UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 Prelim Predictions

Prelim Predictions

PRELIMINARY FIGHTS START IN:

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155lbs- Gleison Tibau (36-9-0) vs. Jamie Varner (21-7-1 2NC)

What have they done recently?

Tibau- wins in 5 of his last 7

Varner- wins in 4 of his last 5 fights

Key Victories

Tibau- Rafael dos Anjos- Split Dec, Jeremy Stephens- Dec, Francisco Trinaldo- Dec, Josh Neer- Dec

Varner- Melvin Guillard- Split Dec, Edson Barboza- TKO, Donald Cerrone- Dec, Rob McCullough- TKO

Key Defeats

Tibau- Evan Dunham- Split Dec, Khabib Nurmagomedov- Dec, Jim Miller- Dec, Melvin Guillard- Split Dec

Varner- Joe Lauzon- Sub, Donald Cerrone- Dec, Benson Henderson- Sub, Dakota Cochrane- Dec

Physical Comparison

Tibau- 2″ height advantage

Varner- 0.5″ reach advantage

Strengths

Tibau- size, strength, BJJ Black belt, submissions (12 wins), takedowns (4.66 @ 57%), TDD (93%), improving striking, experiencem striking defense (65%), experience (36 fights), UFC experience (19 fights)

Varner- knockout power (9 KOs), chin (0 KO losses), wrestling background, takedowns (4.04 @ 55%), TDD 66%, submissions (9 subs), experience (31 fights), UFC/WEC experience (13 fights)

Weaknesses

Tibau- potentially bad weight cut, cardio, lack of speed, SLpM (1.87) vs SApM (2.14), 0-2 in last 2 USA appearences

Varner- submission defense (4 losses), point scoring ability (3-3 in decisions), 8 month layoff

Key(s) to Victory

Tibau- Gleison needs to fight at a controlled pace and not allow Varner to push wear him down early. If he can land some takedowns and put the wrestler on his back he will either take a decision or submit him.

Varner-Varner has to make this a grueling fight and out box Tibau, landing that big right hand with regularity. Stuffing the TDAs and forcing Tibau to trade with him on the feet will be significant and if he can score some late takedowns against a tired opponent that should seal the victory.

Key(s) to Defeat

Tibau- If the weight cut is too much for him and his cardio doesn’t hold up beyond a round he will be hard-pressed to win.

Varner- He can not afford to spend any consistent time on his back against a talent top player.

Prediction

This fight has the potential to go either way, especially considering these are two savy and experienced veterans with a lot of top flight competition under their belts. Tibau is a BJJ Black belt with a bushel basket full of submission wins. He has excellent wrestling and his top game is tough to defend against. Varner has been submitted 4 times and if Tibau can establish top control early while he is fresh, he could make it five. Adding to the effectiveness of Gleison’s grappling is his world class takedown defense. At 93%, Tibau hasn’t been taken off his feet since a mid-2011 meeting with Kurt Pellegrino and before that you have to go back to the Summer of 2009 for another completed TDA against the Brazilian.

Jamie Varner comes from a wrestling background and also boasts some pretty impressive takedowns numbers himself, both offensively and defensively. Just as impressive as his wrestling is his power boxing game. He carries a huge right hand that has helped him pile up 9 knockouts including his short notice upset victory over highly touted Muay Thai practitioner Edson Barboza. Varner will also attack the body with vicisious body shots to both take away his adversary’s wind and create openings to target their chin. Jamie should have the technical striking edge here along with a slight speed advantage and is output per minute is 1.07 strikes more then Tibau’s which will add up in a 15 minute bout.

