UFC 160: Velasquez vs Bigfoot II Prelim Predictions

170lbs- Mike Pyle (24-8-1) vs. Rick Story (15-6-0)

What have they done recently?

Pyle- 3 straight wins, and only one loss in his last 7 fights

Story- wins in 2 of his last 3 fights

Key Victories

Pyle- Jon Fitch- Sub, John Hathaway- Dec, Josh Neer- KO, James Head- TKO

Story- Jake Ellenberger- Dec, Johny Hendricks- Dec, Thiago Alves- Dec

Key Defeats

Pyle- Quinton Jackson- Dec, Jake Shields- Sub, Jake Ellenberger- TKO, Rory MacDonald- TKO

Story- John Hathaway- Dec, Martin Kampmann- Dec, Demian Maia- Sub

Physical Comparison

Pyle- 3″ height and 3″ reach advantage

Strengths

Pyle- experience (33 fights), BJJ Brown belt, submissions (16 wins), wrestling, improving striking (3 straights knockout wins), TDD (72%)

Story- power/ strength, aggression, NAIA wrestler, takedowns (3.26 @ 53%), close range striking, SLpM 3.34

Weaknesses

Pyle- submission defense (4 losses), chin (3 KO losses), age

Story- grappling defense (Maia, Kampmann, Brenneman, & Hathaway fights), importance of TD edge (7-0 with TD edge & 1-4 without)

Prediction

This is a great match up of two ground oriented fighters that have really developed their striking acumen. Pyle has finished each of his last 3 opponents via first round knockout which adds a new dimension to his game considering 16 of his first 21 wins had come by submission. Story is coming off a TKO win over Quinn Mulhern which really showcased his power. He has won the majority of his fights by decision (8), but he unloads with a dangerous volume of strikes and does the best of his work hammering his opponent along the cage. Arguably his most noteworthy win was his 3 round decision over Thiago Alves where he effectively cut off the cage and batter him with short, but powerful strikes. Pyle has been finished 3 times by knockout, including his last two losses against Jake Ellenberger and Rory MacDonald. If Story can establish dominant top control or keep Pyle isolated along the wall he could unload with a fight ending assault similar to what ‘Quicksand’ has experienced before. For Story, he has had some issues with grappling based fighters. His most recent loss was a submission defeat against Demian Maia and he also has dropped fights to Martin Kampmann, Charlie Brenneman, and John Hathaway where he lost the total takedown battle 15-7 in those 4 fights. It appears imperative that Rick be able to win the takedown battle as he is far more effective when he can dictate the flow of the fight with his wrestling. Pyle has had success with his wrestling, most notably in the Hathaway fight where he dominated with 5 takedowns, but outside of that fight he rarely lands more then 2 takedowns per fight. His striking improvements have made him far more dangerous especially when you consider his 3″ height and 3″ reach advantage in this fight. Story absorbed some pretty decent shots against Quinn Mulhern in his attempt to close the distance which is something to be concerned with, but the clinch battle is his key to victory. James Head landed some significant shots along the wall before getting clipped with a knee and Josh Neer did some damage from this position as well. The manner in which Rory McDonald and Jake Ellenberger were able to overwhelm Pyle on the ground with their ground and pound is similar to what Story will bring and even before the fights goes horizontal look for Rick to punish Pyle’s body with power along the cage so my prediction is Rick Story to defeat Mike Pyle by TKO.

170lbs- Mike Pyle (24-8-1) vs. Rick Story (15-6-0) Mike Pyle $2.30 Rick Story $1.69 View Results  Loading ...

145lbs- Dennis Bermudez (11-3-0) vs. Max Holloway (7-1-0)

What have they done recently?

Bermudez- 3 straight wins, 3-1 to start UFC career

Holloway- 3 straight wins, 3-1 to start UFC career

Key Victories

Bermudez- Pablo Garza- Dec, Tommy Hayden- Sub, Matt Grice Split Dec

Holloway- Pat Schilling- Dec, Justin Lawrence- TKO, Leonard Garcia- Split Dec

Key Defeats

Bermudez- Drew Fickett- Sub, Diego Brandao- Sub

Holloway- Dustin Poirier- Sub

Physical Comparison

Holloway- 5″ height & 4″ reach advantage

Strengths

Bermudez- NCAA Division 1 wrestler, takedowns (3.79 @ 47%), aggression, knockout power (3 wins), durability, SLpM (5.11), cardio

