Strikeforce: Rousey vs Kaufman – Post Fight Results & Bet Pack
In this writer’s humble opinion, the most dominant Champion currently in MMA isn’t nickednamed the Spider, wasn’t born in Quebec Canada, and won’t be fighting in the main event of UFC 152. Instead she is dominating the Strikeforce Woman’s Bantamweight Division and doing in impressive yet simple fashion. Once again Ronda Rousey showcased her worldclass grappling skills defeating former Champion Sarah Kaufman via armbar inside the first minute. Rousey’s recipe for success once again unraveled in perfect sequence; jab, clinch, takedown into full mount, strike, opponent covers up, hook the arm, ARMBAR, tap and thankfully this time no snap. Strikeforce: Rousey vs Kaufman was a fantastic event both for the MMA action and for the predictions here at Kamikazeoverdrive.net with a record of 8-1-0, a big upset and a very successful bet pack. So lets take a closer look shall we…
-I know this heading doesn’t work in the traditional sense with the other ones but I had to add it beacause there was some really great stuff at this event, making this show a far more entertaining display of Mixed Martial Arts then anything we saw at UFC 150 or UFC 149, sorry its true.
-Miesha Tate vs Julie Kedzie was a FANTASTIC fight and it was only tarnished by the fact that it wasn’t included on the main card. Many felt that Tate’s former champion status should have guaranteed her a spot on the main card, but that wasn’t the case. After watching the prelims I kept verbalizing my want of the production team to reair the fight on the main card especially when the co-main event last less then a minute, but they didn’t. If you are a true fan of MMA you need to go and check it out if you missed it. FOTN! Kedzie show incredible striking and excellent takedown defense early, but Tate managed to eventually get the fight into her realm in round 2, before Kedzie flipped the tables and hurt her badly with a brutal head kick in round 3. I really felt it was all over after Kedzie landed and dropped Tate, but the ensuing ground exchanged resulted in the outcome that his predictor forecasted- Tate by submission. Both girls should be given props, I think Tate should fight at least once more before a title shot, but I don’t know if that will happen while Julie Kedzie versus Sarah Kaufman would be an excellent fight.
-Ronda Rousey’s performance was great, she pushed through her opponent’s striker, Sarah did throw one solid combo, and did exactly what everyone was expecting her to do. The Rousey/Cyborg fight might happen, it might not. There is a small void left right now as to who Rousey could face next if the Cyborg fight doesn’t get done. I would like to see Marloes Coenen return and get a shot, then go with the Tate fight regardless of who the champ is, Kaufman vs Kedzie next as mentioned above. WMMA had a great night!
- Bobby Green had a decent performance, I think it was hindered by Ricehouse’s lack of forward aggression. In a shallow talent pool Green could make a move now and get himself close to a title shot with a high profile win, but Bobby please keep your hands up and your mouth shut a power puncher could really make you pay for that one. Matt Ricehouse rematching against Ryan Couture makes sense, Couture is on a roll and should want to get back his only career defeat, while Bobby Green needs a step up against a slightly more recognizable opponent- Billy Evangelista.
- Not to be forgotten the other Women’s bought on the card was a decent scrap. Germaine De Randamie showed her striking skills and Hiroka Yamanaka showed she does have a chin. A tonne of cash went on Yamanaka based soley on their records going into the fight, but as I pointed out in my breakdown Yamanaka doesn’t have the experiences working with the cage to use it effectivly when attempting to get De Randamie off her feet, which was the case. Germaine has already fought at 135 and will most likely return there, so should Hiroka. De Randamie vs Alexis Davis and Yamanaka vs Amanda Nunes works for me.
- Ovince St. Preux picked up another win, I debated putting this in the ugly category for how ugly-good the knock was and for how ugly OSP’s fight IQ- standing a banging with an opponent which really gave him his only chance to win instead of taking him down where he had clear dominance. OSP will most likely be matched up with either Gian Villante or Mike Kyle next which is too bad, because where do they go from there? I still think my tournament idea works best to help revive the division, but who knows. T.J. Cook fought his heart out for a guy that only trains part time and I hope he will get another shot. OSP vs Trevor Smith to continue to build hm up without ruining the biggest fights left at 205 just yet and T.J. Cook vs Virgil Zwicker- FIREWORKS.
