UFC 155 Post Fight Results & Bet Pack

Josh Harper

UFC 155 was a fantastic end to 2012 for the Ultimate Fighting Championship that saw back and forth battles between many top contenders. Almost 12,500 people were in attendance that brought in a total gate of 3.3 million dollars. Fight of the night went to Jim Miller and Joe Lauzon, KO of the night went to Todd Duffee, and submission of the night went to John Moraga. All four fighters received $65,000 in bonus money for putting on a great show.

Facebook Prelims

125lbs – Chris Cariaso (4-1 UFC) vs. John Moraga (1-0 UFC) – Moraga via submission
Cariaso was able to make it a fight on the feet, but Moraga used his strong wrestling to get multiple takedowns and eventually lock in a guillotine choke in the 3rd round.

265lbs – Phil De Fries (2-1 UFC) vs. Todd Duffee (1-1 UFC) – Duffee via KO
Duffee pretty much had De Fries for dinner on Saturday night, and never let De Fries use his BJJ by keeping the fight standing and KO’ing him just 2 minutes into the 1st round.

145lbs – Leonard Garcia (2-5 UFC) vs. Max Holloway (2-1 UFC) – Holloway via U. decision
Garcia was able to land more strikes than Holloway, but Holloway was able to drop Garcia with a punch and he used his kicks to beat Garcia on the scorecards.

FX Prelims

155lbs – Michael Johnson (4-2 UFC) vs. Myles Jury (1-0 UFC) – Jury via U. decision
Jury completed dominated Johnson on the feet with great foot movement and striking, and when he decided to take him down he did just that working from position to position and landing punches.

155lbs – Melvin Guillard (11-7 UFC) vs. Jamie Varner (2-2 UFC) – Varner via S. decision
Varner pushed the pace the whole fight with punches and takedowns, while Guillard was really only able to land kicks and stuff a few takedowns. Varner should have won a unanimous decision.

135lbs – Byron Bloodworth (0-1 UFC) vs. Erik Perez (2-0 UFC) – Perez via TKO
Bloodworth looked good on the feet but Perez quickly worked for a takedown and once he got him down he got to a dominant position and finished Bloodworth with ground and pound in round 1.

135lbs – Brad Pickett (2-1 UFC) vs. Eddie Wineland (1-2 UFC) – Wineland via S. decision
Wineland used straight punches to pick apart the wild punching style of Pickett. Both fighters were able to land good power shots but Wineland clearly landed more effective punches throughout the fight.

Main Card

185lbs – Chris Leben (12-7 UFC) vs. Derek Brunson (0-0 UFC) – Brunson via U. decision
Leben was able to stuff some takedowns and make this a fight by staying in the pocket, but Brunson stayed out of range and used his wrestling to get a unanimous decision in his UFC debut.

185lbs – Alan Belcher (9-4 UFC) vs. Yushin Okami (11-4 UFC) – Okami via U. decision
Okami never let Belcher really get off many punches and kicks by clinching up with him and working for trip takedowns. Belcher reversed a couple of Okami’s takedowns but couldn’t keep top control for long.

185lbs – Tim Boetsch (7-3 UFC) vs. Costa Philippou (4-1 UFC) – Philippou via TKO
Boetsch couldn’t overcome a broken hand and a bad cut to beat Philippou. Philippou was able to keep the fight standing long enough to land his power punches and finish off Boetsch in the 3rd round.

155lbs – Joe Lauzon (9-4 UFC) vs. Jim Miller (10-3 UFC) – Miller via U. decision
Lauzon wasn’t able to submit Miller or do enough on the feet to win this fight. Lauzon did continue to walk forward showing his toughness but Miller did a great job of countering the entire fight.

265lbs – Junior Dos Santos (9-0 UFC) vs. Cain Velasquez (8-1 UFC) – Velasquez via U. decision
Velasquez showed no regard for Dos Santos’s power in this fight and walked him down for 5 rounds. Velasquez took Dos Santos down with punches and takedowns multiple times never allowing the Dos Santos to get comfortable with his striking. Dos Santos got a second wind late in the fight and stuffed some takedowns but Velasquez showed his dominance and took back his Heavyweight Championship.


