Strikeforce: Tate vs Rousey- Post Fight Results & Thoughts
The weekend has come to a conclusion, two events/ 2o predictions in 48 hours and I finished the weekend with an overll record of 12-7-1. It is not a horrid record, but its not as good as I was planning for but in retrospect attempting to provide 20 accurate predictions in such a short period of time can be difficult. Strikeforce started off really rough at 0-2 but a nice recovery winning 6 of the next 7 finished the night with a 6-3 record. As for the betting side of things I again had another night of one and dones (see the results below) with multiple parlays falling one short. As promised, if I was unable to deliver at least 2 winning parlays in the deluxe pack the customers that purchased it will be emailed the password for the next show’s (UFC on Fuel TV: Nogueira vs Gustafsson) bet pack. On another note I did have a couple of solid prop suggestion and went a mediocre 6 for 10 on my top singles bet list which you can also see below. Now lets get to a few thoughts on a pretty decent Strikeforce card.
Thoughts on the Event
-there is just something missing in the overall production of Strikeforce Events, the fights were entertaining but I find the presentation to be lacking. Maybe it is because the UFC does such a great job.
-Ryan Couture picked up a nice win and with his name he is a solid candidate going forward to help build the division around. I’m not suggesting he will win or even contend for the title but he adds depth and that is important. How about Couture versus Bobby Green next time out.
-Pat Healy should be given the next title shot, I know he isn’t as marketable as Josh Thomson but this guy has beat 3 pretty good prospects and is 5-1 at lightweight. If Thomson does get the next shot as intended Healy should wait, not take a fight and keep in shape because of the injury trouble that Josh as had Pat could easily get the call to take his place.
-Caros Fodor started off really well but didn’t have an answer for the grinding style of Healy. He will be back, he is a great asset to the division and a matchup with Billy Evangelista would be a good next step.
-Roger Bowling is a stud and really is a marketable fighter. This fight was thrown together with limited notice but didn’t disappoint, I think that Scott Coker should push Bowling to drop to Lightweight, maybe match him up with a JZ Cavalcante and if he passes that test a #1 contenders bout with another top young talent.
-Brandon Saling put on a gutsy performance, but his out of cage life-choices most likely will prevent him from returning to the promotion.
-Sarah Kaufman vs Alexis Davis was a fantastic display of heart and a willingness to compete. Both of these girls left it all in the cage and deserve recognition for their efforts. Had this been two men in the cage, you would hear Fight of the Year Candidate would being tossed around in reference to this tilt. Kaufman gets the champ next, if she doesn’t that is a travesty. As far as Alexis Davis goes maybe a matchup with Liz Carmouche after a well deserved rest.
- Jacare showed that he a top level talent competing in a shallow pool. His striking looks to be rounding into form, and his ground game is already elite. He should most likely wait for the winner of Kennedy vs Rockhold for a title shot.
-Bristol Marunde put up a decent fight on short notice against a fighter well above his pay grade. I hope that Marunde sticks around, maybe a matchup with Adlan Amagov makes sense for both fighters.
-Scott Smith just doesn’t have it anymore, that probably could have been said several times recently as he has dropped multiple fights that he really wasn’t ever in from a competitive standpoint. He will probably stick around because he is a name to throw in the cage with a young fighter needing exposure and on the positive side we didn’t see him suffer another brutal knockout.
-Lumumba Sayers is now 2-1 in the company with 2 first round finishes of Smith and Antwain Britt, this should count for something in a division that has a limited number of fighters at the top. Sayers vs Keith Jardine could be an interesting fight or they could push him (maybe too quickly) and match Sayers up with Robbie Lawler.
-Paul Daley didn’t look good, he looked to be a little shocked with Misaki putting the pressure on him and I found it ironic that he kept using takedowns and then expected to win the fight because he laid on top of his opponent who was winning the striking exchanges- only incorrect pick on the main card.
-Misaki impressed me, adds another name to the Welterweight division. He will probably get a shot at the title if he can win one more fight and the division finds a champ (Woodley vs Marquardt most likely for the strap). Maybe Misaki vs Evangelista Santos, a solid scrap to bring him a little more notoriety on this side of the ocean.
-Thomson did what he had to do in order to win, based on his struggles with injuries this could be his last chance to contend for a title. He was able to control KJ on the ground but not much else, at least until the third round. If he hopes to beat the champ he will need to be able to do more then that.
-Noons is 0-2 in title contender fights which has to be frustrating. I understand why he was visibly upset with Josh laying on him for the first round but until he shows that he can defend the takedown with regularity his opponents are going to build a game-plan based on that. I hope not to hear a Noons vs Healy title eliminator fight announcement, how about we give Noons a lower level opponent and give him the chance to build back into contention.
-Rousey pretty much did what she expected to do. It wasn’t quite as easy as her other fights which is good, it showed how mentally tough she is battling through a failed armbar attempt, surviving a pretty interesting series of exchanges on the mat with a talented wrestler and then getting back to what brought her to the dance. Rousey vs Kaufman next, I would really like to see Marloes Coenen return to challenge for the title, but with Ronda’s strength and elite-level judo background it could be a difficult job taking that title away from her.
