UFC 160: Velasquez vs Bigfoot II Results, Review, & Bet Pack

Scott Johnson

UFC 160 was one of the most loaded PPVs in recent memory and with just minimal exceptions, it delivered in full force from top to bottom. I’ll give you my fight by fight breakdowns, along with a quick recap for the Kamikaze Overdrive Prediction Tournament’s opening event and as always I’ll take a look at my own prediction and how the bet packs faired! Let’s get to it.

Jeremy Stephens def. Estevan Payan by Decision

-Stephens could have taken two different approaches here- throwing big bombs or a more diverse combination of striking and grappling. He took the latter and got the job done.

George Roop def. Brian Bowles by TKO

-Roop survived some tough spots early and rallied to but the former WEC champ away. A lot of people are writing Bowles off here, but with the 18 month layoff I want to see him back in the cage one more time before I start talking about what could have been . Roop on the other hand picked up an impressive win and should get another test in his next fight. George Roop vs Yuri Alcantara please.

Stephen Thompson def. Nah-Shon Burrell by Decision

-Probably the poorest fight on the entire card. Thompson showed that he is trying to add a grappling element to his game and Burrell wasn’t able to do much about it to turn the fight in his direction.

Khabib Nurmagomedov def. Abel Trujillo by Decision

-Nurmagomedov didn’t make weight which taints this win a bit, but his in cage performance was pretty dominant. Trujillo is a lower level guy who will probably get a spot on a prelim next time out. Nurmagomedov next opponent should be another fighter on the rise, Rafael dos Anjos, with the winner getting a push into the elite level of the division.

Robert Whittaker def. Colton Smith by TKO

-Whittaker looked good in avoiding the takedowns and then making the most out of his opportunities on the feet. Both guys are still pretty green, but Whittaker probably has the higher ceiling.

Dennis Bermudez def. Max Holloway by Split Dec.

-I left my TV to head to the place where I was watching the PPV before the decision was read for this fight. When I arrived I was shocked to hear the verdict. Bermudez came on late, but I felt Holloway carried the action late into round 2 and should have got the win. Both guys are talented and should get pushed up the ladder in the division.

Mike Pyle def. Rick Story by Split Dec.

-This fight was one of the two most important bouts for my own personal success on the card and it looked great early for Story, but Pyle persevered and got the nod with a gutsy effort. Pyle deserves a step up and a bout with Dong Hyun Kim would make sense for me.

Donald Cerrone def. KJ Noons by Dec.

-Cerrone came back strong as he has every time he suffers a defeat and took it to KJ. Cerrone vs Josh Thomson is being discussed and I think that would be the perfect bout to elevate the winner to a potential title shot. For Noons I would like to see him stick around for another bout. Off the top of my head I can’t recall if Ryan Couture was cut, but if not then set that rematch up.

TJ Grant def. Gray Maynard by TKO

-TJ Grant had a chance to earn a title shot and did it in convincing fashion. Grant vs Henderson should be next and TJ has to be the best example of a fighter rising from a mediocre fighter in one division to an elite level competitor in another. For Maynard there is talk of retirement, I hope not and think that he could be right back in the title conversation with a pair of wins.

Glover Teixeira def. James Te Huna by Submission

-Glover is building a nice resume to start his UFC career and Te Huna was the biggest challenge he has faced to date and he walked through him with ease. Glover still needs another win before a title shot and with a couple of high profile LHW fights on the horizon he should be looking at one of the winners. For Te Huna, he is still a talented and entertaining fighter that people want to see in action. James Te Huna vs Ovince St. Preux would be a decent scrap.

Junior Dos Santos def. Mark Hunt by KO

-A great finish by JDS, I was banking on the decision win which was less than a minute away but wasn’t to be. JDS will most likely get a title shot next, although I would like to see Cain face someone else beforehand if possible. Hunt will stick around, but most likely never be in the title conversation again. If Roy Nelson isn’t getting a title shot anytime soon and beats Miocic, Hunt vs Nelson would be outrageous fun.

