UFC 163: Aldo vs. Jung – Results and Bet Pack

Scott Johnson

UFC 163 was yet another action packed Brazilian card with a myriad of homegrown fighters emerging victorious including the most high profile fighter on the card; Featherweight champion Jose Aldo. Aldo retained his title with a TKO stoppage of challenger Chan Sung Jung following an ugly shoulder injury sustained by Jung, setting the Rio crowd into a frenzy. Kamikaze Overdrive finished with a respectable 9-3-0 record and now lets get to the fight by fight breakdowns.

Viscardi Andrade def. Britol Marunde by TKO

Viscardi came out looking calm and composed, capitalized on an opening and ended the fight before Marunde could get any of his own offense off.

Prediction: Andrade by TKO

Francimar Barroso def. Ednaldo Oliveira by Dec

Barroso came out with a fantastic gameplan; landing leg kicks and using his speed to shutdown Oliveira’s offense. In round 2 Oliveira was able to get off some GnP after gaining top position, but opted to stand back up despite scoring the best offense of the fight from the position. A combination or takedowns and two tired fighters lead Barroso to the eventual victory.

Prediction: Francimar Barroso by TKO

Rani Yahya def. Josh Clopton by Dec

Not much a of surprise here, other than the finish. Yahya dominate pretty much the entire fight with his grappling, but credit should be given to Clopton for avoiding the submission.

Prediction: Yahya by Sub

Ian McCall def. Iliarde Santos by Dec

McCall returned to form with a solid victory, but Santos put up much better fight then most expected. McCall had a few momentary lapse, but overall it was a well played out win. McCall versus fellow UFC 163 winner John Lineker would be a great fight next.

Prediction: McCall by TKO

Sergio Moraes def. Neil Magny by Sub

Magny was unable to maintain separation early and Moraes was locked up a top mount triangle and brutally submitted his opponent adding in some elbows. For the 11th time in the Public Picks Section, the Public was on the underdog (Magny) in the 51-54% range and their record fell to 1-10. Keep an eye on this trend for future picks.

Prediction: Magny by Dec

Amanda Nunes def. Sheila Gaff by TKO

Not the stand and trade slugfest that many anticipate, but still these girls go after it with more of a grappling based fight. Nunes’s size and technique eventually took over and she over power her opponent and dropped some serious top position elbows. Nunes could be an excellent fit with Liz Carmouche in the not too distant future with both girls surviving their bouts in decent condition.

Prediction:  Nunes by TKO

Anthony Perosh def. Vinny Magalhaes by KO

Probably the most unexpected outcome of the night with Perosh KOing Magalhaes in just 14 seconds. Unfortunately, we saw next to no grappling from this pairing of world class grapplers, but since an entertaining albeit brief bout.

Prediction: Magalhaes by Sub

John Lineker def. Jose Maria by TKO

The first round didn’t go exactly according to plan with the underdog catching Lineker with a great spinning backfist and hurting him early. It appeared in round two that Maria hurt his leg or foot causing him to collapse to the ground leading to the eventual TKO finish. As I already mentioned McCall vs Lineker would be great.

Prediction: Lineker by TKO

Thales Leites def. Tom Watson by Dec

Watson showed how resilient he is, but still took a beating based on his inability to defend the takedowns of the Brazilian. Leites did what he had to do to win the fight, but appeared to gas near the end of the bout despite controlling most of the action.

Prediction: Leites by Sub

Cezar Ferreira def. Thiago Santos by Sub

Ferreira took next to no time finishing his opponent. He started off by rocking Santos on the feet and then quickly locking up a submission once the fight hit the mat, ending it all in just 47 seconds. It would be interesting to see if Ferreira steps up should an injury fall a MW on one of the upcoming events considering how quickly the fight ended.

Prediction: Ferreira by Sub

Phil Davis def. Lyoto Machida by Dec

In an interestingly scored bout, Phil Davis upset top ranked Lyoto Machida with three 29-28 scores. This bout harkened back to the Machida versus Rampage Jackson bout, where Machida was elusive and forced his opponent into the role of the aggressor, despite landing a limited amount of strikes. Davis did manage to score two takedowns, each at the end of the opening 2 rounds which could have turned the judges in his favour, but the damage done from the position was minimal. Again, this fight brings into question Machida’s style as he was able to keep the fight vertical against an opponent who he should have had a striking advantage against, but was unable to put together a decisive effort.

