UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson Results, Review, & Bet Pack
UFC 161 was the companies second foray into of Canada and for the second time a series of injures badly hampered the cards overall appearances. At the end of the night the in cage action proved moderately entertaining, with some questionable or at least close decision in a couple of fights. Additionally, there were a few interesting upsets and Kamikaze Overdrive ended the night with a respectable 7-4 record predicting 3 dogs to emerge victorious. Let’s take a look at the fights.
135lbs- Yves Jabouin def. Dustin Pague by Split Decision
I thought this fight was headed in the direction of Pague with him getting the better of Yves. Jabouin had his moments, but he appeared to be on the defensive side of the most significant exchanges.
170lbs – Mitch Clarke def. John Maguire by Decision
Maguire seems reluctant to push the pace and Clarke took advantage by outpointing him on route to the win. Maguire could have had more success with a few more takedowns, but elected not to attempt them. Most likely the Brit will follow his fellow countrymen like Sass, Mills, and Etim right out of the company.
135lbs– Roland Delorme def. Edwin Figueroa by Decision
Delorme got the better of the grappling exchanges, but was clearing running on empty at the end. Figueroa did a good job doing damage when he had the opportunity, but he ran out of time. On the positive side, Figueroa probably saved his spot for one more fight with his over the top effort.
170lbs– Sean Pierson def. Kenny Robertson by Decision
I felt Robertson had done enough to take this fight. The striking exchanges were close in round 2 and the American spent the final minute of the round 2 in top position which should have decided it. Unfortunately, the judges didn’t agree and Robertson couldn’t get the job done in the final round. The fight did play out as I predicted with Pierson fading late and nearly getting stopped, which I guess is a moral victory.
155lbs– James Krause def. Sam Stout by Submission
Easily one of the most entertaining bouts on the card and one of my 3 big upsets. I actually ranked Krause as my #5 confidence pick which is huge for a dog and even bigger when they pay over $3.00. He was my #1 Value play which makes sense and he came through. Additionally, I also had this fight to go over 2.5 rounds which hit too. Tough luck for Sammy Stout as this defeat knocks him significantly down the ladder at 155.
170lbs– Jake Shields def. Tyron Woodley by Split Decision
This fight played out pretty close to how I had expected it to and although I picked the correct winner, it wasn’t an enjoyable fight. Many were jumping on the Woodley bandwagon after his debut, but that was such a small sample size compared to the rest of his career I wasn’t ready to join them. Neither fighter did themselves any favours here, but at least Jake got the ‘W’.
265lbs- Shawn Jordan def. Pat Barry by TKO
Barry showed that under pressure he will fold quicker then a cheap tent in a wind storm. At the same time Jordan hits hard and jumped when he saw his opportunity. Barry might stay, but his slug it out style could save him. Jordan is now 3-1 in the UFC is a decent mid-level 265er.
135lbs– Alexis Davis def. Rosi Sexton by Decision
I will admit that this fight took place during the Bruins/Blackhawks overtime so I only saw bits and pieces. Davis still needs work before she will fight for the title and Rosi made a name for herself as one tough fighter. I look forward to seeing both back in the cage.
205lbs– Ryan Jimmo def. Igor Pokrajac by Decision
I missed most of this fight as well, but Jimmo got the ‘W’ and a fight with Thiago Silva would be a welcome opportunity for the Canadian. For Igor that’s another tough defeat and could spell the end of his UFC career, but at the same time they may keep him around for one more shot.
265lbs- Stipe Miocic def. Roy Nelson by Decision
This fight played out perfectly with Miocic outworking Nelson and avoiding the big power of Big Country. That first career defeat can work wonders for a young fighter and Stipe appeared to benefit big time. Miocic should get a push up in competition and I have heard a fight with Bigfoot could be a possibility. For Nelson, if he resigns a fight with Shawn Jordan or Pat Barry if they elect to keep him would be fun.
