UFC 158 Post Fight Results, Review, & Bet Pack

Scott Johnson

UFC 158 was a Welterweight showcase, featuring 6 of the top 170 pounders on the planet along with a rising young Canadian fighter and a former Top 10 Welterweight looking to return to contention.  GSP retained his title in typical GSP fashion- a dominant performance, but to the disappointment of many (including the champion) the fight ended in another decision. Johny Hendricks further solidified his position as the true top contender for the title and Jake Ellenberger’s impressive knockout of Nate Marquardt re-entered his name into title talk. Kamikaze Overdrive finished with an 8-4 prediction record, going 5-2 on the prelims and 3-2 on the main card. It was also a decent night for the bet packs and all of the Bet Pack information can be seen below. Interesting night of fights, let’s take a look at each of them.

 

George Roop def. Reuben Duran

Roop’s back was against the wall and he walked away a winner with a gritty performance. Duran is now 1-3 in the UFC and is most likely on his way out. Roop had a previous fight with Yuri Alcantara scrapped, maybe that should be his next bout.

TJ Dillashaw def. Issei Tamura

Dillashaw continues to improve and picks up another solid win. It would shock me if Tamura survived the chopping block after this one. TJ Dillashaw vs Alex Caceres would be a great fight of former TUFers.

Rick Story def. Quinn Mulhern

This was a bad match up for Mulhern from the start. He wasn’t able to get any form of BJJ attack going and Story just powered through him. Quinn deserves another shot though despite the rough start, maybe against Bobby Voelker. Story needs to rebuild his image as a legit mid-tier threat. Story vs Patrick Cote could provide some solid fireworks.

John Makdessi def. Daron Cruickshank

Good scrap here, Makdessi proved to be a little more refined. I had Makdessi originally and switched so I spent the better part of the fight kicking myself. Makdessi showed some improved TDD, but shouldn’t be rushed into fighting a wrestler any time soon. John Makdessi vs Edson Barboza would be a fantastic throw down and Daron Cruickshank against Ramsey Nijem might work.

Jordan Mein def. Dan Miller

It was close early for Mein with that armbar attempt, but he showed excellent poise and put away a tough opponent. Miller had never been stopped in his career, which only adds to the feat and I told people to play Mein by KO/TKO at over $5.00 which worked out. Miller needs another chance, maybe against another former MW in Nick Catone. For Mein, take it slow, and let him develop both as a fighter and a fan favourite. Mein vs Kyle Noke.

Darren Elkins def. Antonio Carvalho

It was unfortunate how this one finished, but it was clear that Elkins had a significant upper hand and could have finished Carvalho badly had he been given the chance. Elkins is climbing the divisional rankings and needs a Top 10 challenge. Chad Mendes just lost his opponent and the limited damage that Elkins took should make him available for that opportunity. For Carvalho it’s a tough defeat for sure, he still has potential. Carvalho re-matching Hatsu Hioki would be interesting.

Patrick Cote def. Bobby Voelker

It was an interesting decision. I could see it both ways, but slightly more in favour of Voelker. Cote looks like he has lost it and the move WW didn’t do much for him. It was a fun fight for the most part. See above for where they should both go from here.

Mike Ricci def. Colin Fletcher

I had hoped this fight would quiet the people saying it shouldn’t have been on the main card. It didn’t. Fletcher should be cut and Ricci paired with Adriano Martins would make for a fun fight.

Chris Camozzi def. Nick Ring

This fight couldn’t have played out any closer to how I predicted it. I wasn’t that surprised, maybe a little disgusted with how Joe and Goldie were all over Ring. Either way the right man won the fight. Ring in a rematch with Riki Fukuda is something I would like to see. Camozzi vs Brad Tavares.

Jake Ellenberger def. Nate Marquardt

It started off well for Marquardt and the way he used the legs kicks was a testament to his ability to learn and improve. Unfortunately he took a nap before the first 5 minutes were up which isn’t a good thing. Ellenberger showed his power and poise and he stays right in the mix. Demian Maia vs Ellenberger would solidify the winner in the upper echelon while Marquardt still has a lot to offer maybe on a Fuel main card against Thiago Alves when he returns.