UFC 155 $10 Bet Pack


Parlay Doubles

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Chris Leben $1.71
Selection 2: Eddie Wineland $1.95
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Price: $3.33
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Chris Cariaso $2.64
Selection 2: Costantinos Philippou $1.83
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Price: $4.83

Parlay Triples

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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Eddie Wineland $1.95
Selection 2: Junior dos Santos $1.56
Selection 3: Max Holloway $1.36
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Price: $4.14

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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Todd Duffee $1.38
Selection 2: Jamie Varner $2.13
Selection 3: Yushin Okami $1.83
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Price: $5.38

Parlay Double-Doubles

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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Todd Duffee $1.38
Selection 2: Junior dos Santos $1.56
Selection 3: Max Holloway $1.36
Selection 4: Chris Leben $1.71
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Price: $5.01
 
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Parlay #6
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Selection 1: Yushin Okami $1.83
Selection 2: Costantinos Philippou $1.83
Selection 3: Junior dos Santos $1.56
Selection 4: Eddie Wineland $1.95
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Price: $10.19
 

Big Parlay (I couldn’t come up with a name for this one)

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Parlay #7
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Selection 1: Junior dos Santos $1.56
Selection 2: Todd Duffee $1.38
Selection 3: Max Holloway $1.36
Selection 4: Chris Leben $1.71
Selection 5: Yushin Okami $1.83
Selection 6: Costantinos Philippou $1.83
Selection 7: Jim Miller $1.50
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Price: $25.15

A Puncher’s Chance

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Parlay #8
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Selection 1: Junior dos Santos $1.56
Selection 2: Chris Leben $1.71
Selection 3: Yushin Okami $1.83
Selection 4: Costantinos Philippou $1.83
Selection 5: Eddie Wineland $1.95
Selection 6: Chris Cariaso $2.64
Selection 7: Jamie Varner $2.13
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Price: $97.96
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

John Moraga $1.55 vs Chris Cariaso $2.64

Chris Cariaso gets absolutely no respect. He has fought Renan Barao, Michael McDonald and Takeya Mizugaki all in a division where he is at a severe physical disadvantage. He did get submitted by Barao, lost a close short notice split decision with McDonald, won a close fight against Mizugaki, and is 4-1 in the UFC but he is still the underdog against a guy who has fought then then a round total with the company. Moraga did look impressive, but as I mentioned he did it against a guy that was also making his debut and doing it on short notice, so those factor could have played a role in Gomez’s performance or lack there off. The biggest concern here is Moraga’s wrestling, Cariaso seems to have issues getting taken down, but he is also quite good at limiting his opponent’s offense from the position and getting back up ASAP. Cariaso is a veteran with a tonne of top level experience and Moraga has a great record but the majority of his wins have come over low level guys. For $2.64 or anything above $1.75 I am excited about Cariaso’s value and want to smash the odd’s makers for this line. I am not saying that Cariaso is a lock to win, but he shouldn’t be this big of a dog based on what we saw of Moraga so far. There are a tonne of decent paying fighters on this card so my plan will be to limit by big individual bets and instead make a few more mid-range plays and this is one of them. I will also be working Cariaso into a couple of parlays, but not all of them I hate scrambling to the computer to redo a bet after an early fight goes bad. For Moraga he is a no play as a favourite; second UFC fight (he was a dog in the first one) and he is taking on a solid vet I can’t invest at such a low price.

Todd Duffee $1.38 vs Philip De Fries $3.00

I do expect Duffee to win this fight by coming out and landing a big combination on De Fries’s chin and putting him away during the aftermath. I did rank him #2 on the Confidence list, but I wish he had put together a few more fights in his time away from the company. Duffee needs to pace himself here to avoid a) gassing himself out and b) getting too aggressive leading to either a takedown or him potentially getting clipped and hurt. De Fries does have skills, but he needs to get this bout to the mat to prove them. He is 2-1 in the UFC, but both of his wins have come against his countrymen who were promoted from the local circuit just like he was, so until he beats an established UFC roster fighter it is hard to back him/ invest in him. My suggestion here is to include Duffee in your parlays, most not all, but leave him out of the single betting as there are plenty of better paying options.