205lbs- Rashad Evans def. Dan Henderson by Split Decision
I needed this fight to turn a good night into a great one. It was pretty close to what I expected, but in the end Hendo just didn’t do enough. He appeared tired and unable to put together any form of a prolonged attack. He did hurt Evans and was probably one more big punch away from stealing either rounds 2 or 3, but it never came together. Evans didn’t really impress in the win, but still came out on top. I would expect Evans versus Teixeira could be in the works while Henderson vs Shogun 2 or maybe Little Nog could be entertaining.
This was a tough event to predict as can be seen in the low KOPT II scores, but with this many dogs on what do you expect. We get a little bit of a break before the next event which is UFC 162 featuring Anderson Silva defending his title against Chris Weidman. I am really looking forward to that fight and a couple other bouts on that card. Will the Champ hold onto his crown or will his title rein finally come tumbling down. Oh yeah and the bet packs were pretty good as well, but that has been par for the courses for the last few months. Check them out below.
*I have started to use some Props in my parlays, if your book doesn’t offer the prop or won’t allow them to be used in a parlay- use a pick from my confidence list.
Parlay Doubles=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Roland Delorme $1.65 Selection 2: =================================================== Price: $3.89 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: James Krause $3.16 Selection 2: =================================================== Price: $6.73 =================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Pat Barry $1.80 Selection 2: =================================================== Price: $5.69 =================================================== Parlay #4 =================================================== Selection 1: James Krause $3.16 Selection 2: Roland Delorme $1.65 =================================================== Price: $5.21 =================================================== Parlay #5 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: =================================================== Price: $5.03 =================================================== Parlay #6 =================================================== Selection 1: Pat Barry $1.80 Selection 2: Roland Delorme $1.65 =================================================== Price: $2.97
Parlay Triples=================================================== Parlay #7 =================================================== Selection 1: James Krause $3.16 Selection 2: Selection 3: Roland Delorme $1.65 =================================================== Price: $7.51
==================================================Parlay #8 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Pat Barry $1.80 Selection 3: Yves Jabouin $1.33 =================================================== Price: $5.10 Parlay #9 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: Selection 3: =================================================== Price: $10.72 Parlay #10 =================================================== Selection 1: Selection 2: James Krause $3.16 Selection 3: Roland Delorme $1.65 =================================================== Price: $16.48
Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns
Yves Jabouin $1.33 vs
Jabouin is a solid veteran fighter and should have the advantage in every area of this fight as long as Pague isn’t able to get on top of him or take his back. I have never been a big fan of Pague on the show or in his UFC career. To me he doesn’t come off as that durable of a fighter and based on the damage that Yves put on Jeff Hougland, I could see Pague eventually succumbing. The reach is an issues, but Yves did a pretty good job dealing with the longer reach of Pablo Garza. Yves doesn’t offer a whole lot as far as a betting fav which should be expected. I would think he is worth inclusion on your parlay bets despite his low price as he should win this fight 9 times out of 10.
Mitch Clarke $3.02 vs
Clarke hasn’t shown he is a UFC level fighter so far and unless he has made significant strides in his lengthy downtime I just don’t foresee him winning this fight. Maguire’s grappling is pretty solid and has carried him to a couple of UFC victories. His size was his undoing at 170, but if the weight cut goes well to 155 that should no longer be an issue. Clarke has already lost a couple of grappling based fights and Maguire should be able to replicate the success of his past opponents. For betting purposes Maguire has slightly better value then Jabouin at $1.40 but I would still recommend the same course of action. Work him in conjunction with a couple of the other plays on a parlay, but don’t forget to diversify, don’t go all in on just one fighter.
