UFC Fight Night 112: Chiesa vs Lee Preliminary Predictions



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155lbs- Clay Guida (32-14-0) vs Erik Koch (15-4-0)

In the headlining bout of the prelims, long-time UFC veteran Clay “The Carpenter” Guida returns to the Lightweight division to take on “New Breed” Erik Koch. Koch is coming off of a win over Shane Campbell to improve his record to 2-1 since moving to the Lightweight division. Guida suffered a late KO loss to Brian Ortega at UFC 199- he is 1-3 in his last 4 fights.

Guida is returning to the Lightweight division for the first time since a 2012 bout with Gray Maynard. He hasn’t fought in just over a year. Koch is 3 inches taller, will have a 1″ reach advantage, and is 7-years younger. He was last seen competing 13-months ago.

Guida’s reputation for a relentless pace and unending cardio are well-established. His durability is what has recently been brought into question. All 4 of his defeats at Featherweight came via stoppage; 2 by sub and 2 by knockout. While he has been submitted 9-times overall, the cut could have been playing a role in the only knockout defeats of his career. Koch is a well-rounded fighter; demonstrating decent power and technique on the feet and a workable grappling game. He was landing smooth and heavy combinations on Campbell prior to snagging the submission win. “New Breed” isn’t an overwhelming striker and has had issues letting his output drop off. He has also suffered a couple of recent knockouts which raises questions about his chin.

Guida was probably winning the Ortega fight prior to getting knocked out. His recent move to Alpha Male appeared to have some positive returns. Nonetheless, Koch is the superior striker and is still improving. He tends to fire his punches down the middle which will allow him to routinely beat the wider strikes of Clay to the mark. Clay needs to use his forward pressure to keep Erik backing up and land key takedowns to limit the striking exchanges. There is a path to victory for the “Carpenter”, but mypredictionn is Erik Koch to defeat Clay Guida by TKOParagraph breaker

185lbs- Vitor Miranda (13-5-0) vs Marvin Vettori (11-3-0)

In the Middleweight division, TUF Brazil Heavyweight finalist Vitor “Lex Luthor” Miranda takes on Italy’s Marvin Vettori. Miranda is coming off a loss to Chris Camozzi that ended a 3-fight winning streak. Vettori dropped a decision to Antonio Carlos Junior after making a successful debut at UFC 202, he has won 6 of his last 7.

The Brazilian is an inch taller, but he will have a 3″ reach advantage against the Southpaw Vettori. Marvin is the younger man by 14-years.

Training out of King’s MMA, Vettori made a good account of himself against Carlos Junior despite the loss. He has submitted 8 opponent, including a pair of BJJ Black belts in his last 2 wins. Miranda has given up at least 1 takedown in each of his fights but has demonstrated decent TDD and the ability to get back up after being put on the mat. Miranda’s edge lies on the feet. He works behind a good jab and offers a variety of dangerous kicks. Of his 3 UFC victories, 2 have come on the heels of a head kick. Miranda, while a capable finisher, is a concerning 2-4 in his last 6 fights to go beyond the first round- 1-4 in decisions. Vettori has a large percentage of opening-round wins on his record, but he carries a solid pace and really pushes his opponent from start to finish.

Miranda is closing on 40 and coming off of a sizeable layoff. He struggled with the constant pressure of Camozzi, spending time on his back and failing to capitalize when they did exchange. Vettori is young, but his physicality on the mat combined with his submission skills can be a lot to deal with. Look for the Italian to push Miranda early and eventually catch him in a scramble- my prediction is Marvin Vettori to defeat Vitor Miranda by submission.
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115lbs- #8 Carla Esparza (12-4-0) vs #10 Maryna Moroz (8-1-0)

Former Strawweight champion Carla “Cookie Monster” Esparaza looks to halt her descent from the top 10 when she takes on fellow ranked opponent Maryna “Iron Woman” Moroz. Moroz has won back to back bouts, most recently snagging a split decision win over Danielle Taylor. Esparza is coming off an upset split decision defeat at the hands of Randa Markos to drop her post-title fight loss record to 1-1.

Moroz is 6 inches taller than the 5’1″ Esparza and will have a 4″ reach advantage. Moroz is also the younger fighter by 4-years.

The former champion has a pretty straightforward recipe for winning fights; score takedowns and maintain top position. This usually leads to either a decision win or a stoppage victory if Carla can overwhelm her foe. Esparza averages 4.44 takedowns per fight, but had trouble maintaining top control against Markos once they hit the mat. Moroz does have 5 submission wins, all by armbar, including catching Joanne Calderwood in her debut. She will need to be active off her back if taken down. She isn’t a massive takedown threat herself and has been put on her back by each of her last 3 foes. Maryna has shown she can strike but lacks a consistent output. She landed just 17-significant strikes against the diminutive Taylor despite a huge reach advantage.