Leonard Garcia $3.15 vs Max Holloway $1.36

Bad fight for Leonard Garcia, bad, bad, b-rutal! Garcia is a brawler and despite the best efforts of Gregory Jackson to put a a bow and new coat of paint on him and turn Leo into a technical striker it isn’t working. Garcia tries hard to refrain, but always ends up throwing big bombs that do almost nothing but cool down the people in the front row. There should also be an over/under on the number of times Joe will try to convince us that Garcia has devastating power and just needs to land once. But the stats prove….no, the stats scream otherwise Fear Factor. Holloway took this fight on short notice after Cody McKenzie dropped out and the McKenzie/Garcia version of this bout was almost a sure fire pink slip bowl- win and you’re still in. Leonard should have turned and ran when he was offered this fight, but for reasons based on money, not wanting to get pulled from the card, Dana White pressuring fighters to take fights, or probably all of the above he didn’t. Holloway is the polar opposite of Garcia- technical striker that picks his shots and finishes when he gets the chance. Garcia does have an edge on the ground, but it has been so long since he has actually gone on the offensive with his grappling skills it is hard t consider it a threat. Back when Cung Le fought Patrick Cote I suggested Le would try to mix things up a little and look for a TD in that fight and I actually think Garcia will do the same, most likely to no avail. The long and short of it is that Holloway wins this fight, I would suggest doubling Holloway up with JDS for a mini parlay. Another option would be to consider taking Max by TKO/KO if the money is right. Leonard has never been KOed and if the prop pays over $2.00 give it a shot as if/when Garcia gets tired Max will press the action and I could could see a series of body shots doubling Garcia over leading to the eventual stoppage.

Myles Jury $2.70 vs Michael Johnson $1.45

This fight has me perplexed, so much so that I just went and reconfigured my Confidence rankings. Johnson has shown a tonne of improvement and based on all of the footage he is the better fighter….but! There is a big element of unknown here…what has Jury done since the finale to improve himself? He hasn’t fought in almost 7 months and that is a lot of time to improve and expand a fighter’s skills. Jury is a well rounded fighter, he seems like the type that will continue to improve and he already has such a good foundation to build upon. For Johnson he look great against Tony Ferguson, but his submission issues and getting hurt by Danny Castillo are weighing heavy on my mind, not so much that I picked against him but enough to consider not betting him or at least not betting a lot on him. As of right now the betting public (in the new section of my site, please vote) is 89% in favour of MJ and is a little bit concerning whenever the public gets behind a fighter so drastically in a match-up that should be closer then at least these numbers indicate. For me I will probably add MJ on a parlay, but I will limit my overall investments on him. I just realized that Myle Jury could also be MJ, but all of the MJs I have been using refer to Johnson. For Jury, a small play might be warranted but only if you have the extra bankroll as it is more of a bet on what if then what is (as of right now).

Byron Bloodworth $3.80 vs Erik Perez $1.27

This fight is No Play for me. Yes Perez has looked much better in the UFC. Yes Bloodworth got smashed in his debut. Yes Bloodworth hasn’t fought in 14 months. Yes I picked Perez to win, but Perez is too big a favorite here and there are too many little red flags with this fight. Want to hear them….