Roland Delorme $1.65 vs
I’ve heard Figueroa described on another site as a more powerful, but less capable on the ground Leonard Garcia. I tend to agree. He throws hard but his technique is lackluster and it gets worse as the fight goes. On the mat he struggles and his TDD is for lack of a better word ‘horra-awful’ (to clarify that’s horrible and awful combined together). Delorme is tough and scrappy and despite getting KOed in his last fight it took everything Rivera could throw at him to put him away. If and when Roland gets this fight to the ground he’ll be in control and could get the submission. But, if he doesn’t get the takedown or at least doesn’t get a lot of them I still think he will be able to outwork Figueroa on the feet with quick and straight combinations against a much wilder opponent. I think Delorme is getting undervalued here and as a result he is one of my favourite plays on this card. He has some decent value in the $1.60 range and I would recommend a mid range single bet along with working him into your parlays. For Figs, its a pass!
Sean Pierson $1.61 vs
In my opinion Pierson has been winning on borrowed time. The lower the weight class the quicker age becomes a factor. There are exceptions, but for the most part in the lower weight classes speed and timing are so essential and that is what goes first as athletes get older. Pierson is a tough guy and he fights with heart but I just don’t think that will be enough here. As I mentioned in the breakdown he traditionally gets off to a strong start and then fades, but the layoff/age/ring rust combo could prevent him from getting things going early and he could be too far behind late. Robertson struggled against two very good wrestlers in Simpson and Pierce and for the most part that was enough to write him off. I think he is better then most give him credit for and should have the tools to pull this one out. I talked about the Brazilian factor for the Damm/ Hirota fight (which held true) and if this bout goes to a decision it could work for Pierson at home in Canada. From my past experiences I don’t think fighting in Canada has produced the type of results for their fighters as it has for the Brazilians, but I would be lying if I didn’t at least consider it with this fight. In the end I would advocate for a decent sized bet on Robertson. I hit on him as the dog in his last fight and I think these odds are in place because people don’t recognize his name and combined that with the success that Pierson has had inside the Octagon he gets the nod as the betting fav. Inclusion on a parlay or two would work as well, maybe a nice Robertson/ Delorme parlay as well.
James Krause $3.16 vs
2 things- I took Fodor over Stout and thought that Caros had done enough to win the fight and secondly this is one of those predictions that I started favouring Stout and switched to Krause before I was done prepping. Stout has barely squeaked by in his last handful of fights and while that maybe the case again against Krause, I think the former WECer has just enough going for him to turn the fight in his favour. Krause hasn’t been fighting at the same level as Sammy, but he has looked very solid of late so much so that I can overlooked the late notice situation. I think Krause’s reach, slightly more diversified striking, and ground capabilities will be the deciding factors. Stout isn’t going to be able to fall back on his newly incorporated wrestling like he did against Fodor and Fisher and the reach will make it tough for a guy who relies on high volume striking to reach his normal totals. I feel pretty good about this pick and while I haven’t made my value list yet Krause will be up there. I would recommend a decent sized single bet on the American as well as a parlay or two with him. Krause/Robertson and/ or Delorme would make for a solid pay day and should be worth a look. For Sammy, he needs to show me he can switch things up more when they aren’t working. He has added the wrestling, but as was the case against Makdessi when he couldn’t score a takedown he went back to the same striking attack that wasn’t working either. The lack of diversity or mid-fight adjustments cost him that bout and will here as well.
Jake Shields $2.65 vs
Woodley needs to do more then a quick knockout of Jay Hieron before I willing to forget some of his past performances. Yes he appears some decent tools on his belt, but other then the Hieron fight and a decent effort against Nate Marquardt, Woodley has be a chronic lay and prayer. That could be an issue against Jake Shields who is a bigger fighter and is pretty skilled on the mat as well. Unfortunately, Shields hasn’t be setting the world on fire either of late, in fact he hasn’t fought or fought well for that matter in quite some time. I did pick Shields to sneak one out here but considering his price and that fact that he didn’t crack my Top 5 value list should indicate my reservations about this fight. I would suggest playing a small single bet on Shields, but wait until gameday as I think his value could climb slightly. If Woodley can put together a solid performance here then I will start to believe in him as a heavy betting fav.