From this predictor’s point of view I felt that Machida did enough to win at least 2 rounds (1 & 3), I can see how Davis continually moving forward and throwing strikes could sway the judges. With the loss, Machida’s return title shot against Jon Jones is all but gone now. This set back could encourage Machida to make the long discussed cut to 185, if his friend and former Middleweight champion Anderson Silva fails to reclaim his thrown later this year. Davis now holds wins over top ranked fighters in Machida, Little Nog, and Alexander Gustafsson which should be enough to warrant him title shot considerations. Phil Davis versus the winner of Glover Teixeira and Ryan Bader could be on tap down the road.

Prediction: Lyoto Machida by KO

Jose Aldo def. Chan Sung Jung by TKO to retain UFC Featherweight Title

This fight didn’t exactly live up to the hype that bestowed upon it. It was far from a boring fight, but it wasn’t the barn burner that was promised. Potentially the most significant aspect prior to the knockout was that the Champ attempt next to no leg kicks despite Jung’s lead leg linger out in front begging to be blasted. Aldo did work in a number of takedowns which helped him to score some needed points with the judges and they also served to send a message to Jung and future opponents that the champ is more than just a striker.

It appeared that KZ was starting to open up his attack in the second half of the fight after a few tentative rounds, but unfortunately his shoulder wasn’t ready to bear the burden of a winging punch and gruesomely popped out of place. Full credit to the challenger, as many fighters would have simply motioned to the ref for a stoppage after the injury, but Jung attempted to pop his shoulder back into place while preparing to fend off the oncoming assault from Aldo. Aldo did what he had to do and finished the fight to retain his title. While Jung was clearly fighting with a severe injury, he elected to remain in the fight for a few more moments and Aldo was right to move in for the proverbial kill.

Depending on the injury, KZ could be out of action for a while, but if not or upon his return a fight with Chad Mendes would be a welcome pairing. Both have now been stopped by the champion and while KZ is coming off a loss, Mendes (who has a scheduled fight with Clay Guida) could be riding a 3 fight winning streak. Yet, with the desire to see new challengers (Swanson and Lamas specifically) get their opportunities at the title, it would be a mistake to pair either KZ or Mendes with these fighters and potentially extinguish their title hopes with neither the Zombie or Money Mendes expected to be challenging Aldo in the near future.

Finally, the Champ did what he needed to do to win the fight. He didn’t look as sharp or as dangerous as he did against Frankie Edgar, but still he was dominant. I would expect that Cub Swanson would make for a good next fight for Jose, but Ricardo Lamas owns a win over Cub and just as a respectable a winning streak which  makes for a strong case as well. The other option is Aldo moving up to challenge for the title at Lightweight which would open up a whole new realm of possibilities.

Prediction: Jose Aldo by TKO

Final Thoughts…

This was a tough card to create a profitable betting scheme for. The books have picked up on the UFC’s willingness to create fan friendly and local fighter friendly matchups and the odds reflect it. There were a few upsets to be had and a couple of surprising results and overall my prediction record of 9-3-0 is acceptable from my point of view. The Bet Pack is posted below, please check it out.

The Brian Stann experiment filling in for an absent Joe Rogan was a success in my books. I was a little leery at first, but I felt Stann did an excellent job even if Brandon Vera had some choice words for the former Military man regarding his opinion of the Davis/ Machida decision.

Finally, the next event looks fantastic top to bottom and with this many marquee names on the card there will be more than a few opportunities to break the books and take home some cash.

 

UFC 163

*I have started to use some Props in my parlays, if your book doesn’t offer the prop or won’t allow them to be used in a parlay- use a pick from my confidence list.

