UFC 153 Post Event Podcast

UFC 153 in Rio was an exciting event full of action and another thorough reminder of who the best pound for pound fighter on the planet truly is. Anderson Silva took his in ring antics to another level allowing the much larger Stephan Bonnar to pin him along the cage and throw strikes at will with no real desire to abandon the position until he was ready. Nearing the conclusion of the round Silva sprung into action and the rest was academic from there. Check out my UFC 153 Post Fight Podcast to get me views on all that went down on October 13th, 2012 in Brazil.


UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar


Parlay Doubles

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Luiz Cane $1.80
Selection 2: Erick Silva 1.71
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Price: $3.09
 
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Parlay #2
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Selection 1: Demian Maia 1.69
Selection 2: Joey Gambino $2.70
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Price: $4.56

Parlay Triples

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Parlay #3
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Selection 1: Francisco Trinaldo $2.35
Selection 2: Rony Jason $1.38
Selection 3: Glover Teixeira 1.27
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Price: $4.12

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Parlay #4
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Selection 1: Erick Silva 1.71
Selection 2: Demian Maia 1.69
Selection 3: Reza Madadi $1.56
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Price: $4.51

Parlay Double-Doubles

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Parlay #5
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Selection 1: Luiz Cane $1.80
Selection 2: Glover Teixeira 1.27
Selection 3: Joey Gambino $2.70
Selection 4: Erick Silva 1.71
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Price: $10.55
 
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Parlay #6
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Selection 1: Demian Maia 1.69
Selection 2: Francisco Trinaldo $2.35
Selection 3: Rony Jason $1.38
Selection 4: Dave Herman 3.00
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Price: $16.44
 

Big Parlay (I couldn’t come up with a name for this one)

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Parlay #7
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Selection 1: Demian Maia 1.69
Selection 2: Rony Jason $1.38
Selection 3: Erick Silva 1.71
Selection 4: Glover Teixeira 1.27
Selection 5: Luiz Cane $1.80
Selection 6: Reza Madadi $1.56
Selection 7: Sergio Moraes $1.50
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Price: $21.33

A Puncher’s Chance

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Parlay #8
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Selection 1: Demian Maia 1.69
Selection 2: Erick Silva 1.71
Selection 3: Dave Herman 3.00
Selection 4: Francisco Trinaldo $2.35
Selection 5: Joey Gambino $2.70
Selection 6: Reza Madadi $1.56
Selection 7: Luiz Cane $1.80
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Price: $154.47

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Christiano Marcello $2.50 vs Reza Madadi $1.56

First fight prediction jitters? I did manage to get a win in my last opening bout pick so I hope to put together a little streak with this one. There is some history between these two (see the video link below) so there will be some emotion involved on both sides. This can be a real wildcard factor in this fight because when you fight with emotion and not a clear mind mistakes can and do happen. I like Madadi in this fight, but I would like him more if his striking was a little bit better. Madadi’s strength (wrestling) leads him right into Marchello’ s best attribute (BJJ) and while he should be able to control him and suppress any real submission threat, Marcello is a high level grappler and could catch him. Additionally, Madadi was facing a very good striker in his debut, but I didn’t like the way he was responding to getting hit. Marcello’s striking is sub par, but he showed against Sicilia if he gets an opponent hurt he is capable of overwhelming them with a barrage of strikes. In the end I think Madadi will be able to hurt Marcello and finish him, but I won’t be risking a big number on this fight. I will most likely use Madadi on at least one parlay, but other then that I will leave this fight alone.