- Why was everyone so down on the Smith/Sayers fight before the event started? If you did your homework you knew hey were two guys that were going to go out there and fight, which they did. Even post fight some critics are still doing the negative dance- Smith defened the early takedown attempt by Sayers and mounted him, a couple of interesting grappling transitions, Anthony slips on the mat, and then executes a perfect triangle for the win against a tough opponent. Smith is a marketable guy; young, big, he has the look of a figther with the capability to win via submission or knockout. For those point at his record, check the facts folks he is 17-8, but he is 12-2 over his last 14 fight compiling 6 of his 8 losses before he turned 22. Hopefully they don’t rush him into a fight with Lorenz Larkin, instead building him up. Sayers did his usual aggressive push that either gets the finish or gets him finished inside the first round. Going forwad Sayers vs Danillo Villefort works for me and I would love to suggest Anthony Smith vs Keith Jardine (despite the Dean coming of a defeat). Jardine is at the end of the line at this level but you might as well milk it for all it is worth and let a guy like Smith potentially pick up a win over a name fighter. From there Smith vs Robbie Lawler might make sense.
-Tarec Saffiedine picked up a win with his technical style, he wasn’t very flashy, but he was effective. He will most likely get the next shot at the Welterweight title against Nate Marquardt. Bowling was aggressive and landed with power, he just didn’t find success in the clinch which cost him the fight most likely. Bowling vs Tyler Stinson would be a decent prelim fight.
-Jacare earned his title shot with a resounding exclamation mark putting the stamp on Derek Brunson with his first career knockout. If Jacare can find a happy medium between his striking and his grappling, not allowing himself too get too far away from his strong..cough Demian Maia…cough cough, he will make for an entertaining title fight with Luke Rockhold.
- Hiroko Yamanaka’s continual defense of her own takedowns. Every Time she was able to tie up Germaine’s leg looking to take her to the ground she continually took herself out of position. She had pretty much no experience working on the cage, we will call it a learning experience.
- The whole Keith Berry/Adlan Amagov fight was a weird one. First the side kick to the knee that was potentially illegal and then the stoppage. I don’t blame Herb for shutting it down. When a fighter is yelling at the ref that is usually sign of trouble, he had just been knocked down from strikes so play the percentages and Herb made a controversial but in most scenarios correct call. I would suggest a rematch considering the outcome of this fight, let it kick off a main card as these two should bring some excitement.
-Derek Brunson’s striking defense was exploited. He is working with Mike Winklejohn so his standup will get better, but he wil need to face some lesser competition to help sort some things out. Antwain Britt would be a suitable opponent.
-the Play by Play team…probably could have left it at that. The low blow in the first woman’s fight was just that a low blow, it clearly hurt Germaine and really nothing more should have been made of it but they had to joke.
-It was made pretty clear that Roger Bowling was not going to be allowed to win the fight, at least by the PBP team. Roger was pushing the action and landing heavy shots early and Tarec wasn’t doing much and yet the team was all over Tarec. I felt that Bowling did enough to earn at least one round, but cleary the judges felt differently.
-Even though Rousey smashed through Kaufman in the end, I felt that Sarah (the first 135 Strikeforce champ) was being treated as an after thought before the fight evern started. On UFC.com they were advertising Rousey vs Tate @ 10pm…that’s not right. There was so much focus on Rousey you would have thought she was going to be shadow boxing or shadowin judoing if there is such a thing. I know Kaufman isn’t the most vocal of fighters but I felt she wasn’t built up like she could have been. Especially at the end of the fight when Mauro Ranallo quickly talked to Sarah, and after she said her piece he could have at least thanked her for her efforts and said he looked forward to seeing her back in action (Joe Rogan style), but instead he couldn’t wait to get back to Double RR and said nothing.
-Not much else to say here because it was such a good event.
