UFC 157 Post Fight Results, Review, & Bet Pack

Scott Johnson

Despite an incredibly close call that had many on the edge of their seats, the Queen of MMA still resides in her throne. Ronda Rousey finished Liz Carmouche in the waning moments of the first round by her patented armbar, but the near neck-crank that the challenger had applied only moments earlier almost ended the Champ’s rein before it began The back and forth first round was an exciting conclusion to a very entertaining card and served to launch the UFC Women’s Bantamweight division off on the right foot. Kamikaze Overdrive got back in the win column with a huge night finishing 9-3, including winning 7 of the last 8 fights. The UFC 157 bet packs were firing on all cylinders with multiples winning parlays, 4 of 5 correctly predicted Confidence list picks, the top 3 Value picks all coming through, and 5 of 7 props hitting including a $5.10 odd on Urijah Faber to win by submission. You can check out the entire UFC 157 Bet Pack below along with my fight by fight breakdowns up next.

Prelims

170lbs- Yuri Villefort (pick) vs Nah-Shon Burrell

A solid scrap to get things started, Burrell missing weight forced him into must win situation and he delivered. Villefort needs to work on some of the technical aspect of his game, but he is young. With the rash of cuts I could see Villefort getting the axe, but they will keep an eye on him.

170lbs- Jon Manley vs Neil Magny (pick)

I only watched this fight in bits and pieces. It basically played out the way I expected it to with Magny being the better striker and Manley trying to get it to the ground. Magny turned out to have an edge on the mat which along with his striking gave him the win. Manley should be let go and a fight between Magny and the above Burrell makes sense to me.

170lbs- Kenny Robertson (pick) vs Brock Jardine

My one and only upset pick of the night, Robertson came through with an interesting submission hold. The fight was brief but had a few nice exchanges on the mat. Jardine will/should be let go and Robertson gets another chance to prove his worth.

155lbs- Sam Stout vs Caros Fodor (pick)

Stout/ Fodor played out as I expected with the exception of the final decision. I had the Over 2.5 round and felt Fodor did enough to win a split decision, but in the end the vet gets the W. Good scrap. I hope thye keep Fodor he has an entertaining style and Sammy can hopefully continue his development as a multi-faceted fighter.

145lbs-  Dennis Bermudez (pick) vs Matt Grice

What a fantastic fight, back and forth from the start. My prediction included the fact that Bermudez usually gets hurt in the early going and that held true. Both guys showed their worth and I could have seen that decision really go either way. Bermudez should get a bump up the ranks and Grice should keep moving along too with a performance like that.

155lbs- Michael Chiesa (pick) vs Anton Kuivanen 

Kuivanen looked good early shutting down any and all grappling advances that Chiesa made, but the TUF champ showed the toughness that he is known for and finished with a nice submission. Kuivanen should be sent packing and Chiesa will hopefully work on his striking prior to his next fight.

265lbs- Brendan Schaub (pick) vs Lavar Johnson

You can have all the power in the world, but if you can’t stay on your feet long enough to deliver it then it doesn’t really count for anything. Schaub fought a smart, but not that exciting fight. In reality had he finished that early Anaconda choke than we would be raving about his performance. Johnson is entertaining and will stick around. Schaub against Todd Duffee would be a great fight and Johnson against Stipe Miocic or Shane Carwin would be fun. This played out perfectly with the exception of the fight ending inside the first round and a half.

UFC 157 Main Card

170lbs- Josh Koscheck (pick) vs Robbie Lawler

If Kos wasn’t badly hurt he did a terrible job of showing it. Put your hands up, turn away, or at least show that you are still in the fight. He did none of those things and wasn’t intelligently defending himself so Herb shut it down like he should have. Lawler was brought in to be fed to Kos and that didn’t play out. If Robbie can defend takedowns at 170 his striking makes him a huge threat. Kos could get cut I doubt it, but he needs a win in his next fight in the worst way. Lawler vs Mike Pyle would be a pretty solid fight.

