TUF 21 Finale Bet Pack

Parlay Header

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Josh Samman $2.35 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: George Sullivan $1.65 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Darrell Montague $1.83
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Price: $7.10 x Bet: 8 units
Payout: 56.8 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Maximo Blanco $1.72 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Trevor Smith $2.13 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Stephan Thompson $1.50 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Jorge Masvidal $1.40 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: $7.70 x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 46.2 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Samman/ Magalhaes Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.77 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Waterson/ Magana Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.20
Selection 3: Sullivan/ Waters Under 2.5 Total Rounds $2.40
Selection 4: Montague/ Gates Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.78
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Price: $16.64 x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 66.54 units
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Josh Samman $2.35 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Trevor Smith $2.13 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: George Sullivan $1.65 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Waterson/ Magana Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.20
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Price: $18.17 x Bet: 4 units
Payout: 72.68 units
 

George Sullivan $1.65 vs Dominic Waters $2.58 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

With limit time between UFC 189 and the TUF 21 Finale, and UFN 71 looming on the horizon these breakdowns are going to be quick. Sullivan pays well, but considering the extremely short notice that Waters will be debuting with I am a little perplexed with the line. I figured Sullivan would be a much larger favourite. I think his style will be difficult for Waters to overcome and if the cut is draining Sullivan’s physicality will punish him. I am leaning towards a Gold parlay leg here, but I might scale Mr. Sullivan back to a Silver depending on the rest of the card.

4 STARS

Dan Miller $1.79 vs Trevor Smith $2.13 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This bout has the potential to be a nice back and forth scrap. I really like Miller and based on his personal life I would love to see him win and potentially pick up bonus or 2. Unfortunately, I can’t back him coming off a significant amount of time off. Miller hasn’t fought in 2+ years and he is in his mid-30’s, that will be tough to overcome. Smith is flawed fighter, but his greatest flaw is his chin and Miller doesn’t have that type of power. Smith has fought 5 times since Miller’s last appearance, he is bigger, and he has the wrestling skills to reproduce Miller’s difficulties with being out grappled. Smith hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire of late, so he slips to the Silver section for me.

4 STARS

Josh Samman $2.35 vs Caio Magalhaes $1.70 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Magalhaes has won 4 in a row, but its a really weak 4 fight winning streak if that makes any sense. He started it with 2 wins over guys that were dominating him until 1 gassed very hard and the other suffered an injury that cost him the 2nd half of the fight. After back to back quick knockouts and he is suddenly 4-1 in the UFC and looks like a killer. Samman is the better athlete and is returning to action after a reasonable break between fights, which was not the case for his bout with Gordon. Samman needs to be careful early on, but Magalhaes’s lack of wrestling/ grappling success and stiff striking style will finally catch up to him. I think Magalhaes is being significantly over valued and Samman will slide into my Gold parlay leg at this price.

4 STARS

Maximo Blanco $1.72 vs Mike De La Torre $2.28 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

What bat sh*t crazy thing is Blanco going to do in this fight? He seems to have gotten himself under control, but that could mean he is overdue. This fight should be fireworks as both guys are action fighters. De La Torre could wins this bout in 1 of 2 ways; either he cracks Blanco and becomes the first to knock him out or capitalizes on a slowdown and wins a decision. I feel the circumstances that Blanco takes this fight under are more likely. He either out strikes him on the feet and/or reproduces De La Torre’s defensive wrestling issues and grinds him out on the mat. Blanco’s questionable Fight IQ and unpredictability makes him too much of a risk to include him on my top investment, but based on his value he make sense on a secondary play.

4 STARS

Darrell Montague $1.83 vs Willie Gates $2.13

Talk about drawing some tough competition to start your UFC run. The 3 fights that have included these 2 fighter have also included a trio of former title challengers. Montague held his own early with Dodson before getting nuked and he had his moments against Horiguchi as well. Gates was very much in the fight until getting submitted late by Moraga. Despite an 0-3 run they have made a decent account of themselves. Gates is a massive Flyweight and his size could lead him to victory if he can test Montague’s chin, but a speed disadvantage and susceptibility to being taken down will limit his chances. Montague should focus on his takedowns as Montague looked out of place on the mat and Moraga was able to take him down with ease. Montague is a better fighter then his recent outings would suggest and at this price I see him being a contributor to the Gold parlay.

4 STARS

Russell Doane $1.27 vs Jerrod Sanders $4.25

I think this line is off. I like Doane to win, but I don’t see him being this big of a favourite. Sanders is better then what we have seen so far and I gave him some thought as a possible live dog here. Doane is a No Play and I will think about the potential of making a counter bet on Sanders.