What a great night of predictions. I went 8-1 with a huge upset picking Anthony Smith over Lumumba Sayers, a prediction I caught some major flack for. The Bowling/ Saffiedine fight played out like I expected, except for Bowling’s ability to land some takedowns which cost him in the end and cost me my perfect night. The rest of the night played out almost perfectly with a fantastically profitable bet pack for all of those that invested in a discounted $7 pack. Summarizing quickly: 4 winning parlays including a 7 fight parlay, another perfect 5-0 Confidence List, the #1, #3, and #4 Value picks cashed in, 5 of 6 prop bets hitting (the one incorrect one was Kaufman to win KO which was based on value) and almost perfect Fight by Fight betting breakdowns including making money of the Saffiedine fight where I suggested parlaying him with Green and De Randamie. Either way the predictions are on fire right now and you can check out the entire bet pack posted below. There is no UFC next weekend, but Joe Caporale will have predictions for Bellator 73, and make sure you review Caporale and Joel Richer’s Strikeforce picks as both guys had decent nights as well.
Strikeforce: Rousey vs Kaufman Bet Pack
Parlay Doubles=================================================== Parlay #1 =================================================== Selection 1: Bobby Green 1.91 Selection 2: Germaine De Randamie 1.65 =================================================== Price: $3.15 =================================================== Parlay #2 =================================================== Selection 1: Roger Bowling 3.57 Selection 2: Miesha Tate 1.22 =================================================== Price: $4.36
Parlay Triples=================================================== Parlay #3 =================================================== Selection 1: Bobby Green 1.91 Selection 2: Adlan Amagov 1.22 Selection 3: Ovince St. Preux 1.22 =================================================== Price: $2.84
Parlay Double-Doubles=================================================== Parlay #4 =================================================== Selection 1: Anthony Smith 3.40 Selection 2: Miesha Tate 1.22 Selection 3: Germaine De Randamie 1.65 Selection 4: Ronaldo Souza 1.21 =================================================== Price: $8.28 =================================================== Parlay #5 =================================================== Selection 1: Bobby Green 1.91 Selection 2: Miesha Tate 1.22 Selection 3: Ovince St. Preux 1.22 Selection 4: Roger Bowling 3.57 =================================================== Price: $10.15
Big Parlay (I couldn’t come up with a name for this one)=================================================== Parlay #6** =================================================== Selection 1: Miesha Tate 1.22 Selection 2: Ovince St. Preux 1.22 Selection 3: Bobby Green 1.91 Selection 4: Germaine De Randamie 1.65 Selection 5: Adlan Amagov 1.22 Selection 6: Ronaldo Souza 1.21 Selection 7: Ronda Rousey 1.16 =================================================== Price: $8.03 **I don’t normally include a parlay like this one with more then four fighters but I think that it is worth a look for this event with some many big favourites on the card.
Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns
Germaine De Randamie 1.65 vs Hiroko Yamanaka 2.25
I was a little surprised to see De Randamie as the favourite here. She has limited MMA experience and is a striker with limited grappling skills. If I had to guess why Yamanaka is in the position she is in it is probably because of the fact that she only lasted 17 seconds (I think that is right) in her last fight. Even though the fight was turned over Yamanaka got bulldozed by the heavy handed and totally juiced Cyborg Santos. De Randamie has the ability to accomplish something similar, she has brutal power, but she will need to keep this fight standing. Yamanaka has shown herself capable of competing on the ground and although her striking is decent she needs to go to the floor with Germaine ASAP. If Germaine unloads Yamanaka could fold up shop and I like De Randamie at $1.65 considering there are 5 favourites under $1.25 on this card. I would use Germaine on a parlay or two but for a single bet I would be tempted to throw down on Hiroko. Nothing huge, just a small investment in the event she is able to use her long limbs to takedown and control Randamie or submit her.
Bobby Green 1.91 vs Matt Ricehouse 1.83
This is one of those fights that Strikeforce announced only a couple of weeks ago, which sometimes can be hard to predict because you don’t know who is in shape and who isn’t considering the lack of time to prep. Ricehouse is a young figther with limited experience, I have seen a couple of his fights, including the biggest win of his career vs Ryan Couture (watched in 3 times now) and he is developing nicely but still has a ways to go. Green on the other hand is young too, but has a tonne of experience already and is putting together a nice little run in Strikeforce. Should Bobby get the win here, especially in impressive fashion we could see him get push to the next level for his next fight. Ricehouse could have a slight edge on the ground but he will be hard pressed to get the more athletic and faster Green on his back. I like Green’s striking it is a little unorthodox, which should make it harder for Ricehouse to figure out. At $1.91 I really like Green, I have seen him slightly lower but still he is a solid play both by himself and as a part of my larger parlays for the night. While for me Ricehouse is just too…green haha. I would take Bobby Green as my largest single bet investment of the night.