170lbs- Court McGee (pick) vs Josh Neer

Neer caught his second wind in the second round, but McGee looked very good from start to finish. I think that he has the potential to make some noise in the division now that he isn’t undersized. McGee against the winner of Matt Brown/ Dan Hardy would be a great scrap. For Neer, he is exciting but with the level of cuts going on 3 straight losses, 2 finishes should be enough to send him packing.

135lbs- Urijah Faber (pick) vs Ivan Menjivar

This was a great fight and I hope you cashed in on this one. With 4 of 5 heavy main card favourites winning it might have been hard to win this fight unless you bought my bet pack. I actually posted this play on the Free-view section on the main page. Faber by submission paying over $5.00 was a homerun. He has lost 6 times in his career now and has rebounded 6 times with 6 submission wins over some pretty stiff competition. The way he took Menjivar’s back was impressive. If Cruz come back and beats Barao then Faber will be in line for a title shot. If Barao win and Aldo heads up to 155 maybe Faber could return to his old stomping grounds at 145. Menjivar needs to stick around he is too talented and offers too much as mid-range Bantamweight. Menjivar vs Yuri Alcantara would be a great scrap and while Faber waits for his future to be decided a fight with Scott Jorgensen might be entertaining.

205lb- Dan Henderson vs Lyoto Machida (pick)

When the split decision became clear I had flashbacks of the Machida/Rampage fight (I mentioned thi in my prediction) but Lyoto got the win. He did barely enough, he needs to find a nice balance of offensive output and defensive avoidance. He is setting himself up for trouble if he fights an opponent that can land a little bit more often then Hendo did. Lyoto by decision was my #1 value pick at over $2.00 on most sites and it came through nicely. For Henderson he should be given a break with this being his first fight back in so long. Henderson needs to fight for the title again, there are only so many contenders out there. Henderson vs Little Nog would be great with the winner on the cusp of a title shot, but if he signs to fight Shogun then Henderson vs the loser of Gustafsson/Mousasi works for me. Machida needs another win before he should get a title shot. If Gustafsson beats Mousasi then the Swede gets the shot and Machida needs at least one more win over a top 10 fighter.

Women’s 135lbs- Ronda Rousey (c) (pick) vs Liz Carmouche

I would love to know what was going through Dana White’s mind when Carmouche had Rousey’s back and was cranking on her face. Either way that was a great start for the division and laid the ground work for the ladies to build upon. The winner of Zigano/ Tate gets the next shot which works, I actually thought Alexis Davis vs Sarah McCann could be set up for a #1 contender’s bout instead, but all will come in time. At the very least Carmouche showed that Rousey isn’t invincible and Rousey showed how tough she really is. Dana’s claim that Ronda was wrecking people on the feet in the gym seems a little unfounded, but only time will tell. Carmouche earned her spot and maybe a fight with Julie Kedzie, when she signs, would make sense. Look out MMA world here come the women.

Final Thoughts…

It was a very entertaining night of fights with lot of money made and a good night of predictions at 9-3! UFC on Fuel TV 8 is less then a week away so time to move on as in this business you are only as good as your last event, or at least it seems that way.


UFC 157

*I have started to use Props in my parlays, if your book doesn’t offer the prop or won’t allow them to be used in a parlay- use a pick from my confidence list.

Parlay Doubles

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Lyoto Machida by Decision $2.09
Selection 2: Fodor/ Stout Over 2.5 $1.55
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Price: $3.24
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Brendan Schaub $1.83
Selection 2: Court McGee $1.36
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Price: $2.49
 
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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Urijah Faber to Win by Submission $5.15
Selection 2: Neil Magny $1.67
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Price: $8.60

Parlay Triples

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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Yuri Villefort $1.92
Selection 2: Kenny Robertson $2.56
Selection 3: Machida/ Henderson Over 2.5 $1.63
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Price: $8.01

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Parlay #5
===================================================
Selection 1:
Selection 2: Court McGee $1.36
Selection 3: Michael Chiesa $1.48
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Price: $3.50