Johny Hendricks def. Carlos Condit

I think there is a case here for Condit as the winner. He was clearly more effective in latter half of the fight on the feet and much more active when the fight hit the ground. I think judges need to look closer at grappling exchanges then just who took the fight to the mat. Hendricks vs GSP is the only acceptable options for Bigg Rigg and Condit against Rory if he isn’t out too long or a rematch with Martin Kampmann.

Georges St-Pierre (C) def. Nick Diaz

GSP retains his title, but it seems like an incomplete fight with his lack of focus on finishing. I was screaming at him to attempt to take Nick’s back in the first half of the fight, but he appeared more interested in maintaining position then finishing. Many will complain, but until someone does something about it, not much can be said. Between this fight and his loss to Condit Diaz has all been exposed as far as his weaknesses are concerned. He is still an entertaining fighter and I hope he sticks around. GSP vs Hendricks as mentioned above and Diaz vs Robbie Lawler in a rematch would be a great fight.

Final Thoughts

There is a big gap ahead of us before UFC on Fuel TV 9 gets here and I for one like it. I really look forward to events, but whenever there is a little bit of a layoff it always makes fight night that much more enjoyable. Hope you enjoyed the show!<

UFC 158

*I have started to use Props in my parlays, if your book doesn’t offer the prop or won’t allow them to be used in a parlay- use a pick from my confidence list.

Parlay Doubles

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Carlos Condit $2.20
Selection 2: St-Pierre by Decision $1.57
===================================================
Price: $3.45
 
===================================================
Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2: Reuben Duran $1.79
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Price: $4.44
 
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Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2: Daron Cruickshank $1.87
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Price: $3.83

Parlay Triples

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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Jordan Mein $1.34
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Story/ Mulhern Over 2.5 $1.50
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Price: $3.02

==================================================

Parlay #5
===================================================
Selection 1: Ring/ Camozzi Over 2.5 $1.40
Selection 2: Carlos Condit $2.20
Selection 3: Reuben Duran $1.79
===================================================
Price: $5.51

Parlay Double-Double

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Parlay #6
===================================================
Selection 1: St-Pierre by Decision $1.57
Selection 2: Carvalho/ Elkins Over 2.5 $1.45
Selection 3: Daron Cruickshank $1.87
Selection 4: Mike Ricci $1.38
===================================================
Price: $5.87
 
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Parlay #7
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2: Jordan Mein $1.34
Selection 3: Ring/ Camozzi Over 2.5 $1.40
Selection 4:
===================================================
Price: $6.98
 

A Puncher’s Chance

===================================================
Parlay #8- Why the Hell not?
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2: Daron Cruickshank $1.87
Selection 3: Reuben Duran $1.79
Selection 4: Carlos Condit $2.20
Selection 5:
Selection 6: St-Pierre by Decision $1.57
Selection 7:
===================================================
Price: $88.17

Rotation Play #1

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Parlay #9
===================================================
Selection 1: St-Pierre by Decision $1.57
Selection 2: Reuben Duran $1.79
Selection 3: Jordan Mein $1.34
Selection 4:
Selection 5: Carlos Condit $2.20
===================================================
Price: $12.43
 
===================================================
Parlay #10
===================================================
Selection 1: St-Pierre by Decision $1.57
Selection 2: Reuben Duran $1.79
Selection 3: Jordan Mein $1.34
Selection 4:
Selection 5:
===================================================
Price: $14.01
 
===================================================
Parlay #11
===================================================
Selection 1: St-Pierre by Decision $1.57
Selection 2: Reuben Duran $1.79
Selection 3: Jordan Mein $1.34
Selection 4:
Selection 5:
===================================================
Price: $11.58
 
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Reuben Duran $1.79 vs George Roop $2.13

