UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman Post Fight Podcast & Bet Pack
There is a new UFC Middleweight champion, which is a statement we haven’t been able to say in many years. Anderson Silva’s run as champion came to an abrupt end at the hands of (still) undefeated challenger Chris Weidman. Frankie Edgar picked up his first win in 4 fights and Cub Swanson took a huge step in his own title quest.
Make sure you check out my post UFC 162 podcast where I breakdown the event and give you my two cents on the aftermath of UFC 162. The Bet Packs are also posted below so don’t forget to check them out.
*I have started to use some Props in my parlays, if your book doesn’t offer the prop or won’t allow them to be used in a parlay- use a pick from my confidence list.
Parlay Doubles=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Roger Gracie $2.24 Selection 2: Dennis Siver $3.01 =================================================== Price: $6.74 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Dennis Siver $3.01 =================================================== Price: $9.81 =================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Andrew Craig $1.77 =================================================== Price: $4.76 =================================================== Parlay #4 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Roger Gracie $2.24 =================================================== Price: $4.03
Parlay Triples=================================================== Parlay #5 =================================================== Selection 1: Dennis Siver $3.01 Selection 2: Selection 3: Seth Baczynski $1.37 =================================================== Price: $7.42
==================================================Parlay #6 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Andrew Craig $1.77 Selection 3: Roger Gracie $2.24 =================================================== Price: $12.93
Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns
David Mitchell $4.25 vs
To me this fight is a total mismatch and is being put together as a punishment for Pierce. Pierce has only lost to the elite of the division and by the narrowest of margins. D-Mitch just isn’t there. Pierce has been running his mouth and outside of the Simpson knockout he has put together some borrowing, but dominant, decision wins. I don’t mind what he does in the cage, but the average fan and the UFC brass want more, especially if you are going to try and talk a big game. Pierce is getting buried on the prelims and should he get upset in this fight, the UFC could swing that axe and rid themselves of a problem. Pierce is dangerous because he has the skills to hang with and possibly beat the best in the division, but as far as the UFC is concerned they have no interest in him as a top contender- see Jon Fitch. For betting purposes, there isn’t much you can do here outside of using Pierce on your parlays. I think he is pretty safe bet to win, but a single bet has such a minimal return, but he does bump your parlay up in value. Normally I would say pass on this fight do to Pierce’s low price, but I think he takes this fight easily.
Seth Baczynski $1.37 vs
Similar to the fight above I think that this bout is a bit of a mismatch, but Melancon could show us something we haven’t seen before. Honestly, the former Strikeforce fighter is probably one and done here unless he wins or puts on a FOTN performance and even that might not be enough. Melancon hasn’t fought since 2011 and the ring rust/ debut factor should be in full effect. There is always that unknown about a guy who we haven’t seen in so long, but honestly without real fight time in that long a stretch it is hard to back him. Combine these factors with the massive size differential as the former MW and one of the biggest WW faces off with a guy that is more suited to fight at 155 and that is enough to pick Baczynski. I think Seth wins this and at $1.37 he can contribute to your parlay bets and should be considered as a decent add-on.
Gabriel Gonzaga $1.42 vs
I like Dave Herman, but the guy just seems to lack the mental component to go along with his skills. He is quite skilled, don’t get me wrong, but what was he thinking against Big Nog? He has been put through drug rehab and that could serve to clean up some of his issues, but again that is a major uncertainty. One thing that is certain is that he will be fighting for his UFC life here and will be cut with a 4th straight loss. Gabe needs to get this fight to the ground and work his submissions, standing with Herman could be a problem for a guy that has been KOed so many times in his career. Peewee’s defensive wrestling is decent, but I think Gabe will be persistent enough to drag him down to the ground and set up a sub. If Herman has straighten things out he could pull this one out and that is why I suggest that you tread carefully. I might consider using Gabe in a parlay bet, but it will be pretty minimal. I might consider a small single bet on Herman as well as a prop that I am looking at, see below.
Edson Barboza $1.20 vs
I don’t want to spend much time here. The original fight between Barboza and Makdessi was much better and unless Oliveira can catch him with a big shot he really doesn’t have much of a chance here. He doesn’t have the striking skills to hang long term on the feet and his wrestling isn’t good enough to take Barboza down at all or at least consistently. Edson wins this fight and most likely does it with a brutal knockout. If Yves Edwards (not a knock on Yves) can render him unconscious, then so can Barboza. Probably the best play here is a prop, but for a parlay I would consider using him just like Pierce, as a small bump up in value with limited risk.