Parlay Double-Doubles

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Parlay #6
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Selection 1: Schaub/ Johnson Under 1.5 $1.65
Selection 2: Lawler/ Koscheck Over 2.5 $1.83
Selection 3: Lyoto Machida by Decision $2.09
Selection 4: Urijah Faber $1.28
===================================================
Price: $8.08
 
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Parlay #7
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Selection 1: Fodor/ Stout Over 2.5 $1.55
Selection 2: Brendan Schaub $1.83
Selection 3: Lyoto Machida $1.47
Selection 4: Josh Koscheck $1.23
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Price: $5.13
 

A Puncher’s Chance

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Parlay #8- Why the Hell not?
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Selection 1: Brendan Schaub $1.83
Selection 2: Lyoto Machida by Decision $2.09
Selection 3: Lawler/ Koscheck Over 2.5 $1.83
Selection 4:
Selection 5: Kenny Robertson $2.56
Selection 6: Yuri Villefort $1.92
Selection 7: Neil Magny $1.67
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Price: $99.97

Rotation Play #1

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Parlay #9
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Selection 1: Lawler/ Koscheck Over 2.5 $1.83
Selection 2: Fodor/ Stout Over 2.5 $1.55
Selection 3: Court McGee $1.36
Selection 4: Urijah Faber $1.28
Selection 5: Lyoto Machida by Decision $2.09
===================================================
Price: $10.32
 
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Parlay #10
===================================================
Selection 1: Lawler/ Koscheck Over 2.5 $1.83
Selection 2: Fodor/ Stout Over 2.5 $1.55

Selection 3: Court McGee $1.36
Selection 4: Urijah Faber $1.28
Selection 5: Kenny Robertson $2.56
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Price: $12.65
 
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Parlay #11
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Selection 1: Lawler/ Koscheck Over 2.5 $1.83
Selection 2: Fodor/ Stout Over 2.5 $1.55

Selection 3: Court McGee $1.36
Selection 4: Urijah Faber $1.28
Selection 5:
===================================================
Price: $9.04
 

Rotation Play #2

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Parlay #12 $5.90
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Selection 1: Schaub/ Johnson Under 1.5 $1.65
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Neil Magny $1.67
Selection 4: Josh Koscheck $1.23
Selection 5: Lyoto Machida by Decision $2.09
===================================================
Price: $12.33
 
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Parlay #13
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Selection 1: Schaub/ Johnson Under 1.5 $1.65
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Neil Magny $1.67
Selection 4: Josh Koscheck $1.23
Selection 5: Kenny Robertson $2.56
===================================================
Price: $15.10
 
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Parlay #14
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Selection 1: Schaub/ Johnson Under 1.5 $1.65
Selection 2:
Selection 3: Neil Magny $1.67
Selection 4: Josh Koscheck $1.23
Selection 5: Yuri Villefort $1.92
===================================================
Price: $11.32
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Jon Manley $2.20 vs

This is a difficult fight to bet on. I have seen it so many times where fighters take time off between the end of the show and their official UFC debut and they come out looking like a completely different athlete, usually better. Off the top of my head I recall how good Michael Johnson’s striking looked in the tournament finals and more recently how good Myles Jury looked against Johnson in his debut. That really adds an element of the unknown for this fight. I went back and reviewed all of their fights on the show and some of their pre-UFC footage and based on all of that I have Magny winning. His striking is better and I have seen no indication that Manley will have a big enough edge or an edge at all on the ground to win this fight. The first thought off the top of my head for this bout is to pass, which is a pretty decent move especially if you are playing with limited bankroll. Taking a quick look over the rest of the card there aren’t a whole pile of great bets available. Including this fight I only count 5 of the 12 fighters I picked paying better then $1.55 which means even if I have a huge night predicting the monetary return could be a little less then normal. If I was a gambling man…I would roll with Magny at $1.67, really anything over $1.55. One thing that isn’t going to change is his huge reach advantage which should aid him in maintaining his distance and keep Manley at bay. I will be using Magny in at least one parlay, but sparsely. Based on recent failures on my part to win with the parlays I intend to spread things out a bit more. Manley might be worth a small play and if you are looking for a small single bet he might be worth a look, consult the non-winners list to see if he makes the cut.