Roop is up against here and base on the footage cutting to 135 is a difficult task for him. He looked so weakened by making the cut it is hard to consider him as a viable bet. Additionally, he was 3 years younger when he made his first attempt so this time around it could be even more difficult. Duran didn’t look great in his last fight, well honestly he looked like a punching bag for Viana. If you go back to his earlier footage against Mizugaki and Rivera when he wasn’t coming off a huge layout he looked much better. It is difficult to anticipate how a fighter will fair in a new division without any previous footage, as is the case with Patrick Cote, but in this fight we have the luxury of seeing Roop at 135. He was facing a pretty dynamic striker in Eddie Wineland, but still he looked horrid. I like the odds on this fight, Duran has been slightly creeping up but I don’t seee him going much higher. He will most likely make my value list and I would advocate a single bet on him here along with inclusion in a parlay or two. For Roop he is a no play until I see a better performance at 135.

Best Bet: Reuben Duran $1.79

TJ Dillashaw $1.18 vs Issei Tamura $4.75

This was not the originally schedulled fight. Dillashaw was paired up with Mike Easton a few shows back and Tamura was going to fight Mitch Gagnon at 158. TJ hand to pull out his fight and then when Gagnon was forced out the UFC needed a replacement and Dillashaw was ready to go. What I am driving at here is that the UFC likes to pair guys up who are close to the same level which was the case with the original fights, but when injuries force their hand they will make fights like this one. Tamura is a low level fighter in the division while Dillashaw is on the rise and should be facing top tier guys like Easton. Could Tamura catch him with a big shot like he did in his debut, maybe, but unlikely. The betting public on my site are fairly certain how this fight is going to go with TJ currently holding a 39-2 edge which is 95% and so far in 6 fights where the public is 95-100% in favour of a fighter he is undefeated. The draw back is that TJ pays so poorly that he really isn’t worth the risk here. If you can get him above the $1.25 mark then give him a play. I will most likely include him in a parlay, but not too much more.

Best Bet: TJ Dillashaw only if you can find him over $1.25

Rick Story $1.26 vs Quinn Mulhern $4.18

This is the last fight I predicted and for good reason. I went back and watched all the footage I could find on Mulhern to see if he was a legit threat to win this fight. I was very close to pulling the trigger on him as my pick based on Story’s seemingly questionable grappling defense. The reason I stopped is because I couldn’t find any solid footage of Quinn being able to score takedowns on a wrestler with the skills of Story. In fact Mulhern vs Jason High played out pretty much just like I expect this fight to. High doing damage on the feet, scoring takedowns, doing a little damage on the ground, defending submission attempts, and then getting baclk to his feet. If Mulhern can get this fight to the ground in a decent offensive position by sweeping or scrambling then he has a chance to either submit or control Story. If he can’t and spends long durations of the fight on his back he will get donkey konged by Story. Even though Rick is my pick, the odds on Mulhern are just too good to give pass on. Should he be this big of a dog? Time will tell. I think it is partially due to the fact that he is a relative unknown Strikeforce prelim fighter taking the fight on late notice while Story is a known commodity to most of the betting public. My advice here is a single bet on Mulhern to win this fight and then use Story in your parlays. That way if the Mighty Quinn ruins your parlay you at least pick up some cash and if the Story holds true then your parlay will keep ticking along.

Best Bet: Story in a parlay and Mulhern as a single bet

Daron Cruickshank $1.87 vs John Makdessi $1.87

These odds are getting closer with Cruickshank opening around the $1.55 mark and now rising up. Both guys have pretty solid striking skills and this was another one of those fights that I gave an extra long look at as my initial reaction was to back Makdessi. After going back through a number of their fights I couldn’t really find a clear striking advantage for either man that gave them this fight, but I kept going back to the fact that Cruickshank also has his wrestling to fall back on. It doesn’t always hold true but more often then not in a fight where I haven’t been sure who to bet on, the fighter with more aspects to his game usually comes out on top. I made this pick right before the odds were posted and was a little disappointed to see that Cruickshank was such a heavy favourite, but now that the odds have turned a little bit I like this play more. For I will most likely use Cruickshank as a part of a couple of parlays. He has some decent value and potentially could be the dog by fight time, but I think this is going to be a close fight. If Cruickshank uses his wrestling and can do so effectively then he could walk away with it, but on the feet short of a knockout either way we could be splitting hairs here.