Video: Cristiano Marcello challenges Reza Madadi

Chris Camozzi $1.95 vs Luiz Cane $1.80

I listed a number of concerns regarding Cane in my breakdown and they are legitimate, especially his chin. Camozzi isn’t a striker on Cane’s level or the level of the guys that were able to stop the Brazilian, but he is the tough type of fighter that will hang around and is capable of sticking Cane with that one shot that could hurt him. A fighter changing a division can also be risky too, especially when it is out of desperation after dropping a couple of fights. I think that Cane has the vastly superior striking repertoire which will be the difference maker and having the crowd behind him will help too. Camozzi hasn’t really impressed me in the UFC and his wins have come mainly against bottom of the barrell competition, so if he was to win this fight he will need to put forth his best effort yet. I am a little surprised that these odds are so close together based on the talent comparison, but I guess it has to do with the questions that I raised about Cane. The books don’t want to get caught with a fighter as a heavy favorite that could have some ring rust or suffer from a bad weight cut so they will keep Cane a little higher and subsequently not allow Camozzi to hold too much value either. Cane is the play here and I am happy to take the $1.80. I would be okay with a small single bet, but his best use for him would be as part of a parlay. For Camozzi if you can get him above $2.30 then he is worth a small play, but nothing too over the top.

Renee Forte $2.60 vs Sergio Moraes $1.50

In the footage I have seen of Moraes I was really impressed with his heart and tenacity as he just seemed to go out there and lay it on the table. In the finals of TUF Brazil he was clearly at a disadvantage in the striking department but that didn’t deter him from going full board on the feet attacking his opponent. On the mat I give Moraes the edge, which is a big concern for Forte as that is where he is strongest too. I can honestly admit that I don’t know a great deal about either of these fighters outside of the footage that I have seen. I have read some rumours that Moraes has been working on his striking and has made some improvements. If this is the case, then it doesn’t bode well for Forte and it will really hamper his ability to find success anywhere in this fight. Based the research I have done on both guys; Moraes should emerge victorious, but Forte has been away for a while so it is hard to gauge what improvements (if any) he has made. I will most likely play Moraes at least once in a parlay, but I will tread carefully and look at the other options available on the card that I know more about.

Joey Gambino $2.70 vs Diego Brandao $1.45

This should be a great scrap; both guys are young aggressive fighters that will stand and trade, but are also more then capable on the ground. Gambino’s debut was short and wasn’t a victorious one so I expect that is partially the reason he is such a significant dog. If you go back and watch that fight, Gambino was looking strong early until he got clipped with a knee and busted wide open. With the amount of blood that was covering his face it would have been tough for anyone to operate effectively. Even with the damage to his dome he was able to power out of a full mount situation, unfortunately he stuck his neck into a guillotine and that was that. Many people believe that a fighter doesn’t reach that next level until they have suffered their first defeat and this could very well be the case here. Gambino was undefeated, but was sent back to the gym understanding that he is far from invincible and still needs to improve. Training out of Tri-Star, Gambino will be well prepared for this fight and ready for an opponent that is far from untouchable. Diego is the favourite and in the UFC had looked like a killer until the start of the second round against Elkins. If Diego can’t put Joey away in round 1 he could be up against it the rest of the way. Brandao’s balls to the wall style is great, but he is unable to maintain it for more then a round and he becomes a far less dangerous fighter when he starts to fatigue as can be seen in his 5-7 record in fights that last longer then a round. Additionally, Brandao has been stopped 4 times in his career and he got dropped by Bermudez so his chin is another issue that could cost him in this fight. Gambino has the wrestling skills to control Brandao on the mat along with a 6″ reach advantage to aid him in countering and keeping Diego out of range. I picked Gambino, but I wouldn’t be a very good predictor if I told you there is no way that Brandao could win this fight. He most definitely can either by knockout or catching him with a submission, but the value here is in Gambino at $2.70. Another thing to take into consideration is who the betting public is more familiar with. People bet on what they know and Brandao’s huge run on TUF put him in the eye of the public while Gambino is 0-1 with a first round finish on the prelims. It is easy to see that for people who only look at the basics how they will examine these two scenarios and pick Brandao without much hesitation. Oddsmakers will do their best to encourage them by making Brandao such a heavy favourite and upon seeing the odds they will no doubt put their money down on Brandao. By making Brandao a significant favourite it does two things for the books; if he does win the damage will be minimal and if he losses the majority of people will have bet on him so its a big win for the books. My suggestion is a decent bet on Gambino and using him on a couple of your parlays. He pays very well and has the skills to compete with and finish Brandao. For Diego, I would like to see him get a win outside of the Ultimate Fighter before I start picking him as a favourite of less then $1.50. Just to brag: I picked Elkins as a dog of more then 3 to 1 to beat Brandao.