  • Perez is 2-0, but hasn’t even spent a full round in the cage in his combined fights so for the most part he is unproven.
  • He was in major trouble early against John Albert and although he won the fight he was aided by a poor choice on the refs part.
  • He smoked Kenny Stone in record fashion, but Stone is chinny and it was exposed during the one and only exchange that took place. To me it looked like Perez landed a lucky punch more then something he had planned.
  • Perez is young. Young guys that have success early can believe the hype and fight as if winning is a forgone conclusion.
  • For Bloodworth he made his debut on one week’s notice and as I mentioned in the breakdown his wife was due to go into labour at any minute so taking this fight was most likely to make som extra cash for the baby and with all that goes on leading up to having a kid how much prep and focus did he really have for the fight?
  • A short notice fight, UFC debut, and impending fatherhood all most certainly impacted his in cage performance.
  • Additionally he was fighting Mike Easton, who was the hometown favourite, and Easton is a tough guy for most to deal with under normal circumstances.
  • There is limited footage of Byron pre-UFC which makes it hard to determine what he is actually capable of.
  • Having watched his bout with Easton about half a dozen times now I was impressed with the way he moved, the way he attacked, and although he needed to be more aggressive a few tweaks and fighting under better conditions could really do wonders for this kid.
  • Bloodworth has been out of action for 14….this could be good or this could be bad. Time away brings ring rust, but a fighter can make drastic improvements in that time too.
  • Most people are bashing this fight saying Perez is 2-0 and Bloodoworth is not on his level and this may be the case, but I am not one to overlook that fact that the UFC also has these numbers and still put this fight together.
  • 79% of the Public are on Perez and most outside sources, again like I mentioned above are totally writing off Bloodoworth.
  • Bloodworth is an awesome name for an MMA fighter- okay not this one.

In the end there are too many issues, unknowns, and question marks for me to invest in Perez as the biggest fav on the card so I will just pass. For Bloodworth, again a lot of unknowns but at least he has value on his side.

Jamie Varner $2.13 vs Melvin Guillard $1.79

This could be one of the best fights of the night and has potential to win anyone of the Sub, KO, or Fight of the Night awards. Guillard was close to contention and then hit a wall with his ugly submission problems coming back to bite him on the backside.Varner, a former WEC champ, seems to have regained his form and has pulled off a huge upset and been part of one of the best fights of the year against Joe Lauzon since coming back to the UFC. Guillard seemed to turn a corner when he joined Jackson’s and he has subsequently gone back around that corner once he left. I am a fan of both guys, but I think the deciding factors will be a mental lapse on the part of Guillard and the the power double/ wrestling of Varner. Guillard is a great striker with ridiculous power but his concern with being taken down stunts his abilities on the feet and he really hasn’t been the same since the Lauzon fight. Varner has decent striking of his own with 9 knockouts and I really like the way he works the body and then follows with a big overhand right. Guillard’s chin is a question mark- see the Lauzon and Cerrone fights for proof. Even if Melvin can keep this fight standing I still prefer what Varner brings with his power and diversity. Both guys have a tendency to slowdown late in fights, but I don’t think this one is going the distance. I would suggest using Varner for mid size bet where he pays anything over $2.00. The odds are moving so don’t wait and if you want to bet on Guillard, which he does have potential especially if he connects with a big shot, shop around and find the best price.

Eddie Wineland $1.95 vs Brad Pickett $1.80

Wineland got a raw deal to start his UFC career as I think that the UFC was using him to set up Faber for a title shot and really were holding their breath early when Wineland was shutting down Faber’s wrestling. Both guys are good strikers; Eddie is more technical and Pickett likes to brawl but will also use good movement and isn’t too wild. I think that Wineland’s technical style should be enough to keep Pickett on the outside and do more damage forcing the Brit to look for takedowns. Pickett is a much more successful when he is able to get his ground game going; 3-0 in fights where he has the takedown edge and 2-2 in fights that he does not. Wineland has done far better against far better wrestlers then Pickett so I expect that Wineland is going to win or at least successfully defend in the grappling exchanges. Pickett does have ‘one punch’ knockout power and the skills to connect, but the only KO/TKO defeat of Eddie’s career came via injury so he is a tough one to knockout. The other big issues for Wineland is hesitation. Against Benavidez, he was the better striker but wasn’t willing to pull the trigger and attack. If he holds back against Pickett it will be a rough fight for him. The confidence that he should have coming off of becoming the first man to stop Scott Jorgensen, something neither Cruz or Barao could do, should lead him to an even stronger performance here. I like the value in Wineland and expected him to be a slight dog and he may even drift above the $2.00 mark which would be great. I would suggest a mid-range bet on Wineland, like I will do for most of the fighters around the $2.00 mark on this card, along with spreading him out in your parlays. For Pickett, I like him as a fighter but I feel this is a one or the other scenario as far as where to invest and based on the research I am backing Eddie Wineland here.

