UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson Prelim Predictions

170lbs- Jake Shields (27-6-1) vs. Tyron Woodley (11-1-0)

What have they done recently?

Shields- 1 win in last 4 fights after last fight was ruled a No Contest

Woodley- won UFC debut after first career loss

Key Victories

Shields- Martin Kampmann- Split Dec, Dan Henderson- Dec,  Carlos Condit- Dec,  Mike Pyle- Sub

Woodley- Tarec Saffiedine- Dec, Paul Daley- Dec, Jordan Mein- Split Dec, Jay Hieron- KO

Key Defeats

Shields- Georges St-Pierre- Dec, Jake Ellenberger- TKO

Woodley- Nate Marquardt- KO

Physical Comparison

Shields- 3″ height advantage

Woodley- 1″ reach

Strengths

Shields- BJJ Black belt, NCAA D-1 wrestler, submissions (10 wins), takedowns (3.57 @ 38%), size, chin (2 KOs in 35 fights)

Woodley- NCAA D-1 wrestler, BJJ Purple belt, takedowns (2.53 @ 42%), TDD (88%), improving striking, submissions (5 wins), physical strength

Weaknesses

Shields- striking, cardio, 11 month layoff

Woodley- cardio, striking defense

Key(s) to Victory

Shields- Jake needs to close the distance quickly and clinch, control Woodley on the cage, and then drag the fight to the ground.

Woodley- Tyron needs to use his striking advantage, maintain separation and land with power. Avoid his instinct to use his wrestling until Shields starts to gas or Tyron has clearly won two rounds.

Prediction

Jake Shields is coming off of a near 12 month layoff and is returning to Welterweight for the first time since early 2012. Ring rust could be an issues, but Shields isn’t a speed/timing based fighter so this might not be as big a deal as it is for other guys. Additionally, his cardio isn’t great, but neither is Woodley’s who has shown on multiple occasions that he will start to slow down when pushed. Both guys are wrestlers, but Woodley will need to avoid his instinct to grapple and instead work his striking. Woodley’s stand up has been improving and he should have an advantage over Shields who tends to be very stiff on the feet. He needs to maintain distance, land with power, and avoid letting Jake tie up with him. Shields was knocked out by Jake Ellenberger, but overall he has only been KOed twice in his career and he has survived a Dan Henderson H-bomb, so Woodley could be hard-pressed to score another quick KO. Overall, Woodley is more known for his grinding top game then the blistering knockout power he showed in his debut. Even if he has an advantage on the feet, deviating from his regular game plan will take Woodley out of his comfort zone and lead to opportunities for Shields to capitalize on. When under attack, Woodley does have a habit of putting his own back on the cage and allowing his opponent to close the distance, especially when he starts to get tired. If Shields can initiate the clinch he should be able to get this fight to the mat with regularity and his size and smothering top game will be too much for Woodley. Shields doesn’t fight a pretty fight, but he will put Woodley on his back for long durations of the bout so my prediction is Jake Shields to defeat Tyron Woodley by decision.

185lbs- Andrew Craig (8-1-0) vs. Chris Leben (22-9-0) Andrew Craig Chris Leben View Results  Loading ...

155lbs- James Krause (19-4-0) vs. Sam Stout (20-8-1)

What have they done recently?

Krause- 7 fight winning streak

Stout- alternated wins and losses over last 5, coming off a win

Key Victories

Krause- Anthony Smith- Sub, Michael Johnson- Sub, Toby Imada- Dec

Stout- Spencer Fisher- Dec x2, Joe Lauzon- Dec, Matt Wiman- Dec

Key Defeats

Krause- Donald Cerrone- Sub, Ricardo Lamas- Dec, Toby Imada- Sub

Stout- Kenny Florian- Sub, Jeremy Stephens- Split Dec, John Makdessi- Dec

Physical Comparison

Krause- 5″ height and 5″ reach advantage

Strengths

Krause- ground game, submissions (12 wins), offensive guard, sweeps/ reversals, knockout power (5 wins), height/ reach, long straight punches, variety of kicks (head)

