TUF 20 & UFC on FOX 13- Retrospective & Bet Pack Review

Scott Johnson

A double bill of exciting action started Friday Night with the Ultimate Fighter 20 Finale and the crowning of the champion of the newest and lightest UFC division. The second half of the twin bill went down on FOX and was headlined by a very entertaining and a little controversial Heavyweight scrap. The bet pack produced a decent return (on the second night), my prediction record was mildly respectable (13-9), and now we will take a look at my ‘Pick 6’ of interesting happenings from the past weekend.

Do Bronx Rising

Charles Oliveira picked up one of the bigger wins of his career with a wide decision win over the heavy handed Jeremy Stephens. Do Bronx showed continued improvement in his striking to pair with his already lethal grappling. To the surprise of many, he routinely controlled the action on the feet backing Stephens down. He also scored several takedowns which put him in position to attack on the mat. The Brazilian did fail to make weight yet again, but if he can get those issues under control he could find himself garner more attention within a strong division.

Jamie Varner Retires

The former WEC champion fell for the fourth time in a row and that proved to be enough. Jamie Varner announced his retirement from the sport shortly after suffering a first round submission loss to Drew Dober. He reignited his UFC career with an upset win over the heavily favoured Edson Barboza and added in a victory over Melvin Guillard, but failed to find consistency in his second tenure with the promotion. Best of luck moving forward Mr. Varner.

Joanna Jędrzejczyk- Strawweight top contender

In a very closely contested Strawweight battle, Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged out the favoured Claudia Gadelha via split decision. From a personal standpoint, this fight was incredibly costly as it was the only loser on a couple of parlays. With the victory, Joanna keeps her undefeated run intact and will most likely face the newly crowned divisional champion on a future card. I felt the fight was very close and it could have gone either way as the Brazilian appeared to dictate the majority of the action.

…and still Champion

She entered the house as the Invicta FC champion and #1 seed, and even after 3 tournament victories to reach the finals she was still the underdog in the finals. Carla Esparza dismissed those notions, with 3rd round submission victory over Rose Namajunas. With the win Esparza cements herself atop the division, but challenges lie ahead with the aforementioned Jedrzejczyk and current WSOF champion Jessica Aguilar (who holds a win over Carla) looming in the distance.

Heavyweight Heavy Main card

Three of the four main card bouts seen on FOX were in the Heavyweight division. Opening the show, Matt Mitrione continued his surge up the rankings with a first round stoppage of former title contender Gabe Gonzaga. A matchup with the next man on the card to get his hand raised, Alistair Overeem would be interesting.

Overeem got back in the win column in brutal fashion, with a first round stoppage of Stefan Struve. After a few tedious moments on the feet, Alistair eventually landed a nice takedown and followed it up with thunderous strikes to render his adversary unconscious. Overeem still has a lot to prove before a title shot could once again be considered, but this was a big step.

The main event saw Junior Dos Santos return to action and win a very entertaining striking battle with Stipe Miocic. Stipe appeared to get the better of the former champ in rounds 1 and 2 before Junior found his grove. In the end, two judges gave the Brazilian 4 of 5 rounds which was a little hard to swallow considering how good Stipe looked early on. Regardless, even in defeat Miocic has improved his standing within the division and Junior while bloodied and battered- got his hand raised.

Nate Diaz Done?

In the co-main event, Nate Diaz continued his negative PR run with a one-sided defeat at the hands of future title challenger Rafael Dos Anjos. Dos Anjos did as well if not better than most predicted, battering Nate from start to finish. Diaz had come into the fight significantly over the Lightweight limit, which only added to the recent complaints and anti-UFC attitude he had be carrying in the media. The peculiar circumstances coupled with the loss prompted Dana White to suggest the former title challenger needed to either get serious about his career or consider retirement. I felt the effort, or lack thereof could have warranted a dismissal from the company- only time will tell.

Make sure to take a look at the bet pack posted below, the TUF 20 portion of the pack produced well under the norm, but the rebound was significant the next night. The FOX pack produced $1478 in winnings, Value List Winners: #2, #3, #5, #4 was void, and a perfect 6 for 6 set of prop bets. We only have one event left in 2014, let’s make it a good one!