Derek Brunson $2.10 vs Chris Leben $1.71

My original pick for this fight was Vemola to beat Leben using his wrestling, but when Brunson took Vemola’s spot I immediately flipped back to the the Crippler. Brunson is green, he has raw talent, but for the most part he has a lot of developing still to do if he intends to stick around at this level. The manner in which he got totally annihilated by Jacare, a man who had no previous wins by knockout is a huge area of concern. Could Brunson come out and win the fight with his wrestling? Maybe. Leben is pretty solid as far as grappling defense is concerned and if you look back at the Munoz fight, Leben was giving him all he could handle. I actually don’t think this bout is going to spend much time on the ground as Leben should be able to land some big shot early, back Brunson off, and eventually finish him. Sure Leben’s layoff could be a factor, but if you figure in that Brunson is fighting on short notice, making his UFC debut, and coming off being finished for the first time in his career I think it all evens out. Leben is a veteran with a tonne of experience fighting grapplers; Mark Munoz, Yoshihiro Akiyama, Aaron Simpson, Jake Rosholt, and Jason MacDonald and although he has won some and lost some it is the experience he gained that should help him versus Brunson. I was a little shocked when these odds came out and will be putting a decent size bet down on Leben. It is risky as sometimes you wonder where Chris’s head is at, but I think this is a perfect return fight for him. For Brunson, it is shocking that of all the new Strikeforce fighters heading to the UFC he will be the first to appear on an PPV, but at $2.10 or anything below $2.75 I will be passing.

Alan Belcher $1.91 vs Yushin Okami $1.83

A rematch, but this one is a number of years in the making with a lot of time and fights between, so is their first meeting still relevant? Okami won the first one on the basis of his wrestling and Belcher’s inability to keep the fight standing. With that information in mind and then looking at how things have gone since I came to a pair of conclusions. Belcher still seems to have trouble defending the takedown. Since the Okami fight where he was taken down 5 times multiple opponent’s have had similar success; Ed Herman 5 TDs, Denis Kang 3 TDs, Yoshihiro Akiyama 3 TDS, Patrick Cote 2 TDs, and Rousimar Palhares 1 TD. I know, some of you might have looked at that and said those numbers are going down and be won most of thse fights, he must be getting better and that is partially the case, but it is clear Belcher can still be taken off his feet with regularity. Yushin Okami on the other hand is a Black Belt in Judo and since the Belcher fight has trained and drastically improved his wrestling along side of Chael Sonnen. That is really what a rematch prediction comes down to….who has improved the most and is there any cause to go against the results of the first one. Belcher turned a lot of heads when he survived on the mat with Palhares and it was impressive. Keep in mind though the difference between what Rousimar and Okami was/ is looking to do. Palhares sold on for a leg based submission which can leave you vulnerable and if defended (as was the case) can result in a bad position afterwards. Okami wont be looking for a submission, he will be focused on maintaining top control, doing damage, and limiting Belcher’s space to escape. If Belcher can’t remain vertical he will be force to fight off of his back for long durations of this bout and the cases are far and few between where a fighter was able to win a bout from this position without pulling off the sub. If you compare the big name opposition that these two have faced since they met it is a huge edge to Okami: Okami- Swick, Franklin, Sonnen, Munoz, Marquardt, Silva, & Boetsch and Belcher- Herman, Akiyama, and Palhares. Also since that first fight Okami has improved his boxing significantly and even though Belcher and his Muay Thai still have the edge, I think the gap has been closed. Finally, there is an advantage for a fighter knowing he already holds a win over an upcoming opponent and this should give Okami confidence heading into the fight. The price is right for both guys and like I said in the Wineland/Pickett breakdown it is one or the other and based on my research I am going with Okami for a mid-range bet and for use scattered through out the parlays.