Adlan Amagov 1.22 vs Keith Berry 4.00
Amagov got knocked back down to the prelims with his first round defeat against Robbie Lawler, but if you go back and re-watch that fight he was doing quite well with his grappling until he landed that illegal knee. After the restart he was KOed almost immediately, but I think that he was mentally off his game following the stoppage and had he been able to build on his early momentum without the break I would have been curious to see how that one played out. Either way, unless Berry can catch him here (his nickname is the KO Kid and he has a number of first round knockouts so anything is possible) Amagov has the tools to win this fight anywhere it goes. His kicks should keep Berry’s boxing out of range and if Berry closes in Amagov will fall back on his Sambo much the same way he did against Lawler and take Berry down. Adlan ranks #4 on my confidence list (which is 9-1-0 1NC over the last two shows) so I think he is a decent play as part of a parlay even though he pays out so low. I am usually hesitant about backing a fighter at under $1.25, but I like Amagov and will be hitting him hard, hopefully Berry doesn’t do the same.
Julie Kedzie 4.00 vs Miesha Tate 1.22
Former Champ on the the prelims? Some people are scratching their heads, I wouldn’t mind so much if they showed prelim fights on the main card where there is time, but Strikeforce doesn’t seem interested in doing that. Tate was one half of a much anticipated Woman’s title fight and I can’t see how she wont get a rematch if things fall into place and Rousey still has the title (or not). Kedzie is a veteran of the fight game with a lot of experience compared to many other female fighters, but her main Achilles heals has been her opponents submission/grappling game and Tate should be able to exploit that to the utmost. I expect Tate will shoot almost immediately and look to put a stamp on this fight ASAP in order to send a message to Rousey, Kaufman and everyone else that she is still here. Even if Tate can’t submit Kedzie I expect that true to her nickname she will continually use takedowns to sweep the board for a decision. Kedzie will need to keep this fight standing and outwork Tate, which will prove incredibly difficult. Again similar to the Amagov odds I don’t normally back a bet like this one, but I feel very good about the way Tate’s strongest skills match up with Kedzie’s greatest weakness. The best form of action would be to use Tate as part of a parlay to help boost your return, its not much a huge boost but I believe it is a reliable one.
Ovince St. Preux 1.22 vs T.J. Cook 4.00
OSP got his chance in his last fight to make a move in the LHW rankings, but came up short against Gegard Mousasi. Some saw the fight as OSP being exposed as a mid-tier fighter, but he actually handled himself quite well in the second half of the bout. I’m not sure what Strikeforce has planned for their 205ers, after Mousasi, Feijao, and Kyle, OSP is the next guy on the roster and I expect that they would like to build him into a reputable top contender. Cook has knockout power and will want to brawl with Ovince, hopefully he doesn’t obliged him. T.J. has had issues with getting submitted and I expect that St. Preux will focus his attack on taking Cook down and either looking for the submission or TKO victory. At the very least if Cook can’t stay off his back it will severely limit his ability to win the fight. OSP looked a little fluster in the stand-up with Mousasi, but Cook is no where near that level and I think that St. Preux will be prepared for Cook’s aggression. It seems like the $1.22 mark is a magic number for this event, but again I like OSP here, I think Cook is over-matched and is in this fight for a lack of better options. We are probably headed towards OSP vs either Mike Kyle or Gian Villante down the road so the goal will be to build these guys up with fights like this one. There is probably going to be a big upset on this card, I don’t think it falls here, lets hope instead it is with one or both of the dogs I backed. OSP for a parlay, save you single bets for better paying options. Check out my article Strikeforce: A Blueprint for the Future to see how I would like Scott Coker and the brass to handle the 205 pound division.