Ryan Jimmo $1.41 vs
I honestly don’t have a great feel as to how this fight is going to play out. Jimmo has had limited offensive UFC cage time to build an opinion on. He smashed Perosh and nearly finished Te Huna early and then after that spent the rest of the fight on his back fending off his opponent. I do think he has talent and should be able to win this fight, but I don’t feel that this prediction is based on as much footage/ information as I would like it to be. I have much more experience predicting Igor’s fights and frankly he hasn’t been fighting that well of late. Considering how badly Pokrajac has performed of late that is a little more encouraging when predicting against him, but that makes this a very one sided prediction. I have watched a lot of footage on Jimm0 pre-UFC, but still I don’t feel I have that great of an understanding of how this fight could play out. As a result I am going to limit my betting on this fight. I might use Jimmo in a parlay, but it will be minimal and there is a good chance I will be leaving him off all together. I would considered a small bet on Pokrajac based solely on his value, but that is only if there is room in the bankroll.
Pat Barry $1.80 vs
Barry is the better striker in the majority of his fights, but the question is can he remain vertical long enough to capitalize. Jordan isn’t a top level wrestlers, but he can grapple, he can submit guys, and he is very athletic/ quick. If Jordan can close the distance and control HD he could grind out a win or set up a submission. The key for Barry will be to move, hammer Jordan’s legs with big kicks, and unload with horsepower every time he gets the opportunity. Every time Jordan closes in, pummel under and spin out to get some separation. Then don’t hesitate when he is free to do damage. I like a single bet on Barry here because I think he is only going to need one big shot to take complete control of this fight. Jordan doesn’t move his head well and considering he is the same size as HD will put him in the danger zone every time he tries to close the distance. I think a mid to upper sized straight bet on Barry makes sense along with working him into your parlays. His number is fluctuating from one site to the next so if you have he option shop around to get the best value.
Alexis Davis $1.27 vs
I am very interested in watching this fight as I think that Davis is a future title contender, but my betting interest is only so-so. Davis pays very little, I think the lowest of all 11 of my fighters on this card. I do think she wins this one hands down. Sexton is undersized and talent-wise she is overmatched. Her biggest problem is that her strength, the ground game, is also the strength of Davis. I do have Davis ranked as my top confidence pick as I just don’t see, short of getting caught is a miracle submission situation, her dropping this fight. While playing Davis straight up doesn’t offer a lot as far as payout is concerned, you could still use her on your parlay for a few added dollars. My big play for this fight will be a prop bet, maybe a couple of them- check the prop section for more info.
Roy Nelson $1.41 vs
Well well well…here we go again Mr. Big Country looking to make it 4 in a row with another big time knockout. I have had a great read on Nelson since I started KO Prediction with a 6-1 prediction record. My only blemish was the knockout loss suffered by Dave Herman. I felt Herman could use range and better cardio to outwork and evade Nelson on route to a decision win- WRONG! Enter Stipe Miocic. He has good boxing, solid leg kicks, and wrestling as well. Additionally, as in the case in most Roy Nelson fights, Nelson is facing some significant physical disparities. The height and reach of Stipe should ( I say should because it SHOULD have worked for Mitrione and Herman too) help him to avoid the big shots of Nelson. Roy uses a very simple approach- you hit me, I’ll hit you, and we will see who is still standing when it is all said and done. It has had mixed results throughout his career if you compare his fights with Werdum, JDS, and Mir with his 3 recent wins. Roy has a great chin and when he can put you away he looks like a destroyer. Unfortunately, as the length of a fight draws out, his opponent will outland him, and his cardio will falter making him look second best to the judges. I think that Stipe comes back strong from his last defeat, works the kicks, uses movement, and maintains a technically sounds striking defense that will make it hard for Nelson to do what he does. I ranked Stipe low (#5) on my Value list just because Nelson has been so successful in similar situations, but I still think he is worth a mid-range single bet. I will also consider including him on a parlay with a couple of other decent paying dogs for a big possible payout. There is also a prop I am looking at for this fight.