Norman Parke $1.54 vs
I took a quick look around the web and I see that most people are on the TUF Smashes winner, which is totally understandable as I think this is going to be a close fight. Overall I think that Tokudome has a better tract record against better competition and he really impressed me in his debut with how he was able to control Marcello on the ground the way he did. I give an edge in the striking to Kazuki which means if the grappling is nullified then this is clearly his fight to win. If the grappling in the central aspect of this fight I think his judo and BJJ is superior to Parkes and should help him to get the better of the exchanges. I expect that this fight is going to be quite close and could even be a split, but if that is the case then I would rather be on the side of the much better paying underdog. These odds are a little off as far as I can see so a medium size single bet on Tokudome would make sense to me. I will also consider playing him as part of a parlay or two, but with a number of decent paying options on this card the key is to diversify to avoid firing your bet card into the garbage can after a key fight goes south.
Andrew Craig $1.77 vs
This fight will either be the end of Chris Leben in the UFC or with the change in camp, a slight improvement and return to relevancy. I need to see something from Leben before I back him again. In his original fight against Karlos Vemola I was picking Vemola, but then changed to Leben when Brunson stepped in. That was one terrible fight and Leben was a major reason it stunk so badly. Leben needs to brawl and if his opponent can resist the urge then that really takes away from what Chris can do. His striking is adequate, but if he is kept at range and forced to chase he is far less dangerous. Craig is a hungry fighter and knows what a win over Leben would do for his resume. If he can remain technical and use his toughness to help him survive early, he should be able to steal the fight late if it is at all close. Craig could be the perfect type of fighter for Leben to knockout as he isn’t all that fast, but honestly I just can’t back the crippler until he shows me something and he really hasn’t done much in a number of fights. I will make an average sized bet on Craig and work him into my parlays, again with caution for the same reasons I listed in the previous breakdown.
Tim Boetsch $1.95 vs
This is going to be an interesting fight. I was a big fan of Boetsch moving down to 185 and he has done well and probably could have won the Costa fight had he not had some tremendously bad luck. The layoff is a huge concern for Munoz, as is questions about his physical health. It is remarkable how much weight he has lost getting back into shape, search for the pics if you haven’t seen them, but with so much focus on that over the last year it could impact his in cage performance. The guys that have given Boetsh the most trouble are guys that can wrestle- Hamill, Brilz, Okami, Davis, and Matyushenko. Almost all of that has taken place at 205, with the exception of Okami, and Munoz will be the first NCAA D-1 wrestler that Boetsch has faced at 185. Did the drop in weight given Boetsch enough of a physical edge to deal with wrestlers? I guess we will see. For Munoz the last two fighters to beat him were guys that were able to either shut down his wrestling- Okami or completely outwrestle him- Weidman. The difference is that Munoz has beaten a number of very good grappler/ wrestlers- Maia, Dollaway, Simpson, Jensen, Catone and Mike Pierce. I would be much more confident in this pick if Munoz was coming off normal break between fights, but he isn’t. I still think the in edge that I give Mark will be enough to overcome Boetsch. I expect to see Munoz using his wrestling to put Timmy on his back and drop those big hammerfist. He might not stop Boetsch, but I think he gets the better on the scorecards. I think a medium sized bet on Munoz makes sense, again don’t be afraid to mix him into your parlays, but nothing to extensive.
**** Munoz jump into the #5 spot on the list after seeing the weigh-ins. I am much more confident in this pick then before. Munoz looked great yesterday and Boetsch looked like a strong gust of wind would have knocked him over. Munoz is a solid play!