The size of Tibau is a huge advantage, if the weight cut goes smoothly. On the flip side of the coin, if the Brazilian struggles he is known for slowing down in grueling 3 rounds bouts. In his last two fights against upper level competition; Evan Dunham and Khabib Nurmagomedov, Gleison slowed down noticeably after the first round and lost both decisions. He has alternated those defeats with wins at home in Brazil, but these fights came against lower level competition, with his most recent win only lasting a round a half. Tibau is 3-3 in his last 6 fights that went the distance, with 2 of those wins coming by split decision. His ability to keep up with Varner’s pace will be a major factor in the outcome of this fight. Varner is known for his grueling bouts, dropping a back and forth affair against Joe Lauzon and then defeating Melvin Guillard in a 3 rounder. Varner’s striking advantage and wrestling background should hold him in the fight early and allow him to take it over starting somewhere in the second round, so my prediction is Jamie Varner to defeat Gleison Tibau by decision.

Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.

125lbs- Tim Elliott (9-3-1) vs. Louis Gaudinot (6-2-0)

What have they done recently?

Elliott- picked up first UFC win in second appearance

Gaudinot- picked up first UFC win in second appearance

Key Victories

Elliott- Jens Pulver- TKO, Jared Papazian- Dec

Gaudinot- John Lineker- Sub

Key Defeats

Elliott- John Dodson- Dec

Gaudinot- Johnny Bedford- TKO

Physical Comparison

Elliott- 4″ height and 4″ reach advantage

Strengths

Elliott- height/ reach advantage, knockout power (3 KOs), unorthodox striking, movement, SLpM (3.83), wrestling, submission (4 subs), takedowns (3.5 @ 39%),single leg TD, transitions, GnP, subs/15 min (2), TDD (60%), clinch fighting, elite level experience (vs Dodson)

Gaudinot- speed, wrestling, SLpM (3.25), knockout power (2 KOs), striking, aggression, submissions (2 subs), takedowns (1.37 @ 50%), top control, GnP

Weaknesses

Elliott- inexperience (13 fights), will slow down, SApM (3.87)

Gaudinot- 15 month layoff, inexperience (8 fights), SApM (8.14), size disadvantage, wild striking, can be overwhelmed

Key(s) to Victory

Elliott- Tim needs to use his reach to keep Gaudinot at distance to limited his striking success and then change levels for TDs. Gaudinot has struggled off his back in previous fights and Elliot should try to reproduce that scenario.

Gaudinot- Louis has to find a way to get inside the reach of Elliott to land his strikes without opening himself up to taken down. If would benefit from pushing the pace early, leading to a slower opponent late. Takedowns could also score some big points for Mr. Goodnight.

Keys(s) to Defeat

Elliott- He has to keep Gaudinot from getting inside and putting up bigger striking numbers then he can match. Elliot can’t not afford to spend too much time on his back either.

Gaudinot- If he can’t get inside the range or stay off his back his offensive output is going to be minimal.

Prediction

Louis Gaudinot has been the only Flyweight in the UFC to upend John Lineker, but the year plus layoff has slowed his momentum in the newly expanding division. The possibility of ring rust is a major concern for Louis, especially when you consider the speed at which these lighter weight fighters compete at. If he can’t get up to speed right from the start, he could be too far behind to catch up by the end. Additionally, Gaudinot doesn’t have a tonne of experience to draw upon, with just 8 pro fights, to help him cope with returning after such a significant time away. Prior to his UFC debut, he had a year long gap between appearances and it resulted in a one sided beat down at hands of Johnny Bedford.

Elliott gained a lot of respect for his abilities when he went the distance with top ranked John Dodson. He showcased an unorthodox striking style to combat the speed of Dodson and that could be something he tries again here against the quick footed Gaudinot. He has good hands and decent power, along with a solid striking output hovering around the 4 strikes per minute mark. Gaudinot is willing to stand and trade, as he showed against Lineker, but he took a tonne of damage in that fight. He is better served when he fights at a more controlled pace, instead of swinging wild wide ranging hooks. As was the case in both the Bedford and Lineker fights, if his opponent is able to open up and start landing he will wilt under the pressure. The reach of Elliott will also play a role in limiting the success of Gaudinot during the exchanges.