Anthony Smith 3.40 vs Lumumba Sayers 1.32
First of all I wanted to voice my opinion; why do people keep bitching about this fight being on the main card. Luke Rockhold is a marketable MW champ, but he will need opponents to face now that he has beaten Kennedy and if he gets by Jacare again. Both of these guys have had pretty good success of late and the winner of this bout will improve his position both in the division and in the minds of the fans as I expect this bout to end violently with the potential (if they had it, which they should) for a Knockout of the Night worthy conclusion. Both guys have heavy hands, and although they have both shown submission capabilities, I expect that the combination of their styles will result in someone taking a nap. This is my first of two major underdog picks for the evening. I did go back and forth on this bout and even though Smith does have a history of getting knocked out and submitted which plays into the hands of Sayers, it is a history in the strongest sense. Smith has really looked good of late, only dropping 1 of his last 9 fights (11-2 over his last 13 after starting 5-6), which was by KO vs Adlan Amagov but I think that fight served as a learning experience. Sayers is 10 years older and has far less MMA experience. He has never been out of the first round and the longest lasting fight that he won ended at the 2:39 mark with the rest wrapping up inside the first 90 seconds. In his two defeats his opponents were able to avoid the early onslaught and push him into the final minute of the opening round before submitting him. I don’t want to read too much into this, but it would appear that based on these numbers if you can survive Sayer’s early push he becomes more vulnerable. All that being said Smith could get himself knocked out inside the first 65 seconds and add to the positive stats backing Lumumba. I like Smith’s use of kicks to keep Sayers at an uncomfortable distance and Anthony will need to be aware of his position in the cage to avoid getting rushed. In the footage I have seen of him lately he appears to have done some growing up with regard to the mental aspects of the fight game which is important. Sayers has looked good in his last two fights, but to put things in perspective after getting tapped by Brunson in his debut he exchanged with Antwain Britt and KOed him in 28 seconds (Britt has lost 2 of his last 3 by knockout) and then he followed it up with a win over Scott Smith via submission where Smith offered almost no resistance. These aren’t exactly wins that one builds a legacy upon. Smith has been facing lower level competition as well, but I think his skill set is more diverse when compared to Sayers and if he can avoid him early that will show up. The majority of Sayer’s fights play out the same way; stand and bang, either score the knockout or submit a hurt opponent, and if not get submitted when his opponent doesn’t crumble. I won’t bet the house on Anthony Smith, but a small single bet is in order here with his value as high as it is and he will also be worked into a parlay or two, but I will diversify to avoid a letdown should he falter.
Roger Bowling 3.57 vs Tarec Saffiedine 1.35
On to upset number 2, many people have Saffiedine winning this and I totally understand where they are coming from. He has an excellent karate based striking style and has decent grappling skills to back it up with the majority of wins coming by submission. Roger Bowling is skilled but as yet to meet the lofty expectations many put on him at the start of his Strikeforce career. Critics would like to point to his two losses against Bobby Voelker as an indication that he is not a legitimate threat in this fight. Having rewatched both of those fights, plus the one he actually won it was clear that Bowling was the better fighter and was winning those bouts until he got caught and finished. Yes Roger has a tendency to throw caution to the wind and just go guns a blazing towards his opponent. This has resulted in a couple of different outcomes; Bowling gets the knockout, Bowling gets knocked out, or Bowling gasses and then gets knocked out. Saffiedine on the other hand is much more technical and picks his sports far better then Bowling. The reason that I am backing Bowling is that Saffiedine is a notoriously slow starter and based on his last fight I am starting to wonder if he isn’t a ‘front runner’ type fighter. When Tyler Stinson put the pressure on and bloodied Tarec, he seemed to back off and at points was running away from Stintson. When it became clear that it was too dangerous for Tarec to remain standing he quickly (which was an intelligent move) elected to switch gears and exploit Stinson’s weakness on the ground. Roger Bowling on the other hand is an incredibly fast starter that will most likely come out and pressure Tarec from the start and not allow him to settle in. Bowling has been stopped twice, but Saffiedine went a full 3 rounds with Scott Smith and landed his best shots, but unlike most of Smith’s recent opponents Tarec was unable to put him away. I’m not doubting Tarec’s skill, but his striking power could be an issue against Bowling especially if Roger hurts him in early stages of the fight and his technical edge disappears as a result. If Tarec does get overwhelmed with the pressure he will most likely shoot for a takedown, but I think that Roger’s wrestling should be good enough to keep him off. I like Bowling at $3.57, he has a lot of value and will at the very least go down fighting. I would use him for a single bet and as a part of a parlay. For Saffiedine I wouldn’t mind putting a bet down on him along with maybe Bobby Green and Germaine De Randamie for a nice 3 way parlay paying out around $4.17.