TUF 20 & Fox 13

Parlay Breakdowns

Gold Plays

===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: JEREMY STEPHENS $1.95
===================================================
Price: $100 x Bet: $1.95
Payout: $195
 
===================================================
Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: DARON CRUICKSHANK $1.59
Selection 2: ROSE NAMAJUNAS $1.61
===================================================
Price: $100 x Bet: $2.56
Payout: $256
 
===================================================
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1: MATT MITRIONE $1.80 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: RAFAEL DOS ANJOS $1.45 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
===================================================
Price: $100 x Bet: $2.61
Payout: $261
 
Silver Plays
 
===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: JESSICA PENNE $1.88 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: EMILY KAGAN $2.53
Selection 3: DARON CRUICKSHANK/ KJ NOONS Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.75
===================================================
Price: $8.33 x Bet: $100
Payout: $833
 
===================================================
Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: YANCY MEDEIROS $1.43 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: ALEX CHAMBERS $3.16
===================================================
Price: $4.52 x Bet: $100
Payout: $452
===================================================
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1: STIPE MIOCIC $4.58
===================================================
Price: $4.58 x Bet: $100
Payout: $458
 
===================================================
Parlay #4
===================================================
Selection 1: DEREK BRUNSON/ ED HERMAN Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.66- Void
Selection 2: BEN SAUNDERS $1.44 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: ALISTAIR OVEREEM/ STEFAN STRUVE Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.45 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: MATT MITRIONE $1.80 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
===================================================
Price: $3.76 x Bet: $100
Payout: $376
 
Bronze Plays
 
===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: HEATHER CLARK $2.74 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: LISA ELLIS $3.99
Selection 3: JEREMY STEPHENS $1.95
===================================================
Price: $21.32 x Bet: $100
Payout: $2132
 
===================================================
Parlay #2
===================================================
Selection 1: JOANNE CALDERWOOD/ SEO HEE HAM Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.05
Selection 2: ROSE NAMAJUNAS to Win by Submission $2.20
Selection 3: DARON CRUICKSHANK $1.59
===================================================
Price: $7.18 x Bet: $100
Payout: $718
 
===================================================
Parlay #3
===================================================
Selection 1: JUNIOR DOS SANTOS/ STIPE MIOCIC Total Rounds Over 2.5 $2.50 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: ANTHONY BIRCHAK/ IAN ENTWISTLE Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.61 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: BEN SAUNDERS $1.44 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selecti0n 4: RAFAEL DOS ANJOS $1.45 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
===================================================
Price: $8.41 x Bet: $100
Payout: $841
 
WILDCARD
===================================================
Parlay #1
===================================================
Selection 1: DARON CRUICKSHANK $1.59
Selection 2: JEREMY STEPHENS $1.95
Selection 3: ROSE NAMAJUNAS $1.61
Selection 4: RAFAEL DOS ANJOS $1.45 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 5: BEN SAUNDERS $1.44 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 6: MATT MITRIONE $1.80 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
===================================================
Price: $18.77 x Bet: $100
Payout: $1877
 

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

EMILY KAGAN $2.53 vs ANGELA HILL $1.60

We have a long way to go so I will be direct and to the point. Hill is very inexperienced and while Kagan doesn’t have that much more experience, she has fought better competition. This fight seems like a fantastic EPU candidate with some solid value on the dog.

AISLING DALY $1.44 vs ALEX CHAMBERS $3.16

Daly hasn’t impressed me and I think the cut to 115 is a little tough for her as she has fought more at 125. Chambers fought finalist Rose in the first round so we don’t really know how far she could have gone with a different opponent. Chambers is a solid dog and unlike the first fight her lack of experience doesn’t concern me that much. She will show big improvement from the show and surprise many with her slick grappling and quick kicking game. Solid value, but again a little bit of the unknown here prevents Chambers from being a top bet.