Yuri Villefort $1.92 vs Nah-Shon Burrell $1.84

This fight was originally set to take place at cancelled Strikeforce event and I had already made the prediction so I just reposted it as neither man has fought since. I guess the one major change is that they are now debuting on the big stage instead of making another appearance in Strikeforce where they have already fought once. The way I look at this is you have a technically gifted fighter in Villefort and an incredibly gifted athlete trying to round out his technique. Villefort is a good athlete as well, but it is technique that is at the heart of his success. The way I look at it is that technique will overcome pure physical gifts is most scenarios which leads me to believe that Villefort wins this fight. Burrell has used grappling as an escape when the striking is going back, which it very well could here but against a talented BJJ guy like Villefort that won’t be an option. In fact I expect to see Villefort forcing Burrell to work off his back which won’t be a good thing for the American. Like I mentioned in the breakdown above this is another one of those fights that if you have limited cash then consider passing, but for me I will go with my head on this one and play Villefort. He is a slight dog and will most likely make my Value list, but that could come as the result of a lack of better options. For Burrell he has value but with these two guys being so close it is really one or the other here for me and I am on Villefort.

Kenny Robertson $2.56 vs Brock Jardine $1.54

I really don’t get the love that Jardine is getting here, is it his name? In this case I will gladly take the money and roll with Robertson. Jardine didn’t impress me in his debut especially with this striking and I know that can be attributed to jitters, but I have seen other fights where he didn’t look much better. Robertson hasn’t fared much better, 0-2 in the UFC, but I think he has shown a more developed skillset. If the wrestling cancels out then I like Robertson’s striking to carry the fight and if there is a grappling component I think that Robertson will be able to capitalize on some of Jardine’s sloppy striking to land takedowns. Either way I think that Robertson is one of the best dogs on the card and I would consider making an average sized bet on him in this fight as I have seen no reason for Jardine to be this big of a fav. I will also jump Kenny into a parlay as well to help beef up some of the lesser paying favs that this car is full of. I really don’t have much of a connection to either fighter other then Jardine being Canadian and I did my prediction before the odds were posted so this pick is totally unimpacted by anything but skills of both fighters.

Sam Stout $2.05 vs

I was super letdown by these odds. I was hoping Stout would get the edge as a UFC vet over a relatively unknown Strikeforce fighter making his debut. Not the case. Stout didn’t impress me against Makdessi, which is an understatement. His inability to change things up and make adjustments were his ultimate downfall. I think I mentioned this in my breakdown, but incase I cut it out- I think Stout does better against grapplers who he can force into a striking based fight then against fighters who will gladly oblige him and trade punches. Fodor is the latter. With Fodor he is aggressive and in your face and that could be a problem for Stout who doesn’t do well when he is going backwards. I like Fodor, I would have liked him more as a dog or closer to even at least. I will be using him in my parlays, but I think Stout might be worth a look for a small single play. Fodor is debuting and has been out for a almost a year while Stout’s back in against the wall with the inflated rosters and another defeat dropping him to 1-3 in is last 4. Another potential for this fight is a FOTN bet with Stout owning 5 of these awards and Fodor fighting in manner that is almost always exciting.

Matt Grice $4.18 vs Dennis Bermudez $1.25

Bermudez has looked like a tank in pretty much all of his fights in the UFC and on the the reality show, but in each bout, even the short ones, he seems to get hurt to some degree. That is a major concern, especially if it happens again and he can’t rebound to put Matt Grice away. I think back to the Hominick/ Yagin fight that had similar odds where Hominick was carrying the bulk of the action, but Yagin scored the most significant of the damage with knockdowns in the first two rounds and won a decision as a result. Bermudez doesn’t offer a lot in the way of betting odds sitting around $1.25 and some sites have him lower. This is one of those fights that might be worth passing on ( I seem to be saying that a lot lately) if you are leaning towards the fav. I think Grice’s ability to win this fight is being undervalued here so at anything above $4.00 he might be worth a shot. For Bermudez if you can find a prop with him winning inside the distance at over $1.60 then you might have a playable bet otherwise I will most likely limit him to a minor role on parlayMichael Chiesa $1.48 vs Anton Kuivanen $2.65