Parlay Doubles

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Neil Magny $2.13
Selection 2: Thales Leites $1.84
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Price: $3.92
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Neil Magny $2.13
Selection 2: Francimar Barroso $2.20
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Price: $4.69
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Thales Leites $1.84
Selection 2: Viscardi Andrade $1.63
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Price: $3.00

Parlay Triples

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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Neil Magny $2.13
Selection 2: Ian McCall $1.28
Selection 3:
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Price: $3.57
 
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Parlay #5
===================================================
Selection 1: Thales Leites $1.84
Selection 2: Francimar Barroso $2.20
Selection 3: Vinny Magalhaes $1.30
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Price: $.5.26

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Parlay Double-Doubles

Parlay #6
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Selection 1: Francimar Barroso $2.20
Selection 2: Viscardi Andrade $1.63
Selection 3:
Selection 4:
===================================================
Price: $6.06
 
Parlay #7
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Selection 1: Neil Magny $2.13
Selection 2: Thales Leites $1.84
Selection 3: Cezar Ferreira $1.25
Selection 4: Vinny Magalhaes $1.30
===================================================
Price: $6.37
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Viscardi Andrade $1.63 vs

The growing trend with Brazil based events is that the UFC loads up the cards with squash or at least mismatched fights that favour the home based fighter. This in turn gets the crowd fired up, makes them either a) want to come back to the next show or b) tell their friends how awesome it was and they buy tickets next time, and/or c) the crowd goes nuts all night and gives the impression of how much fun it is to go to one of these events. Off the top of my head I can’t remember the last time there was a legit non-Brazilian fighter who was heavily favoured to smash a Brazilian in Brazil. I’m sure there were a few, (Fitch did beat down E. Silva, but he was the underdog) I just can’t recall. For this fight Andrade is more well rounded then Marunde and, despite Bristol’s heart I just don’t think he belongs at this level. To put things in perspective; Viscardi advanced to the semi-finals on his TUF season, while Marunde sputtered in the early stages of maybe the worst season in TUF history. This isn’t the best way to evaluate this fight, but it does give some insight. Overall, there is a lack of great betting options on this card with so many one-sided fights so if we are going to make some Lemonade out of the lemons were handed we are going to need to take some risks. I think a small bet on Andrade is a good play and I would also consider parlaying him with some of the other decent paying options especially Leites and Magny.

Francimar Barroso $2.20 vs

Here is one of the fights I am banking on to make some coin. Oliveira is going to be a giant LHW at 6’7″, but the cut and increased speed of his new division could be a major problem. His striking is his biggest weapon (8 KOs), but it really isn’t all that great. I could see him clipping Barroso as he came forward (all 3 of his losses are by KO), but that sounds like a puncher’s chance. For the most part I expect some tense moments early with Francimar is trying to figure out the distance, but he will get inside and do some damage. Eventually, Oliveira will slow down from the cut and trying to catch the smaller/ faster man and things will become a little more one sided. Barroso is a pretty strong fighter and he comes from a camp in Brazil (Nova Uniao) who is known for both their BJJ and their wrestling (offensively and defensively). I expect he will have the ability to exploit the big man’s horrendous ground game which will score points and further diminish his cardio. Again, not a lot of options on this card unless you are willing to take a shot on a big underdog so I think that this should be one of your bigger bets for the event. I have 2 betting options ranked higher for value then this fight, so you can do a mid-range bet or if you want to try all 3 on the bigger side this is worth a shot. Barroso also adds some much needed pop to your parlays so sprinkle him into those plays as well.

Josh Clopton $6.00 vs

It is hard to believe that these are probably the most favourable odds being offered for this fight out of all of the books. I hope this doesn’t come back to bite me in the ass, but this is a squash match if I have ever seen one. Clopton failed to make it into the TUF house and then got smashed in his UFC debut back in 2011. Do you know what that results in? A fight with an opponent that has won 2 in a row, 3 of his last 4, with his only loss during that run coming against arguably the second best FW in the world- Chad Mendes. Yahya is an uber dangerous ground fighter and holds wins over a number of big names. He will drag Clopton to the ground and eventually submit him. I am thinking a nice RNC late round 1 or early round 2. These odds are not okay to bet, sure Yahya is most likely going to win this bout, but he adds next to nothing to your parlays. I did talk about the cardio issues that Rani showed in his last bout that nearly cost him, but now that I have had more time to reflect on it, I don’t think it is going to be an issue. Yahya was fighting in Japan last time out and there is always the talk of the East to West travel wreaking havoc on fighters and the same can be said for West to East travel which clearly impacted Rani. I don’t think this will be an issue fighting in his own backyard. As far as betting on Clopton based purely on value- NOPE! Yahya wins this fight, keep your cash in your pants and we will invest it elsewhere.