BEC RAWLINGS $1.54 vs HEATHER CLARK $2.74 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This pick was a bit of a gut call. Rawlings fought for the Invicta title and was ranked higher then Clark, but I think Clark has more to offer then what we saw on the show. I am counting on Clark’s ground game to give her a bit of an edge here. I think this fight could really go either way and as a result the value on the dog is the bet to make.

JOANNE CALDERWOOD $1.20 vs SEO HEE HAM $5.76 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

A straight up bet is simply not warranted here, at least on Jo Jo. She was a bit of a letdown on the show and should look to rebound. Ham is undersized and making her fight appearance outside of the Asian MMA circuit. If Ham can out quick Calderwood she could pull the upset, but I doubt it. I am leaning towards a total play here instead of a straight up play.

TECIA TORRES $1.18 vs ANGELA MAGANA $5.76 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Torres failed to get out of the first round despite her #3 ranking. She then got a second chance, made good, but then was ousted by Esparza. She pays to little and is too soon in her career to even consider a bet at this price. Magana is garnering some online focus, but I think she struggles to match her opponent’s pace. I will take a look at this total too as the best betting option.

LISA ELLIS $3.99 vs FELICE HERRIG $1.29 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I keep hearing that Ellis is going to surprise us, which has almost entirely discouraged me from backing Felice. I think Lisa gets a bit of negative rap for her loss to Penne being so violent. Additionally, I think Herrig gets more credit for what she is capable because of her online following. No play on Herrig, potentially a small bet on Ellis.

JESSICA PENNE $2.05 vs RANDA MARKOS $1.88 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like Randa, she is Canadian and so am I- so clearly I was pulling for her to make the finals and win the strap. I really hope she gets to face Felice again and add an official notch on her belt. Unfortunately, I think Penne is simply too experience and too well rounded. I was a little shocked that we have a pick’em fight here. Penne more experience, higher level, better striker, dangerous on the mat. I think a single bet on Penne in the Gold section is appropriate.

YANCY MEDEIROS $1.43 vs JOE PROCTOR $3.16 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This could be a very scrappy fight. Both guys like to throw down and won’t shy away from a scrap. Neither guy has a really great wrestling game, so I expect most action will take place on the mat. I think Yancy is the more diverse striker and his length will keep Proctor out of range. A parlay leg in the Gold section makes the most sense for me.

DARON CRUICKSHANK $1.63 vs KJ NOONS $2.65

I really like the price we are getting here. Noons is relatively one dimensional and despite his 2 fight winning streak, his time in the UFC has been anything but good. Cruickshank is far too diverse for him with his kicking game and wrestling. This fight seems similar to my pick of Masvidal over Noons back in Strikeforce. I will play Cruickshank probably in the gold section in a the parlay.

CHARLES OLIVEIRA $2.00 vs JEREMY STEPHENS $1.95

A very workable line here as well. Olvieira is nasty on the mat and pretty darn capable on the feet, but its the power of Stephens that is the issue here. I struggle to see Stephens being taken down and he should have the smarts to keep it standing and use his power. Stephens unloads with power and takes this one. At this price a play straight up or in a smaller parlay is warranted and I will look at the total as well.

CARLA ESPARZA $2.36 vs ROSE NAMAJUNAS $1.63

Colour me disappointed. I assumed that Esparza being the former champ would give her the favourite position or at least a little closer of a line then this. Rose has been a killer on the show, but she is still very young both in age and MMA experience. She beat Emily Kagan via sub in the third frame, but against higher level comp how will she fair if she can’t get that fight ended inside the first round or even 2. I still like her in this bout to simply be too much for Carla. At $1.61 she should make the cut as a Gold parlay member and the prop bet depending on the total could be worth a look as well.

ANTHONY BIRCHAK $1.43 vs IAN ENTWISTLE $3.06

I might sound a bit like a broken record here, but I am not that that excited in any of the first 4 fights on the card- at least from a betting standpoint. Of the 4, I do prefer 2 a little more and this is one of them. Birchak should be able to deny the early sub attempts from Entwistle and then go on the attack of his own. I might play Birchak as a lower level parlay or not at all. The Under theory is live as well.

