UFC 150 – Post Fight Results
The Frankie Edgar era in the UFC’s Lightweight Division officially has officially come to a close, for now. In the main event of UFC 150 Ben Henderson “successfully” retained his 155 pound title belt with a very controversial 5 round decision victory over the former champion. For the purposes of reviewing this event I have decided to break this review down into a couple of sections. Overall UFC 150 wasn’t a great night of fights, there were a few high moments but it just seemed to lack that consistent flow of a top level event.
-Nik Lentz looked pretty solid in his debut and will add some more depth to the Featherweight division. If he continues to improve he could find himself closing in on the top 10 of the division.
-Erik Perez showed some real power and has now finished two UFC vets inside the first round. It will be interesting to see who the UFC matches him up with next.
-Dennis Bermudez survived a nasty knee and rallied back to finish Tommy Hayden. Just like Nik Lentz, Bermudez could breath some much needed life into the lower ranks of the 145 division.
-Max Holloway’s attack on Justin Lawrence body was a thing of beauty, especially considering Lawerence’s striking background. Holloway is young and hopefully the UFC doesn’t push him too quickly Holloway vs Steven Siler would be a very good fight.
-Donald Cerrone came into the fight with a tonne of confidence that was quickly erased when Melvin Guillard tagged him, but he showed good composure to survived Guillard’s blitz and then knock him out in impressive fashion. It is hard to believe that Cowboy only has 2 official knockouts over his career, both of which have come since joining the UFC.
-Ben Henderson has the title, this much we know. Does he deserve to be the champion? That is still unclear, but we are now looking forward to a dynamite of a title fight between Henderson and Nate Diaz.
-Dustin Pauge has been quite active of late, but he really couldn’t afford to drop a fight to a UFC newcomer who he had significant physical advantages over.
-Ken Stone’s Chin was getting a pass after his last fight with the aforementioned Pauge, but Perez proved otherwise.
-Yushin Okami looked a little lost on the feet last night, Buddy Roberts wasn’t doing anything really tricky but he seemed to be landing with regularity. If Okami plans on remaining in the mix at 185 he needs to have a much better all around performance next time out.
-Yes Jake Shields won the fight, but he did nothing to make people want to watch him fight again. Shields ground skills are effective, but it just doesn’t sit right with me that he is a veteran of the sport and has been around so long yet he hasn’t made limited developement with his striking. My expectation is that Shields will have very limited if any success against any of the top guys at 185, give him Okami next in rematch.
-Melvin Guillard once again snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. He was on the verge of a title shot before he got floored by Joe Lauzon, he had a great start against Jim Miller before getting submitted and he almost became the first man to stop Cerrone. Had he won any of these fights he is in the title hunt, but now he will most likely be relegated to the FX and Fuel cards. I know he took the fight on late notice, but seriously the Blackzillian camp is gaining a reputation for weight issues…cough Rumble Johnson is now a Light Heavyweight cough.
-Frankie Edgar did more then Ben Henderson and most likely should have left with the title, but seriously Frankie lets make an effort to do something remarkable in the cage. He has now fought in 6 straight title fights and has gone the distance 5 of 6 times, with one impressive finish. Maybe Edgar needs to consider a drop to 145 to see if his power translate better in that division and makes up for the expected lose of his speed advantage.
-Jared Hamman had no business going back out there for the second round and his corner should be ashamed that they allow that fight to continue. He was clearly injured, with his damaged leg limiting his ability to move his already battered chin was a sitting duck waiting to be blasted out of the sky. No one would have thought less of Hamman for not answering the bell and the fact that even after the round started the corner elected to let Hamman take a ridiculous beating until he dropped without stopping the fight made me sick.
-Buddy Roberts’s response to Okami taking him down, which was nothing, less then nothing if that is possible. I gave him the benefit of the doubt at the end of round one thinking he was just riding it out, but in the second frame when he just covered up and took it that really was UGLY. Do something, buck, roll, try to show some effort otherwise why bother showing up. With the success he was having on the feet and huge push a win would have given him he had a lot to get up for, but you would have never known it based on his effort or lack there of.