Roger Gracie $2.24 vs
Will Tim Kennedy ever shut up? Everyone has an opinion, but how about keeping your mouth shut about fighter pay until you have at least fought once for the UFC, then bitch all you want. I would like to see these guys get paid more too, but at this point there is a long list of guys that I would rather hear talking about this issue instead of Mr. Strikeforce runner-up. I actually predicted Kennedy to drop his final Strikeforce bout against Trevor Smith feeling that Smith’s grappling was probably the strongest that Tim-Tim had faced in recent memory and could give him trouble. Well looking back at that fight Smith had some success dragging TK to the ground and working his grappling. Unfortunately, Smitty got tired and Kennedy pulled away from him and eventually slammed the door shut on my upset bid. What I took from that was that Kennedy can be taken down and in most situations, Roger Gracie will only need to do it once to finish this bout. Gracie’s overall lack of athleticism makes me a little concerned as to how he gets this fight to the ground, but I still think he will. Don’t expect anything too pretty. Most likely a clinch/trip combo or something to that nature from in close. Could Kennedy score the knockout? Yup, it is a possibility. But, what I am counting on is that his brash over-confidence that lead him to postulate about his status in the MW rankings as just below Anderson Silva despite having faced next to no top level competition while in Strikeforce (prior the Rockhold fight and we all know how that went for Timmy) will result in him attempting to grapple with Roger. Nothing against the military, but Captain American comes off very braggadocious with regard to his skills and capabilities and I think this could lead him to overestimate what he is capable of. I’ve got Gracie ranked #2 on my value list and I think he should be one of your biggest plays of the day. I will also be using Gracie in a parlay and with the betting odds on the main card looking so good I will seriously consider a 5 fight main card parlay as investible option. Dennis Siver $3.01 vs
Oh boy am I looking forward to this fight. I was quite shocked to see how big a favourite that Cub Swanson is. He is a talented fighter with a tonne of experience and a great camp. But he leaves so many mistakes and openings in his game, most self created that I think Siver is going to eat him up. Swanson even talked about it in the countdown how he is able to spar with pro boxer and avoid their punches with next to no effort. He leaves his hands down, he moves forward with little concern for his opponent’s skill, and when he does attack he doesn’t do a great job of maintaining a solid defensive front. Siver on the other hand does everything by the book. Hands up, chin down, light on is feet, uses movement and rarely drops those defenses. Additionally, the manner in which Cub hangs his hands will work against most fighters, but with Siver he has almost no delivery to his punches and kicks making it hard for his opponents to pick up on them and react. If Cub isn’t already sitting in a defensive position, he is going to eat some leather and feet for that matter. I also like the way Siver counters to play a role. As Cub moves forward look for the German to back up land shots while sliding out of range. I keep adding on to this, probably why Siver (like James Krause) is a heavy dog but I have him in my top 5 confidence list, I also think that Siver’s use of kicks will play a big role simply because Cub likes to rely heavily on his boxing. If Swanson can’t match Siver’s output then he better knock him out. That is a possibility, Guillard smoked Dennis and so did Cerrone prior to the sub, but those are both LWs. We have yet to see this happen at 145. Not saying it can’t happen, but it hasn’t yet. I will be making my biggest single bet of the night on Siver along with working him into a couple of parlays with the likes of Gracie, Tukodome, Munoz, and Weidman.
Frankie Edgar $1.23 vs
I really like Charles Oliveira. I liked him at LW and was super excited to see him cut to FW as I felt he has a lot of potential. Overall my prediction record is 3-3 in fights involving Do Bronx (4-1-1 with Edgar), with the common theme being that I have never picked against him. Until now. Edgar is a bad matchup for almost anyone in the division. He pushed Aldo to the limit and had he got things going a little sooner he could have been the new FW champ. Frankie is known as a bit of a slow starter and considering this will be his first 3 round fight in 3 years, he needs to bring it early because those crucial late rounds won’t be there if he is down early. This fight is a match-up of Frankie’s boxing and wrestling against Oliveira’s Muay Thai and BJJ. Of those 4 elements I think that BJJ is the most crucial to Oliveira’s success. Frankie can win fights with just his boxing if his wrestling is eliminated from the equation. For Charles, he is a underrated striker, but I still think his BJJ being a part of his attack is vital to his success. If Frankie can shut down his BJJ with his wrestling he should be able to out work him on the feet. The combination of the Frankie’s high work rate and how difficult he is to hit will make him the clear cut winner with the judges. The durability of Oliveira is a big question mark for me and while most are taking FE by decision I think that he could put enough damage on Charles to make him quit. He shut it down against both Cerrone and Swanson after taking minimal damage and while I won’t be running to put a bet on the under I think the TKO win is within reach. I think Frankie is a solid bet to win, but considering he only offers in the low $1.20 range and even lower on some sites he might be worth including on a parlay, but leaving him off as he goes lower and lower wouldn’t be the end of the world either.
Anderson Silva $1.39 vs
Has the time finally come for the King to be killed…..er defeated? Well we will see, but I believe this is to be the time for a new champ to take the lead. Unfortunately, I have picked against Anderson before with Sonnen x2 and Okami feeling that they could use their wrestling to score the win. Weidman’s combination of wrestling and submission skills make him a major threat. Sonnen had a tonne of success in the first 6 rounds he fought against Silva scoring takedowns. The difference between him and Weidman is the damage that the undefeated challenger can generate from his guard. He has submission skills which are a major concern, but more importantly if he can spend as much time on top of Silva as Chael did and generate the type of damage that he is capable I think he will be able to break Silva down. Additionally, Sonnen got stuck in Anderson’s guard for most of the fight, but Weidman is really effective at landing or immediately transitioning to side control off of his takedowns which will put Silva in immediate danger. I have talked about why I think Weidman wins this fight both here and in my main prediction, so I’m done with that now. Anderson is the best of all time, what he does inside the cage is unreal, but he is human and he will eventually succumb to his age and the rise of new challengers. BJ Penn lost, Chuck Liddell lost, Tito Ortiz, GSP will eventually and so will Jon Jones. My play here is an average sized bet on Weidman. Silva is still Silva which makes me a little hesitant to pull the trigger on a big bet, but he still pays well even on something mid-ranged. I will also be playing a couple of small parlays for sure with Weidman doubled up with Siver, Munoz, and Gracie.
Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)
2. Edson Barboza $1.20
3. Frankie Edgar $1.23
4. Seth Baczynski $1.37
5. Dennis Siver $3.01
6. Gabriel Gonzaga $1.42
7. Andrew Craig $1.77
8. Roger Gracie $2.24
10. Kazuki Tokudome $2.69
Kamikaze Overdrive Fighter Prediction Records
Best Prediction Record: Seth Baczynski (5-0-0)
Worst Prediction Record: Chris Leben (0-4-0)
Best Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights): David Mitchell vs. Mike Pierce- 7-2-0 78%
Worst Combined Prediction Record (at least 5 fights): Andrew Craig vs. Chris Leben- 1-5-0 17%
185lbs- Anderson Silva (2-3-0) vs. Chris Weidman (3-2-0)
145lbs- Frankie Edgar (4-1-1) vs. Charles Oliveira (3-3-0)
185lbs- Roger Gracie (2-2-0) vs. Tim Kennedy (3-1-0)
145lbs- Dennis Siver (5-1-0) vs. Cub Swanson (2-3-0)
185lbs- Tim Boetsch (4-2-0) vs. Mark Munoz (4-2-0) 67%
185lbs- Andrew Craig (1-1-0) vs. Chris Leben (0-4-0)
155lbs- Norman Parke (0-1-0) vs. Kazuki Tokudome (1-0-0)
155lbs- Edson Barboza (3-2-0) vs. Rafaello Oliveira (2-0-0)
265lbs- Gabriel Gonzaga (3-1-0) vs. Dave Herman (1-3-0)
170lbs- Seth Baczynski (5-0-0) vs. Brian Melancon (0-0-0)
170lbs- David Mitchell (1-1-0) vs. Mike Pierce (6-1-0)
Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||Dennis Siver||$3.01||I love this play, Siver seems much more focussed on his defense then Cub and I think that shows up huge here.|
|2.||Roger Gracie||$2.24||Gracie is the superior grappler and everyone but Tim Kennedy probably realizes that, pride before the fall.|
|3.||$3.26||The next Middleweight champion? Maybe. He still has to beat the greatest of all time. If he wasn’t coming off such a layoff he would probably be higher on this list.|
|4.||Kazuki Tokudome||$2.69||No sold on Parke until I see him succeed outside of the TUF level competition. Yes, Kazuki debuted with a win against a former TUF competitor but he has faced better comp throughout his career and it shows up.|
|5.||$1.80||After seeing the weigh-ins and how good Munoz looked and how drained Boetsch looked Munoz took over the #5 spot from Craig.|
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||$2.90||Herman is the only guy I see on the card with any betting potential that I didn’t already pick. If he is focussed and can work his wrestling to keep this fight vertical he has the skills to KO Gabe. Watch for Herman’s knees when Gabe is shooting for a TD.|
The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
Mike Pierce/ David Mitchell Total Rounds Over 2.5- Both guys have finishing capabilities, but have also combined for 18 career decisions. All 3 of Mitchell’s UFC bouts have gone the full 15 and 8 of Pierce’s 11 have done the same. Play the Over.
Edson Barboza/ Rafaello Oliveira Total Rounds Under 2.5- 10 of Barboza’s 11 fights have ended inside the distance including 4 of his 6 UFC bouts. Oliveira has 8 finishes in his career, but has also been stopped 4 times before the bell. Barboza works him on the feet, so play the Under.
Gabrielle Gonzaga/ Dave Herman Total Rounds Under 1.5- HWs, blah blah blah short fights. Gonzaga has submission skills to finish and a questionable chin if Herman checks it. In 47 combined fights they have each gone to decision once, and both lost. Play the Under.
Norman Parke/ Kazuki Tokudome Total Rounds Over 2.5- I see this fight being a grinding ground based battle with few opportunities to finish, very similar to both of their respective debuts. Play the Over.
Dennis Siver to Win by Decision $4.20- Siver has won 4 of his last 5 fights by decision and while he is capable of putting the stamp on his opponent Cub is a tough guy to put away.
Roger Gracie to Win by Submission $4.35- Hard to pass these odds up considering what Gracie is capable of on the mat. Gracie has won all of his wins by submission minus one, the odds on this one are in your favour.