UFC Fight for the Troops 3- Prelim Predictions

Prelim Predictions

PRELIMINARY FIGHTS START IN:

 

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155lbs- Bobby Green (20-5-0) vs. James Krause (20-4-0)

What have they done recently?

Green- 5 fight winning streak including UFC debut

Krause- 8 fight winning streak, including his UFC debut

Key Victories

Green- Daron Cruickshank- Sub, Jacob Volkman- Sub, Matt Ricehouse- Dec, Charles Bennett- KO

Krause-  Sam Stout- Sub, Anthony Smith- Sub, Michael Johnson- Sub, Toby Imada- Dec

Key Defeats

Green- Gesias Cavalcante- Split Dec, Tim Means- TKO, David Mitchell- Sub, Dan Lauzon- Sub

Krause- Donald Cerrone- Sub, Ricardo Lamas- Dec, Toby Imada- Sub, Clay French- Split Dec

Physical Comparison

Krause- 4″ height and 2″ reach advantage

Big 4 Strengths

Green- knockout power (7 KOs), striking, BJJ Blue belt, speed

Krause- submissions (13 wins), sweeps/ reversals, distance management, variety of kicks (head)

Big 4 Weaknesses

Green- grappling defense, 10 month layoff, SLpM (1.55), reach/ distance

Krause- takedown defense, submission defense (2 subs), SApM (3.49), point scoring (2-2 in decisions)

Key(s) to Victory

Green- Bobby needs to get on the side, land combinations and keep Krause backing up. If he takes the fight to the ground, positional control is a must to avoid getting swept.

Krause- James needs to use his long jab and kicks to keep Green on the outside. Mix up his attacks to keep him guessing and makes attempts to take Green down to both score point and draw his attention away from the striking exchanges.

Key(s) to Defeat

Green- Bobby can’t trade with Krause at distance and he can’t allow James to get caught up in Jame’s long limbs and capable submission skills on the mat.

Krause- Krause ha to remain active and prevent Green from outworking him.

Prediction

This is a great matchup of two talented prospects, coming off of impressive upsets in their respective UFC debuts, but it is a shame that one of them has to lose. Green has a little bit of an unorthodox striking style, slipping punches and landing with decent power. He has a strong body kick, and does a decent job of moving in and out of range when his opponent returns fire. With 7 wins by knockout, he has big league stopping power. Krause has the more diverse repertoire, with a variety of kicking techniques ranging from the traditional to the more unorthodox. He is tall Lightweight and really knows how to use his reach, snapping of a sharp jab followed by long ranging combinations. His head movement and footwork are solid and he is a difficult fighter to hit. On the mat, Krause is dangerous, both fighters have good submission numbers, but the combination of Krause’s offensive skills and the ability to sweep/reverse his way from a bad position in a good one is fight changing. Green is decent on the mat, but he has been tapped out twice and was in a number of bad positions against Jacob Volkman, not really turning the tide until his opponent gassed.

Green rallied against a fading opponent in his debut, while Krause was ahead for most of the bout, hurting early and then submitting a very durable Sammy Stout- no small feat. Krause will limit the damage Green does on the feet, utilizing a heavy kick attack, before tying him up on the mat, so my prediction is James Krause to defeat Bobby Green by submission.

Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.

135lbs- Francisco Rivera (9-2-0 1NC) vs. George Roop (14-10-1)

What have they done recently?

Rivera- undefeated in his last 5, 4-0-0 1NC

Roop- 2 fight winning streak

Key Victories

Rivera-

Roop- Brian Bowles- TKO, Chan-Sung Jung- KO, Josh Grispi- TKO, Reuben Duran- Dec

Key Defeats

Rivera-

Roop- Cub Swanson- KO, Hatsu Hioki- Spli Dec, Mark Hominick- KO, Eddie Winlenad- Dec

Physical Comparison

Roop- 4″ height and 2″ reach advantage

Big 4 Strengths

Rivera- knockout power (6 KOs) Muay Thai, SLpM (4.6), physical strength

Roop- height/ reach, submissions (4 wins), SLpM (3.45, kicking arsenal

Big 4 Weaknesses

Rivera- 10 month layoff, SApM (3.06), defensive grappling, offensive grappling

Roop- cut to 135, chin (2 KOs), submission defense (4 subs), striking defense

Key(s) to Victory

Rivera- River needs to pressure Roop to nullify his kicking game and land with power. Roop holds his head up which exposes his chin, and Rivera has the power to capitalize on this once he is able to get on the side. When Roop opens up to attack, well-timed counters will be a great answer for Rivera, especially if he can time Roops low kick and answer with a big overhand right.