-Ed Herman, have you ever heard of a gameplan or strategy? He had won 3 in a row and a win over a name like Shields would have given him some decent upward momentum. Everyone, some people that don’t even watch MMA, know that Shield’s has next to no striking skills and the best way to beat him is to keep this vertical. Yet Mr. Herman decided to tie up with him almost from the start of the fight. I could see spending the first round battling him in the clinch to try and break him down but then after that get back to the striking and win the fight. Had Herman focused the second frame on striking and got that round in the bag he could have potentially won a decision 29-28, but he didn’t, he play directly into Jake’s strong point and lost the fight…rant done.
-Main event judging, it was bad. Edgar was the more aggressive fighter and one judge gave him 4 of 5 rounds which is what he deserved yet the other two gave it to Benson. I am glad that Dana made it clear ahead of time that there would be no rematch because it is saving us a lot of time attempting to justify giving Edgar a third fight (that he probably deserves) despite an 0-2 record against the Champ. If Frankie is the real champion he should be able to pick up 2-3 wins an the upper level of the division and make a claim for another shot.
I finished the night with a less then exciting 6-4-0 record, but I did go 4-1 on the main card with a perfect 5-0 Confidence List in my bet pack. 3 of the 4 losses were fights that I wasn’t the most confident in, but the Ed Herman defeat was the one tha stung. Had ‘Short Fuse’ not had a short circuit I would have gone 7-3-0, perfect on the main card, hitting my top 3 value picks, and ending the night with a second consecutive big payday.
In prepping for the fights I put a lot of work in, but I can only give so much time to prelim predictions especially when we get into one of those stretches with a fight every week for 3 weeks as is the case right now (UFC on Fox, UFC 150, Strikeforce). No excuses, just a tough series of prelims to get ready for especially with 4 fighters making their second UFC appearance, 1 debuting, and 3 fighting in a new weight class. All important parts of the prediction game, I’ll just have to do better next time.
You can check out the UFC 150 Bet Pack below
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
Parlay Doubles=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Benson Henderson 1.56 Selection 2: Ken Stone 1.83 =================================================== Price: $2.85 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Max Holloway 2.03 Selection 2: Ed Herman 2.71 =================================================== Price: $5.50
Parlay Triples=================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Donald Cerrone 1.33 Selection 2: Dustin Pague 1.58 Selection 3: Ed Herman 2.71 =================================================== Price: $5.69 =================================================== Parlay #4 =================================================== Selection 1: Ken Stone 1.83 Selection 2: Max Holloway 2.03 Selection 3: Benson Henderson 1.56 =================================================== Price: $5.80
Parlay Double-Doubles=================================================== Parlay #5 =================================================== Selection 1: Jared Hamman 1.90 Selection 2: Benson Henderson 1.56 Selection 3: Max Holloway 2.03 Selection 4: Dustin Pague 1.58 =================================================== Price: $9.51 =================================================== Parlay #6 =================================================== Selection 1: Dennis Bermudez 1.37 Selection 2: Donald Cerrone 1.33 Selection 3: Ed Herman 2.71 Selection 4: Ken Stone 1.83 =================================================== Price: $9.04 Another Parlay option to consider… =================================================== Parly # 6 + Benson Henderson 1.56 Price: $14.10 ===================================================
Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns
Take into consideration that these fights are taking place in Denver which could greatly impact the endurance of even the most conditioned fighters.