These odds have been on the move since they were posted with Chiesa starting to creep up. I hope he gets somwhere around the $1.55 range because there is a lack of solid favs at a decent price on this card. I went back and forth on this fight. Kuivanen is improving, but he has had trouble with the grappling attack of both his opponents. Looking at Kuivanen’s two previous opponents I would rank Chiesa’s wrestling ability somwhere between Salas and Clarke and his submission skills above both. If Kuivanen can keep this fight standing then he has a great chance to win, but that is a big if. My suggestion would be to use Chiesa in a parlay or two, but Kuivanen is tempting and consider the rash of prelim upsets over the last two shows he might be worth a play. See the Non-winner’s list for more details.

Brendan Schaub $1.83 vs

Chin vs submission defense- which will give out first. If Lavar can cut off the cage and start unloading on Schaub, he wins. If Schaub can shoot on Johnson and take him off his feet then most likely he wins. Everyone is jumping on the “Schaub has no chin train” and as a result the line is changing. The first number I saw on Lavar was $2.26, then he moved to $2.11 and now $1.91. If you are on Johnson then get on him down and make your bet before he goes too much lower and the opposite for Schaub. Johnson’s knockout power and wins over Barry & Beltran are the type of fights that people remember and coupled with Schaub’s recent knockouts, it is easy to see why people would back Johnson. What they don’t remember is how easily Struve tapped him, along with Jordan and Del Rosario and then how Barry who is far from a known ground fighter owned him early on. Schaub isn’t known for his grappling prowess, but the tools are there and he has stated that he intends to use them. I just read about Jon Fitch getting cut while I was writing this and that is complete bullshit on the UFC’s part, along with a few other cuts. The reason I bring this up is that a guy like Schaub who has had a few recent setbacks will look at that news and realize he needs to win this fight at all costs. Normally he might consider testing himself by standing and trading with Johnson and then shooting if things go south, but now I fully expect to see him shoot ASAP. As I already mentioned wait on Schaub, he could get close to even and might be the dog if enough people back Lavar by bell time. The Public Picks sections currently has 55% of people on Schaub and if this number holds true when the majority of bettors start investing the line will move closer together. The chin makes it a risk, but I would consider a decent single bet on Schaub along with using him in a parlay or two. There is also a prop bet for this fight that I really like, check the prop section.

Josh Koscheck $1.23 vs Robbie Lawler $4.35

Main card prediction time and for the most part the fighters I predicted from this point on are really getting me too excited about the betting possibilities. Koscheck is a wrestler and Lawler has had trouble with wrestlers/grapplers. Koscheck needs to forget about his average striking and go back to what brought him to the dance. Kos has been KOed before and by a guy not known for having knockout power, which Lawler is known for. If Robbie puts one on Koscheck’s chin he, like many before him will go night night. The same was said for Paul Daley when he fought Kos and we all remember how that one turned out. I think Kos will use his wrestling smartly and grind out a win against a dangerous striker. He may look for a late submission, but if Lawler was able to survive Kennedy on the ground he should do enough against Kos. With limit big dollar options on the main card I will consider using Kos in a parlay, but I will also look into playing a prop bet of Lawler/ Koscheck Over 2.5. Is Robbie worth a bet at $4.00+? I would say beyond a puncher’s chance he really isn’t worth your money.