Holloway- striking, reach/ height, patience, striking variety, poise, timing, body shots, SLpM (6.44), striking Defense (73%)

Weaknesses

Bermudez- susceptibility to getting hurt, over aggression, submission defense (3 losses), reach

Holloway- grappling defence, inexperience vs wrestlers

Prediction

Holloway is primarily a striker. He has shown next to no offensive ability on the ground, short of a couple half hearted submission attempts. He has excellent timing with his striking, uses a wide variety of techniques, and will work counters. He hasn’t shown nasty one punch knockout power but his high work rate will eventually take its toll on his opponent as was the case in the Lawrence fight. Bermudez is an NCAA D-1 wrestler and has outstanding grappling numbers in all but one category. His takedowns stats are great, his TDD % is outstanding and he has vicious GnP and submission skills. The only major concern with Bermudez is his submission defense with all 3 of his losses coming by tapout. While those numbers are concerning, as mentioned Holloway isn’t a huge submission threat. On the feet Bermudez is very aggressive and has dangerous power, with no better example then the final round of his last fight. He likes to come forward and wing big shots and he has been putting in the time to refine his boxing. One of the drawbacks to his aggressive style is that he will often over extend himself and leave openings for his opponent to counter. He has been hurt in multiple fights including getting dropped by a well timed left hook by Matt Grice. Holloway has to take advantage of these opportunities with his counter striking and follow up if he is able to hurt Bermudez and try for the finish. Holloway’s chances to trade with Bermudez could be limited though if he is unable to defend the wrestler’s shot. Bermudez can dominate a fight with his wrestling as he did against Pablo Garza and we have seen Max submitted (Poirier fight) and taken down in multiple fights (Poirier, Lawrence, and Garcia fights). He did show excellent TDD against Pat Schilling shucking off all 17 attempts, but Bermudez is a far more effective MMA wrestler then Schilling. Garcia had success using pressure and takedowns against Max and while some of that could be attributed to the late fight notice for Holloway, I expect Bermudez to have similar success. Look for Bermudez to control the flow of the fight with an aggressive takedown centric attack and while he might get hurt as he does in almost all of his fights look for him to overwhelm his opponent on the ground so my prediction is Dennis Bermudez to defeat Max Holloway by submission.

145lbs- Dennis Bermudez (11-3-0) vs. Max Holloway (7-1-0) Dennis Bermudez $1.40 Max Holloway $3.10 View Results  Loading ...

170lbs- Colton Smith (6-1-0) vs. Robert Whittaker (11-2-0)

What have they done recently?

Smith- won UFC debut, TUF 16 Champion

Whittaker- won UFC debut, TUF Smashes Champion

Key Victories

Smith- Mike Ricci- Dec

Whittaker- Ben Alloway- Sub, Brad Scott- Dec

Key Defeats

Smith- Steve Montgomery- KO

Whittaker-  Hoon Kim- Sub, Jesse Juarez- Dec

Physical Comparison

Even

Strengths

Smith- grappling, stamina, pressure

Whittaker- finishing skills (4 KOs & 5 subs), SLpM (5.53 in debut), striking repetoire

Weaknesses

Smith- inexperience (4 fights), chin (1 loss by KO)

Whittaker- SApM (3.67 in debut), grappling defence (1 loss by submission)

Prediction

In a battle of recent TUF winners this fight comes down to whether or not Colton can get his grappling game going. Smith brings a smothering wrestling based attack that helped him to win the TUF tournament including a dominant victory over Mike Ricci in the finals. Whittaker on the other hands has a far more diverse attack with 4 wins by knockout and 5 by submission. On route to winning the first installment of the TUF Smashes he picked up a pair of knockout wins before a decision in finals. Whittaker has a significant experience advantage at 12 pro fights to 4, but he has never faced an opponent with the grappling capabilities of Smith. Whittaker’s two defeats came as the result of a submission and ground oriented decision loss and in his win over Brad Scott there were couple of difficult exchanges on the ground with the Aussie getting the worst of them. Colton has only 4 fights and has been knocked out once which raises a major concern about his ability to deal with adversity and the consequence of taking a power shot from Whittaker. If Whittaker can keep this fight standing he should have a striking edge, but that has been the case for pretty much all of Colton’s recent opponents. Smith’s takedowns are hard to defend, pushing his opponent into the cage on most occasions and breaking them down with a relentless grinding attack. Look for Smith to show some improvement in his striking but still rely on his ground game as the focal point of the attack, dragging Whittaker to the  ground and putting him in some tough positions. If Whittaker can land he could change the course of this fight, but his in experience with this level of grappling will severely limit his opportunities so my predictions is Colton Smith to defeat Robert Whittaker by submission.