Eiji Mitsuoka 3.75 vs Nik Lentz 1.32
I have said it a number of times and last show proved this (no real basis) theory correct again; I don’t like to be on the opening fight of the night. Just for interest sake I went back to each UFC event in 2012 to look at my opening night fight record and I was 8-11, not very good. I don’t know what it is about that first prediction it just seems to be a difficult one, probably because the guys raising the curtain are lesser known and therefore I haven’t had as much experience predicting their fights and there isn’t as much fight tape available on the net. Either way, lets try and get back to even shall me. I like Nik Lentz here, he is #4 on my confidence list. He had a solid run at LW and isn’t a huge man so I think he should have success dropping down to 145. His wrestling skills should translate quite nicely to against the smaller opponents and as long as he doesn’t have trouble with the speed of the new weight class I expect good things from this wrestling based fighter. For Mitsuoka he should some decent striking against Gomi in his debut, but gassed out in round 2. Again, it was his debut, but Lentz style of grappling control based fighting will break anyone down who isn’t in top shape. I like Lentz here to grind this fight out, he might even pull of the finish if the opportunity presents itself. Even at $1.32 he is worth a play along side a couple of other fighters on a parlay or two. Mitsuoka doesn’t appeal to me here; although he is a veteran he doesn’t have a great deal of experience facing this type of opponent which makes me less then confident he will be able to pull this one out. Let’s hope the curse of the first doesn’t get me again.
Ken Stone 1.83 vs Erik Perez 1.99
Ken Stone is a guy that is flying a little bit under the radar. His two knockout losses to Jorgensen and Wineland put him there, but I think that this guy has some talent and could work his way into the the top 15 as long as his chin holds up. Perez won an entertaining, albeit controversial debut fight. Although he walked with the win, he did get caught early on in a couple of nasty submission attempts that were very close to ending the fight. Perez has won the majority of his bouts by submission but in the footage I have seen I see nothing that shows me he can get the better of Stone in the grappling department. Perez will need to keep this bout standing and look to crack Stone’s (haha) chin. This might be his best chance to win the fight, but that still doesn’t mean that it is going to happen. Stone has decent striking and held his own against a rangy Muay Thai guy in Dustin Pague in his last outing. Either way I think that Stone has the skills to take this fight wherever he wants it and keep it there. At just under $1.99 I don’t see Perez being worth too much of a look. He has limited big fight experience, basically one round in the UFC and a win over one of the better European Bantamweights in BAMMA. For Stone this will be his fifth trip to the octagon, he has battle both a former WEC champion and a title challenger and is coming off a competitive 3 round victory not even 2 months ago. Take a look at Stone both for a single bet and as part of a parlay. He has some solid value at $1.83 and if he wins this fight we wont see him again at this price level or above until he starts fighting top 15 opponents. Don’t be surprised if this line moves and Stone drops like a…stone, I have already seen him as low as $1.77.
Dustin Pague 1.58 vs Chico Camus 2.55
Welcome to the big show Chico Camus. The majority of fighters entering the Octagon for the first time will suffer from Octagon Jitters, we have heard it a million times. Although Camus is new to the UFC he should be well prepped training alongside of guys like Anthony Pettis, Alan Belcher and Erik Koch all of whom bring a little bit of swagger to the cage. Pauge didn’t really impress me in the early going, he seemed to fold IMO in hist last fight on TUF and first official UFC bout. Since then he has beat a pretty tough guy in Jared Papazian and went the distance with the already mentioned Ken Stone. Pauge is a lengthy guy for 135 and when he uses that to maintain separation he is quite effective. Further, he has also had success using the clinch in close to attack with knees and control his opponent. For me this fight comes down to one major thing; Pague needs to avoid getting put on his back. In Camus’s second last fight he fought a pretty lanky guy and pretty much his entire gameplan consisted of shoot for takedowns, maintaining top position, and defending submission attempts. If Pague can avoid the mistakes that Camus’s opponent made he should be able to find success on the feet. I like Pauge at $1.58 against a debut fighter, especially considering this will be Dustin’s 3rd bout in just over 2 months. He should have a high comfort level enter the cage again and if Camus does have that Octagon shock, we could get himself blasted from the start. I would say invest in Pague on a parlay, but nothing too extensive. He should win this fight, but there are some unknowns here that make me the slightest bit hesitant. Use him, but use him carefully. Shop around for Camus if you have that luxury, if you can find him at close to $2.75 or above take a shot for a small singles play, but only if you have the extra bankroll.