Court McGee $1.36 vs Josh Neer $3.22

Neer is probably on his last legs and with a third straight loss he is going to be unemployed. A long career of hard nosed fighting appears to be catching up to him with with back to back first round finishes. McGee is making the cut to WW which adds a little bit of the unknown into this fight, but I would postulate that he will do it right and the cut will go well. These things can be difficult to predict, but I didn’t do a bad job anticipating how the Nedkov cut would go. If Neer can make this a brawl he might be able to hurt McGee and finish him but considering that 185ers weren’t able to do it, I don’t think a guy that spent some time at 155 will have much success either. McGee has more tools then Neer and knows how to use them. Neer is too offensive minded and I would expect that this will lead to McGee countering him and landing TDs when he sees fit to do so. At $1.36 Court is the second best paying fav on the main card and I intend to use him in the parlays, maybe double him up with Schaub or Fodor to get close to $2.00. For Neer I will pass, I just don’t see him as a viable investment after his last two performances.

Urijah Faber $1.28 vs Ivan Menjivar $4.10

Faber has been in this scenario multiple times before. Coming off a title fight defeat and looking to start his climb back into relevancy. So far in a fight after failing to win/ retain a title he has smashed each of his opponents or more specifically submitted them. His speed, strength, unorthodox striking, and wrestling skills make him a handful for pretty much anyone in the division not named Barao or Cruz. Menjivar has skills, but the manner in which Easton was able to bullying him and really nullify his offensive output is concerning. The broken record continues; Faber doesn’t offer much in the way of a straight up bet. I do think he wins this one so I will use him at least once in a parlay, but I have eyes on a prop of either Faber winning by submission or the fight going under 2.5 rounds which might have some above $2.00 potential.

Lyoto Machida $1.47 vs Dan Henderson $2.90

Has time caught up with Henderson? Could Lyoto dispatch him just like he did Randy? If Henderson wins this fight he should be given the next crack at the title, no questions asked. Beating Sobral, Feijao, Fedor, Shogun, and then Machida is a pretty decent list of names and should warrant a title shot. Henderson has to close the distance in this fight and do it without being countered. If he can’t get in range Machida and give Machida a reason to fear his striking he will get picked apart from the outside. I don’t think that Machida gets enough credit for the display that he put on against Bader. He thoroughly frustrated Bader with his distance fighting and when Bader couldn’t take it anymore he rushed in and Machida countered. It was perfect. I think he will do something similar here, but the difference is Henderson won’t recklessly charge forward. Machida will land and do damage while Dan plods forward looking to land his right hand and continually coming up empty when he tries. I like a bet on Machida here straight up, but even more so I really like Machida by decision. So far I have seen it paying out at $2.09 on a couple of different sites and that is some solid value. Henderson is a tough guy to finish, he has never been knocked out and unless he gasses badly I don’t see Machida picking up the submission win. This might be the first prop bet to make it onto my value list. For Henderson I haven’t made my non-winners list as of writing this, but he is a candidate. He just keeps defying the odds.

Ronda Rousey (C) $1.10 vs Liz Carmouche $9.00

This is a flat out no play for me as far as taking Rousey straight up. Even playing her by submission has next to no return at $1.19 and dropping. The Under 1.5 rounds could be an options some sites have Rousey to win inside the first round at $1.33 so I think the Under 1.5 play will be around $1.25. One option I might consider taking a shot at is Rousey by TKO/KO which currently sits around $13.50. It is a long shot, but the risk is minimal for a low return. She may be looking to show she has more then just submission skills and top control with unrelenting GnP would do just that. Just a thought. For Carmouche, if Tate and Kaufman were unable to withstand Rousey’s judo I don’t see her being worth a play even at the lofty price most sites have her at.


Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Ronda Rousey $1.10

2. Urijah Faber $1.28

3. Lyoto Machida $1.47

4. Josh Koscheck $1.23

5. Court McGee $1.36

====================

6. Brendan Schaub $1.83

7. Dennis Bermudez $1.25

8.