Cain Velasquez def Antonio Silva by TKO

-What a great 1-2 by the champ, looked awesome. Cain vs JDS 3 will happen again, but I would rather see Cain vs Fabricio Werdum next if he gets by Big Nog with limited damage. Silva is still a valuable member of the division and a fight with Stefan Struve could be a good next move.

KOPT II

-I had promised to post the first round fighter predictions so people could follow a long, but the combination of having to chase down 2 last second replacements for MIA predictors and some computer problems prevented me from doing so. I hope to have it fixed for next time. The tournament is off to a good start with some close match-ups and everyone still alive heading into the second and final event of the opening round. The scores can been see on the KOPT II page.

Predictions

-I started off poorly with two missed upsets and a big underdog going the wrong way. I eventually turned it around winning all 5 main card fights and 6 of the last 7 with Rick Story costing me a big night overall.

UFC 160 Bet Pack

-The missed upsets early didn’t help things, but I still picked up a decent number of wins including 4 of 5 on the Confidence list, my #1 value bet (TJ Grant) and I continued my prop betting hot streak with 6 wins. I also listed #2 George Roop and #3 Robert Whittaker on my Non-predicted winners list feeling they were both worth a look based on their value.

Final Thoughts…

-I enjoyed the night from a fan’s perspective and was only one key win away from having a successful betting night. For the KOPT II I will make sure that all the picks are posted in good time prior to the UFC on Fuel TV 10 event which will decide who advances to the round of 16 and who goes home early. Good Luck to all involved and thanks for reading.

 


UFC 160

*I have started to use some Props in my parlays, if your book doesn’t offer the prop or won’t allow them to be used in a parlay- use a pick from my confidence list.

Parlay Doubles

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Estevan Payan $2.92
Selection 2:
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Price: $5.08
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Nah-Shon Burrell $2.40
Selection 2: Colton Smith $1.47
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Price: $3.53
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: T.J. Grant $2.80
Selection 2:
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Price: $4.87
 
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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Dennis Bermudez $1.40
Selection 2: Estevan Payan $2.92
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Price: $4.09

Parlay Triples

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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Dennis Bermudez $1.40
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Khabib Nurmagomedov $1.38
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Price: $3.36

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Parlay #6
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Selection 1: T.J. Grant $2.80
Selection 2: Colton Smith $1.47
Selection 3: Donald Cerrone $1.36
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Price: $5.60

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Jeremy Stephens $1.40 vs Estevan Payan $2.92

Honestly speaking I think this is a bad career move for Stephens, but in all reality 155 wasn’t going that well for him either. He is way to focussed on knocking guys out and it shows. He swings wildly and aggressively and while that may work in some instances, eventually guys are going to figure you out and be able to avoid your big haymakers. If Stephens fights smart and mixes in his takedowns he has a much better chance in this fight, but then the problem of the weight cut comes into effect. It is hard to judge these things, but Stephen isn’t a little guy and to me he seems like the type that will try to cut as much water weight to get down to 145 as possible instead of doing it the right way. What that usually leads to is severe drop off in performance after the action starts to pick up. For Payan he isn’t well known which I attribute to his status as the dog. He has a lot of momentum on his side which is important and his experience both in Bellator and Strikeforce should help him to prepare for this bout. If he can avoid the early push and the big swings of Stephens this fight is his for the taking. There are a few unknowns here as far as the weight cuts for both men and the debut factor, along with Payan fighting an higher caliber opponent then he has faced in the past which makes me a little hesitant to pull the trigger on a big bet here. I would think a mid-range straight bet on Payan makes sense and then consider using him on a parlay or two to boost the payout, but again tread carefully make sure you have lots of options without him.