Roop- George needs to use his length, highlight by a stiff jab and heavy front kick, to keep Rivera on the outside. By keeping his opponent at an uncomfortable range he will limit both the quantity of strikes landed and their impact. If Roop can mix in a few takedowns he will gain a further advantage and the longer the fight goes the more it favours him based on conditioning.

Keys(s) to Defeat

Rivera- If Roop successfully attacks with a grappling based assault this will put Rivera down on the scorecards, tax his cardio, and potentially set submission opportunities.

Roop- He can’t stand and trade with Rivera at close range, the combination of his power and George’s chin will be fight ending.

Prediction

With back to back wins Roop has resurrected his career, but the glaring holes in his striking defense still exist and nearly cost him in his last bout. He is a tall fighter, which naturally makes his chin an easier target to attack. He tends to leave his head up and chin pointed outwards, which is a major issue against powerful strikers- Mark Hominick and Cub Swanson have already capitalized on this flaw. Rivera has devastating power and sharp Muay Thai technique to deliver it with. He has unofficially (No contest vs Delorme), scored a pair of UFC knockouts and multiple knockdowns. He lands a high volume of strikes and is capable of pursuing the attack as well as countering. Roop has some power and a respectable kicking arsenal, but his reach, which is a key element in protecting his chin, won’t be as big a factor against Rivera who manages distance very well.

If Roop can switch gears and threaten with his takedowns that would be a significant positive for him, but he seems content on trading with his opponents and that will cost him here. Rivera’s cardio is an issue and Roop still isn’t getting the respect he deserves, but my prediction is Francisco Rivera to defeat George Roop by TKO.

Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.

145lbs- Dennis Bermudez (12-3-0) vs. Steven Siler (23-10-0)

What have they done recently?

Bermudez- 4 fight winning streak

Siler- 2 fight winning streak

Key Victories

Bermudez- Max Holloway- Split Dec, Pablo Garza- Dec, Tommy Hayden- Sub, Matt Grice Split Dec

Siler- Mike Brown- TKO, Cole Miller- Dec, Kurt Holobaugh- Dec, Joey Gambino- Sub, Josh Clopton- Dec

Key Defeats

Bermudez- Drew Fickett- Sub, Diego Brandao- Sub

Siler- Darren Elkins- Dec, Cole Escovedo- Sub, Chad Mendes- Dec

Physical Comparison

Siler- 5″ height and 4″ reach advantages

Big 4 Strengths

Bermudez- NCAA Division 1 wrestler, takedowns (3.85 @ 47%), durability, SLpM (5.04)

Siler- submissions (13), SLpM (3.71), clinch game, height/ reach

Big 4 Weaknesses

Bermudez- SApM (3.83), over aggression, submission defense (3 losses), distance management

Siler- submission defence (5 losses), chin (4 KO losses), SApM (3.27), wrestlers (Elkins 6 of 7 TDs)

Key(s) to Victory

Bermudez- Dennis has to close the distance, avoid getting tagged in the process, and do damage at close range before dragging the fight to the ground where he can land some big shots and/or go for a submission.

Siler- ‘Super’ Steve needs to use his reach and punish Bermudez on the outside, if and when Bermudez’s tries to close the distance Siler can look for his Thai clinch to control and damage Bermudez with knees and elbows. When Bermudez tries for a takedown, Steven should counter with a submission (guillotine) to back him off, and if the fight does go to the ground he needs to be offensive with his sub attempts.

Key(s) to Defeat

Bermudez- If his wrestling is nullified by the distance and defense of his opponent he will have trouble scoring point, similarly his striking will be far less impactful based on the same scenario.

Siler- He can’t afford to spend too much time on his back, even if he is offensive, fighting off of his back is viewed as losing the fight.

