on any sizeable underdogs here. A combination of Varner, Barnett, Pettis, Koch, Elliott, and even Hamman or Vera if you really want to go crazy would work.

Erik Koch $1.69 vs

This is a fight I had to do some extra thinking in, because frankly I haven’t been that impressed with Koch. He was so defensive against Brookins and in the opening round against Lamas, that he did almost nothing offensively. His corner was telling him to let his hands go and stop waiting on his opponent to attack. Poirier is an aggressive guy, but I don’t think he has the takedown game to be effective vs Koch. Lamas is a better wrestler then Dustin and he had to wait for a slip to really gain some top control prior to the finish. I think that Koch will be able to use his size and push Poirier off him and then capitalize on Dustin’s biggest stumbling point which is his striking defense. Poirier gets hit a lot and he has a tendency to cover up and just ride out the barrage. The only problem is 1 and 2 punches turn into 3, 4, and 5 when you take this approach and even if it doesn’t end with a knockout, the judges see it and score it as a significant point in the round. I think that Koch should do enough both offensively and defensively to convince the judges that he won and maybe even land that big shot that takes Poirier out. My play here would be as part of a parlay bet, again there are a couple of really good single bets for this card, but Koch works for me as a contributing part of a parlay.

Ben Rothwell $2.13 vs

Vera pays okay at $1.80, but honestly he has been so inconsistent it is crazy to consider him a top priority bet. Just quickly looking over the current lines I would rank 7 other options ahead of Vera, even ones that pay less then him. You don’t know who you are going to get in the cage and lot of that can be said for Rothwell as well. The TRT clearance for Big Ben is an eyebrow raiser. Is he healthy? Is he going to be the best BBR we have since signing with the UFC? He hasn’t looked that great, even in victory inside the Octagon. He has the size that could take Vera out of the game, if he can keep up the pace for 3 rounds or at least long enough to stop Mr. 2 Division Champion, uncrowned. Remember, Vera went to LHW and got his face smashed by Johnny Bones and now is now going back up and putting that face in the line of the biggest hitters the promotion has to offer. Even if he doesn’t get KOed, all Ben might have to do is land a glancing blow and it may take Vera entirely off his game for the rest of the fight. All of that considered, I still would like to have a small amount of cash invested here, so maybe a small sized single bet on Vera or hooking him up as an add-on to a parlay you have already played once is the best way to go here. Clay Guida $4.45 vs

This is a fight I think that Mendes takes with relative ease on account that he is better at the things that Guida does well, plus he has other tools in his tool box to rely on that the Carpenter does not (that analogy worked well). The value is a total turn off though. There are a lot of strong betting options on this card, even for your parlays and Mendes doesn’t offer a whole lot. Guida is far from a nobody and has a tonne of experience which you would be betting against for very minimal gain. I think that a prop bet on Mendes is the way to go, I’ll post that later on though. Josh Barnett $1.58 vs

I really didn’t think Barnett would be as heavy a favourite here, but the line still makes sense. I think that Mir is going to have trouble working his bottom game against a guy who is so good on top and this takes away arguably his best weapon. On the feet it is all about Frankie’s chin. It just isn’t there anymore and I think that Barnett could clip him and either finish him there or take it to the ground and close it out shortly there after. If Barnett can land some ground and pound it will greatly diminish Mir’s ability to defend and make it only a matter of time before the finish arrives. My play here is Barnett as part of my parlays only. There are a number of better betting options for single plays the Barnett, so you should focus your funds there instead. There is also a prop bet I like for this fight as well, so check the Prop section later on. Benson Henderson $1.74 vs

I love this play and have been waiting for the fight hoping Pettis would be the dog and he is. For me Henderson seems like he has plateaued. He amped it up after dropping the WEC strap, got to the UFC title fight, won it and then (other then the Diaz beating) has been just barely sneaking by with the same old tired act. Pettis on the other hand appears to be diversifying and getting better. Melendez and Edgar were close and arguably could have been given the nod against Henderson, but they just didn’t do that little extra to convince the judges that they won the fight. Pettis will. He is going to throw a wide variety of both flashy, but effective kicks, and strikes that will have Henderson scrambling to keep up. I expect that by the 4th round, maybe even early, Benson will be shooting for a lot of TDs to try and score points and limit what Pettis can do. My play here is a big single bet on the challenger. He has valued at whatever price, even if he slips to the fav position (which he won’t) he still a good play. There are also plenty of parlay options available here as well with some value- Koch, Lim, Varner, and Palelei all offer solid combo plays.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1.