Costantinos Philippou $1.83 vs Tim Boetsch $1.91

I don’t know if Tim Boetsch looks at the betting odds, but the guy must have thrown his arms up in the air and wondered what he has to do to get a little respect. He is coming off a win over former Bellator champ Hector Lombard and prior to that he defeated past title challenger Yushin Okami and yet at best he is sitting at even against an injury replacement opponent. Yes the Lombard fight was contr0versial and he clearly lost the opening two rounds against Okami, but the bottom line is he won both fights and is 4-0 at 185 but is still not the clear favourite. The other option is Philippou is no slouch and in spite of who Boetsch has beaten I have this fight being fairly close so these odds make sense to me. I expect we potentially could go to the judges not sure who won and end up with a split decision. Philippou has excellent boxing skills, big time power, and fantastic takedown defence while Boetsch is incredibly strong, also has knockout power, comes from a wrestling background, and has a serviceable arsenal of kicks to attack with. The areas I looked at that could decide this fight were a) how much Boetsch struggled with the boxing/ combinations of Okami, something that Costa will replicate and b) how effective Costa has been at defending takedowns against some pretty decent grapplers like Court McGee and Riki Fukuda. I expect that Boetsch could score a takedown in this fight ending Costa’s streak of 17 straight successful takedown defenses, but in the end Costa should be able to shut down the majority of attempts with his strong base and effective use of underhooks. As far as betting is concerned it is rinse and repeat: a mid-range bet on Costa and use him throughout your parlays. I know I said this fight could be close which would mean making a bet on Boetsch would be an alright play, but again take one or the other here, not both. Take into consideration that Boetsch had a poor showing against Lombard despite the win, was dominated in 2 of 3 rounds versus Okami, and lost round 1 against Nick Ring. Despite winning all 3, Boetsch has looked far from unbeatabable.

Jim Miller $1.50 vs Joe Lauzon $2.60

I was really going back and forth on this fight. Miller is good fighter but clearly has a ceiling with defeats against Henderson, Edgar, Maynard, and Diaz. Lauzon is a killer, but up until his last fight he appeared to have a performance drop off point somewhere between the end of round 1 and the midway mark of round 2. Against Varner it looked like he had overcome the conditioning issues that had plagued him for so long and he was able to put Jamie away in the third. If Lauzon had done this again, against another opponent since the Varner fight then I could very well be taking him in this bout, but he hasn’t so I am not. I would like to see this happen more then once before I start becoming a believer as there is way too many fights that saw Joe gas out and way too few where he didn’t. Lauzon did look good, didn’t gas like we have become accustom to and put on a solid performance against a tough adversary. But Varner was pretty tired too and that most likely helped Lauzon in the later stages of the fight. Miller has the skills to push Lauzon and wear him down over a three round fight and he also has the ability to finish him. Jamie Varner had a lot of success early against Joe and if Miller can replicate that over a longer period of time then this is his fight to win. I fully expect that Jimmy is going to come out motivate after getting finished for the first time in his career and he should recognize his spot in the division is at risk here. I would suggest using Miller in your parlays, not all of them but work him into about 30-40% of them and at the same time a single bet on Lauzon makes sense as he has a decent return at anything over $2.35. If you would rather not pick a winner in this fight and would like to have the finishing abilities of both men on your side play the over/ under of 2.5 rounds and if your book has it set at 1.5 it is still worth a look.