Prediction

Despite competing in the same weight class, these two fighters have vastly different physical compositions.  Siler is long and lean, with a good reach, while Bermudez is compact with explosive power. Bermudez struggled in his last fight with the rangy striking attack of Max Holloway, who kept Dennis on the outside limiting both his striking and wrestling success. Whenever Dennis would get on the inside, he was either thwarted with a quick submission attempt or solid defensive work. Siler has nasty sub skills of his own, including 6 wins by guillotine, and he is equally as strong in the clinch position. If he can keep Bermudez on the outside with his reach and threaten with his close range weapons he should be able to reproduce Bermudez’s previous difficulties.

A bastion of both fighters’ in-cage competition is excitement; they are aggressive and proven finishers with a combined 32 of 47 contests ending before the scorecards. While Siler has suffered more defeats via finish then his counterpart, Bermudez regularly get hurts in his bouts, before rallying back for the win. The law of averages would suggest that eventually one of these scenarios will result in defeat and Siler’s ability to finish could be the key. Bermudez has the tools to win this fight, but his ability to get in a position to use them is going to be a problem, so my prediction is Steven Siler to defeat Dennis Bermudez by submission.

Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.

135lbs- Amanda Nunes (8-3-0) vs. Germaine de Randamie (4-2-0)

What have they done recently?

Nunes- victorious in UFC debut

de Randamie- back to back wins, including her UFC debut

Key Victories

Nunes- Sheila Gaff- TKO, Julia Budd- KO, Raquel Pa’aluhi- Sub

de Randamie- Julie Kedzie- Split Dec, Hiroko Yamanaka- Dec, Stephanie Webber- KO

Key Defeats

Nunes- Alexis Davis- TKO, Sarah D’Alelio- Dec

de Randamie- Julia Budd- Dec, Vanessa Porto- Sub

Physical Comparison

de Randamie- 4″ height and 2″ reach advantages

Big 4 Strengths

Nunes- knockout power (7 KOs), BJJ & Judo Brown belts, aggression, GnP

de Randamie- Muay Thai Champion, knockout power, SApM (1.3), clinch work

Big 4 Weaknesses

Nunes- inexperience (11 fights), SApM (5,47), over aggression, cardio

de Randamie-  inexperience (6 fights), grappling defense, grappling offense, SLpM (2.21)

Key(s) to Victory

Nunes- Amanda has to pressure her opponent and keep her backing up to shutdown her kicking game. When she gets in close she has to land high volume and heavy handed barrages and/or change levels for a takedown. On the mat, be aggressive and look to exploit her opponent’s shortcomings.

de Randamie- Germaine needs to use her kicks and long range combination, leading with a sharp jab, when fighting at distance. When Nunes closes the distance, Germaine needs to tie up and establish her modified Thai clinch from which she can control her opponent and land some sharp knees to the body.

Key(s) to Defeat

Nunes- She can’t afford to trade at distance with her opponent who will have a reach and technical advantage.

de Randamie- If she can’t defend the TDAs, she will either drop a decision or some form of stoppage.

Prediction

De Randamie is a World class Muay Thai striker, and as long as she can keep her opponent exchanging on the feet she is in a good position to win the fight. Training out of AKA she will be working diligently to improve her grappling defense, but live competition is an entirely different animal. Nunes has just a single win via submission, but she is a BJJ and Judo Brown belt, so she is a well trained grappler. She showed vastly improved technique in her UFC debut, grounding her opponent, passing her guard, and eventually pounding her out. If she can get this fight to the ground it is her’s to win. On the feet she is heavy handed, with real world knockout power, and she is aggressive. She throws high volume barrages and moves forward, which will serve to shutdown a more technically based opponent.

If Nunes gets wild she could get clipped with a counter strike, but look for de Randamie’ striking attack to be far less effective on account of the takedown threat. Nunes needs to brawl the boxer which could lead to a knockout, and if not then she will transition to a grappling based attack. Nunes is a handful from top position, especially from full mount with her ground and pound, and de Randamie is still learning how to defend off of her back, so my prediction is Amanda Nunes to defeat Germaine de Randamie by TKO.

Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.

185lbs- Chris Camozzi (19-6-0) vs. Lorenz Larkin (13-1-0 1NC)

What have they done recently?