Ian McCall $1.28 vs

Wait…what? Could it be? A Brazilian fighter on a Brazil card, heavily expected to get his backside handed to him by a superior fighter not from Brazil? Yup it is, but this is another UFC ploy at work here. McCall was the top ranked Flyweight when he signed with the company, but dropped that label after a 3 fight winless skid against the current 125 pound champ and the next best guy in the division. No shame in his performance during this skid, he should have been given the nod or at least a 4th round against MM in his debut and he has fought admirably against top level comp. Now the UFC knows that he needs a win. Not just for him, but the division too. With challengers far and few between if McCall could string together 3 wins, starting here, he could easily be granted a title shot with MM by early 2014. Now to the fight, Santos is a tough cookie and is better then his debut suggested. Cutting to 125 should add to his physical advantages, but he is still outgunned here by just a better fighter. I think McCall is worth inclusion on your parlays. He pays….cough…well for this card (he pays better or equal to the favourite in 7 of the 12 fights from this card). Usually I would shy away from a bet like this, but I think he wins and can add a little bit of value to your card. Neil Magny $2.13 vs

When this fight was made I couldn’t wait to see the odds posted and was quite happy when they were. Moraes is a great ground fighter, high level but his ability to get in a position to use those skills leaves a lot to be desired! I like Sergio’s quote prior to his TUF final, he stated that his opponent is more likely to get him pregnant then to submit him. Funny stuff and it shows how much confidence he has in his ground work. At the same time is striking is very poor. His struggles on the feet make it hard for him to get in range to set up his takedowns without badly telegraphing his shot. Now he is going to be faced with a 9″ reach differential against Magny, making it even harder to close that gap. Magny has decent striking and uses his reach well which is going to be key. Additionally, he has excellent TDD along the cage where Moraes gets a lot of his attempts. Further, Magny does a nice job of forcing his opponent to work hard and delivers some damage from the position which will quicken the slowing (odd way of saying that) down of Sergio. I love this bet and think it should be one of your 2 biggest plays for the card! As long as Magny doesn’t succumb to the pressure of fighting in enemy territory he wins this bout. Parlays are also a must play here. Consider rotating Magny, Barroso, Andrade, and Leites together in a system play. Sheila Gaff $3.60 vs

Honestly speaking this fight gave me pause. Nunes is most likely going to employ a strategy that Gaff will enjoy. I did say Nunes would benefit from using her grappling, but I think she is going to come out looking to throw bombs. I really expect this fight to be an entertaining one, not matter how long or short it lasts. The deciding factor here was the size. Gaff has been most effective at 125, while Nunes has shown her devastating power carries well even against the bigger women at 145. I expect that Gaff will eventually breakdown from the impact of exchanging with bigger fighter and crumble when Nunes starts landing big shots with more frequency. Again similar to McCall, I think Nunes is worth inclusion on your parlays, but a little more aware of how much you use her. Gaff is a tough girl and could exploit Nune’s potential cardio issues if Amanda can’t keep up with her pace early.

Vinny Magalhaes $1.30 vs

Two ground fighters meeting here, that are usually use to chasing an unwilling opponent while looking to initiate a grappling exchange. I’ll be curious to see how the opening moments of this fight transpire. I expect to see some sloppy kickboxing and then the possibility of both men trying to pull guard. No that’s silly, right? But honestly I expect to see them on the ground inside the first 180 seconds. Perosh might have a slight wrestling edge, but I think that Magalhaes’s skill will win out leading to a submission. If Perosh was known for his cardio I could see him focusing solely on defending early hoping to exploit a gassed out Vinny late, but the ‘Hippo’ isn’t known for going deep into fights either. Again, not a tonne of well paying favourites on the card, so I think that Vinny makes a decent parlay inclusion. There are also some prop bets that I am considering, I really wish that this was a main card fight because then a method of finish bet would be available across the board and would make for a nice potential bet. I’ll look around and get back to you in the prop section.