Brian Bowles $1.36 vs

I crapped all over Roop heading into his return to 135. He looked so bad both with his performance and physically against Eddie Wineland the first time he cut to 135 that I wrongly assumed that an older version of him would look just as bad or even worse. Unfortunately his opponent wasn’t able to do enough to push Roop and Georgie boy put together a pretty solid effort and did just enough to get the win. Roop doesn’t get enough respect for what he is capable of. He has fought some of the best in business and although his record is fairly poor, he is a great measuring stick. Bowles on the other hand is a former champion, but he has been out of action since he kicked Teila Tuli’s teeth into the stands back at UFC 1. Bowles has been gone for a long time dealing with injuries and such and he is 33 years old, which isn’t young especially when fighting in the lower weight classes where age seems to catch up with guys quicker based on their need for speed. If he regains his past form he should have no problem dispatching Roop. Considering the only two men to beat him are champion level guys- Cruz and Faber, I don’t see Roop having much to offer if Bowles is good to go. If Bowles has ring rust or the injuries have taken too much away from him he is ripe for the pickings. Betting on this fight might not be that great of a proposition with Bowles paying in the mid $1.30s. If he can get up over $1.40-$1.45 then he is a little more interesting to me. With the defensive issues that Roop seems to have as far backing straight up and raising his chin he could be ripe for the knockout and Bowles is capable of doing that and he is also a submission threat. I will most likely use Bowles in a parlay or 2, but my bigger lean here is the total rounds under 2.5 which will be posted in the props section.

Nah-Shon Burrell $2.40 vs

This pick comes down to me just not buying into the hype of Thompson. I didn’t when he fought Brown and took a lot of flack for picking Matt and that worked out pretty well. Thompson has skill and there is no denying that and the year long layoff could have helped him to round out his game but working in the gym and actually fighting are two entirely different things. Until I see more then just striking from Thompson I won’t be backing him as a favourite. When Burrell stepped up and took this fight the first thing that popped into my head was his knockout loss (I picked him) against Chris Spang. Burrell isn’t a top level wrestler but he should be able to do enough to take Stephens off his game and learn from the Spang fight. The MMA world blew up when Thompson headkicked his way to a debut win, but if we revisit that fight his opponent was asking for it. He wasn’t a striker, which gave ‘Wonderboy’ a clear advantage to start with and then this guy stood at kicking distance. All he didn’t do was point at his head and say kick me here please. Burrell is a much more well rounded fighter and I think his aggressive boxing is going to get inside of Thompson’s kicking range and create a lot of problems for him. For betting purposes I would advocate a mid range single bet on Burrell and then maybe doubling him up with Payan or a few lower paying fighters. For Thompson I want to see more out of him before I start investing money in him as a fav.

Khabib Nurmagomedov $1.38 vs

I am slowly bec0ming a Nurmagomedov fan. His style is so different then that of most of the other fighters in the UFC that it was really hard to not be turned off by it. At first I felt the way he fought left a tonne of openings that could easily be exploited and that is still partially the case, but there appears to be a significant advantage here as well. He fight so unorthodoxly that many guys don’t know how to deal with it. Additionally, the pace and pressure he fights with (Tibau fight is a good example) makes it even more difficult for his opposition. Trujillo looked good in his debut, but we shouldn’t make too much out of it because his opponent was that strong and did get submitted by Cody McKenzie. I’m just saying. I expect that Khabib is going to get the better of this fight in most scenario, especially on the ground. Abel’s TDD looked decent in his debut, but that came as quite a shock to me considering the trouble he had in prior fights. I think we are going to see Nurmy mix his attack up between ground and feet and get the better of it in all scenarios. At $1.38 his value is low, but the number is about right. He is probably worth inclusion on your parlay bets, but also take a look at the total rounds under 2.5, again I will post this I the prop section.

Colton Smith $1.47 vs

Smith is a grappler, he overwhelms and smothers his opponent and since joining the UFC no one has been able to stop him, either on the show or in his debut. I don’t anticipate Whittaker being that guy, unless he can land a big shot that really backs Smith off and makes him start to hesitate. Whittaker has never faced a guy like Colton before as far as grapplers are concerned and while I like Robert’s striking I don’t think he will be able to use it much. Including his TUF final win and in a number of his previous bouts, Whittaker has appeared vulnerable against grapplers. Smith’s chin is a little bit questionable as he has limited experience taking a big shot, but again the opportunities will be limited. I think Smith has some solid value at almost $1.50. I think he is a good add to most of your parlays and would be decent partner to the dogs I am backing like Grant, Burrell, and Payan.