Francisco Trinaldo $2.35 vs Gleison Tibau $1.67

In another underdog play I am on Trinaldo to upend Gleison Tibau in a fight that if it goes to the judges I expect to be incredibly close. These guys matchup pretty well- both are physically large…huge Lightweights, BJJ Blacks Belts, and both have striking power. The one major difference is that I would say that Tibau’s striking is a little more refined and Trinaldo is much more aggressive when he attacks. That is really what this fight came down to for me. Tibau was way to passive in his last fight and allowed a much smaller opponent to bully him around the cage and even though Nurmagomedov didn’t have a lot of success with his attacks, he was still far more active then Tibau and that scored big witht he judges. Being defensive isn’t enough to win a fight and I would expect that Tibau will have learned his lesson, but Trinaldo may still be able to exploit this. The big issues with Trinaldo is his gas tank- how will it hold up if he can’t end this fight early? He was carrying a lot of extra mass on the show because he was competing at MW, but still any time a fighter can’t get off the stool because of fatigue that is a huge point of concern. Prior to the show he went the distance 3 times in his career (all wins) and was 3-1 in fights that end in the second round so that helps to ease the concern a little bit. Tibau is an excellent measuring stick for anyone at 155 and this fight should show if Trinaldo is for real or not. The one thing that kept playing through my mind when researching this fight was Rogan continually talking about how aggressive Nurmagomedov was and how well Tibau was defending his attacks, yet the Russia won. Watching Trinaldo in action he is capable of being as equally as aggressive as Nurmagomedov and with his size and strength being able to match Tibau’s, he should be more effective at scoring points. Also it appeared that Tibau had issues dealing with the Russian’s unorthodox style, as he was a little unsure of what to expect next. While Francisco isn’t as ‘crazy’ as Khabib, he is still pretty wild which could have a similar effect when it comes to throwing Gleison off. This is going to be a very close fight, most of Tibau’s are, and it could really go either way, but when you look at how Trinaldo stacks up against the other guys that Tibau has beaten he is the first guy that can really match Gleison in all his major areas- size, strength, BJJ, and striking. Taking the dog in a fight this close is most often the best play from a value standpoint. If you can wait till fight day most people will be betting on Tibau because outside of Brazil Trinaldo’s name isn’t well known, and the money on Gleison will drive Francisco’s value up a bit. I would consider parlaying Trinaldo with one of Cane, Gambino, Silva or Herman- heck a small bet on each mini parlay should yield some decent cash. Again this is going to be a close fight, so don’t go over the top because the UFC veteran has already proven he know how to win at this level while Trinaldo is just starting out. I would suggest the parlays I mentioned above as an option, a single bet is also a way to go or an inclusion on a large parlay but again be a little conservative. If you want to bet on Tibau he does have some nice value and I would suggest a nice 3 fighter parlay with Tibau, Erik Silva, and Glover and or Rony Jason.

Sam Sicilia $3.00 vs Rony Jason $1.38

One thing that should never be forgotten about the UFC is that they are a business. A business that needs and wants to make money and the best way to do that is to expand to new markets, but it order to do that successfully the attendance numbers need to be there. That is why fights like this one get made- the best way to insure that people come out, have a great time, and want to come again is to make sure at least some of their countries fighters are winning. Sicilia has power and if he catches Jason on the chin he will most likely drop, but the likelihood of that happening is minimal. I really feel that Sicilia is a lamb getting lead to the slaughter as the UFC wants to make sure the final fight on the prelims gets the crowd fired up and sends them off to the PPV on a high note. Sam’s aggressive, power punching, no set up strikes, and hands held low style is the perfect match for Jason’s powerful counter striking and 6″ reach advantage. Unless Sicilia has tighten up his technique the manner in which he moves forward is going to get him smashed and Jason has both the power and technique to accomplish it. Marcello was able to avoid the majority of Sicilia’s big shots, Jason will be able to as well and I expect him to be sticking counters in like needles into a pin cushion. I will be using Jason as one of my main plays on the parlays for the night and a single bet makes sense here too, while Sicilia needs a better performance then in his last fight before I start putting money on him against any serious competition.