Stout- technical striking, SLpM (4.18), combinations, knockout power (9 wins, 1 UFC), body shots, chin, TDD (77%), UFC experience (16th fight), improving wrestling, conditioning, fighting at home

Weaknesses

Krause- takedown defense, power wrestling, UFC debut, short notice replacement

Stout- ability to change gameplan, predictability, lack of UFC finishing ability

Key(s) to Victory

Krause- James needs to keep Stout at end of his reach with his jab and kicking game, don’t allow Stout to outland him and threaten with his grappling attack to score points and keep Stout from settling in.

Stout- Sammy needs to get inside Krause’s long reach, outwork his opponent and target the body with a high v0lume of punches while being mindful of the takedown attempts.

Prediction

Krause’s height and reach will present an interesting front that Stout is going to have to navigate through. He is a calculated and deliberate striker that will switch stances and has a variety of tools to call upon. He has a solid jab and a strong kicking arsenal, highlighted by a fight ending high kick. What Stout brings to the cage is a known commodity. He is a solid striker that will fire off 3 and 4 punch combos, sometimes ending with a low kick and he will also attack the body with a vicious liver shot. While Stout has had a lot of success with his style, he has become a little bit predictable, which has forced him to make some adjustments to his game. He has started to incorporate more grappling into his attack which he used effectively against both Spencer Fisher and Caros Fodor. While he is evolving, he still has much to work on the mat and Krause is a dangerous grappler with 12 wins by submission. He has excellent sweeps and reversals along with his submissions and Stout would be making a mistake to try and take this fight to the ground. Krause doesn’t attempt a lot of takedowns and Stout has great TDD, but if the former WEC competitor can threaten with a few takedowns it should keep Stout from being too aggressive on the feet. Stout has relied on his newly improved grappling to help him win some close fight and in his loss to John Makdessi he wasn’t able score points with his grappling which cost him the fight and that should be the case here. Additionally, he had a lot of trouble with Makdessi’s jab and was unable to land with regularity. If Krause can maintain a deliberate pace, dictate the range, and counter Stout as he comes forward it will take away the Canadian’s biggest weapon- his work rate. Stout has made a career out of winning close fights, but the physical advantages, diversity of attack, and more well-rounded game of Krause, especially his ground game, will be the deciding factor in this fight so my prediction is James Krause to defeat Sam Stout by decision.

155lbs- Norman Parke (17-2-0) vs. Kazuki Tokudome (12-3-1) Norman Parke Kazuki Tokudome View Results  Loading ...

170lbs- Sean Pierson (13-6-0) vs. Kenny Robertson (12-2-0)

What have they done recently?

Pierson- back to back wins after back to back losses

Robertson- 2-2 over his last 4

Key Victories

Pierson- Lance Benoist- Dec,  Jake Hecht- Dec, Matthew Riddle- Dec

Robertson- Lucio Linhares- KO, Brock Jardine- Sub

Key Defeats

Pierson- Kim Dong-Hyun- Dec, Jake Ellenberger- KO, Jesse Bongfeldt- TKO

Robertson- Mike Pierce-TKO, Aaron Simpson- Dec

Physical Comparison

Pierson- 2″ height and 2″ advantage

Strengths

Pierson- grappling, Greco Roman wrestling, BJJ Brown belt, knockout power (6 wins), SLpM (4.18), striking defence (68%), TDD (60%)

Robertson- NCAA Div-1 wrestler, knockout power (6 wins), submissions (5 wins), striking accuracy (51%), durability, TDD (56%), clinch work

Weaknesses

Pierson- cardio, takedowns (0.48 @ 20%), chin (3 knockouts), age (37), 9 month layoff

Robertson- wrestlers (Simpson & Pierce), takedowns (0.64 @ 14%)

Key(s) to Victory

Pierson- Sean needs to put Robertson in some tough positions along the wall and on the ground . Make sure he spends a lot of time in top position and try to pace himself for a full 3 round battle.

