UFN 107: Manuwa vs Anderson Preliminary Predictions
155lbs- Joe Duffy (15-2-0) vs Reza Madadi (14-4-0)
Headlining the Undercard, “Irish” Joe Duffy makes his 5th UFC walk when he meets the hardnosed Reza “Mad Dog” Madadi. Madadi scored a TKO win over Yan Cabral in his last fight and has alternated wins and losses dating back to his UFC debut. Duffy rallied from his loss to Dustin Poirier to quickly submit Canadian Mitch Clarke, improving his Octagon mark to 3-1.
Madadi is an inch taller, but will give up an inch of reach. Duffy is the younger man by 10 years.
Coming from a wrestling background, Madadi is a grinder. He had a lot of early success with his wrestling, landing a combined 10 takedowns over his first 3 UFC fights. Since that strong start, he has picked up just a pair of completions on 14 attempts. A BJJ Purple belt, Madadi has 8 wins by submission. If “Mad Dog” is unable to get the fight to the mat, he will work over his opponent along the cage, maintaining tight body control accompanied by short strikes. The distance striking technique that Reza employs isn’t overly flashy. A well-placed uppercut led to the Cabral stoppage, but he is most effective when he can drag his opponent into a wild brawl and rely on his durability.
After upsetting Michael Johnson in early 2013, Madadi was released by the UFC and inactive for over 2 years due to burglary conviction in Sweden.
“Irish” Joe made short work of his last opponent, taking just 25-seconds to pick up his 9th career submission win. Duffy blends together a slick grappling attack and savvy boxing game. Showcasing his well-rounded skills, he floored Clarke with a right hook before locking in an RNC for the tap. He is a Taekwondo Black belt and BJJ Purple belt. On the feet, Joe leads with a sharp left jab and follows with a very accurate and hard straight right. Look for him to work in a decent kicking repertoire as well. In victory, he has yet to see the second round in the UFC and has finished 14 opponents in the first frame.
Joe is just 2-2 outside of the opening round, including his loss to Dustin Poirier where he was badly out-wrestled.
Duffy is a talented fighter, but his defensive wrestling was badly exposed against Poirier. Additionally, his quality of opposition hasn’t been great in the UFC with his wins coming over 3 fighters with a combined record of 4-9. Madadi isn’t pretty, but he is durable and is a strong wrestler. Look for Reza to return to his wrestling roots, ground Duffy to take away his striking advantage, and grind Joe down on the floor and cage- my prediction is Reza Madadi to defeat Joe Duffy by decision.
205lbs- Darren Stewart (7-0-0 1NC) vs Francimar Barroso (18-5-0 1NC)
In a rematch dating back to last November, Darren “The Dentist” Stewart battles Francimar Barroso in the Light Heavyweight division. At UFN 100, Stewart was initially named the victor over Barroso by TKO, but the result was overturned by the Brazilian commission. Barroso is 3-2 in the UFC including wins over Ryan Jimmo and Elvis Mutapcic. Stewart was a perfect 2-0 in 2016 before making his promotional debut.
The Brazilian will have an inch reach advantage and is 3 inches taller. Stewart is the younger man by 10-years and appeared to be a little undersized against Barroso, admitting that he intends to move to Middleweight after the rematch.
In their first encounter, Stewart used a clinch heavy attack to keep Francimar on the cage. During a transition, Stewart’s head appeared to partially connect with Barosso’s jaw/cheek. The blow didn’t appear to be significant, but the Brazilian’s focus was entirely on the injury and he was quickly finished via strikes on the mat.
Barosso’s been a bit of an odd fighter. His cardio isn’t great, but he tends to be a bit of a grinder. Averaging less that 3 significant strikes per minute and under 2 completed takedowns per fight- he isn’t going to overwhelm his opponent with his offensive output. He struggled with the pressure of Nikita Krylov before eventually getting finished. The Nova Uniao product is a decent kicker and has some pop in his hands, but most of what he offers comes in the form of single strikes. He is at his best when he can maintain a pace that he is comfortable with and doesn’t allow his opponent to control the action.
A Black belt in both BJJ and Kickboxing, Barosso has recorded 8 wins by knockout and 4 by submission, but no stoppages in the UFC.