DUSITN KIMURA $3.36 vs HENRY CEJUDO $1.39 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is the other of the opening 2 fights that I have a little interest in playing but not much. Kimura has struggled with wrestlers, most notably Chico Camus. Cejudo should simply be too much for him. I will most likely consider a lower level parlay play here, but the Under is a real possibility. I still need to determine which of these two fights is the better candidate.

DAVID MICHAUD $1.48 vs GARETT WHITELEY $2.86 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Neither guy has impressed and the loser is probably gone. If I had to make a play here Michaud is probably the better bet based on I cage performance, but at this price it is probably better to simply leave this one alone.

JOE ELLENBERGER $1.38 vs BRYAN BARBERENA $3.36 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Of the first 4 bouts this one is the fight I have the least interest in playing. In fact, it is a flat out No Play from me. Ellenberger didn’t look that good in his debut despite the win and Double B is making his debut after a long layoff. “That’ll do pig.”

DEREK BRUNSON $1.31 vs ED HERMAN $3.79

This fight would almost fit in with the first 4 in interest level, but both guys are far more familiar commodities. I think Brunson wins this quite handily, as the odds would suggest, but Herman continues to defy the odds. Herman is a tough vet and while most of what little physical gifts he had on are their way out he could still put up a bit of a fight. Brunson could work on a parlay, but leaving this fight alone w0uldn’t be the worst mistake of your life either.

JAMIE VARNER $1.31 vs DREW DOBER $3.79 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is it for Varner. If he losses this fight that will make it 4 straight defeats against a guy barely holding his spot in the division. A cut is almost a certainty here. I think Varner should handle this fight wherever it goes, but he should have beaten each of his last 2 opponents so you don’t know what could pop up that prevents him from grabbing another win. At this price he is probably a fringe option as he doesn’t do much for your return and the prospect of seeing your evening ruined by another fluke is there.

BEN SAUNDERS $1.44 vs JOE RIGGS $3.01 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

This is a fight that is a nice throwback and should be pretty darn entertaining. Ben should be superior on both the ground and the feet, but Diesel is not to be overlooked. At this price Ben could make an appearance on a parlay if you need to round out your bet cards. The Total is also worth looking at.

CLAUDIA GADELHA $1.39 vs JOANNA JEDRZEJCZYK $3.26

This should be a good scrap and produce the first title challenger for the new champion. JJ has a better chance to win this fight then the odds would suggest, but Gadelha is a monster. I suspect she will take this fight to the floor and keep it there for long durations of the bout. I am leaning towards Gadelha as a leg of a parlay, but at this price it isn’t overly exciting. The Over might be an option too.

JOHN MORAGA $1.25 vs WILLIE GATES 4.48 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

There are a lot of fights that I seem uninterested in at least betting a side. Moraga isn’t worth a bet even in the mid $1.40 range as I feel he is beatable and Gates is a wildcard. What I do like is the Over and it pays much better then Moraga and isn’t nearly as risk as a play on Gates.

GABRIEL GONZAGA $2.13 vs MATT MITRIONE $1.80 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Both of these guys have clear paths to victory; Gabe by submission and Matt by knockout. The difference is cardio, Gabe can get the submission in the first but after that look for him to slow down considerably. For Mitrione he can score the KO early or land it later as Gabe starts to slow down. Gonzaga can strike, but his ability to get the better of Mitrione is minimal. I think Mitrione is a solid play simply because he has a wider window in which to secure the victory. I plan on pairing him up in a 2 leg parlay or potentially a single bet if I can’t find a suitable partner. The under is also worth a look.

ALISTAIR OVEREEM $1.37 vs STEFAN STRUVE $3.57 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Well for starters, there is no way I can play the Overeem side at this price- that was expected. I 100% advocate a bet on Struve. He pays quite well and it would appear that one well-timed counter could easily out the Reem down. So play Struve and play the Under. It doesn’t pay that strong, but I really doubt that this fight needs more then a round to find its conclusion.