Both guys have shown themselves to be capable ground fighters; Louis tapped Linker in his Flyweight debut and Elliott put together an impressive sequence of takedowns and top control in his win over Jared Papazian. Gaudinot took advantage of Lineker’s aggression, changing levels and catching him as he came forward. Conversely, Elliott showed an excellent single leg takedown against the bigger Papazian, using his strikes to set it up before shooting. Gaudinot may struggle here to land takedowns, as he will be the one forced to come forward with the significantly shorter reach. Elliott’s top game is aggressive and he is quite adept at cutting through his opponent’s guard. If he can establish his takedowns it will both score points and significantly slow down Gaudinot’s aggression on the feet. Elliott really likes the guillotine choke, and Gaudinot’s mass of green hair could make it hard for him to escape the hold, so my prediction is Tim Elliott to defeat Louis Gaudinot by submission.

Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.

170lbs- Pascal Krauss (11-1-0) vs. Hyun Gyu Lim (11-3-1)

What have they done recently?

Krauss- picked up first win after suffering his first career defeat

Lim- 6 straight wins, including his UFC debut

Key Victories

Krauss- Mark Scanlon- Dec, Mike Stumpf- Dec

Lim- Lucio Linhares- KO, Ferrid Kheder- TKO, Marcelo Guimaraes- KO

Key Defeats

Krauss- John Hathaway- Dec

Lim- Dmitry Samoilov- Dec, Greg Soto- Sub

Physical Comparison

Lim- 2″ height and 7″ reach advantage

Strengths

Krauss- striking, submissions ( 7 subs), combinations, leg kicks, Duke Rufus trained fighter, SLpM (5.47), TDD (63%)

Lim- size, striking, knockout power (8 KOs), timing, knees, combinations, counters, sprawl, TDD, size, reach, SLpM (6.89 in debut), Fight IQ

Weaknesses

Krauss- SApM (3.64), inactivity (2 fights since 2010), reach and height disadvantage

Lim- East to West travel, weight cut, cardio, submission defense (2 losses), SApM (5.22 in debut)

Key(s) to Victory

Krauss- Pascal needs to try and mix up his takedowns and clinch fighting with his range striking. If he can force Lim to worry about his TDD that should open up some holes in his striking defense. Additionally, any time spent on the ground or at least defending TDAs should test Lim’s cardio.

Lim- Hyun-Gyu needs to use his reach to keep Krauss out of range and land with power. When Krauss comes forward he can time him with counters and look to land a knee if the German elects to drop for a TDA.

Key(s) to Defeat 

Krauss- If he can’t get inside the 7″ reach of Lim he won’t be able to land with much regularity.

Lim- If his cardio doesn’t hold up beyond the first round he will most likely drop a decision or suffer a stoppage defeat.

Prediction

In his debut, Lim demonstrated a diverse striking attack, with excellent timing, and knockout power. He also showed impressive combat intelligence, gauging his opponent’s tendencies and capitalizing. He was able to pick up on his opponent’s continual dropping of his head at the end of his combos, timed it, and landed a perfect counter knee for the KO. The combination of his striking skill and physical advantages makes him a tough fighter to both attack and defend against, both in close and at distance.

Krauss is a Duke Rufus product and showed an improved striking game in his last fight. He focuses his attack on technique and not just power, which allows to fight a full 15 minutes without a big cardio letdown. His output is high, and he is coming off an impressive effort against Mike Stumpf where he landed 163 significant strikes. That level of success is impressive, but putting into context- he was facing a lower level grappling based fighter with just one prior UFC fight, who had been out of action for 2 years.

Krauss has just a pair of knockout wins, with the majority of his victories by submissions and subs have accounted for 2 of Lim’s 3 career losses. Krauss would benefit tremendously from mixing in his takedowns and he has completed 5 of 9 attempts in 3 UFC bouts. Lim used a heavy sprawl and underhooks to fend off the majority of his opponent’s TDA’s in his debut. He did get put on his back a couple of times, but with his lengthy reach forcing his opponent to shoot from the outside it severely diminishes their rate of success.