Jared Hamman 1.90 vs Michael Kuiper 1.90
I have read and researched about Kuiper and still don’t have a great read on him. Hamman on the other hand is the type of guy that is going to scrap, he might gett beaten up but he is coming to that cage to fight so you had better be ready. When he fought Kyle Kingsbury a mountain of a man at 205lbs, Hamman just kept coming forward and was exhausting his opponent by absorbing punishment. While he looked like a badass, he still lost the fight. In his next bout against CB Dollaway , he again got his ass handed to him in round one, but when Dollaway gassed trying to put him away Hamman jumped all over him and finished his night in the second frame. Against Costa Philippou he got smashed in round one and that was it, Costa is a beast and floored Hamman in a way that ensured there would be no comeback. I don’t like backing fighters that take punishment and hope to break their opponent doing so. Fightmetric has his Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute at 3.36, which is a lot, to counter his he lands 4.7 Sig. strikes on his opponent. Although these stats over his career work in his favour, allowing your opposition to land with such regularity can’t be a good thing. I picked Hamman here because he is a very big Middleweight with the brawling style that should break an unprepared and relatively new to the UFC fighter like Kuiper COULD be. If Kuiper is ready for this step up he should be able to hold his own and maybe be the next guy to down to Hamman. I think that Jarred has some value at $1.90, some sites have him slightly lower. I wouldn’t go too low with him and I would be more tempted to take him on a single bet taking the cash if he wins and be thankful he didn’t wreck a nice parlay if he doesn’t. For Kuiper he might be worth a look above $2.10 range, maybe doubling him up with a solid paying fighter like Holloway or Herman would make for a nice backup combo. I am betting on Hamman to win, but play at your own risk here. Maybe this fight should be the first fight of the night.
Dennis Bermudez 1.37 vs Tommy Hayden 3.29
Is this fight a trap fight? I don’t know, but something is a little fishy here. Bermudez dominates a solid veteran formerly in the top 10 of the division and Hayden gets subbed in his debut while fighting at LW and now they are paired up? This is not generally how things work in the UFC, unless they know/see something in Hayden that will make this fight much more competitive then many expect or they are looking to build Bermudez with another win. In fact having looked through many of the boards and other sites’ predictions Bermudez is expected to smash right through Hayden with little effort. Hayden has grappling credentials and Bermudez has been subbed 3 times, all recently, which is my biggest concern. Dennis showed decent submission defence against Garza and looked like an animal with his takedowns, but you don’t want to play with fire for too long or you might get… submitted. My first instinct was of all the guys I picked against for this event Hayden stood out to be as a decent play for a single bet both based on skill and his value (I have seen him range all the way up to $3.50). For Bermudez I will again tread carefully, I seem to be saying that a lot for this show. I will spread him out, sprinkle him into my parlays, but make sure I have plenty of options without his name to keep the night rolling.
Justin Lawrence 1.88 vs Max Holloway 2.03
This is a pair of young fighters that might not carry big name value, but will certainly put on a show and it is nice to see them getting an opportunity on the big stage. Lawerence was a top pick on TUF 15 and has a kickboxing background while Holloway took a fight with top contender Dustin Poirier on short notice and gave him all he could handle in the early stages. Both guys are extremely young and have a combined total of 10 pro fights under their belt. Lawerence is coming off of a fantastic head kick KO in his debut, but I am a little bit surprised that he is the favourite here considering Holloway has a little more experience both overall and in the UFC. Lawerence does have a striking background, but he didn’t really impress me that much in his official debut despite what should have been a significant technical advantage over a primarily wrestling based opponent. Lawerene took a significant amount of damage in that fight and against a guy like Holloway who is capable of putting up some big numbers in the strikes landed category that can make it difficult to win a decision. Holloway is going to have an experience edge, a slight edge in reach along with a couple of inches in height, and to me he seems like the more skilled MMA striker. What this equates to his him having some nice value at just above $2.00, I have seen him lower and he could move downward so don’t twiddle your thumbs. Considering their are two big betting favourites on the main card; Okami and a slightly smaller one in Cerrone, I intend to use Holloway as a central part of my betting card both as a parlay and as a solid single investment. For Lawerence I would much rather see him around the $2.50 mark before I put some money down on this kid fresh from the Ultimate Fighter.