Ronaldo Souza 1.21 vs Derek Brunson 4.70
Co-main event that now officially has title implications surrounding it. Jacare is already a well established former champion that just needs to win this fight to get his rematch while Brunson is a decent prospect that needs a big name like Jacare to put him on the next level and justify his shot at gold. Brunson is a former NCAA Division II All-American wrestler which can be quickly gauged by his takedown heavy attack. Unfortunately for him in this fight when he goes to his strong suit he is taking down a talented and dangerous BJJ black belt. Jacare doesn’t strike me as the type of guy that would invite being on his back for prolonged periods of time, but any fighter that is willing to engage in a grappling based affair is playing directly into his wheelhouse. Luke Rockhold and Tim Kennedy to a lesser extent (he lost but it was close) showed that the key to finding success against Souza is to be the superior striker and keep the fight vertical. Brunson might be able to use his wrestling in reverse to remain standing but his overall technique is lacking and Souza has been making significant strides with his striking and footwork. Brunson was able to hurt Lumumba Sayers in an exchange and we did see Robbie Lawler clip and stun Jacare, so there is the potential for something like that. But, I just don’t see outside of a flukish sequence of events how Brunson is going to win this one. I guess he could take Jacare down and hold him there for 3 rounds, but I think that Souza is just too dangerous to attempt that with success. Much like most of the favourites, Souza doesn’t have a huge return at $1.21 and although I backed OSP, Tate, and Amagov on a similar line I think that Souza’s opponent is a greater threat then the people that OSP, Tate, and Amagov are paired with. I still think Souza is worth a bet and should win this one, but there is the potential that he could be looking past Brunson to a fight with Rockhold which would be a mistake. I would suggest using him sparingly to avoid a complete collapse if we all get a shock and Brunson gets his hand raised. The risk/ reward on Jacare isn’t great hence I’m a little cautious here, but at the same time I don’t consider a bet on Brunson a worthwhile investment @ $4.70. He is making a huge step up in competition and the star would have to align for him to pull this out, so I would steer clear of him here.
Sarah Kaufman 6.01 vs Ronda Rousey 1.16
Main event prediction time and I have been doing fairly well with my main event picks, 9-2 over the last 11 and 5 in a row correctly predicted. I do have Rousey ranked as my #3 confidence pick; I think she is bigger/ stronger then Kaufman, she is the superior grappler and I think her simple but effective approach will get the job done. That being said, Kaufman is a dangerous striker with a tonne of experience. She is by far the best stand-up fighter that Rousey has faced and lets keep things in perspective: despite all of the hype Double R is still just starting out in her career. Comparing her to another young fighter that has risen to the top of MMA in Jon Jones: Rousey has 5 pro fights to Jones’s 17 and Jones fought 13 times before getting a title shot compared to Ronda’s 4. What I am driving at here is that Bones had done a lot of developing and seen/experienced a lot more when he hit the spotlight compared to Ronda who basically never went beyond the first 60 seconds of a fight until Miesha Tate. Rousey is bound to have a bump or two along the way and even with her Olympic success she has never experienced the level of media attention and glamour that is currently following her which can sometimes hurt a fighter’s focus. Kaufman’s striking is simple and effective; she throws nice straight punches down the middle and if she is able to land a quick combination Ronda could pull a Brock Lesnar and fold up shop. It is a big deal that we have yet to see how Rousey deals with adversity. Tate did put her in a few awkward positions and didn’t go away like other opponents have, but Rousey has never had to deal with getting hit like Sarah is capable of doing. Additionally, Kaufman has successfully fought a number of grappling based opponents and shot down their takedown attempts including Miesha Tate and Liz Carmouche. Rousey is heads and tail above those girls with her Judo skills, but what I am saying is that Sarah does have experience with what her opponent will be trying to do while Ronda really doesn’t. ***When you can get a fighter in the scenario that we have paying as well as Sarah does (anything above $5.oo works for me) she is worth a bet. Until Ronda shows that she can deal with a solid striker like Kaufman, there is significant value behind the challenger and that is why despite predicting against her, Kaufmann is actually sitting as my #5 pick on the value list. I have already placed a couple of bets and I have a single bet on Kaufman and I have two identical parlays with Ronda on one and Sarah as a backup on the other. Essentially my mindset is that if Rousey wins great my prediction is right and I hopefully cash and if Sarah wins I’m wrong but I capitalized on the value and it payed out big time. I would suggest a single bet on Sarah and you can either follow my scheme of taking Ronda to win on a parlay and then on an identical parlay replacing her with Kaufman for a bigger payout or you could just leave Rousey’s small number off all together so if Sarah wins you win both bets and if Ronda wins you at least take home some cash.
