Kamikaze Overdrive $10 Betting Pack


Parlay Header

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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Roy Nelson -129 
Selection 2: Alan Jouban -111 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Mike Pyle -110 
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Price: +544  Bet: 10 units
Payout: 54.42 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Pedro Munhoz -189 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 2: Felipe Arantes -162 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Gilbert Burns -189 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Anthony Birchak/Dileno Lopes Total Rounds Under 2.5 +170 
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Price: +921  x Bet: 8 units
Payout: 73.68 units
 
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Reginaldo Vieira -133 
Selection 2: John Makdessi -118 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 3: Gilbert Burns/Lukasz Sajewski Total Rounds Under 2.5 +150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Derrick Lewis/Roy Nelson Total Rounds Over 1.5 +155 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Price: +1963  x Bet: 6 units
Payout: 117.8 units
 
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Parlay #1
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Selection 1: Rafael Dos Anjos Wins by TKO/KO/DQ +155 
Selection 2: Alan Jouban/Belal Muhammad Total Rounds Under 2.5 +140 
Selection 3: Joseph Duffy to Win Inside the Distance -120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Selection 4: Mike Pyle -110 
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Price: +2042  x Bet: 7 units
Payout: 142.94 units

Draftkings Line up

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Kamikaze
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Fighter 1: Alan Jouban $10000 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Mike Pyle $9900 
Fighter 3: Anthony Birchak $10700 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 4: Mehdi Baghdad $8900 
Fighter 5: Pedro Munhoz $10400 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining:
 
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Overdrive
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Fighter 1: Eddie Alvarez $8600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 2: Roy Nelson $9800 
Fighter 3: Mike Pyle $9900 
Fighter 4: Felipe Arantes $10600 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
Fighter 5: Vicente Luque $10900 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med
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Salary Remaining: 
 
 
 

Eddie Alvarez +319 vs Rafael Dos Anjos -353 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

With so many fights to predict and so little time, I will be getting straight to the point with each fight. I won’t be playing a side here, simply no value in RDA and I don’t feel Eddie is worth the reach. I might look at a prop bet though.

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Despite picking against Alvarez, he is going to be in my fantasy lineup. This card made it hard to put together solid lineups without going against a prediction or 2. Alvarez is in a 5 round fight and while I don’t see him winning, he will lands some strikes and might find some success with early takedowns. The money makes other fighters affordable. I’m looking for 30-45 points here if he doesn’t shock the world. Team Overdrive.

 

Derrick Lewis +120 vs Roy Nelson -129 

I like this fight and I really like a prop bet here, but I will talk about this later. Nelson is a much better striker and his durability should be enough to get him in range to hurt Lewis. Lewis’s chin is a little shaky and so is his TDD. Nelson is a very smart fighter and will look to exploit this. I can’t see Lewis getting him down and unless he sneaks something in, Nelson will see his vertical offense coming. Nelson makes the cut as part of my Gold parlay!

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‘Big Country’ also joins Team Overdrive. We are well aware of his finishing skills and Lewis has been stopped twice in the UFC. If this fight goes longer, we could see Roy pick up some points with takedowns. Clearly, a decision diminishes his scoring power, but at $9800 he frees up a couple extra bucks to spend elsewhere.

 

Alan Jouban -111 vs Belal Muhammad +108 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I was impressed with what I saw out of Muhammad, but I feel Jouban is a bad stylistic matchup for him. Belal likes to keep the fight at range and pick away at his opponent. Jouban is a much more pressure oriented, higher paced striker. He thrives on the inside and can do some serious damage in the clinch. I expect to see Jouban forcing Muhammad to compete in a type of fight that he isn’t accustomed to. The short notice for Belal won’t help either in a higher intensity fight than what he is used to. I expected to see Jouban as a bigger fav so he gets the nod here in my Gold parlay.

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Jouban has finished his opponent in 3 of his 4 UFC wins and 10 of 14 overall. His style will put him in position for another finish or possibly a high volume score based on his short range striking. Takedowns are also an option. A full camp favourite with a history of scoring finishes at $10000 is a must play. Team Kamikaze.

Joseph Duffy -333 vs Mitch Clarke +319 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No Play on a side, possible prop bet though. A gap in Duffy’s defense was exposed against Poirier and while I don’t see Clarke capitalizing, it’s not worth the risk.

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A finish is a serious possibility, but at $11100 you had better have a couple of heavy dogs that you see coming through to help fill out the rest of your card.

Alberto Mina +103 vs Mike Pyle -110 

Is it just me or is anyone else not impressed with Mina. He gassed horribly in his debut, looked sloppy against Akiyama, and even in his pre-UFC footage he didn’t look that great. Most people are pointing at Pyle’s age, 41, which is a legit concern, but I don’t think that will be a factor here. Pyle chin is the biggest vulnerability, but does Mina have the skills to find it? He is far from the caliber of opposition that has been able to stop Pyle in the past. Additionally, he slows down pretty quick and Pyle brings the type of approach that will wear him out. I see Pyle getting the stoppage here or at the very least battering Mina for a full 3-rounds. Love the line! Gold Parlay.