Camozzi- 4 fight winning streak snapped in last appearence

Larkin- lost UFC debut

Key Victories

Camozzi- Nick Ring- Split Dec, Luiz Cane- Dec, Nick Catone- TKO, Dongi Yang- Split Dec

Larkin- Scott Lighty- TKO, Gian Villante- Dec, Robbie Lawler- Dec

Key Defeats

Camozzi- Ronaldo Souza- Sub, Francis Carmont- Dec, Kyle Noke- Sub, Jesse Taylor- Dec

Larkin- Francis Carmont- Dec, Mo Lawal*- No Contest

Physical Comparison

Camozzi-4″ height and 3″ reach advantages

Big 4 Strengths

Camozzi- durability, size, SLpM 3.93, clinch fighting, BJJ Purple belt

Larkin- kickboxing, knockout power (8 KOs), SLpM (3.14), SApM (1.99), speed

Big 4 Weaknesses

Camozzi- submission defense (4 losses), SApM (3.18), speed, takedowns (0% @ 0.00)

Larkin- grappling defense, size, offensive grappling,

Key(s) to Victory

Camozzi- Chris needs to turn this fight into a brawl. Pressure Larkin to keep him moving backwards to limit his kicks and use his size to control him on the cage.

Larkin- Lorenz has to maintain separation, using his foot speed and kicks to set a comfortable distance. He should have a decided speed and technical striking advantages that he must exploit.

Key(s) to Defeat

Camozzi- Camozzi can’t afford to allow Lorenz to tee off at range, especially with his leg kicks.

Larkin- He can’t let Camozzi cut of the cage and push his back into the wall.

Prediction

Camozzi is a durable and gritty fighter, but he lacks a technical refinement in both his striking and grappling games that will prevent him from reaching that next level of competition. Conversely, Larkin is a talented and hard hitting striker that is dangerous if allowed to land with regularity. His biggest issue has been his grappling defense, but he demonstrated excellent TDD against Francis Carmont, and Camozzi hasn’t shown the type of grappling skills to be considered a real threat. Camozzi had a lot of trouble keeping up with the speed of Nick Ring during the exchanges and that issue should be revisited and magnified based on the capabilities of Larkin.

Unless Camozzi can bring his size to bear on his opponent through a grappling heavy assault, he won’t be able to match him on the feet. Look for Larkin to string together devastating combinations, while further slowing down his opponent’s speed with continual leg kicks, so my prediction is Lorenz Larkin to defeat Chris Camozzi by TKO.

Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.

155lbs- Yves Edwards (42-20-1) vs. Yancy Medeiros (9-1-0)

What have they done recently?

Edwards- 1-3 in his last 4 fights

Medeiros- suffered first loss of his career in his UFC debut

Key Victories

Edwards- Josh Thomson- KO, Jeremy Stephens- KO, Rafaello Oliveira- TKO, Cody McKenzie- Sub

Medeiros- Raul Castillo- Dec, Gareth Joseph- KO

Key Defeats

Edwards- Isaac Vallie-Flagg- Split Dec, Sam Stout- KO, Jorge Masvidal- KO, K.J. Noons- KO

Medeiros- Rustam Khabilov- TKO (injury)

Physical Comparison

Medeiros- 1″ height & 4″ reach advantages

Big 4 Strengths

Edwards- experience (63 fights), knockout power (16 wins), submissions (17 wins), TDD (71%)

Medeiros- knockout power (6 KOs), striking, size (cutting from MW to LW), Strikeforce/ UFC debut experience

Big 4 Weaknesses

Edwards- chin (4 KOs), submission defense (4 subs), cardio,technical strikers (Stout, Noons, Ludwig, Masvidal, Hominick)

Medeiros- 8 month layoff, inexperience (10 fights), elite level inexperience, offensive grappling

Key(s) to Victory

Edwards- Yves needs to dictate the pace of the fight, mix up his forward pressure and counter striking, and working to include some grappling would add another dimension to his attack.

Medeiros- Yancy has to pressure Edwards, be aggressive with his striking and move forward trying to land big bombs. If he can clinch up and grind Edwards along the cage that could generate some cardio issues.