Rashad Evans $1.80 vs
Evans has all the tools to win this fight if he executes and based on his last performance that is a big IF. I’ll give him a pass on the Jones fight, although considering how long he had to wait to get another shot at the title, he really didn’t leave it all in the cage. At least as far as I could see. If Evans uses his speed and movement he should be able to land on Henderson while avoiding taking too much damage. This is a style that Rashad had used as a Greg Jackson fighter, but not so much since leaving that camp. Now he stand closer to his opponent looking to attack from close range and this is going to cost him against Dan Henderson. Henderson struggled with the distance management of Machida, but he should find much more success against Evans. I expect that his pressure is going to win him some key points with the judges and as long as his wrestling holds up it should prevent Evans from getting key takedowns that he usually uses to steal or control rounds when things aren’t going well on the feet. A lot of people are on Henderson by knockout which could happen, but I think that Rashad will do enough to avoid going night night. I think Henderson is good for a big single bet as well as inclusion on your parlays. I also have a few Prop bet ideas that you can see below.
Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)
1. Alexis Davis $1.27
2. Yves Jabouin $1.33
4. Roland Delorme $1.65
5. James Krause $3.16
8. Pat Barry $1.80
9. Ryan Jimmo $1.41
11. Jake Shields $2.65
Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||James Krause||$3.16||I do not believe that I have ever ranked this big of a dog this high on the Confidence list (#5). Partially it could be the high number of underdogs on this card- 5 + a near pick’em, but I do really like Krause here and I think Stout’s value is a product of his name combined with Krause being such an unknown.|
|2.||$2.13||Depending on your site this fight could be closer or almost even. Rashad didn’t impress in his last fight and it looked as if he was afraid to engage. If he was concerned with the power of Nog then Henderson should have a similar effect and once again cost Suga the fight.|
|3.||$2.36||Robertson is a lesser known guy with some decent skills. He’ll never make a run at the title but he has the ability to take out an aging, ring rusty, veteran like Pierson.|
|4.||Pat Barry||$1.80||This fight comes down to the improving TDD of Barry. At the same time backing picks based almost entirely on TDD can be an exhausting and confidence rattling enterprise. Barry does enough while vertical to put Jordan to sleep.|
|5.||$3.16||Stipe gets spot #5 over Jake Shields because Shields has been out for a while and over Roland Delorme because his price is dropping as we speak. Miocic needs to fight a smart fight early and as the cardio of Nelsons begins to give out his ability to land that hammer of an O.H.R will decrease. The Price is Right.|
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
|1.||$3.16||I did take Jimmo but I think these odds are a little off. Pokrajac has some value despite his recent struggles and had he had a better showing against Beltran these odds would be much closer.|
|2.||No Play||Having taken so many other underdogs and with only 11 other fights on the card there isn’t much else that I like as far as guys I picked against.|
The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.
James Krause/ Krause does have knockout power and so does Sammy, despite just a single UFC KO, but I don’t see this fight ending early. Both guys are tough to finish on the feet and the combination of Stouts TDD and lack of an offensive submission game should prevent a finish on the mat as well. Play the Over.
Alexis Davis to Win by Submission– The more and more I think about this fight I expect it to end by tapout. I have seen a couple of different instances in fights where Sexton has been caught in some close call submissions by her opponents. Davis is the finishing type and she will capitalize on opportunities when presented.
Dan Henderson to Win by Decision- Everyone is in love with Dan’s power and it is impressive, but I see this fight playing out similar to the Machida/Henderson bout with Dan doing just a bit more and Evans doing just a bit less. This leads me to belive that Dan wins by decision and that pays pretty well on most site.