Rick Story 2.15 vs Demian Maia 1.69

Moving to the main card and Demian Maia, the man that destroyed Dong Hyun Kim in under a minute via a hug is back for another victim. I kid. Maia’s debut was short and the end was a let down as no one likes to see a fight end because of an injury, but it was still an informative performance. Maia is a BJJ wizard, but he fell in love with striking and as a result fell out of relevancy at 185. He appeared to return to his roots against Kim going right for the takedown and not giving up until he got it. I was really impressed with his ability to tie Kim up and eventually take him down considering Kim is a such a talented Judo practitioner. If Maia replicates a similar gameplan here he could have another successful night, but he will have to work harder for it then he did in his first WW appearance. The big question about Maia that still exists is his conditioning. It wasn’t great at 185, so we still need him to prove he can go deep into a fight without slowing down. Sometimes a weight cut will improve a fighter’s cardio by forcing him to get into better shape and other times the cut can be so drastic that his conditioning suffers, only time will tell. Rick Story is a tough out for anyone at 170- he hits hard, has solid wrestling, and very good conditioning. If he is able to keep this fight vertical he could very well use his striking to work his way to a decision victory or score a knockout. That being said… Story’s strengths- clinch work, fighting along the wall, and his wrestling all lead him directly into Maia’s area of dominance. I anticipate that the combination of Maia pursuing the grappling game and Story’s natural inclination to engage will eventually lead to the fight going to the ground. Even if Story is on top, especially early, he will need to be very careful. If Maia can get on top that could be a whole other ballgame and the possibility of that happening is a real one. Story has had issues with getting taken down- Brenneman really exposed the problem and Martin Kampmann was able to find success as well, but even before those fights guys like Johny Hendricks and John Hathaway were able to put Rick on his back with regularity. I think Maia can be a force at 170 now that he is not having to deal with a size disadvantage and if guys like Martin Kampmann and John Hathaway can take Story off his feet, Demian Maia should be able to as well. Maia pays decent at $1.69 and is a nice addition to any parlay. I think that a combo of Maia, Gambino and Cane would be worth a shot. For Story at $2.15 he is worth a small single bet- if Maia has conditioning issues or elects to use his striking only in this fight Story can walk from the cage with the win.

Wagner Prado 3.50 vs Phil Davis 1.28

I have done a lot of writing so far and there is still 4 fights left to go so lets keep this one short- Davis needs to take this fight to the ground and not play with the idea of standing with Prado like he did last time. If Prado connects Davis will be in trouble. In the last fight Davis stood too long and Wagner landed which caused Phil to back up and lead to the eye poke. Davis’s striking is a work in progress, but this is a fight (especially in Wagner’s homeland) where you do not want to allow Prado to gain any momentum. I will be using Davis on a parlay or 2, but with caution. This fight is almost a no play for me as I saw somethings that I didn’t like in the last fight and even though I expect the wrestler to wrestle I don’t want to get caught if he doesn’t.