Key(s) to Defeat

Edwards- Yves can’t allow his opponent to dictate the pace or land with big power.

Medeiros- He can’t let Yves get off first during the exchanges.

Prediction

This is a pairing of two fighters at the polar ends of the spectrum; Yves has fought just about everyone, while Yancy is just getting started. The most prominent scenario in most of Edward’s fights is his ability to take a punch and whether his opponent can exploit it or not. Edwards has been KOed 4 times in his career, which is a lot, but considering he has fought 63 times its not as significant as many make it out to be. He is good striker, with a dangerous left high kick and solid countering skills. Medeiros has knockout power, 6 of 9 wins by KO, including his last Strikeforce appearance. While his debut ended quickly due to injury, he was showing some good techniques and movement on the feet, including landing a well disguised sharp right hand. Additionally, he was able to counter and scramble with a very good Sambo practitioner on the mat, partially defending an attempted suplex by interlacing his leg with his opponent’s. What he showed here, combined with his previous success is an indication of pretty decent set of skills for a young fighter, but will it be enough to beat Yves?

The aggression that Yancy brought his debut should way heavily with the judges against Yves, who has a tendency to sit back and try to counter. Additionally, his 4″ reach advantage will aid him during the exchanges and considering this will be his second cut to 155 he should be more prepared physically. Edwards has a lot of tools and tonne of experience, but his chin, potential cardio issues, and complacency are a major concern against a younger and hungrier fighter, so my prediction is Yancy Medeiros to defeat Yves Edwards by TKO.

Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.

170lbs- Seth Baczynski (17-8-0) vs. Neil Magny (8-3-0)

What have they done recently?

Baczynski- back to back losses

Magny- 2 fight winning streak snapped in last bout

Key Victories

Baczynski- Matt Brown- Sub, Lance Benoist- Split Dec, Simeon Thoresen- KO, Clay Harvison- Sub

Magny- Jon Manley- Dec

Key Defeats

Baczynski- Brian Melancon- KO, Mike Pierce- Dec, Brad Tavares- Dec, Roger Bowling- KO

Magny- Seriog Moraes- Sub

Physical Comparison

Magny- 6″ reach advantage

Big 4 Strengths

Baczynski- KO power (6 wins), submission (10 wins), Thai clinch, UFC experience (7 fights)

Magny- SLpM (3.29), long range striking weapons, clinch fighting, BJJ Purple belt

Big 4 Weaknesses

Baczynski- takedowns (0.45 @ 13%), TDD ( 9 TDs in last 2 losses), submission defence (5 losses), chin (2 KOs)

Magny- inexperience (10 fights), submission defense (2 subs), Fight IQ, elite level inexperience

Key(s) to Victory

Baczynski- Seth has to make this a physical grinding fight, get on the inside, bust up Magny with some dirty boxing, and drag this fight to the ground where he can start looking for submission or landing some ground and pound.

Magny- Neil will have the reach advantage, which his opponent won’t be use too. Long range combinations and leg kicks will do damage and the fewer strikes he can limit his opponent to will greatly impact the outcome of the fight.

Key(s) to Defeat

Baczynski- He can’t get stuck at the end of his opponent’s reach, his chin is a major question mark coming off of his last fight and he can’t allow it to become an issue here.

Magny- His submission defense is a major question mark and if he spends too much time on his back he will either drop a decision or get finished.

Prediction

This is a battle of big men at 170 pounds. Baczynski is normally the taller man inside the cage, but standing equal at 6’3″, Magny will have a sizeable 6″ reach advantage. Seth has had some trouble maximizing his reach, most notably getting blasted out of consciousness by Brian Melancon. Conversely, Magny is quite effective at using his long range weapons, including a sharp jab, to keep opponents at bay while doing damage. This factor should be further magnified by Bacynski’s lack of experience dealing with this scenario. Statistically, Magny does a much better job of outlanding his opponent, while Seth exchanges at a rate of almost 1 to 1. These numbers magnified over a 15 minute fight significantly favour Magny. In close, both men can do damage from the clinch position, but their respective capabilities could lead to a stalemate when they tie up.