Buddy Roberts 4.75 vs Yushin Okami 1.18
Until Yushin Okami was knocked out by Tim Boetsch in the third round at UFC 144, it could have been argued that he was one of the best Middleweights not named Silva or Sonnen. Along with those two elite 185ers, the only other Middleweight to beat ‘Thunder’ was former Champion Rich Franklin and that fight was 5 years ago and Okami has made significant improvements since that fight. This bout was originally between Okami and Rousimar Palhares, two former contenders that were coming off defeats. As has been the norm of late, the bout was changed when Palhares went down with an injury and when Robert’s opponent Chris Camozzi was forced from the card Joe Silva gave Roberts a huge opportunity to move up and take on Okami. I commend Roberts for jumping on this chance and there have been plenty of fighters in the past who have taken the step up to fill a vacated spot and done quite well for themselves. Unfortunately for Roberts I don’t see that happening here and the odds reflect this. When it comes right down to it I think Okami wins this fight anywhere it goes but at $1.18 his value is so limited he isn’t worth the risk of including Okami on your bet card. If you can shop around and get him around $1.25 then he might be worth an add to a parlay, but I would stay away for anything less. Roberts has some power, 4 wins by knockout, and Okami is coming off back to back knockout defeats which could make him a little gun-shy if Buddy finds the range early. Either way Okami pays too little and Roberts is taking a huge step up for even a small bet at $4.75 to be worth consideration. Do Not Play.
Ed Herman 2.71 vs Jake Shields 1.53
Let’s get to my big upset pick of the night. I was very grateful to see Ed Herman as high as he was for this bout. Jake Shields had a great run in Strikeforce and in other promotions, but by now we should be well aware of the talent differential that he was dealing with both. In Strikeforce he did defeat Dan Henderson, but at that point Hendo was struggling to make 185 and I believe he was recovering from an injury (maybe his back) which lead to him gassing after winning round 1. Sheilds won the title against Jason Miller in a close fight. When Jason Miller made the jump to the UFC he was dismantled by Michael Bisping (no shame there) and then beaten by CB Dollaway a fighter not even in the top 20 maybe even top 30 UFC Middleweight rankings. Whether people want to look back or not, Miller’s struggles should impact how we view the significance of Shields defeating him when comparing his resume to his opponents’. Jake had an alright start to his UFC WW run winning a scrappy bout with Martin Kampmann (some felt he lost) and then going the distance with a one-eyed champion. After that fight he gets a pass for the Ellenberger battle and I commend him for still fighting despite the death of his father. His fight against Akiyama wasn’t great, he did win, but it was more based on his what Sexyama didn’t do then what Shields did do. Had Akiyama been a little more aggressive with his strikes he would have taken that bout with ease based on how well he defended the takedowns of Shields. If Jake can’t get his opponent to the ground (as seen in the GSP and Akiyama bouts) his striking is limited and will come up short against a decent striker. Herman has put together a nice run and although I don’t expect to see him challenging for the title any time soon I do think he could make waves in the lower end of the top 10 especially with a win here. He is the physically bigger fighter with a solid grappling base which should help him to deal with Shields’s takedown attempts. If Herman keeps it standing he will have a decent advantage with his striking and will most likely outwork and do do some serious damage to Jake. Shields is a battler and isn’t willing to relinquish his hold on being an elite level fighter, but I feel part of that rise to fame came from fighting lesser competition. If he truly is going to make a run at 185 he needs to win this fight in dominating fashion but I just don’t see it. I like to pick fighters with more dimensions to their game; Herman is physically bigger, is the more skilled striker and is a BJJ Black Belt with a great deal of MMA grappling experience vs Shields who is a specialist with one major talent. Additionally, Shields is 33 years old and he hasn’t fought at 185 in over 2 years which could also play a factor here too. I would use Herman in a single bet and as part of my parlays, but I won’t go over the top and take Ed across the board because Jake could live up to the hype, but I like what I see in Herman as the underdog.