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Considering how much I like the line here, I also am invested in playing Pyle in my lineups. That’s plural. As in both. Pyle has stopped his opponent in 6 of his last 7 wins- 3 in the opening round. For his pair of 3rd round finishes, he put up some decent striking totals and score a handful of takedowns. He can score points and is sub $10000. Sign him up.

John Makdessi -118 vs Mehdi Baghdad +113 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Makdessi has been a frustrating fighter. He has lost a couple of fights where he did enough to win, should have won, but he didn’t. He keeps fights closer than they should be. His offense is there, he negates his opponents’ grappling when needed, yet his style doesn’t translate well with the judges. This is probably it for him if he can’t win this fight. Baghdad is very hittable and will exchange with Makdessi. He strikes wide and comes forward which will magnify the effectiveness of the Canadian’s more compact offense. Baghdad has been stopped twice so his chin isn’t ironclad. Still with Makdessi’s history, he could fall to a Bronze parlay if I find a better alternative in the Silver section.

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No play here on Makdessi. He is affordable, but Mak isn’t an overwhelming volume striker and if the decision goes the wrong way that would be catastrophic for your bottom line. His lack of recent finishes makes him easy to pass over. On the flip side, with the possibility that Baghdad could steal a decision win, I am using him to plug the hole in my lineup where the budget gets too tight to use any of my picks. He has a decent finishing rate and he is aggressive. If he opts to go the grappling route he could score some points on the mat. He is not an ideal pick, but we have to make the best of what is available. Team Kamikaze.

Anthony Birchak -241 vs Dileno Lopes +221 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Up next is another straight up NP, at least on the side- we have a lot of places to spend our money this week. I will definitely be looking at the total here.

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Birchak is a straight up Kamikaze Berzerker! He goes for it and goes for it hard. That is what you want in a Fantasy player. ‘El Toro’ has 10 finishes in 12 wins-6 in the opening round. He is the taller fighter taking a guy who should probably be competing at FLW. I expect him to look to drain his gas tank early by pushing Lopes hard. A finish, volume striking, and takedowns will all be there for scoring you some slick fantasy points. He is close to the upper end of how much I am willing to spend, but I think the results will be there. Team Kamikaze.

Russell Doane +201 vs Pedro Munhoz -189 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

I like both fighters, but there are concerns on both sides. With Doane, it is his Fight IQ. He makes bad decisions and loses fights as a result. With Munhoz, he was a straight killer prior to getting suspended for a substance violation. Is he the same fighter? I think he is, but he simply ran into a buzzsaw in Rivera after a prolonged layoff. Doane’s mistakes come back to haunt him on the mat and he does do enough against a superior striker to make up the difference when vertical. Munhoz is a Silver play.

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Munhoz knows how to finish and Doane’s willingness to engage on the mat will create openings for Pedro to look for his signature guillotine. If the fight is contested primarily on the feet, look for Munhoz to land between 50-75 significant strikes. At $10400, he is a solid add to team Kamikaze.

Felipe Arantes -162 vs Jerrod Sanders +150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

There are some pretty obvious stats here that suggest Sanders can pull the upset off here. He thrives on takedowns and Arantes gives them up a lot. Doan played directly into Sanders’s strength and refused to disengage on the mat despite have a wide advantage on the feet. I couldn’t pick Sanders here for a couple of reasons. His wrestling hasn’t impressed me that much and if Arantes play defense, I think he can keep the fight vertical. At the very least, he will find success attacking off his back and getting out of some bad spots. His striking advantage will be pretty wide and I don’t like the way Sanders reacts to getting hit. If Arantes starts unloading I foresee a finish materializing. The TD factor pushes this bout down to the Silver section.

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Arantes joins team Overdrive. He is not known for his finishing skills, but as he showed in the Pepey bout- he has the ability to put guys away. This should keep him from being at the top of most players lists. As mentioned above, Sanders doesn’t do well when under fire and Arantes should be able to capitalize for a finish.

Gilbert Burns -189 vs Lukasz Sajewski +216 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Burns got exposed in his win over Oliveira and Magomedov finished the job. He is a talented grappler, but against a fighter with decent TDD and a capable striking offense he is far from a sure thing. Sajewski isn’t quite there with his offensive output and his aggressive forward pressure will leave him open to getting taken down. Look for Burns to rebound here after a couple of tough performances. Burns falls to my Silver parlay.

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I considered him an option here as a finish could materialize, but I opted for other cheaper options.