170lbs- Colton Smith (6-1-0) vs. Robert Whittaker (11-2-0) Colton Smith $1.47 Robert Whittaker $2.90 View Results  Loading ...

155lbs- Khabib Nurmagomedov (19-0-0) vs. Abel Trujillo (10-4-0)

What have they done recently?

Nurmagomedov- undefeated with 19 wins, 3 to start UFC run

Trujillo- 5 straight wins, including UFC debut

Key Victories

Nurmagomedov- Shahbulat Shamhalaev- Sub, Gleison Tibau- Dec, Thiago Tavares- KO

Trujillo- Marcus LeVesseur- TKO

Key Defeats

Nurmagomedov- None

Trujillo- Alonzo Martinez- Sub

Physical Comparison

Nurmagomedov- 2″ height advantage

Strengths

Nurmagomedov- International Master of Sambo, Judo Black belt, submissions (7 wins), knockout power (7 wins), pace, Striking Defence (70%), TDD (100%), Unorthodox style

Trujillo- NAIA wrestler, physical strength, knockout power, SLpM (6.38 in debut)

Weaknesses

Nurmagomedov- awkward striking defence, raises chin when under pressure

Trujillo- submission defence (2 losses), inexperience

Prediction

Trujillo looked great in his debut, but it was against an underwhelming opponent. Nurmagomedov has been making his unorthodox and at times awkward looking style work for him earning some pretty impressive wins. Both guys have grappling backgrounds with Trujillo a collegiate wrestlers and Nurmagomedov the Judo and Sambo specialist. Abel has had trouble in past fights defending the grappling attack of his opponents, but his takedown defense looked solid in his debut against a pretty decent wrestler. Trujillo is going to have to deal with the relentless pressure of Nurmagomedov’s grappling attack especially along the wall. Gleison Tibau had a tonne of trouble keeping Khabib off of him and although he wasn’t able to get the fight to the ground, he was still the one dictating the flow of action. Trujillo was effective at punishing LeVesseur on his shot attempts which eventually turned the fight in his favour and he will need to do the same here. If he can get into a position to attack on the ground he has vicious power and throws a variety of nasty strikes including some well placed elbow and knees. On the feet the Russian’s awkward striking style and unconventional style of leaping into his punches are going to give his inexperienced opponent fits. At times Khabib’s style can make you cringe, but the leaping uppercut he blasted Thiago Tavares with was perfectly executed. If Trujillo can put enough pressure on his Khabib to keep him backing up this could give him ample opportunities to land on his chin. Nurmagomedov raises his chin when he is pressured and while this hasn’t cost him yet it could be a fight ending mistake when an opponent is able to take capitalize on it. Overall, Nurmagomedov is the more well rounded fighter and should have advantages in speed and with his work rate. Trujillo looked physically imposing in his debut, but skill will win out here so my prediction is Khabib Nurmagomedov to defeat Abel Trujillo by submission.

155lbs- Khabib Nurmagomedov (19-0-0) vs. Abel Trujillo (10-4-0) Khabib Nurmagomedov $1.38 Abel Trujillo $3.36 View Results  Loading ...

170lbs- Nah-Shon Burrell (9-2-0) vs. Stephen Thompson (6-1-0)

What have they done recently?

Burrell- won UFC debut, winner of 7 of his last 8

Thompson- 6 fight winning streak to start career ended in last fight

Key Victories

Burrell-  Yuri Villefort- Dec, James Terry- Dec Split,

Thompson- Dan Stittgen- KO

Key Defeats

Burrell- Chris Spang- TKO

Thompson- Matt Brown- Dec

Physical Comparison

Thompson- 1″ height and 1″ reach advantage

Strengths

Burrell- boxing, knockout power (6 of 9 wins), speed, wrestling

Thompson- Black belt in kickboxing, Black belt in Karate, knockout power (3 of 6 wins), kicking technique, SLpM (4.63), BJJ Blue belt