“The Dentist” has gone on record saying that this fight is personal. Stewart is clearly upset with the result change and he also felt Francimar took the easy way out and could have defended himself. The Brit has record 5 wins by knockout, all in the opening round. Stewart will look for takedowns and once on the mat, he will unload a flurry of GNP. His clinch game is also effective, using knees to the body and head to bust up his foe. Stewart likes to carry a furious pace, but he was clearly tired after the first round of his final Cage Warrior’s fight. However, his early pressure at exhausted his opponent who eventually caved to his attack.
Stewart landed 21 strikes compared to Barosso’s 8 and picked up a single takedown on 2 attempts in just 94-seconds of action.
Stewart is the smaller man with significantly less experience. Conversely, he doesn’t cut nearly as much weight as Barosso, who is fighting outside of Brazil for just the 3rd time since 2012. Stewart is capable of employing a similar high paced clinch-based attack, that Krylov beat Barosso with. Barosso’s cardio is pretty poor and if Stewart wears him down early he will eventually find takedowns and unload with his GNP. Stewart’s speed and aggression put Barosso on the defensive until he can’t defend anymore- my prediction is Darren Stewart to defeat Francimar Barroso by TKO.
265lbs- #12 Daniel Omielanczuk (19-6-1 1NC) vs #14 Timothy Johnson (10-3-0)
A pair of Top 15 ranked Heavyweights collide as Poland’s Daniel Omielanczuk takes on Minnesota-born Timothy Johnson. Omielanczuk is coming off of a submission loss to Stefan Struve, the first time he has been finished in his career- he had won 4 fights in a row prior to the defeat. Johnson dropped a contestable split decision to Alexander Volkov last time out which evened his UFC record at 2-2.
At 6’3″, Johnson will have a 3″ height and reach advantage over Omielanczuk. Tim usually touches the Heavyweight limit and should come in 15-20 pounds heavier than his opponent. He is also the younger man by 3-years.
A former NCAA Division 2 wrestler, Johnson looks to break his opponent down with constant pressure both in the clinch and on the mat. Tim landed his UFC-best 3 completions in his narrow loss to Jared Rosholt and he has completed a takedown in all but 1 of his UFC outings. Johnson isn’t going to overwhelm his opponent with his completion numbers, but he will make the most out of his opportunities once he hits the mat. When on the feet, Tim utilizes the clinch to control his foe and land strikes. At distance, Johnson is deceptively quick and can connect with decent power.
This is Johnson’s 3rd consecutive fight in Europe. He fought Volkov in Northern Ireland and defeated Marcin Tybura in Zagreb, Croatia.
One of Omielanczuk’s most noteworthy’s assets is his durability. Unfortunately, the Polish fighter’s stats aren’t strong. He carries an almost even striking exchange rate, averages less than a takedown per fight, and has given up at least 1 completion in 4 of his last 6 contests. His losses to Anthony Hamilton and Jared Rosholt were largely based on his inability to get vertical. When he is standing, Rosholt has some decent pop in his hands and offers a serviceable kicking game. At close range, against less capable grapplers, look for Omielanczuk to have success in the clinch and on the mat.
Omielanczuk is 7-5 in decisions, including a 2-2 record in the UFC. Additionally, he is 3-0 in fights that last more than a round, but are finished before the judges get involved.
The struggles of Omielanczuk on the mat are well documented. In the 4-fights where his opponent pursued the takedown, he gave up a combined 12 completions and won just one of those fights when his opponent gassed. Johnson will use his size and wrestling background to neutralize Daniel on the cage and the mat, breaking him down with pressure and strikes- my prediction is Timothy Johnson to defeat Daniel Omielanczuk by decision.
155lbs- Marc Diakiese (11-0-0) vs Teemu Packalen (8-1-0)
In the Lightweight division, England and Finland go head to head as Marc “Bonecrusher” Diakiese takes on Teemu Packalen. Diakiese has maintained his perfect record through his first 2 UFC contests, most recently picking up a decision win over Frankie Perez. Packalen is 1-1 inside the Octagon after taking down Thibault Gouti in just 24-seconds.
At 6’1″, Teemu is 3 inches taller than his opponent but will give up an inch of reach. Diakiese is the younger man by 6-years and Packalen is closing in on a 13-month layoff.