Lim appeared to be slowing down in his debut and some of that could be due to the adrenaline dump from making his first UFC appearance. Additionally, Lim cuts a large amount of weight to make 170, so much so that his first fight had to be scrapped because he was so drained from trying to get to the limit. The cut, along with the East to West travel has to be a concern for this fight regarding Lim’s physical capabilities, especially if Krauss can come even close to matching his striking output from Stumpf battle. The trade off is his size and length advantages and Krauss did have a lot of problems finding his range against John Hathaway who isn’t nearly as tall or have the reach of Lim. While the weight cut and travel is a question mark, Lim is the superior striker and should be able to land the more effective offense so my prediction is Hyun-Gyu Lim to defeat Pascal Krauss by TKO.

Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.

135lbs- Chico Camus (12-4-0) vs. Kyung Ho Kang (11-7-0)

What have they done recently?

Camus- 4 fight winning streak snapped in his last bout

Kang- 3 straight losses, followed by a No Contest overturned his UFC debut defeat

Key Victories

Camus- Dustin Pague- Dec, Joe Pearson- TKO, John Hosman- TKO

Kang- Andrew Leone- Sub, Jae Hoon Moon, Shoko Sato- Sub

Key Defeats

Camus- Dustin Kimura- Sub, Jameel Massouh- Dec,

Kang- Alex Caceres- No Contest, Andrew Leone- Dec

Physical Comparison

Kang- 3″ height and 6″ reach advantage

Strengths

Camus- knockout power (4 KOs), boxing, hands speed, footwork, aggression, takedowns (1.68 @ 60%), SApM (1.45), GnP,

Kang- size, submissions (8 wins), grappling, top control, reversals, Judo, takedowns (5 for 9 in debut), top controls, transitions, takedown variety, UFC debut experience

Weaknesses

Camus- height/ reach disadvantage, fight IQ, grappling mechanics, defensive grappling

Kang- East to West travel, significant weight cut, cardio, point scoring (1-3 in decisions)

Key(s) to Victory

Camus- ‘King’ Chico needs to use his footwork, angles, and crisp boxing attack to maintain distance with Kang and test his cardio by forcing him to pursue him.

Kang- Kyung Ho needs to work his Judo/ wrestling attack, take Camus down, maintain top position, and look for submissions.

Key(s) to Defeat

Camus- If Kang can close the distance and nullify Camus’s striking with his grappling.

Kang- The travel from East to West and the weight cut which is significant could take away from his conditioning.

Prediction

Camus has shown serviceable wrestling in each of his two UFC fights, but his fight IQ is a major concern. He made a plethora of grappling mistakes in his submission loss to Dustin Kimura and Dustin Pague also had some success attacking on the ground. Camus should have a striking advantage over Kang with his boxing, but whether he will be able to remain vertical long enough to use it is a huge question mark.

Kang is a strong grappler with a Judo background and 8 wins by submission. He uses a variety of takedowns and aggressively purses his submission attempts from top position. He struggled to maintain constant top control against the lengthy and crafty Alex Caceres, but showed himself to be very good on the mat nonetheless. His striking is almost entirely focused on setting up his grappling and he will need to avoid spending too much time exchanging with Camus on the feet.

The conditioning of Kang was a major concern in his debut and will be here too. He is a big Bantamweight and cuts a lot of weight to get to 135. If he can do it without diminishing himself physically, it is a huge advantage, but if not it can and has cost him. Another factor could be the ever-present Octagon shock that can appeared to impact Kang as well. He should be far more comfortable though in his sophomore appearance. Finally, travelling East to West, from South Korea to the USA, can also be a significant detriment to a fighters performance. It can as much as a week to feel right physically after arriving after such a journey.

Camus is a good striker, but beyond his takedowns, his grappling leaves a lot to be desired. His TDD will be tested against Kang and his defensively liabilities shown from top position will be magnified when he is on his back. With the reach and height advantage of Kang and Chico’s primarily boxing based attack, Camus will have to be aggressive closing the distance to land his strikes. This should afford the Korean plenty of opportunities to change levels or clinch up in pursuit of a takedown. The conditioning of Kang is still a concern, but he should be able to win the first 2 rounds before it becomes a factor or lock up a submission, so my prediction is Kyung Ho Kang to defeat Chico Camus by submission.  

Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.

265lbs- Nikita Krylov (15-2-0) vs. Soa Palelei (18-3-0)

What have they done recently?

Krylov- 3 fight winning streak

Palelei- 8 fight winning streak

Key Victories

Krylov- Gabriel Tampu- TKO, Kilichbek Sarkarboev- TKO, Julian Bogdanov- KO

Palelei- Christian Wellisch- TKO, Bob Sapp- TKO, Sean McCorkle- TKO

Key Defeats

Krylov- Vladimir Mishchenko- Sub

Palelei- Eddie Sanchez- TKO, Daniel Cormier- Sub, Choi Mu-Bae- Sub

Physical Comparison

Palelei- 1″ height and 20 pound weight advantage

Strengths

Krylov- submissions (10 subs), variety of arm and leg submissions, knockout power (5 KOs), all wins by first round finish, takedowns/throws, activity (16 fights in 10 months)

Palelei- BJJ Black belt, wrestling background, knockout power (14 KOs), UFC/Pride experience (2 fights), physically strong, TDD (56%), takedowns (1.59 @ 75%), clinch fighting, knees

Weaknesses

Krylov- UFC debut, elite level inexperience, zero experience after 1st round, lack of speed, wild striker, lack of adversity

Palelei- 8 month layoff, submission defense (2 losses)

Key(s) to Victory

Krylov- All of his fights have finished well inside the first round and he needs to replicate that success to avoid getting dragged into unfamiliar waters in his UFC debut. Submitting a fresh Palelei could be tough, but if he can break him down with some early GnP he could lock on a submission before the first 5 is complete.

Palelei- Soa needs to use his combination of wrestling and BJJ to put Krylov on his back and break him down with GnP and top pressure. The longer Palelei can control this fight with his grappling/ clinch fighting the more likely Krylov is likely to fade.

Key(s) to Defeat

Krylov- A UFC debut, inexperience, and the inability to finish his opponent quickly will be a difficult combination for this young fighter to overcome.

Palelei- He can’t allow Krylov to get his top game going and start submission hunting while he is fresh, a quick start for the Ukrainian will breed confidence.

Prediction

Krylov made his pro MMA debut just last year and has fought 16 times since then. He has compiled an impressive list of first round wins, never advancing beyond the opening 5 minutes, even in his lone defeat. With 5 knockout and 10 submission he is a proven finisher, but the caliber of opponents he has faced is far from elite level. When a young fighter gets off to such a strong start to their career it can really create problems when they are finally faced with real adversity.

Unlike his opponent, Palelei has been around for a number of years and has fought both in the UFC and Pride, along with facing top ranked Heavyweight Daniel Cormier under the Xtreme MMA banner. He has come up short in his battles with most next level opponents; losing to Cormier, Eddie Sanchez at UFC 79, and Choi Mu-Bae at Pride 28, but he does hold wins over former UFC fighters Sean McCorkle, and a pair against Brad Morris. He has a solid grappling base with a BJJ Black belt and Freestyle wrestling background. Although these credentials have not translated to big submission numbers; he is 4-2 in fights ended by submission, he is still a threat on the ground. He has 14 wins by KO or TKO and one of his biggest weapons are his knees along the cage and in the clinch.

Krylov has a decent submission game, but unless he can gain top position early on Palelei he is going to struggle to use this aspect of his game. His striking is wild and pretty rough, with the main focus of his attack on closing the distance and establishing body control. Palelei should be the bigger man, with more experience, and more well rounded skill set, so my prediction is Soa Palelei to defeat Nikita Krylov by TKO.

Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.

155lbs Ryan Couture (6-2-0) vs. Al Iaquinta (5-2-1)

What have they done recently?