Dennis Bermudez $1.40 vs

It is really a shame that one of these guys has to lose this fight. Stylistically, Bermudez is a bad matchup for Holloway with his aggressive wrestling approach. If Max can thwart the takedowns he could outstrike, but keep Bermudez at range will be difficult. The one scenario I do foresee as a legit possibility is Holloway catching Bermudez with a counter and finishing him. As I noted in the preview Bermudez is prone to get hurt in fights mainly based on his aggressive style and porous striking defense. So far he has been able to recover every time he got hurt but he is pressing his luck especially against Holloway who is a decent counter striker and knows how to finish when he gets the chance. Bermudez at $1.40 as some worth considering I am on so many favourites for this event and adding him to a parlay or two is the best use for him. I did just finish saying that Holloway could win this fight, but their is just one general scenario that I feel he does it in which is hard to back even though there is a lot of evidence suggesting it could happen. What I would suggest is playing the Total rounds under 2.5, Prop section for further details.

Mike Pyle $2.05 vs

If you are backing Rick Story like I am then the line is moving in the right direction. He has gain some value, which isn’t shocking considering how good Pyle has looked lately. Pyle has picked up 3 impressive wins, but all over guys that are very different then Rick Story. The typical guys that have beaten Pyle on the other hand are very similar to Story; Jake Ellenberger, Brock Larson, and Rory MacDonald (at least how he beat Pyle is similar to what Story brings). Strong wrestlers with very solid ground games there were able to outmuscle and eventually finish Mike on the ground. I think Story is going to be able to bully Pyle along the cage, get some solid top control time and either finish him or grind out a dominant win. A little surprisingly (this is why the line is moving) the public on my site is currently favouring Pyle at a 61% clip with 44 votes cast. So far at anything below 64% the underdogs are 4-16 when picked by the fans and at 60%-64% they are 1-3. I know these are still small sample sizes, but I do like when the numbers are in my favour. Either way Pyle has looked good and Story has had trouble with good grapplers (Brenneman, Kampmann, and Maia), but I think Story offers more then Pyle will be able to deal with. Just some food for though he was getting busted up along the wall by both Neer and Head before catching them finishing them and that is a place that Story loves to fight and he has solid chin. I would say a solid straight single bet on Story is the play here, maybe one of your higher plays of the night along with tossing him into a couple of parlays.

Donald Cerrone $1.36 vs

To me Noons is given much more credit then he deserves and I think that comes from him fighting for so long with Elite XC and then Strikeforce where they wanted to push him as an elite LW. He is a good boxer, but outside of his hands he doesn’t do much more with his striking attack and his ground game is almost non-existent. For Cerrone he is a talented Muay Thai striker and equally as dangerous on the ground. If he could improve his wrestling and get his takedown numbers up over 2.5 he would add another dimension to his game. Unless Noons can knock him out Cerrone is going to out land him, using his kicks to back him off, and probably mix in some ground work to seal the deal. Some people point to Cowboy’s struggles with Nate Diaz’s boxing but I just don’t see that happening here with Noons and if it does Cerrone will try to take him to the ground as a counter measure. For betting purposes there are a couple of options the first is using Cerrone in a parlay and the other is to play the over/ under for the totals. Do you play over or do you play under? I’ll tell you in the prop section.

T.J. Grant $2.80 vs

I like this fight and it is not just because I am a homer and like the Canadian guy. Maynard is a perfect test for Grant to see where he is at in the division and so far he has smashed his way through his first 4 LW fights. Of course the winner gets a shot at the title which adds a tonne of pressure to this fight. Maynard is a wrestler but he has fallen in love with his boxing and if that keeps him from wrestling TJ he is going to get himself in trouble. I really like Grant’s striking, he looks poised and calculated and if he can maintain that approach it should prevent him from getting bullied around the cage. This will be my largest single bet for the night with Grant and I will be working a few parlays as well with him included. There is also a prop bet or two that I am leaning towards, but I haven’t fully committed to it yet. If it makes the cut I will post it in the props section.