NATE DIAZ $3.15 vs RAFAEL DOS ANJOS $1.45 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

If there is a site offering a solid paying bet on Nate Diaz getting cut if he loses this fight, make that play. I think the UFC has put him in a fight that will be difficult for him to win and with all the issues that he is creating- contract, Reebok, missing the open workout, spouting off about CM Punk the UFC would gladly like to be rid of him. What I would suggest is a playing RDA straight up and he might be worth pairing with Mitrione. He offers a nightmare stylistically for Nate and his price isn’t bad.

JUNIOR DOS SANTOS $1.26 vs STIPE MIOCIC $4.58

As good as JDS has been, I think he is slightly over valued. He is by the far the best fighter that Stipe has faced, but outside of Cain who has Junior faced that offers as much as Stipe does? Mark Hunt- striker, Frank Mir- grappler, Carwin- power puncher with overrated wrestling, Nelson- One Punch and you get the point. Yes Stipe hasn’t beaten anyone on Junior’s level, but this is a wide birth. I think the post-title fight letdown is in-play here as well for Junior. He has now been trampled twice by Cain and unless Werdum removes Velasquez from the title picture Junior vs Cain 4 isn’t on the Horizon. Look for Stipe to use shorter, crisper boxing and a lot of movement to outwork and pick Junior apart. JDS tends to wing wild punches and not set them up, while Stipe is much more technical. If Stipe works his wrestling into it, even failed attempts that make Junior work will be significant. I would like to see a single bet on Stipe here, but because he is facing arguably the best HW not named Cain it slides to the Silver section. The Over is also worth consideration as well.


TUF 20 Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. DARON CRUICKSHANK $1.59

2. JOANNE CALDERWOOD $1.20 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. TECIA TORRES $1.18 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. YANCY MEDEIROS $1.43 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. JEREMY STEPHENS $1.95

====================

6. ROSE NAMAJUNAS $1.61

7. JESSICA PENNE $1.88 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. EMILY KAGAN $2.53

9. FELICE HERRIG $1.29 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. ALEX CHAMBERS $3.16

11. HEATHER CLARK $2.74 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

 

UFC on FOX 13 Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. BEN SAUNDERS $1.44 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

2. JAMIE VARNER $1.31

3. RAFAEL DOS ANJOS $1.45 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

4. DEREK BRUNSON $1.31

5. HENRY CEJUDO $1.39 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

====================

6. CLAUDIA GADELHA $1.39

7. MATT MITRIONE $1.80 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. JOHN MORAGA $1.25 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. ALISTAIR OVEREEM $1.37 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. ANTHONY BIRCHAK $1.43

11. DAVID MICHAUD $1.48 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. STIPE MIOCIC $4.58

13. JOE ELLENBERGER $1.38


Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. JEREMY STEPHENS $1.95 His TDD needs to be on point and the opportunities will present themselves to land with power if he doesn’t force them.
2. EMILY KAGAN $2.53 She has more experience against better competition, but will need to be on point against a young developing fighter.
3. ROSE NAMAJUNAS $1.61 Rose by submission almost landed on this list, but I am trying to keep things simple. Too much for Carla on the feet and the mat.
4. JESSICA PENNE 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med $1.88 I like her experience here, but Randa is very tough. It will be a close fight.
5. ALEX CHAMBERS $3.16 A better price then Clark and with her opponent not making weight I like this play even more.

 

# Price Explanation
1. STIPE MIOCIC   $4.58 Not much of a shock here on a card where I called few upsets.
2. MATT MITRIONE 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med $1.80 Matty can make a nice jump in the rankings if he wins this fight, he has to be careful not to be put on his back early though.
3. BEN SAUNDERS/ JOE RIGGS Total Rounds Under 1.5 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med  $2.45 Saunders is a fighter’s fighter and gets after it early. Riggs gets a rude return.
4. DEREK BRUNSON/ ED HERMAN Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.66 There are ways that this fight ends early, but I would expect to see the judges getting involved mainly on the basis of Brunson’s top control.
5. ANTHONY BIRCHAK/ IAN ENTWISTLE Total Rounds Under 1.5 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med $1.61 Both guys are both very aggressive and very capable of finishing fights via submission. The price is a little low, but pays better then most other options.