Packalen has put away his adversary in all 8 of his wins, 6 by submission, and 6 in the opening round. In his last fight, he landed an early uppercut that sent his opponent to the floor before locking up an RNC to seal the deal. Of his 2 career wins to last beyond the opening frame, the longest hit the 2:37 mark of round 2. In his debut, he started strong, taking his opponent down and attacking on the mat. Unfortunately, he faded and lost a decision. He took the fight on short notice. Packalen has a decent takedown game, but he will also pull guard and attack off his back. Not surprisingly, his aggressive style will lead him to giving up position for submission. Regardless, he is a capable and opportunistic ground fighter.
When Teemu starts to tire, he will fall to his back and attempt to entice his opponent to engage him. This can put him at a positional deficit if they can maintain top position.
An impressive physical specimen, Diakiese is a dynamic striker and has finished 5 opponents by knockout- 4 in the opening round. He is also a perfect 5-0 on the scorecards, including his last win. The Brit throws hard combinations, mixes in stiff leg kicks, and can counter strike. “Bonecrusher” showcased his offensive wrestling against Perez, but it is his defensive game that is a bit of a concern. Perez took him down midway through round 2 and kept him on his back until the bell. In the early moments of his bout with Lukas Sajewski, Marc gave up a pair of takedowns and lost the round on the floor. He was able to survive the early deficit and once his opponent began to slow down, Diakiese put him away.
Looking to get on the fast track Diakiese is fighting for the 3rd time in the last 6-months.
Compared to Packalen, the Brit is the far more dangerous striker and vastly superior athlete. That being said, he tends to force some of his grappling techniques and his TDD has also been suspect when tested. Teemu is dangerous on the mat and the threat of the TD will keep Diakiese from opening up on the feet. Packalen will shoot early and capitalize on the aggression of Diakiese, forcing him into some bad spots on the floor, my prediction is Teemu Packalen to defeat Marc Diakiese by decision.
185lbs- Tom Breese (10-1-0) vs Oluwale Bamgbose (6-2-0)
Looking to follow in the footsteps of fellow countryman Michael Bisping, Tom Breese heads to the Middleweight division to take on “The Holy War Angel” Oluwale Bamgbose. After suffering a knockout loss in his debut against Uriah Hall, Bamgbose finished Daniel Sarafian via knockout in just 60-seconds before dropping a one-sided decision to Cezar Ferreira. Breese is coming off the first loss of his pro career, losing a narrow split decision to Sean Strickland at UFC 199- he is 3-1 in the UFC.
Breese has elected to stop making the draining cut to Welterweight and will use his bout to launch his run at 185-pounds. A physical anomaly, Breese will be 4 inches taller than his opponent, but Bamgbose will have a sizeable 5″ reach advantage. The Brit is the younger man by 4-years.
Prior to his last bout, Oluwale had never fought beyond the opening round. Finishing all 6 of his pro wins by knockout, with the longest fight falling just short of the 3:30 mark. He took out Sarafian with a brutal head kick and follow-up ground and pound. Bamgbose can generate a lot of power in his kicks and even when they are blocked they can still do damage. Light on his feet, “The Holy War Angel” will utilize a variety of fakes and feints to set up his strikes. While he struggled to generate much offense against Ferreira, he will launch himself into his techniques to increase their power.
Bamgbose’s ground game has been a major concern. He was quickly finished on the floor by Hall and offered almost no resistance off his back in his last contest.
Not to be outdone, Breese has stopped his opponent in 9 of his 10 wins. He has finished 6 in the opening round, with 4 of his 6 submission wins coming via RNC. Despite his pre-UFC success on the floor, he has yet to complete a takedown inside the Octagon. With fast hands, Breese leads with a stiff right jab and follows with a hard straight left. The Brit augments his boxing with a decent kicking attack. Against Cathal Pendred, he landed a counter left to stun him before dropping Cathal with a hard body kick. Breese does a good job of maintaining pressure and if his opponent elects to close the distance, Tom offers some vicious knees in the clinch.
Breese’s loss to Strickland hinged largely on his inability to maintain a striking advantage in the second half of the fight. After a +6 in significant strikes in round 1, he was a combined -17 over the final 2 frames.
Oluwale is unorthodox and has power which makes him dangerous. He may only need 1 strike to end this fight. Breese offers a more diverse and consistent striking repertoire and he could revisit his grappling game to exploit his opponent’s clear vulnerability. Bamgbose’s style isn’t meant to hold up over a longer fight and Breese has never been finished- my prediction is Tom Breese to defeat Oluwale Bamgbose by TKO.