Best Bet: Daron Cruickshank $1.87

Jordan Mein $1.34 vs

Mein opened around $1.40, rushed up to as high as $1.73, and now has come back down to earth. If you were fortunate enough to get this guy at his peak then congratulations. I think Mein has a tonne of potential and should be able to make his way up the rankings fairly quickly. My guess is he will be ranked in my top 20 contenders by the end of his 3rd UFC fight. Miller is a tough fighter and an excellent stepping stone, although I really wasn’t all that impressed with him in his 170 pound debut. He went to the 3rd round with Ricardo Funch who I just don’t think is a UFC level fighter. The cut to a new weight class most often goes better the second time around, but Mein is a significant jump in competition from Funch. Miller has faced a tonne of high level opponents at MW, but Mein has a pretty solid list respectable opponents as well so he is far from untested. My first inclination in this fight is to use Mein as part of my parlays. At his current price, he doesn’t have a lot of bang for the the buck, but there are lower paying options so I will run with him. The bet with significantly more potential that I am looking at is Mein by KO or TKO. Most sites have it paying out at around $5.20 which is fair considering Miller has never been stopped. I did take Mein by decision based on Miller having never been finished, but with these odds it is worth a play. Mein is a dangerous striker and has the ability to really push the pace. If Miller has any trouble with the weight cut that cost him later in the fight I could see Mein raising the intensity and finishing him. Even if Miller doesn’t suffer from the cut Mein has the ability to put guys away with the amount of damage he can pile up on an opponents, especially with his short elbow strikes that we have seen him finish both Santos and Petz with.

Best Bet: Jordan Mein by TKO/KO/DQ $5.20

Antonio Carvalho $2.79 vs

Carvalho has slowly started creeping into the conversation at Featherweight. Not quite the title contention conversation, but instead the one about good fighters on the rise. He is a solid fighter, but Elkins is a tough test. The American is hard nosed, durable, and just keeps coming forward with his wrestling heavy attack. If Carvalho can keep this fight standing he has a great chance of winning. It is a simple gameplan, but easier said then done. I expect Elkins will be able to grind him out long enough to score the decision win. I am confident in Elkins winning this fight, but Carvalho is no slouch on the ground and has all the tools to walk away with the win if things fall into place for him. I will be using Elkins in a couple of my parlays and he could breach my top 5 confidence list, but I also feel that this fight has a very good chance of hitting the total rounds over. These two fighters have combined for 14 decisions with 6 of their last 7 in the UFC going to the judges. I see the over currently sitting at about $1.45 which pays out at just a tad less then Elkins, making it another sound betting option. Elkins should win this fight and the public is currently backing him 41 to 7, but even more likely is that this fight goes to the judges.

Best Bet: Total Rounds over 2.5

Patrick Cote $1.60 vs

This is one of those tough fights to predict for a number of reasons- a) Cote is moving to 170 for the first time b) For the first time in his career he appeared vulnerable to getting hurt- how will he react? c) Voelker is making his debut d) Voelker hasn’t fought since 2011 e) the loser of this fight is probably getting cut. One or two of these would probably be enough to make this a hard pick but there are just so many of them. My first inclination is to pass on this fight and in all reality the No Play is going to be my official call here. For full disclosure, I have that devil vs angle fight going on in my head. One side is saying go ahead and play Cote he has a decent number at $1.60 and the other is saying play it smart and just sit on this one. If you really feel the need to have money riding on this fight I would use it as an add on pick make a parlay, bet it, make a second one and add Cote. That way he doesn’t cost you the original one.