Couture- 4 fight winning streak snapped in UFC debut

Iaquinta- back to back losses including UFC debut

Key Victories

Couture- Conor Heun- TKO, Joe Duarte- Split Dec, K.J. Noons- Split Dec

Iaquinta- TUF Wins- Jon Tuck- Dec, Myles Jury- Split Dec, Andy Ogle- TKO, Vinc Pichel- Dec

Key Defeats

Couture- Matt Ricehouse- Dec, Ross Pearson- TKO

Iaquinta- Pat Audinwood- Sub, Michael Chiesa- Sub

Physical Comparison

Couture- 1″ height and 3″ reach advantages

Strengths

Couture- Strikeforce experience (7 fights), UFC debut experience, height/ reach advantage, SLpM (3.65), takedowns (1.85 @ 35%), grappling, submissions (2 wins), TDD 54%

Iaquinta- BJJ Purple belt, TUF experience, UFC debut experience, knockout power (3 KOs), wrestling, Serra-Longo training camp

Weaknesses

Couture- inexperience (8 fights), striking defense, chin (1 KO defeat), power strikers

Iaquinta- inexperience (8 fights), 14 month layoff, submission defense (2 losses)

Key(s) to Victory

Couture- Ryan needs to use his length and work his Muay Thai from just outside of Iaquinta’s range. If Couture can get this fight to the ground in a dominant position he could start looking for submissions.

Iaquinta- Al needs to land his combinations with power and test the questionable striking defense and chin of Couture. The more frequently he can land his power strikes, the less aggressive Couture is going to be when attacking.

Key(s) to Defeat

Couture- In each of his last 3 fights he has appeared hesitant to engage once getting tagged with a few big shots, that will prevent him from mounting much offense if that happens again.

Iaquinta- His submission defense is questionable and if Couture can gain top position and or back mount he will be at risk of losing a decision or possible submission.

Prediction

Iaquinta had a tonne of momentum and showed a lot of promise on his season of the Ultimate Fighter, but came up short in the finals. Since that fight he has endured a 14 month inactive stint, which is a red flag. Ring rust is a real thing which can impact a young fighter, but there is also a positive gain. Iaquinta trains out of a very good gym at Serra-Longo working with along side Middleweight champion Chris Weidman, 205er Gian Villante, and formerly with top 10 ranked MW Costa Phillippou. There are a number of examples of TUF competitors taking an extended amount of time away from the cage to hone their skills and return to action with success. Most recently, Myles Jury debuted with back to back wins over Michael Johnson and Ramsey Nijem and James Vick also submitted Nijem, both after prolong absences. It is not always the case, but this amount of time away from the cage for a young fighter with the right supporting cast can allow them to round into a much better fighter then previously seen and Iaquinta seems to fit the bill.

Couture fought his entire career with Strikeforce and slowly worked his way up the talent ranks. He is an above average height for his division which usually gives him a length advantage over most opponents. He is working to improve his striking and he has a serviceable ground game. The biggest knock on Couture is his striking defense and subsequent struggles with heavy handed opponents.  In each of his fights with Joe Duarte, KJ Noons, and Ross Pearson he noticeably struggled when getting tagged with big shots from his opponents. Fortunately, Duarte slowed down and the Noons fight ended in an incredibly controversial decision. The Pearson fight proved his undoing as Pearson was able to get inside and eventually land a finishing blow on Ryan. Iaquinta hits hard and possesses the type of power to finish when he starts landing with regularity, something that Couture will need to avoid at all costs.

Couture’s debut fight was a huge step up in competition that he clearly was not ready for. On paper this fight makes much more sense, but the combination of Couture’s struggles with power punchers and the real potential for a vastly improved Iaquinta are two huge knocks against the son of a Hall of Famer. If Couture can drag this fight to the ground in a good position he could attack the questionable sub D of Iaquinta, but working along side a talent wrestler like Chris Weidman should help Al to round out his defensive grappling so my prediction is Al Iaquinta to defeat Ryan Couture by TKO.

Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.

185lbs- Magnus Cedenblad (10-4-0) vs. Jared Hamman (13-5-0)

What have they done recently?