Robertson- Kenny’s key to winning this fight is to push the pace, be aggressive with his striking, use the clinch to damage Pierson and really try tax his cardio.

Prediction

Pierson is returning to action after a fairly long layoff and for a Welterweight he is getting up there in age at 37. This could result in a slow start due to the ring rust that comes along with being away for this length of time. He is a gritty wrestling brawler type fighter which he has executed fairly effectively in some of his fights. For Robertson, he didn’t produced much of anything in his first two bouts, but he made up for that with a pretty impressive and unique submission win in most recent appearance. Robertson is a D-1 level wrestler with a decent submission game and serviceable striking. He is a little bit more refined with his stand up then Pierson, with one of his bigger weapons being the Thai clinch. If Robertson can lock it up, he does a pretty decent job of landing his knee strikes. Robertson is going to look to outwork Pierson using head movement and footwork, while trying to set up the grappling exchanges on his terms. Pierson on the other hand needs to make this fight ugly, get in Robertson’s face and try to reproduce a similar style fight to the Robertson/ Simpson contest. The biggest concerns for Pierson, besides the potential ring rust, are his cardio and durability. He has a tendency to fade in fights and his chin/ ability to take damage isn’t the greatest. What this means is that while his style might be to brawl and grind out his opponent, it can be difficult for him to do for a full 3 rounds. A trend that we have seen with him against Jake Hecht, Lance Benoist and Matt Riddle is a strong start where he gets a couple rounds in his favour and then a slow finish where he is just hanging on. While this has worked in the past, the combination of ring rust and his progressing age suggest that he might not be able to get off to as good a start in this fight and if/when he starts to fade it will cost him. Robertson does have power and his wrestling should be good enough to shutdown and maybe even overwhelm Pierson so my prediction is Kenny Robertson to defeat Sean Pierson by TKO.

155lbs- Edson Barboza (11-1-0) vs. Rafaello Oliveira (15-5-0) Edson Barboza Rafaello Oliveira View Results  Loading ...

135lbs- Roland Delorme (8-1-0 1NC) vs. Edwin Figueroa (9-2-0)

What have they done recently?

Delorme- 2 fight winning streak snapped in last fight, but loss was ruled a No Contest

Figueroa- 2 fight winning streak snapped in last fight

Key Victories

Delorme- Josh Ferguson- Sub, Nick Denis- Sub

Figueroa- Johnny Bedford- TKO, Jason Reinhardt- TKO, Alex Caceres- Split Dec

Key Defeats

Delorme- Eric Wilson- Split Dec, Francisco Rivera- No Contes

Figueroa- Michael McDonald- Dec, Francisco Rivera- TKO

Physical Comparison

Delorme- 2″ height and 2″ reach advantage

Strengths

Delorme- grappling, submissions (6 wins), takedowns (2.29 @ 27%), transitions, improving striking, SLpM (3.97), durability, hometown advantage

Figueroa- knockout power (6 wins), boxing/ kickboxing, combinations, kicking game

Weaknesses

Delorme- SApM (5.59), striking defense, lack of striking variety

Figueroa- SLpM (2.94) vs SApM (3.5), range management, cardio, wild striking, grappling defense

Key(s) to Victory

Delorme- Roland needs to walk through the striking of his opponent, drag him to the ground and chain his submission attempts together until one works.

Figueroa- Edwin needs to defend the TDAs, land his leg kicks in combination with his hands, and hurt/ finish Delorme when the opportunity presents itself.