4 STARS

Michelle Waterson $1.17 vs Angela Magana $5.72 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is clearly a no play for me as I think Waterson takes it, but a debuting fighter at this price makes no sense from a betting perspective. Magana is probably on her way out, she needs this win to stay relevant. I will enjoy a good women’s scrap, but keep my hands in my pockets.

4 STARS

Jorge Masvidal $1.40 vs Cezar Ferreira $3.35 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a weird fight, as I said on the show I am having a hard time visualizing how they will stack up. We have a former MW squaring off against a former LW, and Ferreira wasn’t small at 185 pounds. I think this is a desperation cut and it simply won’t go well. If Masvidal can survive the early onslaught I see him outworking a physically inhibited Ferreira for the duration of the fight. Be aware that Masvidal will most likely feel/ look better considering he is not cutting to 155. The price is a little lower then I hoped it would be, I will most likely pull him back to the Silver section based on the unknown with how these two perform physically.

4 STARS

Stephan Thompson $1.50 vs Jake Ellenberger $2.86 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

How the mighty have fallen. Ellenberger temporarily righted the ship against Kos, but all indications are that he is done competing at the top level. Is Thompson elite? He has looked good, but outside of Brown (who wasn’t there yet) he hasn’t faced anyone as accomplished as Jake. If Ellenberger can wrestling with consistency it could be his key to victory, especially over 5 rounds. That being said, he has struggle tremendously with superior strikers. Rory kept him frozen on the outside and Lawler made it perfectly clear that Jake was going to get second best all fight. I think Thompson reproduces those issues and potentially lands something significant enough to put Jake down. with this being his first step up to the big leagues I won’t be going all in here and most likely using Thompson as a mid level parlay contributor.

* With just a minimal amount of time before UFN 71 needs my attention I am going to forgo breaking down and predicting the 2 TUF related bouts.

1. Michelle Waterson $1.17 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. George Sullivan $1.65 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Josh Samman $2.35 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. Russell Doane $1.27

5. Darrell Montague $1.83

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6. Jorge Masvidal $1.40 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Maximo Blanco $1.72 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Stephan Thompson $1.50 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Trevor Smith $2.13 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

1. Josh Samman $2.35 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med– a lot of this play as to do with my lack of faith in his opponent. Luck has played a big role in his current streak. Samman capitalizes on Magalhaes’s mistakes after he slows down.

2. Trevor Smith $2.13 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med– Miller has been out of action for too long, has too many distractions outside the cage, and has struggled with similar profiled fighters.

3. George Sullivan $1.65 – A short notice opponent with low level experience. Sullivan takes the role of the favourite for the first time in his UFC career, lets see how he responds.

4. Darrell Montague $1.83 – Montague has been outgunned in each of his last 2 fights by superior opposition. He is a much better fighter then most perceive him to be and that will show here.

5. Maximo Blanco $1.72 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med– ‘Maxi’ appears to have found his grove and will have a distinct wrestling advantages. He has used it in the past and will hopefully do the same again here.

1. Jerrod Sanders $4.25 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med / I don’t think we have seen the best Sanders has to offer and while I think Doane is a better fighter I don’t think it is by the gap that this line would suggest. A small single bet on Sanders is understandable.

2. Jake Ellenberger $2.86  / He represents a step up for Thompson and he certainly has avenues to secure that victory. He is far from a dead dog in this scenario and he might be worth a small bet as a hedge if you need Thompson for a parlay. Also consider making a play on Jake after the opening round if Thompson starts strong. If Thompson fades after a strong start a Live bet will have more value on Ellenberger.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Information.

Prop Bets

George Sullivan/ Dominic Waters

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Dan Miller/ Trevor Smith 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Josh Samman/ Caio Magalhaes Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.77 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Magalhaes has taken out back to back opponents in under 60 seconds, which makes him a prime candidate to hit the under 2.5 rounds. Samman has finished 3 straight opponents and 11 of his last 12 fights before the end of round 2. Someone gets the job done here. Play the Under.

Darrell Montague/ Willie Gates

See the Betting Scenario Section.

Michelle Waterson/ Angela Magana Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.20

Waterson has finishes in 10 of her 12 wins, including 10 of her last 11. She has also been finished in 3 of her 4 defeats. Submissions have accounted for 4 of Magana’s 7 losses and she lost by TKO on the show. There is the potential that Waterson has a slight regression in her finishing ability in her UFC debut, but at 2.5 rounds and a decent price it is worth a look.

 

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