Cedenblad- 7 fight winning streak snapped in UFC debut

Hamman- back to back defeats, 1-3 in his last 4

Key Victories

Cedenblad- Dan Edwards- Sub, Benas Mikalauskas- Sub, Allan Love- Sub

Hamman- Travis Wiuff- KO, Aaron Rosa- Sub, Rodney Wallace- Dec, CB Dollaway- TKO

Key Defeats

Cedenblad- Francis Carmont- Sub

Hamman- Alexander Gustafsson- KO, Kyle Kingsbury- Dec, Costa Philippou- KO, Michael Kuiper- TKO

Physical Comparison

Cedenblad- 4″ reach advantage

Strengths 

Cedenblad- knockout power (6 KOs), UFC debut experience, reach advantage, 7 first round finishes, grappling

Hamman- UFC experience (7 fights), knockout power (10 wins), durability, heart, SLpM (5.18), takedowns (1.6 @ 50%)

Weaknesses

Cedenblad- 16 month layoff, UFC inexperience (1 fight), submission defense (3 losses),

Hamman- 12 month layoff, injuries, chin (4 KOs), SApM (3.92), TDD (31%), striking defense

Key(s) to Victory

Cedenblad- Magnus has to get on Hamman early to prevent him from settling in after such a long time away from the cage. If he can mix up his attack between strikes and grappling he should be able to wear down his opponent setting up either a late stoppage or decision win.

Hamman- Jared needs to draw upon his veteran experience to help him overcome the potential for ring rust. He needs to make this a dirty fight and overwhelm Cedenblad with an aggressive barrage of strikes.

Key(s) to Defeat

Cedenblad- If he can’t deal with the overwhelming ability of Hamman to both absorb and dish out punishment.

Hamman- The injuries have piled up and his chin could be fading after taking so much damage, if this is true his aggressive style will be to his detriment.

Prediction

Hamman showed a lot of heart in his last fight and answered the bell despite a nasty leg injury. He is the type of fighter that takes a tonne of damage and hopes to dish just enough in the process to put his opponent away. This type of style can take a toll on a fighter and Hamman’s chin and body appear to be showing that now. He has taken 1 year between fights to help him recover from his injuries and this could lead to a rejuvenated ‘Messenger’  and  it also needs to be recognized that he is only 31 years old.

Cedenblad has also been away from the cage for over a year, so he too could be fighting some ring rust. He has won the majority of his fights by knockout (6), but he doesn’t appear to be the typical power striker that has given Hamman difficulty in the past. His ground game was his main weapon in his debut against Francis Carmont. He got off to slow start, rebounded to put Carmont in a couple of bad positions on the mat, and finally succumbed to the overwhelming combination of ground and pound and an RNC.

Hamman’s ground game is a bit of a bit of a question mark, but Cedenblad doesn’t have the wrestling attack on par with the type of fighters that usually give him trouble. The manner in which the Swede folded under the attack of his opponent in his debut and the fact that all 4 of his defeats are via some form of finish isn’t encouraging against a fighter like Hamman that can dish it out at such a high volume. Jarred throws with power and knows how to finish when he has his opponent hurt. He is a difficult guy to put away, even when injured, but the same can’t be said for Cedenblad, so my prediction is Jared Hamman to defeat Magnus Cedenblad by TKO.

Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.


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3 Responses to “UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 Prelim Predictions”

  1. hugefan says:

    I never do this, but you are seriously the best MMA analyst out there. You don’t judge a fighter by just one fight or follow the typical “reputation” or “word of mouth” of a fighter and actually look at their skill sets in a non-biased manner.’

    Seriously more MMA people need to do this but it seems impossible for them to avoid the narrative of the fighters and just concentrate on what they can and cannot do.

  2. Mitch says:

    Hey, I hate to be “that guy” but Hamman has not been away for 2 years, he last fought at UFC 150 a year ago. Just confused as to why you thought it was so long lol. Great prelim predictions too. Should be a lot of close fights.

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