170lbs- Leon Edwards (12-3-0) vs Vicente Luque (11-5-1)
Two of the Welterweight division’s prospects on the rise square off as Leon “Rocky” Edwards meets Vicente “Silent Assassin” Luque. Edwards is coming off of an upset submission win over Albert Tumenov and is 4-2 with the promotion. Luque hasn’t tasted defeat since his unsuccessful Octagon debut, he is coming off of a 79-second KO of Belal Muhammad and has stopped his opponent in all 4 of his UFC wins.
Edwards is an inch taller, but will give up an inch of reach. Both men are 25-years old.
The Brit is coming off just the 3rd submission win of his career. Edwards scored a couple of early takedowns, including a well-executed bodylock/ trip combo. Once on the mat, Leon controlled the majority of the action from top position. The finish came after “Rocky” took his back during a scramble. Conversely, Edwards struggled with the wrestling attack of Kamaru Usman, giving up 6 takedowns. Known more for his striking, Leon has some decent pop in his hands, but doesn’t work at an overwhelming pace. Against Tumenov, He was tossing out a jab, but spent the majority of the vertical exchanges on the defensive with his back to the cage.
With the exception of the opening round knockout of Seth Baczynski, Edwards has fought into the 3rd round in 7 of his last 8 contests.
A Blackzilian stable member, Luque has been on an impressive role with only 1 of his last 4 opponents making it out of the opening round. The majority of his submission wins have come via some form of choke. In his last submission victory, he piled up the takedowns and top position strikes to soften up his opponent before locking in the 2nd round choke. The “Silent Assassin” took out Hector Urbina with a slick combo ending with a devastating right hand. He finished Muhammad with a stiff left. A strong kicking arsenal rounds out the striking attack of the Brazilian.
Luque is 1-5-1 in fights that last to the 3rd round, but 10-0 when the action reaches its conclusion before the end of the 2nd round.
Edward’s submission of Tumenov was impressive, but he was struggling during the striking exchanges. Against Luque, he won’t be able to fall back on his grappling if he is having issues on the feet. Edwards’s technical skills will keep him in the fight, but Luque hits too hard and is too dangerous on the mat for Leon to stay out of danger. Luque will take the Brit down, bust him up with some GNP, and eventually start looking for a choke- my prediction is Vicente Luque to defeat Leon Edwards by submission.
135lbs- Ian Entwistle (9-3-0) vs Brett Johns (13-0-0)
In the Bantamweight division, Ian Entwistle puts his UFC career on the line against Welsh-born Brett “The Pikey” Johns. Entwistle is 1-2 inside the Octagon, submitting Anthony Birchak between TKO losses to Dan Hooker and Alejandro Perez. Johns has yet to suffer a loss as a pro, including a successful debut victory over Kwan Ho Kwak.
Johns is only 2 inches taller than Entwistle, but will have a massive 7″ reach advantage. Johns is the younger man by 6-years.
Outside of an early career win by DQ, all of Entwistle’s pro victories have come by submission. He is known as a leg lock specialist, with 3 of his last 4 wins coming by heel hook. All of his fights, including both of his losses, have ended inside the first frame. Ian will recklessly dive for his opponent’s lower half, looking to lace up a leg and go to work. If he can’t get the tap, he puts himself in danger of absorbing a lot of damage. Not surprisingly, he will pull guard and look to sweep his opponent or elevate them enough to attack a leg. Entwisle hasn’t shown any real focus on striking, constantly pursuing the ground attack.
After a failed sub attempt early against Perez, the Brit claimed that Perez’s legs were greased. The referee found nothing to validate his claim.
In stark contrast to his opponent, Johns has gone the distance 7 times, winning all of them. Over his final 4 fights outside of the Octagon, 3 bouts went a full 5-rounds. “The Pikey” landed an impressive 11 of his 15 takedown attempts in his debut. Once on top, he will maintain tight body control and land short strikes. Johns is a Judo Black belt and BJJ Purple belt. On the feet, he offers decent striking attack. In the middle round, Johns hurt Kwak with a hard uppercut, landed good short punches, and mixed in a flying knee.
Despite his experience in longer fights, Johns appeared to be slowing down after the opening round of his debut and needed his wrestling to seal the final frame. The adrenaline drop associated with a first UFC fight could have played a role.