Cain Velasquez $2.50 vs Junior dos Santos $1.56

The rematch is upon us and I for one look forward to it now that it is made, but wish they had elected to go another way. Cain is in a tough spot if he drops this fight because he won’t be able to get another title shot as long as JDS is the champ. I think Fabricio Werdum would have been a nice opponent for JDS ( I bet on JDS in their first fight) and let Cain fight at least once more maybe against someone like Roy Nelson or Frank Mir before getting another shot at the title. Either way, we have what we have so lets make some money. I picked Cain in the first fight and was wrong, yes he was injured, but in all reality I don’t see a healthy Cain beating JDS this time around as I totally undervalued Junior’s TDD and overvalued Cain’s use of leg kicks. Cain needs to get this fight to the ground there is no two ways about it and if he can’t if he will be in trouble. Junior has fantastic TDD once his opponent gets a hold of him, but getting a hold of Junior is tough, and then actually keeping him down for any length of time is another story all together. I felt that Cain’s leg kicks would be a difference maker helping to slow Junior down, potentially making him more vulnerable to the takedowns, but at the least taking some bounce out of his step. After reviewing Velasquez/ JDS 1 and Mir/JDS I saw an interesting pattern where Junior was willing to let his opponent throw low kicks in order to set up a counter right hand. He landed it a couple of times against both Mir and Cain, and the final blow that put Frank on his backside was a right hand landing after Frank and score with a low kick. What this does it turns the leg kick, something that needs to land with regularity, into an opening for JDS’s big overhand right which may only need to land once- not a good exchange if you ask me. I expect a more competitive fight and it to last longer, but in the end the champ is getting his hand raised. For betting purposes I like that JDS is floating around the $1.50 area, every site that I checked have him between $1.49 and as of writing this $1.54 except sportsinteraction where he is $1.43. When I questioned them on this they said that because they are a smaller book they can’t always offer the larger numbers like other sites can. Either way, I advocate a large bet on Junior all by himself, along with using him in the majority of your parlays. I just think this is a bad fight for Cain, he might be the second best HW in the world today, but Junior is #1.,

On a side note- as far as future challengers for JDS; if Overeem beats Bigfoot and he gets the next shot for sure. After that there are two options depending on the timeline. If Werdum beats Nog after TUF Brazil II I think he could be the next challenger and if things don’t line up just right I would like to see Daniel Cormier (just officially signed with the UFC) get a shot at the title for his first fight and that should cover all of 2013.

 


Top 5 Confidence Bets (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Max Holloway $1.36

2. Todd Duffee $1.38

3. Junior dos Santos $1.56

4. Costantinos Philippou $1.83

5. Chris Leben $1.71

-Purchase the $5 Bet Pack to get my rankings for the entire event + my non-predicted Top 5 Value Plays


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

1. Chris Cariaso $2.64

2. Eddie Wineland $1.95

3. Costantinos Philippou $1.83

4. Yushin Okami $1.83

5. Chris Leben $1.71

* Jamie Varner is also a decent underdog play, but Leben gets the nod here at anything over $1.60. Brunson’s issue with leaving his chin exposed against a power puncher like Leben is too good to pass up at this price.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Prop Bets-

Max Holloway to Win by KO/TKO/DQ– I know a lot of books don’t offer this type of prop for prelim fights but if yours does please make a bet on it. Garcia has never been KOed so there should be some value there and I really how Max attacks with body shots and Phan had a tonne of success with them against Garcia.

Chris Cariaso/ John Moraga total rounds over 2.5– I think this number should have some decent value with Moraga making quick work of Gomez in his debut. In 12 career fights Moraga has gone to decision 5 times and has never been finished while Cariaso has gone to the cards 13 times in 17 fights and only been finished twice (once early in his career and once by Renan Barao). Additionally Cariaso isn’t really a finisher with only 4 finishes in 14 career wins. Play the over.

Todd Duffee/ Phil De Fries total rounds over 1.5 or 2.5With this being a Heavyweight bout this number will most likely be set at 1.5. I expect that Duffee should be able to put De Fries away in similar fashion to what Stipe Miocic did. Duffee lands a big shot and De Fries folds up and if De Fries can get this fight to the ground quickly he could also finish. This would leave most slack jawed but still with a winning bet.