James Te Huna $3.10 vs

I was so close to pulling the trigger on Te Hun here, so close. He is a talented guy and brings it every night. Add into this the fact that Teixeira really hasn’t been test at this level yet even in the UFC and an upset could be in the making. He has fought Kyle Kingsbury- a tough but low level guy, Fabio Maldonado who has the glaring ground game issues, and a well passed his prime Rampage Jackson. Te Huna hits hard, he is improving his striking technique, and his wrestling is making strides. I went with Glover because he appears to be the more refined fighter and his capabilities on the ground are going take away one of Te Huna’s weapons. I am leaning towards playing Glover on a parlay, but I think the best play here for your money is to make a bet on Te Huna. His price is higher then it should be here as I think the talent gap is much closer then these numbers indicate making him the best bang for your buck in this battle.

Junior dos Santos $1.27 vs

I went into breaking this fight down with the mindset that Hunt is going enjoy fighting JDS because there won’t be nearly the threat of getting taken down. Is Junior going to stand with? Maybe. I wouldn’t be shocked to see JDS shooting on Hunt in an effort to disrupt his timing. I like Junior’s chances here but I don’t like his price tag. At $1.27 he pays way to low and contributes on such a minimal level that risking him getting clipped by the very capable striker that he is facing for a small gain is for lack of a better term- stupid. Where I will be playing this bet is for him to win by decision. Hunt is a tough dude and has only been stopped once. He should have enough striking savvy to avoid getting tagged with the finishing blow of Dos Santos and go the distance. If Shane Carwin can endure what he did and still go the full 15 then Hunt should be able to as well. If JDS looks for the takedown that should only encourages us further with the Decision play as I don’t see him submitting Hunt on the mat with Mark’s surprisingly improved grappling defence.

Cain Velasquez $1.15 vs Antonio Silva $5.50

You can already guess where I going to go with this one. If I didn’t like JDS at $1.27, I won’t even look at Cain at $1.15. The prop bets are the best option here and to avoid repeating myself I will direct you to the prop section for those plays (when I post them in a few minutes). Is Antonio Silva a bet worth making? On a lot of the books he is now paying out over $6.00 and some even have him close to $7.00 and at those numbers yes he is. I do think Silva will fair better then in the first fight and if he can land one of those lunch box sized paws on Cain’s chin anything is possible. Play small bet on Bigfoot and then look at the prop options.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Dennis Bermudez $1.40

2. Khabib Nurmagomedov $1.38

3. Cain Velasquez $1.15

4. Colton Smith $1.47

5. Junior dos Santos $1.27

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6. Donald Cerrone $1.36

7. Rick Story $1.74

8. TJ Grant $2.80

9. Brian Bowles $1.36

10.

11. Estevan Payan $2.92

12. Nah-Shon Burrell $2.40

-Purchase the $5 Bet Pack to get my rankings for the entire event + my non-predicted Top 5 Value Plays