Not surprisingly, this fight will come down to the early sub attempts of Entwistle. If he can lock something up he could seal the deal. If he can’t, Johns is going to smash him from top position. Johns is a capable grappler and pretty sound defensively. Entwistle will throw a lot at him, but Johns will stay defensive, create separation, and wait until he is in full control before he starts to unload- my prediction is Brett Johns to defeat Ian Entwistle by TKO.
185lbs- Bradley Scott (11-4-0) vs Scott Askham (14-3-0)
In the Middleweight division, Bradley “Bear” Scott looks to return to the win column when he takes on fellow countryman Scott Askham. Scott has alternated wins and losses over his last 6 fights, most recently losing to Krzysztof Jotko. Askham has put together a similar run over his last 6-fights and is coming off an upset loss to Jack Hermansson.
Askham is 2 inches taller than Scott, but it will be Scott with a slight 1″ reach advantage. Scott, a former Welterweight, is a year younger and is returning to action after just over a year on the shelf.
It has been a stark contrast of outcomes for Askham since coming to the UFC. Both of his UFC wins were first round KOs, pushing his career total to 9 wins by knockout. All 3 of his UFC defeats have been on the scorecards, dropping his record in decisions to 3-3. Scott is a striker by trade, offering a strong kicking arsenal. In his loss to Magnus Cedenblad, Askham dropped him with a front kick to the face. Statistically, the Brit has struggled to match his opponents’ output. Hermansson badly out landed him by a count of 88-37, pulling away in rounds 2 and 3 when Askham faded.
Over Askham’s 3 UFC defeats, he has given up a trio of takedowns and spent a lot of time fighting with his back on the cage.
Despite taking a loss on the cards, Scott had a respectable showing against Jotko. He has split his 10 wins evenly between knockout and submissions while struggling to an 0-3 mark on the scorecards. Bradley has been finished just once. Utilizing a lot of pressure against Jotko, Scott was moving forward heavy on his front leg looking to land his right hand. The constant aggression of Scott makes him easier to hit and he was dropped twice prior to submitting Dylan Andrews.
Despite his submission success, Scott hasn’t put up big takedown numbers- landing just 2 at a 15% completion rate.
Askham has power, but his stoppages came over a pair of fighters with a combined 7 losses by knockout. His inability to match his opponent’s pace when he can’t finish doesn’t bode well for him against a pressure-based attack like Scott brings. Scott needs to stay in Askham’s face and use his forward aggression to take away the kicks of Askham while maintaining his own output- my prediction is Bradley Scott to defeat Scott Askham by decision.
135lbs- Lina Lansberg (6-1-0) vs Lucie Pudilova (6-1-0)
In the opening fight of the night, Lina “Elbow Queen” Lansberg returns from her encounter with the most dangerous woman on the planet to make her second UFC appearance in a rematch with the debuting Lucie “Bullett” Pudilova in the Bantamweight division. Lansberg is coming off her first career defeat, lasting into the middle round with Cris Cyborg before succumbing to a mass accumulation of damage. Pudilova has won 3 in a row dating back to a 2015 meeting with Lansberg- Lina won the fight by decision.
Pudilova is an inch taller and will have a 2″ reach advantage. She is 12 years younger than Lina. Pudilova is replacing Veronica Macedo on short notice.
Their first encounter was fairly underwhelming. Lansberg kept Pudilova pinned on the cage for the duration of the fight, with Lucie unable to create any separation. While Lina was holding position and landing some knees, the referee stepped in on 6 different occasions to force a break. At range, Pudilova didn’t have a lot to offer and was quickly clamped down on. Rinse and repeat.
Since their first encounter, the Czech fighter has picked up a pair of submission wins and a 5-round split decision triumph. But has she improved enough to change the outcome of this fight? Whether she has improved or not, making her debut on short notice is going to be difficult. Against Cyborg, Lansberg showed how tough she is. She hung in there and forced the former Invicta champ to the midway point of the fight despite taking a lot of damage. Lansberg has no reason to deviate from her previous clinch heavy gameplan and the minimal prep that Lucie has could make it difficult for her to hold up for an entire 3-rounds. Lansberg will wade through Lucie’s jab, control the clinch position, but this time around look for her to have more success with elbows and knees- my prediction is Lina Lansberg to defeat Lucie Pudilova by TKO.