Best Bet: No Play

Mike Ricci $1.38 vs

A battle of TUF alumni, which seems to be a growing trend now a days. I think we are headed to seeing multiple TUFs going on in different countries with the winners facing off in the finale, which would be a very cool concept. Loser of this fight is most likely getting cut and from an promotional stand point I would think that the UFC would rather Ricci win then Fletcher. Ricci has more to offer and would give them another Canadian to add to the growing number of cards north of the border. Ricci’s striking is better and his wrestling should nullify the submissions of Fletcher. There is always the big question of how improved are these guys going to be since we saw them last. I would think that Ricci will show the more significant strides considering he is returning to his natural weightclass and trains out of such a high level camp like Tri-Star. The Canadian doesn’t offer a lot as a straight up winner, but still he is worth adding to your parlays with other options like GSP and Dillashaw paying out so low. For Fletcher this is a tough spot for him and I will pass until he shows me something a little more concrete as a fighter. As far as props are concerned I could see Ricci scoring the TKO or laying on top of Fletcher for 3 rounds, so I won’t attempt a bet on the over/ under or method.

Best Bet: Mike Ricci $1.38

Nick Ring $1.74 vs

Betting on this fight feels like a game of double dutch- when do I jump in. Camozzi opened at $2.40 dropped down to even for a short period of time then went up and down between even and $2.10 until settling at most books around the $2- $2.05 mark. This is a tough fight considering Ring seems to always come out with wins in fights that are close, even if most people feel he lost. Camozzi has impressed of late, but the competition hasn’t been at the same levels as who Ring has faced. I like Camozzi and he is probably worth a small single bet along with an inclusion on your parlays, but there are two other betting options in this fight. The first is the safest bet which is the total rounds over 2.5. Combined these two have gone the distance 15 times in their careers and 7 of 11 times in the UFC with 3 of the remaining 4 fights not ending until the 3rd round. The payout is around $1.40 for the Over which isn’t great but could be worse and is probably your surest bet. The other options pays more and of course is riskier, but not that much more then playing Camozzi straight up. Camozzi by decision pays out at $3.00 and considering Ring has never been finished and Camozzi has won by decision more times than by submission or knockout adding a dollar onto your odds without really giving up much is certainly worth considering. For Ring I am going to pass, he has the tools to win this fight, but I think his tendency to be involved in close fights is going to finally cost him as I think Camozzi’s scrappy style will persuade the judges to side with him in the end.

Best Bet: Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.40

Jake Ellenberger $1.62 vs

Nate Marquardt’s stock has been up and down like a yoyo. He was a Middleweight contender, He was cut from the UFC, won the Strikeforce WW title, was consider a dark horse a future threat in the UFC’s WW division once he moved over, then was upset and lost the title, and is now the underdog against Jake Ellenberger. Based on the ebb and flow of his career he is due for a win over his top 10 UFC opponent. Unfortunately MMA doesn’t usually follow these types of patterns. Ellenberger is a tough guy for anyone in the division and seems to have been on the cusp of a title shot for a long time now. My biggest concern with Nate is that he sometimes forgoes Defense in favour of Offense and it can cost him dearly. He was over aggressive at times against Woodley and got hurt and the manner in which he tried to work through the leg kicks in his last fight with doing anything about them was what cost him the title. Ellenberger is not the type of guy to be taken lightly and if he connects he can do some serious damage. Nate is a talented fighter and at $2.48 or anything above $2.20 he really has some solid value and is worth a decent single bet and inclusion on a couple of parlays. For Jake, he hasn’t impressed me since the first round of the Kampmann fight and even against Diego the manner in which he faded was a huge concern. He appeared hesitant at times against Hieron and that isn’t a good thing against Nate. Most are overlooking Marquardt but compared to a lot of the guys that Jake has beaten (Kampmann, Diego, Hieron, Shields, Pearson, Rocha, Pyle, and Howard) Nate is a step up in competition in one form or another based on the combination of his physicality and technical skills. I would like to see how Ellenberger fairs in back at this level after getting put away by M.K. (I took Kampmann) before I trust him int he role of a betting fav again.

Best Bet: Nate Marquardt $2.48

Carlos Condit $2.20 vs

Hendricks is a fighter on the rise and his KOs have been impressive, but the fact still remains if he can’t score the knockout the decisions he has been in are very close.