If Moroz can keep Carla on the outside with her jab and be aggressive on the mat she could edge out a decision. Catching an armbar might not be impossible either. That being said, the timidity that she showed against Taylor will show up again in the face of a constant takedown threat. Esparza will score takedowns at will and Moroz doesn’t do enough on the feet to recover from spending too much time on her back- my prediction is Carla Esparza to defeat Maryna Moroz by decision.

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155lbs- Devin Powell (8-2-0) vs Darrell Horcher (12-2-0)

In the Lightweight division, a pair of UFC sophomores will get a shot at their first Octagon victory as Devin Powell takes on Darrell “The Saint” Horcher. Powell lost a decision in his debut to Drakkar Klose, ending a 6-fight winning streak that had followed his first career defeat. Horcher took a long shot debut on short notice against Khabib Nurmagomedov- he fell victim to his adversary’s ground prowess in the middle frame.

Powell is 2 inches taller and will have a 3″ reach advantage. He is the younger man by a year. Horcher is closing in on 14-months out of action.

Statistically, Horcher was buried under an avalanche of offense by Nurmagomedov. Join the club. At his best, Horcher is an aggressive power puncher forgoing defense for offense. He likes to put his punches together and can be a bit of a reactionary striker, tossing out flurries in response to getting hit. Powell hung around in his last fight, but was soundly outworked from start to finish. He is a serviceable striker with some decent pop, but he gets hits way too often. While Powell could consider wrestling Horcher, he has yet to display the required takedown skills to indicate he can find success with regularity.

Horcher’s debut scenario was anything but desirable. He is returning off a sizeable layoff, but he will have a full camp to prep. Horcher is the more powerful puncher and will connect at a higher frequency. Don’t be surprised if “The Saint” attempts to mix in a takedown or 2- my prediction is Darrell Horcher to defeat Devin Powell by decision.

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145lbs- Jared Gordon (12-1-0) vs Michel Quinones (8-1-0)

*Prediction copied from UFC 211.

In the Featherweight division, a pair of debuting fighters square off as Jared “Flash” Gordon takes on Michel “El Capo” Quinones. Gordon has won 3 in a row after suffering the first setback of his career to TUF alumni Jeff Lentz. Quinones is coming off a Titan FC victory to extend his winning streak to 5, his only career loss came back in 2012 to Brandon Girtz in Bellator.

Gordon formerly competed at Lightweight but will give up an inch of height and 5 inches of reach. “Flash” is the younger man 4 years.

Entering the cage as another product of Dana’s “Look’in For a Fight” reality show, Gordon has secured 5-wins by knockout including his head kick stoppage at CFFC 59 to capture that organizations’ 145-pound title. The Queens, New York native has some pop in his hands and will use his striking to set up his takedowns. In pre-UFC action, Quinones’s TDD has looked decent, but he has a tendency to leap into his striking techniques. This will increase the impact of his offense, but also open him up to Gordon’s wrestling. “El Capo” has finished 5 opponents by knockout and is coming off his first fight to last beyond the opening round since 2012.

Quinones is a little older than the typical “prospect” and his lack of recent long fight experience could be a massive issue against a capable takedown artist. Gordon’s wrestling should allow him to dictate where the fight takes place and his top game will provide the bulk of his offense- my prediction is Jared Gordon to defeat Michel Quinones by decision.

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155lbs- Tony Martin (11-3-0) vs Johnny Case (22-5-0)

A pair of talented 27-years olds collide in the Lightweight division when Tony Martin meets Johnny “Hollywood” Case. Martin has won back to back fights after an unsuccessful 1-3 start to his UFC run. Case began with a 4-pack of victories prior to dropping an entertaining submission loss to Jake Matthews.

Martin is 2 inches taller and will have a slight 1″ reach advantage. Case has a 2-1 edge in overall experience.

The majority of Martin’s success comes on the mat. With 8 of 11 wins by submission- 2 in the UFC. Despite his heavy dependency on the floor, Tony has averaged well under 2 completions per fight. Against White, he did an excellent job of securing takedowns and then body control to maintain position. Case has shown himself to be a capable wrestler, picking up multiple takedowns in a couple of different fights. He also spent some time on his back in a win over Yan Cabral. Case should have the striking edge, but Martin has made noticeable improvements in recent bouts.

Thie biggest knock on Martin has been his gas tank. He has been ahead in fights early, faded and lost. Case is the more well-rounded fighter overall but has been known to give up key takedowns. That being said, he forces his opponents to work for those completions and that is going to be the key here. Look for Martin to come out shooting for takedowns early and even land a couple, but once he starts to slow down “Hollywood” will take over- my prediction is Johnny Case to defeat Tony Martin by decision.

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205lbs- Joshua Stansbury (8-4-0) vs Jeremy Kimball (14-6-0)

To jump start the event, Josh “The Sandman” Stansbury takes on Jeremy “Grizzly” Kimball in the UFC’s Light Heavyweight division. Stansbury is coming off a decision loss to Devin Clark to drop his UFC record to 1-1 after a successful debut last summer. Kimball got his start as a short notice replacement, falling to Marcos Rogerio de Lima via opening round TKO.