Top 5 Confidence Bets (1- Most Confident to Win outright)
1. Miesha Tate
2. Ovince St. Preux
3. Ronda Rousey
4. Adlan Amagov
5. Ronaldo Souza
Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)
1. Bobby Green 1.91
2. Roger Bowling 3.57
3. Anthony Smith 3.40
4. Germaine De Randamie 1.65
5. Sarah Kaufman 6.01*** See the above breakdown for an explanation
The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.
- Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
- I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.
There usually aren’t a tonne of props available for Strikeforce cards but here is what I am thinking anyway.
Keith Berry/Adlan Amagov Total Rounds Under 2.5- Both guys have the numbers to justify this bet. Berry is the type of guy that either finishes his opponent or gets finished trying and Amagov has the style/ power to oblidge him. The only flaw that could prevent this prop from cashing is if Amagov uses a similar style approach to the opening of the Lawler fight where he shot almost immediately. He could look to take Berry down and control him for 15 minutes, but I doubt it, instead I expect fireworks and a quick finish take the under, even if it is 1.5.
Miesha Tate to win by Submission- In a card where you are struggling to find any real value with the favourites you might have to take a few risks and pick the method of victory to add some coin. Again this prop bet might not be available but its worth mentioning. Tate is a solid grappler and Kenzie has lost the majority of her defeats by tapout. I expect Tate will try to win in impressive fashion to send a message to her best friend fighting in the main event so a nice rear-naked choke, arm triangle or potential arm bar victory would do the trick here.
Lumumba Sayers/ Anthony Smith Total Rounds Under 2.5 (or 1.5)- Sayers has never been out of the first round and Smith has the power to finish the fight quickly as well. Both guys know the depth of the division (or lack there of) and the potential for a big push with an impressive win here so put the kids to bed this is a recipe for violence and both will come out looking to put the cherry on top.
Ronda Rousey/ Sarah Kaufman Total Rounds Under 1.5, 2.5, 3.5- I don’t know where this line will sit with the total but I like the under. Either Rousey continues her arm snapping ways or Kaufman catches her and stops her with strikes. If Kaufman is planning on dragging her into the latter stages of the fight this prop is out the window but don’t count on it and Kaufman will need o make good on her limited striking opportunities and blast away ASAP.
Ronda Rousey to win by Submission $1.29- I am not going to explain this one, but feel free to use RR by Sub to increase her value in place of RR to win straight up. I have seen this one on some sites- 5Dimes and SportBet.
Sarah Kaufman to win by KO/TKO/DQ $8.20- Why not, Sarah isn’t going to submit Ronda and the chances of this bout going the full 5 are limited so lets take Kaufman from the $5-$6 range and get her up over $8 by taking her via the only real method she can win this fight by. She could either hurt her early and stop her or pick her apart and look for the late TKO when Rousey grows tried after being dragged into unfamiliar rounds. I talked about taking Kaufman to win straight up and the scenarios I would use her in, if this prop bet is available I would say go with it in place of it.