Weaknesses

Burrell- inexperience, chin, conditioning (if pushed), weight cut (miss badly in debut)

Thompson- grappling defence, inexperience, 13 month layoff, cardio, durability

Prediction

In what should be a striker versus striker battle, we have Thompson’s kickboxing arsenal against the ever improving boxing game of Burrell. Thompson is an accomplished kickboxer and karate fighter and he showed it in his debut bludgeoning his opponent with a beautifully executed modified roundhouse kick. There is no doubting his striking skills, but in his second UFC performance he was simply out worked and beaten up by Matt Brown (an upset I picked). Brown used a ground centric attack and was able to negate a lot of what Thompson had going for him in the stand-up. Burrell won his debut using a solid mix of boxing, leading with a jab and landing some decent power shots behind it. He finished his Strikeforce career with a 3-1 record, with his only defeat coming via knockout in his final fight. Against Chris Spang he was holding his own in the exchanges before getting clipped, smashed with a couple of knees, and ultimately finished by a fighter with similar striking tendencies to Thompson. That fight should serve as a lesson, encouraging him to do a better job of mixing up his striking attack with his wrestling to keep a primarily striking based fighter from settling in. Thompson’s knockout in his debut was fantastic, but his opponent in that fight was a grappler who made the poor choice to stand at range with Stephen allowing him to measure and attack. Thompson likes to use a sideways stance to kick from and while this can be a challenging front for his opponent, if they are able to use pressure and prevent him from setting up like Brown did he isn’t nearly as effective. Burrell’s wrestling isn’t that great, but if he is able to establish some kind threat that should serve to keep his opponent from getting comfortable. Further, look for Burrell to keep this fight at boxing range, inside of Thompson’s kicking range which that along with his pressure will take away one of ’Wonderboy’s’ most significant weapons. Thompson has minimal experience, has yet to beat a true UFC calibre opponent, and has been out of action for over a year, which are all concerns so my prediction is Nah-Shon Burrell to defeat Stephen Thompson by decision.

170lbs- Nah-Shon Burrell (9-2-0) vs. Stephen Thompson (6-1-0) Nah-Shon Burrell $2.40 Stephen Thompson $1.63 View Results  Loading ...

135lbs- Brian Bowles (10-2-0) vs. George Roop (13-10-1)

What have they done recently?

Bowles- had his 3 fight winning streak snapped in his last fight

Roop- ended a 2 fight losing streak in his last fight

Key Victories

Bowles- Miguel Torres- KO, Takeya Mizugaki- Dec, Damacio Page- Sub x2

Roop- Chan-Sung Jung- KO, Josh Grispi- TKO, Reuben Duran- Dec

Key Defeats

Bowles- Dominick Cruz- TKO, Urijah Faber- Sub

Roop- Cub Swanson- KO, Hatsu Hioki- Spli Dec, Mark Hominick- KO, Eddie Winlenad- Dec

Physical Comparison

Roop- 6″ height and 1.5″ reach advantage

Strengths

Bowles- BJJ Brown belt, submissions (6 wins), knockout power (3 wins), striking, striking defense (66%), takedowns (70%)

Roop- height/ reach, submissions (4 wins), SLpM (3.28), takedowns (69%)

Weaknesses

Bowles- breaking hands, 19 month layoff

Roop- cut to 135, chin (2 losses by knockout), submission defense (4 losses)

Prediction

Brian Bowles, where have you been? He is returning to action after a huge layoff from competition which is the biggest concern for him heading into this bout. A close second might be his history of breaking his hands which ultimately cost him the WEC 135 pound title and the impact that would have should it occur in this fight. Roop won his return to 135, but this is a major step up competition. At 6’1″ he is extremely tall for a 135er and the cut badly restricted him in his only 135 fight in the WEC, but he looked much better in his last fight. Roop is an underrated fighter and tough out for anyone He has decent striking and his ground game is certainly serviceable. His chin is suspect which is something that Bowles will be looking to target. Bowles has just 3 wins by knockout, but his KO win over Miguel Torres to win the WEC title was an indication of his power. He has solid striking technique and he keeps things simple but effective. Roop has a tendency to raise his chin up and back straight up which has set him up for multiple knockout losses including his defeats against Mark Hominick and Cub Swanson. Cutting to 135 gives him an edge in reach and height but it also takes so much away from him physically that he might not be able to take a big shot from the former champ. Both guys are skilled on the ground, with Bowles taking 6 wins by submission and Roop 4. Bowles has a nasty guillotine choke which he has used in each of his last 3 submission wins and if Roop does try to take this fight to the ground his neck will surely be a target. Roop is skilled on the mat, but he doesn’t use those skills that often average 1.08 takedowns per fight. Overall, the skill and speed of Bowles will be the most significant element in this fight. Roop faired much better then expected in his 135 debut, but he will struggle to keep up with Bowles on the feet and as he slows down he will become even more vulnerable so my prediction is Brian Bowles to defeat George Roop by knockout.