-Tate needs to rehab her arm, because that was brutal. She probably should have given in quicker but she has the heart of a champ and wasn’t going to relinquish her title until she absolutely had to0. I would imagine she will get another shot when she is 100% healthy, but she may need/want at least one fight before getting back in their with the “Armbar Assassin”
-Check out my updated Strikeforce Lightweight and Welterweight rankings, the rest are on their way
Strikeforce- Betting Pack=================================================== Parlay #1 - =================================================== Selection 1: Thomson, Josh $1.60 Selection 2: Sayers, Lumumba $1.55 Selection 3: Fodor, Caros $1.65 Selection 4: Huen, Conor $1.40 =================================================== Suggested Bet Amount: $50 Price:$5.73 Payout: $286.50 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Fodor, Caros $1.65 Selection 2: Daley, Paul $1.30 Selection 3: Huen, Conor $1.40 Selection 4: Rousey, Ronda $1.35 Selection 5: Bowling, Roger $1.20 =================================================== Suggested Bet Amount: $50 Price: $4.87 Payout: $243.50 =================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Fodor, Caros $1.65 Selection 2: Thomson, Josh $1.60 Selection 3: Rousey, Ronda $1.35 Selection 4: Bowling, Roger $1.20 Selection 5: Kaufman, Sarah $1.20 =================================================== Suggested Bet Amount: $50 Price: 5.13 Payout:$256.50 =================================================== Parlay #4- Statistics Star Parlay =================================================== Selection 1: Rousey, Ronda $1.35 Selection 2: Thomson, Josh $1.60 Selection 3: Sayers, Lumumba $1.55 Selection 4: Daley, Paul $1.30 Selection 5: Kaufman, Sarah $1.20 =================================================== Suggested Bet Amount: $60 Price: $5.23 Payout: $313.80
Combined UFC & Strikeforce- Betting Pack=================================================== Parlay #1 - =================================================== Selection 1: Te-Huna, James $1.33 Selection 2: Waldburger, TJ $1.87 Selection 3: Thomson, Josh $1.60 Selection 4: Daley, Paul $1.30 =================================================== Suggested Bet Amount: $50 Price: $5.17 Payout: $258.50 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Alves, Thiago $1.71 Selection 2: Perosh, Anthony $2.00 Selection 3: Sayers, Lumumba $1.55 Selection 4: Fodor, Caros $1.65 =================================================== Suggested Bet Amount: $35 Price: $8.75 Payout: $306.25 =================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Semerzier, Mackens $1.61 Selection 2: Philippou, Constantinos $2.05 Selection 3: Johnson, Demetrious $1.31 Selection 4: Kaufman, Sarah $1.20 Selection 5: Jordan, Shawn $1.48 =================================================== Suggested Bet Amount: $40 Price: 7.68 Payout: $307.20 =================================================== Parlay #4- Statistics Star Parlay =================================================== Selection 1: Miller, Cole $1.25 Selection 2: Te-Huna, James $1.33 Selection 3: Daley, Paul $1.30 Selection 4: Rousey, Ronda $1.35 Selection 5: Philippou, Constantinos $2.05 =================================================== Suggested Bet Amount: $40 Price: $5.98 Payout: $239.20
Single Bet Top 10 List (#1-highest confidence)1.) Paul Daley $1.30 2.) James Te-Huna $1.33 3.) Cole Miller $1.25 4.) Demetrious Johnson $1.31 5.) Anthony Perosh $2.15 6.) Thiago Alves $1.71 7.) Josh Thomson $1.50 8.) Ronda Rousey $1.35 9.) Constantinos Philippou $2.05 10.) Caros Fodor $1.65 *Some fighters with low value odds (i.e below $1.20 are not included)
UFC & Strikeforce Prop Pack
Fight of the Night Picks (Check back later for odds)
1) Thiago Alves vs Martin Kampmann
- This fight has the potential to be an absolute war with both fighters bringing their highly skilled and entertaining Muay Thai skills to the cage. Kampmann has a tendency to get dragged into slugfests and Alves is going to be more than willing to oblige, this will be an entertaining scrap.
2) Demetrious Johnson vs Ian McCall
- The utter speed at which these two will be moving at should be entertainment enough. Both guys bring it and do so at a high pace, McCall will be looking to prove that he is still the #1 Flyweight in the world and Johnson will be motivate after dropping his last title shot against Cruz.
3) Cole Miller vs Steven Siler
- This is a sleeper pick, I expect Miller to be motivated for the reasons I outlined in my fight break down, and Siler will recognize that a win over a solid vet will be huge for his position in the company. This might be a long shot, but the odds should reflect that don’t bet the farm but a small major could still have a big return.
Fight Method and Outcome Bets
Constantinos Philippou by KO/TKO/DQ- $5.00
-Constantinos has big power and stopped an opponent in his last fight that had a reputation for being super tough and McGee’s chin hasn’t been tested with this type of power before.
Constantinos Philippou win in 1st Round- $5.50
-See above, plus consider the fact that McGee has a tendency to get off to a slow start.
Thiago Alves to win on Points/Decision- $2.00
-Martin Kampmann is a tough guy to finish and even though Alves has brutal power this fight still could easily go the distance, consider parlaying this pick with another event.
Joseph Benavidez by KO/TKO/DQ- $5.75
-this fight has no value taking Benavidez straight up and with Benavidez’s ground game he will be taking this fight to the ground and potentially winning by submission or ground and pound TKO. Benavidez by sub pays $2.35 which isn’t bad but the $5.75 is pretty tempting, maybe consider parlaying with Alves by Decision.
Ronda Rousey vs Miesha Tate- Round Total: Under
-This odd isn’t posted yet, I would think it could be as low as 1.5 and with Ronda’s finishing ability jump on it. It probably won’t pay huge but could be a nice addition to a small parlay.
Scott Smith vs Lumumba Sayers- Sayers by KO/TKO/DQ or Round Total: Under
-Depending on what your book offers there are a few options with this fight. Smith’s chin is a huge question mark and Sayers has come out firing in each of his first two Strikeforce bouts, either way this one should end early.
Josh Thomson vs K.J. Noons- Thomson by Decision or Round Total: Over
-Again some bets will offer different options; both fighters are durable and should go the distance so take the over on the rounds or Thomson by decision which should be the case if he can implement his ground game.