Update- After having read an interview with Jake Shields I feel much more comfortable backing Herman. Shields first stated that he underestimated Herman and took the fight feeling it would be an easy win. Since watching footage he has changed his mind and expects a much tougher challenge. You have to expect that Herman will be motivated by these comments to go out and prove his opponent wrong. Secondly and more importantly Shields has admitted he felt weakened when he arrived in the high altitude of Denver and wished he had arrived earlier to get use to it. This issue is only magnified by the fact that a year ago Herman moved to Colorado and trains day to day in the thin air which should give him a huge advantage. Even if Shields wins the opening round, he will expend a lot of energy attempting to control Herman and the high altitude will exhaust him and leave him vulnerable for the rest of the fight to lose either a decision or get stopped.
Donald Cerrone 1.33 vs Melvin Guillard 3.20
Big LW fight and most likely a fight for the winner with Anthony Pettis in a title eliminator. I’ve already talked about the importance of fighters with multiple dimensions and this fight is a perfect example. On one side you have a very dangerous striker in Guillard with big knockout numbers but a history of submission defense issue (not even really history he dropped 2 of his last 3 fights by tapout). On the other side of the cage Donald Cerrone has shown himself to be a very skilled Muay Thai striker despite a lack of knockouts (only 1) but his submission numbers are huge. Cerrone’s win over Dennis Siver is the exact series of events that Guillard experienced against Joe Lauzon: a quick knockdown on the feet followed by a submission finish. Guillard knows that if this fight goes to the ground he is in serious trouble, but having watched Cerrone dismantle Jeremy Stephens in impressive fashsion with just his striking I’m not sure how much of an advantage Guillard will have on the feet, if any. There are two major points of interest heading into this bout that both really favour Cerrone- First Guillard and Cerrone use to train together at Jackson’s so they have experience working with each other, but it is advantage Cowboy. Cerrone’s Coaching staff lead by Greg Jackson are going to he very familiar with Guillard’s strengths and weaknesses and be able to devise a plan that should put Cerrone is a great place to win this fight. Secondly, the issue of altitude could rear its ugly head again. Guillard has a tendency to expend a lot of energy with his attack and if this fight goes long he could really slow down. Cerrone will have to deal with the same issues, but they wont be nearly as impactful for Cowboy based on where each fighter trains. Guillard use to train in Albuquerque New Mexico with Cerrone, but has since switch to Fort Lauderdale, Florida to train with the Blackzillian’s camp. Comparing their altitudes with where the fight is taking place we see a huge difference: Albuquerque- 5312ft, Fort Lauderdale- 9ft and Denver ranges from 5130 to 5680ft so their is a clear advantage again for Cerrone. If Guillard can hurt Cowboy with one of his big power punches he could pull this off, but that sounds like a puncher’s chance and not worth the bet. I will use Cowboy during most of my parlays as I have a lot of confidence that he pulls this one out. I will also take a look at a potential Prop play for Cerrone to win by submission to slightly increase his value.