Erick Silva 1.71 vs Jon Fitch 2.10

Huge statement fight here for both guys. If Fitch wants to remain in the upper tier this is a must win. Nothing could rejuvenate his career like shutting down a rising star like Erick Silva. Silva on the other hand has made a nice progression up the ladder and now sits on the edge of the pool with the big boys. If he beats a former title contender and the man once considered the best WW not named St-Pierre, he will be on the verge of title contention. When I say on the verge, he still needs 1-2 more big wins but he will have come along way since he started his UFC career not that long ago. What Fitch wants to do is simple- obtain top control and stay there. Get Silva to the ground, keep him there, and beat him up. He is one of the most effective guys at executing this gameplan. It might not be pretty, but he makes it work and Silva will need to avoid giving Jon-boy any openings to get on top. What that means is- no spinning back kicks, no jumping knee strikes, and eliminate any and all high risk maneuvers at least early on. If Silva can show that he is capable of defending the takedown and maybe gets a round in the bag then he can open up and have a little fun. But anything that would leave him vulnerable for a takedown which could result in Fitch getting on top and not getting off of him till the bell goes is a no-no. Silva has serious power and although Fitch has been working to improve his striking he can’t afford to stand long with the Brazilian. Looking back at Fitch’s history; any time he stands with a power puncher he gets beaten up- GSP, Johny Hendricks, Mike Pierce, and even BJ Penn to a lesser extent. Silva is the type of striker that might only need one chance and that is something that Fitch can’t afford to play with. The other thing that comes to mind is the success that BJ had both defending the early takedowns (before he gassed) and attacking Fitch on the ground. If BJ can do it so can Silva who is a talented grappler and will be able to match Fitch’s size and strength (something BJ couldn’t). I have Silva ranked as my #1 value play because he pays decent and I really like him to leave with a win- so single bet and using him on the majority of your parlays it the way to go. For Jon Fitch the higher he goes in value the more my interest will grow. I think Silva takes this fight 9 times out of 10, but if Jon gets up to $2.25 or above I might consider placing a small wager on him considering he is the battle tested veteran taking on a rising talent that is taking a big step up in competition.

Fabio Maldonado 3.60 vs Glover Teixeira 1.27

I expect that this bout is going to be a crowd pleaser and most likely won’t be going the distance. Glover Teixeira debuted with a great deal of hype and he didn’t disappoint smashing Kyle Kingsbury on the feet and putting him away via submission on the ground. Maldonado has had mixed results in his career dropping his last two fights including a close decision defeat against the aforementioned Kingsbury. Fabio is touted as having very good set of boxing skills, but with one glaring concern. While Fabio’s offensive skills are strong, his defensive skills are not. He has a tendency to let his opponent land at will and that is a real concern. Against both Kingsbury and Pokrajac he was continually getting tagged with big shots and while he has a good chin, it is hard to win a fight when your opponent is able to land at will. I actually found it quite interesting to note that Fabio appears to invite his opposition to hit him, almost wanting to prove that he is able to take their best shot and not go down. Being tough and having a great chin is one thing, but this is MMA and not a parking lot brawl. This approach really makes me question his fight IQ- not getting knocked out in a fight is good but losing a decision ultimately produces the same a result as getting knocked out. Glover has big punching power and as result standing and trading with him is less then advisable even with good striking defense, so in this situation a expect that Glover is going to be able to hit Maldonado and will ultimately hurt him. I saw signs in Maldonado’s last performance that the damage from a predominantly striking based career might be catching up to him as he did appear to get stunned a couple of times by Igor. In addition to his issues with striking defense, Fabio’s ground game has some wholes as well. He was taken down several times by both Kingsbury and Igor, and if he struggled with their grappling skills he will have a world of trouble against Glover. For me one of these two weaknesses would be a good enough reason to pick against a fighter. Considering Fabio has two major defensive issues and doesn’t really possess that one punch knockout power that could hurt Glover during an exchange I believe his ability to win this fight is minimal. I understand why Fabio took the bout as he isn’t getting any younger a win here would thrust him up into the upper level of the division. I can’t blame a guy for trying, but it just isn’t going to happen. At a $1.27, Glover’ value is mind blowing, but since I feel he walks away with this fight in almost every scenario possible I will be including him across the board on my parlays. I wouldn’t be against a single bet, but I feel there are a few other options that pay better on this card. For Fabio, I don’t see his style working well in this fight as he has already struggled against lesser competition so he is a no play for me.