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

  • Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
  • I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Counter Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

# Price Explanation
1. LISA ELLIS $3.99 She is better then these odds would suggest and she will give Herrig a lot more trouble then many expect.
2. STEFAN STRUVE   $3.57 All he has to do is touch Overeem’s chin one time and this fight changes course on a dime.
3.
4.
5.

The Value list for Counter Bets is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Some people might question the use of one fighter in a parlay and the other (an underdog) in a straight up bet, but here is my logic.

Scenario: the Fav is in a 3 fighter parlay and it pays $5 x your bet of $30 and the dog pays $3.50 x your bet of $10.

The underdog single bet offers a nice safety net. If he wins then you bet a total of $40 and won $35, your losses are minimal. If your parlay wins then you bet $40 and won $150, so it is still a decent profit line.

There is the possibility that you might not win either bet, but having an “insurance” style bet can keep you from going broke a lot of nights.


Prop Bets-

 EMILY KAGAN/ ANGELA HILL Total Rounds Under 2.5 $1.90- The opening 2 fights on the last card both went over, that is rare. With 2 relatively inexperienced fighters I think we have some serious Under potential. Look for Kagan to gain top position and overwhelm Hill until she breaks. With line at almost even the Books must see something here.

 JOANNE CALDERWOOD/ SEO HEE HAM Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.05- Calderwood is nasty and Ham is undersized. I see Jo Jo either catching her with something during an exchange or possibly submitting her if they hit the mat.

DARON CRUICKSHANK/ KJ NOONS Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.75- I have Cruickshank winning this fight, but the real threat for the under is Noons scoring the knockout. KJ is pretty darn tough and I don’t expect to see him get knocked out, instead a heavy does of wrestling will take this fight over.

12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med CHARLES OLIVEIRA / JEREMY STEPHENS Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.69- This is one of those fights that could be finished by either guy in the first round, but upon further investigation I think the over comes through. Stephens has gone over 1.5 rounds in 9 of his last 11 fights and Oliveira has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 5. Stephens may play it a little safe to avoid giving up a bad position early and a finish could happen, it will most likely be in the second half.

 ROSE NAMAJUNAS to Win by Submission $2.20- I don’t think I need a big explanation for this one. Rose is nasty on the mat and Carla will more then likely look to take it there. Rose pressures her on the feet, Carla looks to fall back on her wrestling and makes a mistake out of desperation.

12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med ANTHONY BIRCHAK/ IAN ENTWISTLE Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.61- This falls under my opening prelim under theory Both guys are submission finishers and Entwistle’s aggressive style will either end it for him or leave him open to be finished. Play the Under.

DEREK BRUNSON/ ED HERMAN Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.66- To me this is the best betting option for this fight. Herman is tough and should be able too avoid getting submitted, but Brunson will spend most of the fight on top. On the feet, neither man is overly adept at finishing, so I think the Over is the play.

12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med BEN SAUNDERS/ JOE RIGGS Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.45- 3 of Ben’s last 4 fights have ended with the Under. Prior to his last fight, 9 straight bouts involved Riggs went well under the total regardless of the winner. I think Saunders comes looking for the finish early and get its.

12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med JOHN MORAGA/ WILLIE GATES Total Rounds Over 1.5 $1.60- The final fight before the main card so I will take a shot at the Over. Gates is a bit of a wildcard and Moraga always seems to find away to mess up my night- the only fight I got wrong on the Fox card (seriously all winner and I think I hit all my prop bets too) when he debuted prevented an extremely profitable night from being life changing. Play the Over.

12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med GABRIEL GONZAGA/ MATT MITRIONE Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.53- Not a great return, but you have both guys working in your favour. Gabe’s submission and Matty’s power. Play the Under.

 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med ALISTAIR OVEREEM/ STEFAN STRUVE Total Rounds Under 1.5 $1.45- HAHAHAH, I won’t waste the pixels. Wouldn’t it be funny if this fight went to the judges?

12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med JUNIOR DOS SANTOS/ STIPE MIOCIC Total Rounds Over 2.5 $2.50- The fact that they are giving a HW fight 2.5 rounds is an indication of how the oddsmakers think this fight might play out. Stipe stays technical, picks away at Junior and looks to avoid the big hammer.