John Lineker $1.26 vs

My Mom use to do this and if you are older then me you will probably remember it better then I do. Women use to put padding in the shoulders of their jackets ect to try and build up their shoulders and for some reason that is what came to mind when I saw Tome’s record. His numbers look great, but upon further investigation he has fought a tonne of inexperienced opponents; some making their debut others only a couple fights into their pro career. Some of the fights were so one-sided that I struggle to believe these bouts would have even been sanctioned under the ruling of an American MMA commission. He does have skill, but I think his capabilities are being inflated by the low level opponents he has faced. Lineker on the other hand is rolling and doing it against some decent comp. He has won 2 in a row after an exciting debut loss and he could be close to a title shot. As I talked about in my new Rumours page, he could only be one more impressive victory away from a shot at the gold. I think Lineker will scorch Tome with his superior striking repertoire and seemingly improved takedown defense. With Tome’s high submission numbers that was the first thing I took into consideration when I began examining this fight, but if a very strong Sambo fighter can’t get Lineker on his back I don’t see Jose doing it either. Rinse and repeat, Lineker should be used like McCall. Next Thales Leites $1.84 vs

Either Leites is being undervalued or Kong is being overvalued. He lost a pretty clear fight against Tavares and started strong, nearly was stopped, and then finished a (everyone new it was coming) gassed Stanislav Nedkov. Leites isn’t a vicious takedown machine, but based on the combined 10 takedowns in just under 5 rounds of action and the relative ease that they were achieve with I think Watson is going to be in trouble here. Tavares had success on the ground against Watson, gaining some pretty solid positions and nearly locking up a submission or two. Tavares is a decent fighter, but no where near as dangerous on the mat as Thales. I expect that it will only take the Brazilian a couple of sequences, maybe only one, on the mat to finish this fight. There is always the possibility that Watson is able to land a big shot early and change the pace of the fight, but I expect that he will come out hesitant because of the threat of a takedown and if not it won’t take long for the concern to grow. I think that Leites is a great bet and make sure you get on him before his value drops. Shop around as well, because I have seen at least one site where he is the underdog and several where this fight is set at even. He should be one of your top 2 bets on the night as well as a regular player in your parlays.

Cezar Ferreira $1.25 vs

Honestly I have Ferreira winning this bout, but boy am I not impressed with him. The holes in his striking are so big that you could drive a truck through them or at the least a nicely timed counter strike. Even someone as poorly versed in the striking game as Sergio Moraes was able to land and hurt Ferreira catching him both coming forward and in his back swing. I’m not saying that he can’t tighten things up, but if he plans to play with the bigger boys of the division he needs to. He also has some ground skills that I expect him to use in this fight. Santos struggles with TDD and being undersized moving from WW to MW will make this a tough aspect for him to overcome. I was quite disappointed with Hester had to drop out of this fight as I expected him to be the dog and bettable one at that. Ferreira wins and I am willing to throw him into a parlay or too, but at the same time if you feel like leaving him off your card that is not a bad play at all.

Phil Davis $3.65 vs

Machida represents that ceiling of fighters that Phil Davis can’t seem to get by with his current level of striking. Rashad Evans was the first to expose him for his lack of striking and how ineffective he can be without his wrestling base. Yes he did beat Magalhaes primarily with his striking, but Vinny is in the same situation as a grapple first strike second type fighter. The only question I have here is does Davis wrestling pedigree give him the tools to close the distance with Machida. One mistake that guys like Ryan Bader, Rashad Evans, and Dan Henderson have all made is that they tried to strike with Machida instead of using their wrestling base. If Davis focuses solely on wrestling and comes out and pursues that takedown that might be his best bet. At the same time, blindly looking for takedowns could lead him getting countered and knocked out. Machida is going to have a significant technical striking advantage and his natural style of maintaining that significant distance between himself and his opponent should help him to overcome Davis’s wrestling. I don’t think that Lyoto will have as easy a time as he did against Bader, but I still think he takes this one. I have him with a great chance to win by knockout as Davis really hasn’t been tagged the way Machida can pop it and if he can turn a shot into a counter strike the results could be devastating. I think Machida is worth inclusion on your parlay list, but nothing else. Based purely on the skill level of his opponent I think that you should make sure to have many options without him as well. Jose Aldo $1.14 vs

Will the next great Brazilian Champion fall? I don’t think so, I was on Chris Weidman, but not Chan Sung Jung. KZ’s is good because he can move forward, take what his opponent can dish out and land his own strikes. That might work against some fighters, but not Jose Aldo. If you allow Aldo to tee of on your legs or land his combination you are going to be one hurting unit and if not it is probably because you are unconscious. KZ is going to make for an exciting/ interesting opponent but I just don’t see him having much for Aldo. The pace and cardio of Frankie Edgar wasn’t enough to definitively overcome the champion and while he did have more success then pretty much anyone else that has entered the cage with Aldo, KZ doesn’t have those characteristics. I expect that Aldo will light up KZ by exploiting his aggressive forward push and tendency to leave himself exposed when he attacks. With the lack of good value bets I picked Aldo by TKO at $1.63 as my #5 which is probably worth a look. The Over/Under prop is also worth some consideration as well. Other then the props I think that Aldo straight up is just not an option with such a low price.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1.