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. TJ Grant $2.80 Love this play, I think it is going to be a great fight and Grant is the play to make here with the combination of his value and skill against a well known commodity in Maynard who hasn’t looked that great in his last couple of fights.
2. Estevan Payan $2.92 Can’t back Stephens he just hasn’t looked good and 145 isn’t the answer to those problems. Payan is unknown and that is helping to add to his value here.
3. Rick Story $1.74 As this number begins to climb I like Story more and more. Pyle has looked great, but this is a different style opponent then the men he has beaten on his current streak. Story carries the day here.
4. JDS to Win by Decision $2.84 I couldn’t pass this one up even though it is a prop. Hunt will be difficult to put away and JDS knows he needs a win and might play it a little safer to avoid losing his title shot. Play the decision and enjoy the inflated payout based on the tendency of HW fights to end early.
5. Nah-Shon Burrell $2.40 I want to see Thompson beat a talented well rounded fighter before I back him as a favourite and Burrell is that test. Until he wins this type of fight he shouldn’t be such a fav especially coming off such a lengthy layoff.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. James Te Huna $3.10 Like I said in the breakdown that I was close to taking Te Huna. He is being undervalued here and although I think Teixeira should win this fight, Te Huna has value and is going to be his stiffest test to date. Take a shot here.
2. George Roop $3.30 Bowles’s time away from the cage is such a concern that I would consider placing a small bet on Roop. If it was anyone else in the division I would feel much more confident, but Roop at 135 is a big risk as well.
3. $2.90 Could Smith taste defeat for the first time since signing with the UFC? Maybe, if Whittaker can land and that is a big if.
4. Antonio Silva $5.50 The higher this number climbs the more and more enticing Bigfoot is as a dog. Over $6.00 is certainly worth a play. Cain destroyed him in their first meeting, but Bigfoot has looked solid since and interestingly enough has been an escalading underdog from Browne to Overeem to Cain despite winning the first two (I picked him in both),
5. No Play

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.


Prop Bets-

George Roop/ Brian Bowles Total Rounds Under 2.5- Roop leaves his chin up and out which will be a prime candidate for a a guy like Bowles to do a little chin check. On the ground Bowles is also tough and could shut this one down early. Play the Under.

Khabib Nurmagomedov/Abel Trujillo Total Rounds Under 2.5– Between the 2 of them they have 3 finishes in 4 UFC fights. Both guys are aggressive and will come out looking for the finish. This style will produce a lot of offensive, but also create openings in their respective defenses. Play the Under.

Dennis Bermudez/ Max Holloway Total Rounds Under 2.5– Seems to be a trend here with the unders. Bermudez is aggressive, sometimes to his own detriment. This could lead to him getting the finish, most likely if he can take Max down and look for a sub, but he could also run himself into something and get countered. I talked about this trend already, so you don’t feel like risking it with Holloway or taking a shot with the low playing Bermudez get on the Under.

Donald Cerrone/ KJ Noons Total Rounds Over 2.5- Both guys are tough to finish with only 4 total defeats by stoppage in a combined 43 fights. I expect Cerrone will try to use his kicks to maintain distance and outpoint KJ’s boxing. The biggest concern is if Cerrone gets this fight to the ground, but Noons should be able to do enough to avoid getting submitted. Play the Over.

Donald Cerrone to Win by DecisionSee the above explanation.

TJ Grant/ Gray Maynard Total Rounds Over 2.5- With 16 career decision between them I expect this fight is going the distance. Grant looked lethal in his last fight but Gray is tough to put…away. If Maynard uses his wrestling he could grind out a decision win and then the over still hits. Play the Over.

Glover Teixeira to Win by Submission- Te Huna has cleaned up his grappling defense, but he has been tapped out 4 times. If Glover hurts him on the feet he could look for a submission similar to the Kingsbury fight. He could also shoot for a single leg and work from there.

Junior Dos Santos to Win by Decision– This pays well and is a pick I am really confident in. JDS could use his grappling to showcase a new dimension and capitalize on Hunt’s potential weakness. If they stand and trade someone could go night night, but their respective striking defense should be good enough to push this fight into the later stages. Play the Over.

Cain Velasquez to win by TKO/KO/DQ- I don’t expect it to be easier then last time, but something similar could happen and Velasquez straight up doesn’t pay well enough to consider playing.

Cain Velasquez/ Antonio Silva Total Rounds Under 2.5I can’t see this 5 round fight being under 1.5, but if it is and the price is right take a shot. This play covers the possibility to Velasquez scoring the TKO or Bigfoot catching him with that big fight changing shot. Even if Cain can’t get the quick stoppage, 2.5 rounds is plenty of time for his pace to wear Silva down to the point that he can’t defend anymore and the ref steps in.