UFC Knockout wins (5)- Kampmann, Fitch, Waldburger, Brenneman, and Sadollah

UFC Decisions (5)- Koscheck Split, Pierce Split, Story Decision Lose, Grant Majority Decision (Grant was deducted a point), and Funch was the only unanimous decision win.

A win is a win, but the point I am driving at is that when he doesn’t put his opponents away he isn’t nearly as dominant. Looking even closer at the fighters he has gone to decision with- Kos, Pierce, and Story all have comparable styles to Hendricks, that Wrestler-boxer combinations. He clearly beat Funch so I will discard him from the comparison. In the Grant fight TJ was deducted a point for a couple of low blows, but the fight was very close and it came down to Hendrick’s ability to out muscle the now Lightweight Grant and score takedowns. With Condit he has the size edge, and is pretty nasty on the ground, along with a far more diverse striking repertoire and up until now he has never be KOed. If Hendricks can’t score the knockout he is going to need to put Condit on his back and keep him there to win a decision, but that could prove difficult in itself with Condit’s grappling skills. Rory was able to do it, but Carlos negated pretty much all of his top game offense and Johny really isn’t known for his ability to take guys down and do damage. I really like Condit in this fight. I think he wins in most scenarios and has built a gameplan that maximizes his advantages while shutting down the power and wrestling of Hendricks. I would say a large bet on Condit is the way to go along with using him in your parlays. I think a main card three-play of Condit, Marquardt, and Camozzi has some nice potential! For Hendricks, he could prove me wrong again as I took Kampmann, but I think the gameplan/ Fight IQ of Condit will be the difference. If Hendricks does win, nothing less then a title shot would be acceptable.

Best Bet: Carlos Condit $2.20

Georges St-Pierre $1.23 vs

Shocking GSP in a fight where he is the favourite by a landslide. As of right now anyone vs GSP at WW is going to be a significant dog which makes turning a big profit off of this fight a bit of a task. Is Nick Diaz a valid betting option? I don’t think so. I see this fight playing out in a similar fashion to the Henderson/ Nate Diaz fight, potentially worse. To my surprise the betting public on my site isn’t nearly as one sided as I expected with the Champ holding an edge of 37-21. That current total has GSP with 64% of the betting public and so far when fighters are in the 60%-64% range the favourite is 7-2. At $1.23 GSP doesn’t offer that much to your parlay, but I still think he is a pretty safe bet to take this fight so its not as big of a risk to add him. For me there are two other options, GSP is a decision machine and many feel we are headed towards another one. If that is the case GSP by decision at $1.57 is a big improvement on him winning straight up. If you want to take your potential payout on a single bet up a lot then I think a solid play would be GSP by KO/TKO at $5.75. Georges appears to be inspired to do some damage and the last couple times he has been this amped up about a fight he throttled both Matt Serra and BJ Penn winning inside the distance. I could see him beating Diaz down so significantly on the mat that the Ref is forced to step in, but at the same time Nick is one tough customer. The other option for this bet to work is a cut. GSP has some solid GnP and nasty elbows and Nick has been a bleeder in the past. If the Champ starts dropping some big shots on him he could open Diaz up and force a stoppage potentially because he can’t defend himself like the Bigfoot/ Cain fight or because the doctor says so. Either way that would also chalk up a win for the TKO/KO prop. I did take GSP by TKO, but the best bet for this fight is St-Pierre by decision. I would think that playing that as part of your parlays and then a single bet with GSP by TKO or doubling it up with one of Marquardt or Condit is the way to approach this fight.

Best Bet: GSP to win by Decision $1.57.

 

Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Georges St-Pierre $1.23

2. TJ Dillashaw $1.18

3. Jordan Mein $1.34

4. Mike Ricci $1.38

5.

====================

6. Carlos Condit $2.20

7. Rick Story $1.26

8.