2. Josh Barnett $1.58

3.

4. Anthony Pettis $2.05

5. Erik Koch $1.69

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6. K

7. Tim Elliott $1.69

8. Hyun Gyu Lim $2.60

9. Al Iaquinta $1.43

10.

11.

12.


Kamikaze Overdrive Fighter Prediction Records

Event Prediction Record: 48-30-0 2NC 62%

Best Prediction Record(s): Chad Mendes (6-0-0) & Frank Mir (5-0-0)

Worst Prediction Record: Ben Rothwell (0-3-0) & Jared Hamman (0-3-0)

Best Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights): Clay Guida vs. Chad Mendes 11-1-0 92%

Worst Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights): Benson Henderson vs. Anthony Pettis 6-7-0 46%

Main Card

Benson Henderson (4-4-0) vs. Anthony Pettis (2-3-0)

Josh Barnett (3-1-0) vs. Frank Mir (5-0-0)

Clay Guida (5-1-0) vs. Chad Mendes (6-0-0)

Ben Rothwell (0-3-0) vs. Brandon Vera (2-0-0 1NC)

Erik Koch (3-0-0) vs. Dustin Poirier (5-2-0)

Preliminary Card

Gleison Tibau (4-4-0) vs. Jamie Varner (2-1-0)

Tim Elliott (2-0-0) vs. Louis Gaudinot (1-1-0)

Pascal Krauss (0-2-0) vs. Hyun Gyu Lim (1-0-0)

Chico Camus (0-2-0) vs. Kyung Ho Kang (0-0-0 1NC)

Nikita Krylov (0-0-0) vs. Soa Palelei (0-0-0)

Ryan Couture (2-2-0) vs. Al Iaquinta (0-1-0)

Magnus Cedenblad (1-0-0) vs. Jared Hamman (0-3-0)


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. $2.82 Again I think this line is way off and while I have been wrong before I have seen a lot of Krylov’s recent fights and even though he wins I just don’t see him being UFC caliber yet.
2. $2.60 Lim looked good in his debut and while the weight cut is a concern and I think his length and striking capabilities give Krauss trouble all fight. He too is a dog that should be much closer.
3. $2.05 I like the WEC champ to ‘regain’ his title from the man he took it from in their last meeting. This line is likely to drop don’t be shocked.
4. Erik Koch $1.69 This is a close fight but I think Koch does enough with his defense and then score bigger with his offense. If the line climbs even better.
5. Jamie Varner $1.80 Again this fight will be back and forth, and I counting on Varner stealing it in the second half as Tibau slows. Hopefully we can get to even before bell time.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Ben Rothwell $2.13 Rothwell is one that temps me a little, especially if his price gets up over the $2.25 mark. The TRT exemption could be an interesting swing and lets face it, Brandon Vera has been far from a destroyer of late.
2. Chico Camus $2.40 I was actually banking on these odds being a bit closer together. If Kang gasses he could get finished late, a small bet on Camus might be a play if you don’t want to include Kang in you parlays.
3.
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10. The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line. There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

Magnus Cedenblad/

Nikita Krylov/

Jamie Varner/ Gleison Tibau Total Rounds Over 2.5- Tibau early, Varner late and this fight should be going to the judges. There is the possibility of Varner getting tapped or Tibau getting knocked out, but there are slight. Play the Over.

Chad Mendes to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $4.00- Guida has never been finished before, but Mendes has been showing much improved striking and he hits hard. I could see him catching Guida early as he tries to close the distance and putting him down for the finish. Solid value here as well at $4.00.

Josh Barnett/

Ben Henderson/ Anthony Pettis Total Rounds Over 3.5- This number could be as high as 4.5, but I still think this bout has a create chance of going the distance. Henderson hasn’t been finishing anyone and unless Pettis lands a big shot I think this one goes to the cards. Play the Over 3.5 or 4.5.