Melvin Guillard/ Jamie Varner Total Rounds Under 2.5– Both guys have knockout capabilities and Varner also packs submission skills. Figure in Guillard’s propensity for getting tapped out and a chin that seems vulnerable and I don’t think this one is going the distance. Play the Under.

Chris Leben to Win by TKO/KO/DQ– This one should be available at most sites and I expect it to be less then $2.00, but still a worthwhile investment. Leben isn’t winning this fight by submission even though he has a decent grappling game and going the distance is a possibility, but the way Leben throws bombs combined with Brunson’s poor striking defense makes this a high percentage outcome.

Tim Boetsch/ Costa Philippou Total Rounds Over 2.5– Both guys have the ability to finish fights- ask Yushin Okami and Jared Hamman, but I think this one is going the full 15. Costa has gone the distance in 5 of his last 6 and and Boetsch in 4 of his last 6 including 3 of 4 at MW. Both guys have a slight hint of conditioning issues, but seem to have solve this problem by effectively pacing themselves and not committing too much energy to at anyone time, which can limit a fighters ability to finish. Play the Over.

Joe Lauzon/ Jim Miller Total Rounds Under 2.5– Having the finishing skills of both guys on your side is always a nice bet. Lauzon has gone the distance once in 29 fights- finishing his opponent 22 times and getting finished 6 times. Of Miller’s 21 wins 15 have come before the final bell. He is coming off of a submission defeat, the first time anyone has been able to put him away so Miller is durable, so another potential bet involving this fight might also work…

Jim Miller to Win by Submission $3.40– This odd is posted and I think it is a little high with Miller holding 12 wins by submission and Lauzon getting tapped out 3 times in his career. Miller only has 3 wins by knockout so I could see him hurting Lauzon and pouncing on him for a sub. I like this bet and would think doubling it up with JDS (if your book allows it) would be a decent play.

Junior Dos Santos to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $1.79– If you want to add a little more value to your JDS play this is the way to go. HW fights very rarerly go the distance and I don’t expect to see Junior tapping Cain out even though he has talked about it in the media. 7 of JDS’s last 10 fights have ended via some form of knockout and if you look at the remaining 3- he destroyed Shane Carwin and it should have been stopped, Cro Cop goes down as a submission because he had to quit due to a broken orbital bone and the last one is Roy Nelson who is one of the toughest guys in the sport to knockout. I am taking JDS to win and think he does so by knockout, why not slightly increase the number here.

 


  UFC 155 $5 Bet Pack


Total Event Confidence Bets  (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Max Holloway  $1.36

2. Todd Duffee   $1.38

3. Junior dos Santos   $1.56

4. Costantinos Philippou $1.83

5. Chris Leben $1.71

6. Yushin Okami $1.83

7. Chris Cariaso $2.64

8. Eddie Wineland $1.95

9. Jim Miller $1.50

10. Erik Perez $1.27

11. Michael Johnson $1.45

12. Jamie Varner   $2.13


Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

1. Byron Bloodworth   $3.80- not a lot is known about Bloodworth but his striking technique is decent and Perez hasn’t really been tested on the feet yet so any price over $3.50 he is worth a look.

2. Alan Belcher   $1.91- Belcher is a talented guy and even though he has lost once to Okami already, the poise he showed against Palhares was impressive enough to consider him here especially if the number starts to move above $2.00.

3. Brad Pickett   $1.80- he has he skills to hang with Wineland and depending on what book you have he could actually be the underdog which make him look ever more enticing. I suggest betting one of Wineland or Pickett but not both.

4. Joe Lauzon   $2.60- is Lauzon hitting his prime? He has been around so long I forget sometimes he is still fairly young. This will be a good test to see where he is at and if Miller is starting to slip, at $2.60 he is worth a small play.

5. Myles Jury   $2.70- lots of improvement could have taken place in his 7 months away and he already had a good foundation to build upon. Based on pure value a small play here makes much more sense then a small play on MJ.

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.