Dave Herman 3.00 vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira 1.36

Dave Herman- this is my fourth time predicting one of his fights and I am 1-2 so far. Against Struve he won the opening round in the manner that I expected, but was then shut down in round two (similar to Struve vs Miocic). Against Nelson, the fight lasted less than a minute, but he was doing everything right by fighting long and using kicks until he got cracked by that Big Country overhand right. Many people are totally writing Dave off in this fight against Big Nog and for the most part I can understand why. But part of me believes it is for the same reasons that people felt Shogun was going to ruin Jon Jones. I am not comparing Jones and Herman, but what I am saying is that there is great allegiance to Pride and the fighters/ legends that are now fighting in the UFC. I get the impression that a lot of people are backing Nogueira because they don’t want him to lose and they are discrediting Herman because they recognize that if he were to win it would pretty much spell the end of the “good ole days”. My job is to look at fighters objectively and from what I have seen Herman has some significant advantages. Speed is a big one; speed can be a determining factor almost every time- Demetrious Johnson, Dominick Cruz, Jose Aldo, Frankie Edgar and Junior Dos Santos all come to mind as fighters that are able to use speed as an effective weapon against their opponents. If Herman is faster and he should be, then I expect this will help him to neutralize a lot of Nogueira’s offense. Striking diversity is another area; Nog is primarily a boxer and while he will throw kicks his hands are his main weapon. For Herman he uses more kicks and knees strikes in his game which will allow him to mix it up better and stay on the outside away from Nog’s hands. If I was creating a game plan for Herman I would have him using low kicks early to blast Nog’s legs and even further limit his mobility. For Nog he does have knockout power potential, but with only 3 in his career and his most recent coming against Brendan Schaub who has a growing rep for being chinny we shouldn’t jump on board of the Nog knockout train just yet. Should the fight remain standing with no knockout then Herman will have a significant edge in total strikes landed as on average he out lands the Brazilian 3 to 1. If Nogueira can get this fight to the ground then Herman will be in trouble, but that is a big ‘if’. Herman stating that BJJ doesn’t work in MMA is stupid and/or a ploy to create a little build up for this fight (it has worked for others) and I fully expect him to be aware of the dangerous a grappling exchange will bring. Outside of Herman getting knocked down I don’t see Nog getting the fight to the ground that easily. His takedowns numbers aren’t that stellar and I anticipate that Dave’s defensive wrestling and ability to maintain distance with his kicks should be enough to keep Nog from taking him down. I understand why Nog is the favourite; he is the more accomplished fighter and Herman has hit a rough patch in his career, but what people need to recognize is that Mr. Nogueira is past his prime. He is on the wrong side of 35, has been out of action for almost a year, and is coming of a significant injury. One of these factors is usually enough of a reason to bet against a fighter, but 3 makes me believe that Herman is the play here. At $3.00 Herman has a decent return on a single bet and really bolsters whatever parlay you include him on. BUT a word of warning- I along with many others thought Nog was done before he fought Schaub and he proved us wrong. Fighting in front of a ravenous home crowd can inspire many things and it could motivate Nogueira to dig down deep and get the win. I will certainly have parlays without Herman on them, but at the same time I just don’t see the Pride veteran catching fire in a bottle for a second time.