Prediction

For the most part this is the typical striker versus grappler fight. Figueroa wants to remain standing and implement his kickboxing and Delorme will be trying to take it to the ground and look for submissions. Delorme’s striking is improving and he should be able to compete on the feet based on the combination of his reach, straight punches, and overall toughness, but he needs to go to the ground as soon and often as possible. Figueroa has power and is a decent overall striker, but he tends to get wild especially when trying to cover distance as was the case against Alex Caceres. When he opens up to attack this should afford the Canadian plenty of opportunities to take the fight to the ground. Edwin has never been submitted, but he has had plenty of issues with his opponents ground attack. Caceres dominated him on the ground attempting multiple submissions, Michael McDonald landed 5 takedowns, and even infamous Jason Reinhardt was able to take his back. Delorme is a decent grappler with 6 submission wins overall and 2 in the UFC. Look for him to bring pressure on the feet and then quickly change levels to shoot. He stood and trade with Rivera which ultimately cost him the fight and that should serve as a learning experience. Figueroa has faded in higher paced fights before and the aggressive style of Delorme should push his cardio, especially when the fight hits the ground. Figueroa has shown good submission defense in the past, but fending off sub attempts is still losing the fight in most judge’s eyes so my prediction is Roland Delorme to defeat Edwin Figueroa by decision.

265lbs- Gabriel Gonzaga (14-7-0) vs. Dave Herman (21-5-0) Gabriel Gonzaga Dave Herman View Results  Loading ...

170lbs- Mitch Clarke (9-2-0) vs. John Maguire (18-5-0)

What have they done recently?

Maguire- back to back defeats after 7 straight wins

Clarke- back to back defeats after 9 straight wins to start his career

Key Victories

Maguire- DaMarques Johnson- Sub, Justin Edwards- Dec,

Clarke- Eddie Rincon- Dec, Josh Machan- Sub

Key Defeats

Maguire- John Hathaway- Dec, Matthew Riddle- Dec, Tom Watson- TKO

Clarke- John Cholish- TKO, Anton Kuivanen Split Dec

Physical Comparison

Maguire- coming down from Welterweight

Clarke- 1″ height and 4″ reach advantage

Strengths

Maguire- BJJ Brown belt, grappling, submissions (10 wins), takedowns (2.74 @ 48%), transitions, size, scrambles, TDD (75%)

Clarke- grappling, wrestling, submissions (6 wins), transitions, scrambles

Weaknesses

Maguire-  striking, first cut to 155, speed

Clarke- experience (11 fights), striking, conditioning, elite level success, 11 month layoff

Key(s) to Victory

Maguire- John needs to work is own special brand of BJJ, dominate the grappling exchanges with his size, while making sure to maintain top control and take advantage of any and all  submission opportunities.

Clarke- Mitch needs to find some success with his striking and when the fight does go to the ground make sure to maintain control of his opponent to avoid getting reversed or submitted. Clarke’s cardio needs to be up to par in the hopes that the weight cut takes a toll on Maguire so that he can steal the fight late.

Prediction

This is a matchup of grapplers; the Brit boasting a BJJ heavy attack and the Canuck is more of a wrestler. Both guys have experience inside the Octagon, but Maguire has by far been the more successful with his exploits holding a 2-2 record against Clarke’s 0-2 mark. Clarke is coming off of a lengthy 11 month break between fights where he most certainly took his game back to the drawing board, but he will also suffer from some ring rust as a result. Maguire comes into this bout dropping to 155 for the first time in his Zuffa career having fought mainly at Welterweight. He was clearly undersized at 170 pounds and when he ran into a pair of larger men that completely shutdown his offense that was a clear indication to start his cut to 155. This fight is going to come down to who is the better grappler and so far all indications are pointing towards Maguire. He has more experience both in quantity and quality, along with a size advantage, and his technique. Clarke was dominated by John Cholish, but more significantly he lost a ground based decision to Anton Kuivanen who is far from a top level grappler. Clarke started off strong landing 3 takedowns in the first half of the fight but faded in the second half going 0 for 4 while Kuivanen went a perfect 3 for 3. Clarke’s slowdown can be attributed to having to deal with a much larger man and that should once again be the case against Maguire. If the Brit’s cut goes well, (it should considering he looked like he had room to drop the appropriate poundage) he will have a size advantage and this should result in Clarke slowing down as the fight progresses. Clarke has yet to show he has the chops to beat a UFC calibre opponent (even worse, neither of the men he lost to are still with the UFC) and in the one area where he is strongest his opponent is better so my prediction is John Maguire to defeat Mitch Clarke by submission.