Seth has better submission numbers and would benefit from getting this fight to the ground in top position, but he has poor takedown numbers and Magny showed excellent TDD in his UFC debut. Additionally, Magny is a BJJ purple belt and should be able to do enough defensively to limit the damage done from the position if he were to be taken down. Magny’s striking skills and volume, along with the cardio advantage gained from training at altitude will be the deciding factors in this fight, so my prediction is Neil Magny to defeat Seth Baczynski by decision.

Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.

185lbs- Derek Brunson (10-2-0) vs. Brian Houston (4-0-0)

What have they done recently?

Brunson- snapped 2 fight losing streak in UFC debut

Houston- 4 straight wins to start pro career

Key Victories

Brunson- Chris Leben- Dec, Lumumba Sayers- Sub,  Nate James- Dec

Houston- Jett Jones- TKO

Key Defeats

Brunson- Ronaldo Souza- KO,  Kendall Grove- Split Dec

Houston- None

Physical Comparison

Equal

Strengths

Brunson- NCAA D-2 wrestler, takedowns (2.69 @41%), top control, knockout power (4 KOs)

Houston- knockout power (3 of 4 wins), top game, physical strength,

Weaknesses

Brunson- inexperience (12 fights), striking defense, cardio, SLpM (1.61), striking

Houston- inexperience (4 fights), UFC debut, lack of adversity faced, only one fight beyond the first round

Key(s) to Victory

Brunson- Derek needs to use his wrestling, plant Houston on his back and grind him into the mat- leading to either a late finish or decision win.

Houston- Brian has to be aggressive with his striking, land with big power and try burry Brunson under avalanche of GnP once the fight goes to the mat. Sprawl and Brawl.

Key(s) to Defeat

Brunson- He can’t afford to stand and bang with Houston.

Houston- Too much time on his back will cost him his cardio and eventually the fight.

Prediction

Unless this fight ends early, it most likely won’t be pretty. Brunson is a grinding wrestler type, with a green striking attack. He is coming off a successful debut, that was a win, but still a poor performance. If he can use his wrestling skills to ground Houston he should have no problem grinding out a decision win, but he needs to avoid trading with him. Houston is taking this bout on short notice and even more interestingly making his Octagon debut in only his 5th pro bout. There are a lot of questions regarding how he got the call; with no big wins on his short fight resume, no discernible fighter affiliations, and nothing that really stands out in his fight game. He has decent grappling skills, big power, and for the most part looks to either sprawl and brawl or, defend the takedown and move into a dominant position on the mat. He has recorded 3 knockouts, 2 inside the first minute and the third coming before the 2 minute mark. These numbers are impressive, but consideration needs to be given to the lower level of opposition he has been doing it against.

Brunson hasn’t been that impressive in his short career, but he has advantages in experience and quality of opponent faced. Conversely, the “UFC’s powers that be” must see something in Houston to give him this shot, even if on the opening fight of the fight. Brunson does leave openings in his striking that can be exploited by a power striker and Houston is a decent athlete that knows how to use a sprawl to keep the fight standing. There isn’t a tonne to go on here, but look for Houston to defend the early takedowns and unload on his opponent with fight ending power, so my prediction is Brian Houston to defeat Derek Brunson by TKO.

265lbs- Todd Duffee (8-2-0) vs Anthony Hamilton (13-3-0)

  • Todd Duffee $1.37 (76%, 16 Votes)
  • Anthony Hamilton $3.46 (24%, 5 Votes)

Total Voters: 21

Who will win this UFC Fight? Kamikaze Overdrive MMA Predictions
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6 Responses to “UFC Fight for the Troops 3- Prelim Predictions”

  1. […] >>>>UFC on FX 5: Browne vs Bigfoot Preliminary Predictions<<<< […]

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  3. mike says:

    wheres the rest of them?

  4. Nick says:

    You’re picking Santos? =) Alcantara is -530 right now.

  5. MMApicker says:

    You really picked Wisniewski with a layoff, injury, and travel to brazil? Mannnn…dunno about that pick, especially if ur just banking off his exp.

    • scottiej86 says:

      I 100% understand where you are coming from, but Jorge is making his UFC debut, on short notice, in a division up from where he usually competes in, with minimal experience against top level comp (not knocking Jungle Fights), and he has really faced an American style fighter with a wrestling background. All major red flags as well.

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