Anderson Silva 1.08 vs Stephan Bonnar 8.50

Alright here it is, I am guessing some of you skipped right to this section. Its okay, don’t worry as it was expected. Everyone is running around saying there is no way that Stephan Bonnar can beat Anderson Silva. Let me tell you this- if any MMA predictor tells you that Bonnar has no chance of winning this fight do yourself a favour and stop watching them. They clearly don’t know anything about MMA. I didn’t pick Bonnar, but that doesn’t mean he can’t or wont win this fight. Bonnar presents a tonne of issues for Silva with size being a significant one. If Bonnar can close the distance and muscle Silva along the cage and take him down he could grind out a decision win. Keep in mind that Bonnar has nothing to lose here and can just go for it understanding that everyone expects him to get beat. Silva taking this fight gains a lot of respect back in my mind- I don’t care how much money they threw at him, it is a huge risk to his legacy if he drops this fight. Desipite being the MW champion if he falls here, people will constantly be talking about his defeat against a non-top 10 almost retired fighter- that isn’t a good thing for a fighter looking to be considered the greatest of all time. Bonnar has never been stopped and has faced a lot of big name competition- Machida, Griffin, Jones, Evans, etc but take into consideration that when he faced all of these fighters it was before they were at the elite level. Betting on Silva at $1.08 or anything below $1.25 is a waste of time. There is too little to gain from betting on Silva and you really don’t want to have the biggest upset in MMA history linked to a ruined night of betting. My suggestion would be to at least put $10 down on Bonnar a little more if you have it, what could it hurt with that big of a return. My other suggestion would be to make all of your parlay bets for the night, pick you favourite 3 or 4 and then repeat them with Bonnar added on to them, maybe with a smaller bet amount.

***I am only posting this in the bet pack, but I certainly considered picking Bonnar- I think he has a decent chance to win this fight. The reason I didn’t take him was 2 fold- if I picked Bonnar and he lost, it would damage my credibility amongst the uninformed masses that would just say “see stupid, Bonnar wasn’t going to win, your an idiot” and if I took Bonnar they would have said it was a lucky guess and nothing more. This situation is really a no win situation. I do think Silva should win this but the odds are too high on Bonnar not to take him and they are not a true representation of how these fighters matchup more they are based on Silva’s name. Either way it will be a fun fight and certainly a dead quiet building if Bonnar does pull it off.


Top 5 Confidence Bets (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Glover Teixeira 1.27

2. Rony Jason $1.38

3. Erick Silva 1.71

4. Anderson Silva 1.08

5. Phil Davis 1.28


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

1. Erick Silva 1.71

2. Joey Gambino $2.70

3. Dave Herman 3.00

4. Francisco Trinaldo $2.35

5. Luiz Cane $1.80

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Prop Bets-

Joey Gambino/ Diego Brandao Total Rounds Under 2.5– Brandao is a first round finisher and he is the favourite in this fight so that would imply that an early finish is what many is expected. Gambino has finishing ability to and will go after it should the opportunity arise. Unlike Darren Elkins, if Gambino is dealing with a tired Brandao he will go for the finish instead of trying to grind it out. Both guys can finish, both guys have been finished- take the under.

Sam Sicilia/ Rony Jason Total Rounds Under 2.5Sicilia swings for the fences every time he throws so if he lands he could end it and I think Jason will be able counter and fill the holes in Sicilia’s striking defence with power shots of his own. This fight should go the distance, take the under.

Dave Herman/ Big Nog Total Rounds Under 1.5 or 2.5Continuing with the theme of the night- one of the best bets on any card is taking a Heavyweight fight to go under the total rounds. In this situation Herman or Nog could score the knockout and if it goes to the ground it could be tap or snap for Mr. Herman.

Fabaio Maldonado/ Glover Teixeira Total Rounds Under 1.5 or 2.5Teixeira has knockout power and with Maldonado’s poor striking defence the opportunities will be there in spades to land that big shot. Yes Fabio has a good chin, but I don’t think it will hold up here. Additionally, his grappling game isn’t on par with Glovers and if the fight goes to the ground we could see a submission finish. If your site is offering it at 2.5 get on it, I still think it will be under 1.5 but be a little more cautious with your investment if your only getting a round and a half.

Stephan Bonnar by Decision $26.00- I don’t expect Bonnar is going to submitt Anderson and a knockout is highly unlikely and considering this is a 3 round fight all Bonnar needs to do is take Anderson down and control him for two rounds and then not get finished in the other. In fact I would recommend using this play over Bonnar straight up, big time value here.

Anderson Silva by Decision $4.33– Bonnar is tough to finish and again in a 3 round fight I could see him surviving with Anderson not wanting to overextend himself to avoid getting tired, this is probably the best number you are going to get on Anderson Silva so why not take a shot on it.