9. Reuben Duram $1.79

10. Daron Cruickshank $1.87

11. Chris Camozzi $2.05

12. Patrick Cote $1.60

-Purchase the $5 Bet Pack to get my rankings for the entire event + my non-predicted Top 5 Value Plays

Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Carlos Condit $2.20 Simply too many tools for Johny Hendricks to deal with- he needs to use movement and angles to take away Hendricks’s power and wrestling. Betting Public favouring Condit 31-21 (Friday)
2. $2.48 This line is the product of a lack of respect for Nate and an over appreciation for what Ellenberger has accomplished. Big fight for both guys, should be evenly matched and if that is the case I like having the numbers on my side.
3. Reuben Duran $1.79 I snapped my 2 event prelim slump on the last show going 5-1 with the only defeat a questionable one, lets keep it rolling here. I put a lot of work into my prelim picks and used a new research technique (did it for the UFC on Fuel TV 8 prelims too). I can’t bet on Roop at 135, he looked so poor. Duran has a lot of talent should have a better showing not coming off such a long layoff.
4. Chris Camozzi $2.05 This is going to be a tough close fight and that is why my best bet for this bout was the total rounds over, but I still think that Camozzi has a great chance to win and he is worth a bet here.
5. Daron Cruickshank $1.87 I went back and forth on this one and the wrestling of Cruickshank was the final push in his direction. He opened as a favourite but the line is moving and could slide him closer to $2.00 before bell time.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Quinn Mulhern $4.18 I was very close on pulling the trigger on this upset. Story has the tools to win this fight and should, but Mulhern is improving and moving to Jackson’s could add more to his game. Using Story in your parlays and a single bet on Mulhern is the way to go, but if can go without the few extra dollars that Story provides to your parlay then just play a single bet on Mulhern. He is being severely overlooked in this fight.
2. Antonio Carvalho $2.79 Carvalho’s ground game is my biggest concern. If he can prevent or effectively attack Elkins off his back he can win this fight. He is the better striker and will be at home which could help with a close decision.
3. $2.44 My official pick was Cote, but I said that I will not be playing this fight with all of the question marks surrounding it. If you do want to take a shot at it Voelker at $2.44 is probably the way
4. No Play
5. No Play

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Prop Bets

Rick Story/ Quinn Mulhern Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.50– With 18 decisions between them I think the over is worth a look. Story has also gone the distance in 8 of his 11 UFC fights and should use a cautious approach to avoid giving Mulhern any openings to get his grappling going.

Jordan Mein to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $5.20- This play is based a lot on the value. Miller has never been stopped, but cutting to WW could take enough out of him to make him vulnerable to the power and high volume striking of Mein. Mein knows how to finish fights check out his wins over Santos and Forrest Petz for proof.

Antonio Carvalho/ Darren Elkins Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.45– Elkins is tough to put away and uses a style that produced a high number of decisions- 6 of 15 wins and all 4 of his UFC Featherweight bouts. Carvalho has gone to the judges 8 times in 20 fights including 2 times in his 3 fight UFC career. The Canadian’s defense should be good enough to limit the damage, but he will still be in tough.

Nick Ring/ Chris Camozzi Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.4015 combined Decisions and 7 of 11 UFC fights have gone the distance. Camozzi has been finished 3 times, but he is a tough guy to finish and Ring has never been put away. This is going to be grueling fight that could be tough for the judges. Get your win before Buffer calls it and play the over.

Chris Camozzi to Win by Decision $3.00 I like Camozzi to win this fight, but I don’t see him putting Ring away so the decision adds another $1.00 on his price which is a marked improvement.

Georges St-Pierre to win by Decision $1.57GSP is known for grinding decisions, why not cash in on it. Diaz is a tough guy had hard to put away so if George can’t overwhelm him on the ground or bust him open we are going the distance.

Georges St-Pierre/ Nick Diaz Total Rounds Over 4.5- See Above.

Georges St-Pierre to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $5.75– Diaz continually hits him with low blows until they call the fight. No, but GSP seems motivated and has stopped guys in the past that ran their mouths. This prop has a tonne of value so a bet on it makes sense, maybe even working it with Condit or Marquardt. I know I also suggested the Decision for GSP, but I will be playing both- Decision in tha parlays and TKO/KO by itself.