135lbs- Brian Bowles (10-2-0) vs. George Roop (13-10-1) Brian Bowles $1.36 George Roop $3.30 View Results  Loading ...

145lbs- Estevan Payan (14-3-0 1NC) vs. Jeremy Stephens (20-9-0)

What have they done recently?

Payan- 5 straight wins, undefeated in 8

Stephens- 3 straight losses

Key Victories

Payan- Luis Palomino- Split Dec, Alonzo Martinez- Dec, Mike Bravo- TKO

Stephens- Marcus Davis- TKO, Sam Stout- Split Dec, Rafael dos Anjos- TKO, Cole Miller- TKO

Key Defeats

Payan- Karen Darabedyan- TKO, Yahir Reyes- KO

Stephens- Joe Lauzon- Sub, Gleison Tibau- Dec, Donald Cerrone- Dec, Anthony Pettis- Split Dec

Physical Comparison

Payan- 1″ height and 1″ reach advantage

Strengths

Payan- technical boxing skills, knockout power (5 wins), leg kicks

Stephens- knockout power (14 wins), experience (29 fights, size, BJJ black belt, UFC experience

Weaknesses

Payan- 145 debut, UFC debut, inexperience vs elite opponents

Stephens-submission defence (3 losses), 145 debut, head hunting, lack of speed, mental focus

Prediction

Stephens is making the cut to 145 out of pure desperation after 3 straight losses. Payan is also making his 145 debut, but at a far different point in his career having won 5 in a row. Stephens has serious knockout power with 14 wins by KO while fighting at Lightweight. The key to his success at 145 will be his power and how well it translates to his new weight class. Payan is a technically sound boxer and has picked up 5 of his 14 wins by knockout including a second round stoppage in his final Strikeforce appearance. In addition to his hands, Payan will use a heavy low kick which he will implement to severely slow down his adversary. On the ground, Stephens is a BJJ Black belt with 3 wins by submission (none since 2007) and he averages 1.54 takedowns at 46%. He has put up some significant takedown numbers including 3 against both Anthony Pettis and Sam Stout, and 6 in the Danny Downes fight. Payan has never been submitted, and has picked up 3 wins by submission of his own. He has shown decent takedown defense in his two Strikeforce appearances including stopping all 8 TDAs in his promotional debut. Stephens will be the more likely of the two to look for takedowns and could earn some serious points with the judges if can find success with his wrestling. If Payan can keep this fight standing there is still the issue of ‘Lil Heathen’s’ power. Stephens has picked up 4 UFC wins by knockout, but his focus on KOing his opponent has resulted in him throwing primarily power punches with next to no set up. He is coming off the first knockout loss of his career which was the result of a well timed counter, Donald Cerrone badly outclassed him on the feet, and there have been a number of other fights where he was struggling to keep up with the more technically oriented opponent. Cutting to 145 might not be the answer to his recent struggles as he will now be forced to deal with faster and even more skilled strikers at 145 which will make landing a knockout punch even more difficult. Payan is also cutting from 155, which is a wild card, but his frame appears more suited for the division. It is hard to anticipate how the cut will go for Stephens, but he seems to fit the mold of a number of other former 155ers (Joe Stevenson comes to mind) that tried to make a cut to 145 to save their careers and it just didn’t go well. Look for Payan to use a more technical approach to avoid the power of Stephens, utilize his low kicks to stay away form Stephens’s power while slowing him down, and as the impact of the weight cut takes effect Jeremy will struggle to match his Payan’s striking output so my prediction is Estevan Payan to defeat Jeremy Stephens by decision.

145lbs- Estevan Payan (14-3-0 1NC) vs. Jeremy Stephens (20-9-0) Jeremy Stephens $1.40 Estevan Payan $2.92 View Results  Loading ...

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