Stansbury is 6’2″, standing 2 inches taller than Kimball to go along with a 2″ reach advantage. “Grizzly” is the younger man by 7-years. Kimball has missed weight in the past, including in his short notice debut.

Kimball comes into the fight having recorded 10-wins by knockout and stopping 11 overall- 7 in the opening round. In all honesty, he is a blown up Middleweight who struggles at times to get down to 205. He moves well and has a decent kicking attack. Unfortunately, he appears to have a defensive liability when taken down. The mat is an area that Stansbury has thrived, submitting 5 opponents. Against Clark, he went 0 for 2 on his TDAs. While he has shown improvements with his striking, he struggled to let his hands go against Clark.

Kimball needs to find a way to make this fight gritty, use his speed and outwork Stansbury. Josh was underwhelming in his last fight, but he should find success with his mat game here. Look for Stansbury to pin Kimball on the cage, chip away, and eventually get the fight to the mat. “Grizzly” tends to get overwhelmed when put under pressure- my prediction is Josh Stansbury to defeat Jeremy Kimball by submission.

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>>>Prelim Prediction Archives<<<

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23 Responses to “UFC Fight Night 112: Chiesa vs Lee Preliminary Predictions”

  1. Sam Shehadeh says:

    FIGHT PREDICTIONS: GSP FINISHES HENDRICKS IN THE 4TH OR 5TH,RASHAD BY DECISION,MCDONALD DECISION,WOODLEY BY TKO,ELLIOT BY DECISION,CERRONE BY TKO,LEITES BY SUBMISSION,STORY BY DECISION,PEREZ BY DECISION,HIGH BY TKO,PETTIS BY SUMBISSION,DONOVAN BY KO

  2. Ricky Ross says:

    “Sampo is coming off a loss against former Bellator Bantamweight champion and potential future title challenger Josh Sampo.”

    WTF???

  3. UFC Gramma says:

    Great job on the visual aspects of the show. Appreciate the research effort that goes into your predictions…will continue to follow you!

  4. adam says:

    i loved your new setup i hope u can keep it that way. much much better than beforeee!

  5. brent says:

    Really enjoy the fight break downs, ty. Your analysis is definitelya cut above many of the other prediction sites. Graphics are great but you should be on camera too. Give yourself the exposure. Your the commentator, analyst, show yourself bro, it works.

  6. Steo92 says:

    Nice prediction set up, like this site alot 10/10

  7. Brent says:

    I always look forward to your predictions. Your site is an important part of my wagering research for all the UFC events. MMA is best sport in the world, your thoughts and analysis add to the enjoyment!

  8. Morgan Iowa says:

    Nice breakdowns

  9. Tom says:

    Kamikaze overdrive is where its at MMA fans!!!!!!!!!!

  10. mike says:

    skelly over omer?

  11. jonny last says:

    Kuntz is 8 years older…just saying ,coudn`t find Makhachev`s reach anywhere

  12. mike ripple says:

    Duke needs a win and is much better on her feet than she has previously shown. Whoever walks away with the big L will get cut

  13. Jack Hinson says:

    Hey friend, just an FYI … the wrong write up is posted for the #11 DARREN ELKINS (20-5-0) vs CHAS SKELLY (15-1-0) fight.

    • scottiej86 says:

      Thanks, I probably would not have notice that until it was too late. I Had to completely redo my Elkins/Skelly prediction as I copied over it accidentally.

  14. Toby Jesko says:

    This one’s a stumper. “K-Taro” is much more experienced and probably the better grappler overall, but “The Leech” is incrediblly strong and has had time to prepare. Plus, Nakamura’s lost a few fights he should have won with ease.

  15. Super Sean says:

    I disagree with these preliminary selections. I have Akhmendov by Decision, Mutante Submission RD 1, Randy Brown TKO RD 3 Court McGee Decision, Cub Swanson by TKO RD 1, Chiesa By Decision, Bethe C by Decision

  16. Super Sean says:

    KHABILOV vs WADE – KHABILOV UD
    MAGNUS VS MCLELLAN – CEDENBLAD KO
    YAN CABRAL vs REZA MADADI – REZA SUB
    KYOJI HORIGUCHI vs NEIL SEERY – HORIGUCHI UD
    LEON EDWARDS vs DOMINIC WATERS – EDWARDS KO
    ULKA SASAKI vs WILLIE GATES – SASAKI UD

  17. Jack Hinson says:

    Hey friend, the write up for #6 Demian Maia (22-6-0) vs #8 Matt Brown (22-13-0)did not fully post … it was cut off.

  18. Jack Hinson says:

    Leandro Silva to defeat Taylor Lapilus by decision???

  19. Robbie says:

    Did the UFC drop the Brett Jones Fight?

  20. Robbie says:

    Awesome im glad theres more action saturday, also you do a fantastic job breaking down these contests man i appreciate it

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