9. Kenny Robertson $2.56

10. Neil Magny $1.67

11. Michael Chiesa $1.48

12. Yuri Villefort $1.92

-Purchase the $5 Bet Pack to get my rankings for the entire event + my non-predicted Top 5 Value Plays


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Lyoto Machida by Decision $2.09 These two have been finished a combined 5 times in 59 fights. Machida has gone the distance 10 times (9-1 record) in 22 bouts and Henderson has done the same 19 times (14-5 record) in 37 fights.
2. Brendan Schaub $1.83 People are overlooking Johnson’s brutal grappling defense and Schaub should be able to exploit it either through submission or by killing Lavar’s cardio which will significant reduce the threat of getting knocked out. This line is moving and could see Schaub as the dog by bell time.
3. Kenny Robertson $2.56 I don’t see any reason for Jardine to be this big of a fav and Robertson is better then what he we have seen from him so far. I’ll take a shot with this play.
4. $1.74 This number has started to move and could get even better. The betting public knows who Sam Stout, but most aren’t familiar with Fodor and people tend to bet on who they know. Keep an eye on this one.
5. Yuri Villefort $1.92 Two young fighters most likely fighting to keep a roster spot, Villefort has more tools and should be able to do damage either on the ground or on the feet.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. Matt Grice $4.18 Grice comes from a pretty impressive wrestling background and so far Bermudez has been able to dominate his opponents on the ground, but that might not be the case here. Bermudez also tends to get hurt in fights and that could prove costly. Too much value here not to take a chance.
2. Anton Kuivanen $2.65 If Kuivanen has cleaned up his TDD issues then he has all the tools to win this fight.
3. Dan Henderson $2.90 Dan has been the underdog so many times before and won. Most notably taking out Fedor and Shogun. I still feel confident that Lyoto wins this but Henderson might be worth a small backup play just in case.
4. No Play
5. No Play

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.


Prop Bets-

Sam Stout/ Caros Fodor Total Rounds Over 2.5This pick is totally on Sam Stout. He has only a single knockout in his UFC career and he is incredibly tough to finish no matter where you try to do it. Fodor has knockout power and submission skills, but Sam has faced guys that were a bigger threat on the mat and if he can survive a bomb from Jeremy Stephens he should be okay here. Play the Over.

Lavar Johnson/ Brendan Schaub Total Rounds Under 1.5– Not a lot of explanation needed here. Both guys have the ability to finish on the feet, Schaub’s chin is vulnerable, and Johnson is so weak on the ground that Schaub should be able to tap him out if he can take him down. If Schaub can’t finish on the mat he could take Lavar’s cardio away and finish him early in round 2. Play the Under.

Robbie Lawler/ Josh Koscheck Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.83– I see this fight playing out similar to the Daley/Koscheck and Lawler/Kennedy fights. Lawler will do enough to avoid getting submitted and Koscheck will work his wrestling to avoid getting knocked out and force this fight into the later stages. Play the Over.

Urijah Faber to Wn by Submission $5.15Faber has lost 6 times in his career, with the most recent being his loss to Renan Barao that he is coming off of heading into this fight. In his last 5 rebound fights he has submitted all of his opponents with the notable victims including Raphael Assuncao, Takeya Mizugaki, and Brian Bowles. Menjivar has only been submitted once in his career, but Assuncao, Mizugaki, and Bowles have lost by submission a combined 3 times in a combined 59 career fights- all to Faber. These odds are too good to pass up.

Lyoto Machida to Win By Decision $2.09I already touched upon this bet in the breakdown and feel very confident that it will come through. Machida knows the danger of spending too much time in Henderson’s range and will do his best to avoid it with a lot of movement. Both guys have finishing power but Lyoto elusive style and Dan’s chin should make this fight a candidate to go the distance. These two have been finished a combined 5 times in 59 fights. Machida has gone the distance 10 times (9-1 record) in 22 bouts and Henderson has done the same 19 times (14-5 record) in 37 fights.

Lyoto Machida/ Dan Henderson Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.63See Above.

Ronda Rousey Wins in Round 1 $1.33Not a lot of betting options with this fight but this one stands out to me as the most viable with the best price. I did mention Rousey by TKO paying over $13 in the breakdown as worth a small play, but I won’t include it here as an official play.