2. Ian McCall $1.28

3. John Lineker $1.26

4. Lyoto Machida $1.31

5. Jose Aldo $1.14

====================

6. Vinny Magalhaes $1.30

7. Neil Magny $2.13

8. Thales Leites $1.84

9. Cezar Ferreira $1.25

10.

11. Francimar Barroso $2.20

12. Viscardi Andrade $1.63


Kamikaze Overdrive Fighter Prediction Records

Overall Total Event Record: 27-13-2

Best Prediction Record: Phil Davis (5-0-0)

Worst Prediction Record: Ian McCall (0-2-1)

Best Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights): Phil Davis vs. Lyoto Machida- (9-1-0)

Worst Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights): Jose Aldo vs. Chan Sung Jung- (4-3-0)

Main Card

Jose Aldo (3-1-0) vs. Chan Sung Jung (1-2-0)

Phil Davis (5-0-0) vs. Lyoto Machida (4-1-0)

Cezar Ferreira (0-0-0) vs. Thiago Santos (0-0-0)

Thales Leites (0-0-0) vs. Tom Watson (2-0-0)

John Lineker (1-2-0) vs. Jose Maria Tome (0-0-0)

Preliminary Card

Vinny Magalhaes (1-1-0) vs. Anthony Perosh (1-2-0)

Sheila Gaff (1-0-0) vs. Amanda Nunes (0-0-0)

Neil Magny (1-0-0) vs. Sergio Moraes (1-0-0)

Ian McCall (0-2-1) vs. Iliarde Santos (0-1-0)

Josh Clopton (1-0-0) vs. Rani Yahya (2-1-0)

Francimar Barroso (0-0-0) vs. Ednaldo Oliveira (1-0-0)

Viscardi Andrade (0-0-0) vs. Bristol Marunde (2-0-0)


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Neil Magny $2.13 I love this play he has the skills to keep this fight out of Sergio realm of dominances and then exploit him on the feet. The 9″ reach advantage is a nice touch too.
2. Thales Leites $1.84 I expect these odds to drop, but he is more then capable of finishing Watson on the ground and probably wont need the 5 TDs per fight that Watson has given up in each of his first 2 bouts.
3. Francimar Barroso $2.20 A 6’7″ LHW is almost too good to be true and I think it probably will be. Barroso is flying under the radar and the odds reflect it.
4. Viscardi Andrade $1.63 I am basing this play more on his opponent then what Andrade can do. I think Marunde has a tonne of hear but that will only carry you so far.
5. Jose Aldo by TKO/KO/DQ $1.63 Value plays get pretty thin after the first 4, but Aldo by knockout makes sense to me. KZ is known for taking damage and I don’t see him being able to survive 5 rounds of it against the Champ.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. $4.08 He does have a lot of experience even if his record is padded. If Lineker comes out too aggressive a mistake is a possibility. There aren’t a lot of big betting options here but maybe Tome is worth a small bet.
2. $4.28 I really don’t think Silva wins this fight, but I am not that impressed with Ferreira and a small bet would pay big.
3. No Play
4.
5.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.


Prop Bets-

Josh Clopton/

Neil Magny/

Sheila Gaff/

Vinny Magalhaes to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $4.81If their grappling skills result in a sloppy kickboxing bout then Vinny might be able to exploit Perosh’s suspect chin. If they do go to the ground, while a submission is likely I could see Magalhaes gaining a dominant position and opting to GnP for the finish instead of attempting a sub and risk losing the position to a good grappler.

Thales Leites to win by Submission $4.00- I didn’t think that this number was going to be set so high, so we have to hit it. For some reason the line makers are overlooking Watsons TDD issues and Leites superior submission skills when compared to the last 2 guys that put him on the ground with regularity. Maybe I am missing something, but I hope not.

Phil Davis/

Jose Aldo to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $1.63- I already mentioned why I think this is a good bet. I just think KZ will be too easy to hit and Aldo will do too much damage for this fight to go the distance.