170lbs- Seth Baczynski (17-7-0) vs. Brian Melancon (6-2-0) Seth Baczynski Brian Melancon View Results  Loading ...

135lbs- Yves Jabouin (18-8-0) vs. Dustin Pague (11-8-0)

What have they done recently?

Jabouin- 3 fight winning streak snapped in last fight

Pague- back to back losses, 1 win in his last 4 fights

Key Victories

Jabouin- Ian Loveland- Split Dec, Walel Watson- Split Dec, Jeff Hougland- Dec

Pague- Jared Papazian- Sub

Key Defeats

Jabouin- Brad Pickett- KO, Pablo Garza- Sub, Mark Hominick- TKO, Raphael Assuncao- Split Dec

Pague- John Albert- TKO, Ken Stone- Split Dec, Chico Camus- Dec

Physical Comparison

Pague- 3″ height and 6.5″ reach advantage

Strengths

Jabouin- striking, speed, combinations, knockout power (11 wins), kicking game, SLpM (3.16), Striking Defense (65%), TDD (80%), improving wrestling

Pague- Submissions 8 wins, height/ reach advantage, improving striking

Weaknesses

Jabouin- submission defense (3 losses), chin (3 KO losses), cardio

Pague- durability/ chin (3 losses by KO), takedowns (0.87 @ 33%), SApM (3.57)

Key(s) to Victory

Jabouin- Yves needs to use his kick to help him with the distance, but also get inside to land his combinations while defending against Pauge’s attempts to drag him to the ground.

Pague- For Dustin his reach is important to keep Jabouin out of range and he needs to get this fight to the ground in an offensive position to attack with his submissions.

Prediction

Yves has been on a significant roll since dropping to 135. He had won 3 straight fights and was holding his own early against Brad Pickett before ‘One Punch’ landed one punch and change the course of the bout. Conversely, Pague has dropped 3 of his 4 UFC bouts and is most likely fighting for his UFC career. Jabouin is the superior striker and despite the significant disparity in height and reach he should have no problem overcoming the distance. Against the much taller Pablo Garza he was finding success cutting down the range with his kicking arsenal and he should do more of the same here as Dustin’s distance management isn’t that strong. Pague’s striking is serviceable, but he needs to keep the time spent on the feet to a minimum and get this fight to the ground as soon as possible. His sole UFC win came by rear naked choke and overall he has secured 8 of his 11 wins by submission. On the ground he knows how to utilize his above average length to tie up his opponent and attack with submissions. The shortcoming in Pague’s grappling assault is his below average takedown game. He completes just under 1 takedown per fight at a paltry 33%. He mainly relies on his opponent to take the fight to the ground and then looks to attack. Unfortunately, as was the case against Chico Camus, if his opponent can defend his submissions Dustin is stuck on his back and in the eyes of most judges he is losing the fight. Yves has been submitted a trio of times, but his defensive grappling has made significant strides of late defending 16 of the last 20 takedown attempts. The combination of Jabouin’s defensive improvements and Pague’s poor offensive wrestling makes it unlikely, not impossible, but unlikely that Pague will be able to mount much of a grappling based assault. Instead, similar to the Jeff Hougland fight, look for Jabouin to unload with a barrage of heavy combinations and a variety of leg kicks (both straight and spinning) while his opponent wilts under the mounting damage endured. Yves advantages in both quantity and quality of strike will be the difference and although he doesn’t have a stoppage win since 2008 Pague has been stopped KO/TKOed 3 times in his career so my prediction is Yves Jabouin to defeat Dustin Pague by TKO. 

170lbs- David Mitchell (12-2-0) vs. Mike Pierce (16-5-0) David Mitchell Mike Pierce View Results  Loading ...

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