Frankie Edgar 2.50 vs Benson Henderson 1.56
This will be the third straight time the UFC LW title has been tied up in a rematch situation, unfortunately for Frankie Edgar this will be the first time that he has enter the second fight without the title around his waist. At UFC 144 I predicted Henderson to walk away with the title via decision and the fight played out pretty close to what I expected. I was a little surprised how Edgar was able to get Henderson off his feet 5 times on 12 attempts, but considering he didn’t maintain any real advantage after securing the takedowns it was a non factor. The difference between Henderson and Frankie’s previous opponents is that Henderson is able to match Frankie in speed and cardio along with being the physically stronger and larger opponent. Maynard was bigger and stronger but not as fast and Penn lacked the cardio and as a result Frankie was able to exploit those advantages to earn the win, but he was unable to do the same against Benson. Frankie will have worked hard and probably has made some changes to his approach but I don’t think he will do enough to get the job done. I expect Henderson to remain motivated not just to remain Champion, but he knows there is a potential rematch with Anthony Pettis looming where he can get back the lose he suffered in his final WEC appearance. Henderson takes this fight, at $1.56 I like him to work pretty much on all of my parlays ( I did break him up on my parlays in the Bet Pack, but I would have no problem adding him to anyone of them). Another option for Henderson is to take him by decision to increase his value (check the prop section). For Frankie I would be more tempted to take him on a small “what the hell” bet to win by knockout which pays in $11.50 range simply because of the value and if he is going to win this fight he would have to catch Henderson and stop him. The high altitude (Broken Record) can play havoc on fighters and considering that Ben is the larger fighter we could see him slowdown in the later stages giving Edgar a chance to steal the fight late, but that scenario is unlikely at best. Frankie is a gamer, but I just don’t see him worth a play unless you can find him somewhere closer to $3.00. Good Fight, sit back and enjoy it.
Top 5 Confidence Bets (1- Most Confident to Win outright)
1. Benson Henderson
2. Yushin Okami
3. Donald Cerrone
4. Nik Lentz
5. Max Holloway
Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
1. Ed Herman 2.71- see the Fight Breakdown for new information that has pushed him to #1
2. Max Holloway 2.03
3. Benson Henderson 1.56
4. Ken Stone 2.05
5. Jarred Hamman 1.90
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
Eiji Mitsuoka/Nik Lentz Total Rounds Over 2.5- Lentz is already known for his grinding style of wrestling control and I expect him to be extra cautious here fighting at altitude and in a new weightclass to avoid buring himself out. If Mitsuoka can’t keep Lentz off of him look for the wrestler to work to maintain top control, but not take any chances that could lead to a submission or reversal opportunity for his opponent. A decision is a very likely outcome here.
Dennis Bermudez/Tommy Hayden Total Rounds Over 2.5- If this is a grappling based fight, a TKO is a possibility, but I could also see Hayden doing just enough to defend and tie Bermudez up from the bottom position for a full 3 rounds. If the fight remains vertical like grappler vs grappler fights have a tendency to then it could be a not so technical kickboxing fight that also goes the distance.
Donald Cerrone to Win by Submission $2.40- Not much of explanation needed here, Guillard has a history of getting submitted, and Cerrone has a history of submitting opponents. I would have to think Greg Jackson will key on Guillards and weakness and have Cerrone to set something up that will lead to the fight going to the ground. I was surprised to see this prop at $2.40 and with this high a number it adds some solid value to a Cerrone win.
Ben Henderson to win by Decision $2.21- Frankie Edgar has proven to be an incredibly difficult guy to finish in his career which makes taking Henderson to retain his title via decision at $2.21 a pretty solid bet here. I would recommend this prop of above all others, but there are a couple listed below which could be interesting.
Ben Henderson to win by Submission $9.40 or by Knockout $5.40- I just said Edgar is a tough guy to finish, so you might scratch your head with this one but, I have my reasons. First Edgar has been taking a ridiculous amount of damage over the last 3 fights and has been hurt in each of them. If Henderson can again pile up the damage on his smaller opponent he could pick up a late victory by KO or more likely TKO. The other option is Henderson by submission, in the last fight he caught Frankie in a tight guillotine and although he didn’t finish him it was pretty close. Again if Frankie gets beaten up late he could find himself vulnerable to a submission, most likely that nasty guillotine of Benson’s. I think these are long shots, but still worth a look if you have a little extra cash to spend and if i had to pick one I would go with Henderson by Knockout at $5.40.