Marco Beltran +158 vs Reginaldo Vieira -133 

Beltran has been pretty underwhelming in his 2 wins. He has struggled at times with his opponent’s grappling attack and Vieira is a better ground fighter than either man he has faced so far. The reach could be an issue, as Marco is getting better at keeping fighters on the outside. Although, his volume isn’t overwhelming when he does this and Vieira is pretty aggressive when closing the gap. I like RV to get on the inside, land strikes, back Beltran up, and attack on the mat. The odds are tempting to take a shot up the card, but the Brazilian falls to Bronze parlay.

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Alvaro Herrera +373 vs Vicente Luque -425 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

No side bet here, but I will look at the total.

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Herrera hasn’t shown me anything of too impressive, but Luque submission skills are pretty decent and should come into effect here. This fight will probably get overlooked by most as neither fighter has a high profile and at $10900, Luque isn’t cheap. With what we know about EPUs, a finish is likely. Luque rounds out Team Overdrive.

 

1. Rafael Dos Anjos -353 

2. Joseph Duffy -333 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

3. Mike Pyle -110 

4. Roy Nelson -129 

5. Vicente Luque -425 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

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6. Anthony Birchak -241 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

7. Alan Jouban -111 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

8. Gilbert Burns -189 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

9. Pedro Munhoz -189 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

10. Felipe Arantes -162 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

11. John Makdessi -118 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

12. Reginaldo Vieira -133 

1. Mike Pyle -110 

2. Anthony Birchak/Dileno Lopes Total Rounds Under 2.5 +170 

3. Roy Nelson -129 

4. Alan Jouban -111 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

5. Rafael Dos Anjos Wins by TKO/KO/DQ +155 

1. Mehdi Baghdad +150:  I can’t help but considering a play here the more I look this fight over. Makdessi has a lot of trouble distancing himself in close fights, this could be another one and hedge bet could alleviate some pain. I thought about backing Belal, but the price isn’t there.

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bETTING SCENARIOS

Exclusive Bet Pack Content.

Prop Bets

 

Rafael Dos Anjos Wins by TKO/KO/DQ +155 

Alvarez is durable, but he takes a lot of damage. Cerrone busted him up, Melendez hurt him early, and even Pettis tagged him with some big shots. RDA has knocked out 3 of his last 5 opponents and his aggressive style will play well against the scrappy but hittable challenger. We have seen Eddie get hurt before and RDA knows how to finish. Over 5 rounds, it will simply be too much for Eddie to take.

Derrick Lewis/Roy Nelson Total Rounds Over 1.5 +155 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Yes, you read that correctly, I am on the Over. Both guys could end this fight quickly- no questions asked. Over Nelson’s last 7-fights he has gone 3, 3, 1, 2, 3, 5, and 3 rounds. For you math magicians out there that’s 20 of a possible 23 rounds. That’s a lot for a guy known for knocking fighters out. The Beast is coming off of back to back 1st round finishes, but prior to that he had a pair of 2nd round fights and one 3rd rounder. Nelson’s last opponent struggled to close the gap for fear of Roy’s power, Lewis will suffer from something similar. Look for a sizeable feeling out period, with both fighters circling looking for their openings. If Roy takes him down and holds the position with success, this fight could easily go the distance.

Alan Jouban/Belal Muhammad Total Rounds Under 2.5 +140 

I am a little surprised that we are getting 2.5 rounds here. Jouban has finished 10 of his 13 wins-3 in the UFC and all 3 in the opening round. He has an aggressive clinch based attack and while Belal has looked good on the regional circuit- his success is built around his ability to keep his foe on the outside. On the flip side, Jouban has been hurt in multiple fights and finished twice. His chin is a bit of a question mark as well and he could very well walk into something when looking to close that gap. Take the Under.

Joseph Duffy to Win Inside the Distance -120 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

We are still looking at a negative number here, but it makes this fight far more appealing. Duffy has just 1 win by decision and has stopped his opponent in each of his last 4 wins. He has a slick submission game and will have a wide advantage on the feet. Clarke is durable to a point, but did get finished in his UFC debut. He was taking some damage in the Iaquinta fight as well before pulling a rabbit out of his…hat. Duffy returns motivated and improved against a sizeable step back in competition.

Alberto Mina/Mike Pyle 

See Betting Scenario Section.

Anthony Birchak/Dileno Lopes Total Rounds Under 2.5 +170 

We are getting 2.5 rounds at plus money? Where do I sign? Birchak is uber aggressive and either finishes or gets finished. He has gone the distance just twice in 15 fights, wrapping up the show 9-times in the opening round. Lopes is undersized, which will make it harder to deal with the pressure that Birchak brings. He also has 16 wins inside the distance and has only gone to the scorecards 3 times in 20 fights. This could be the steal of the week, hit it hard.

Gilbert Burns/Lukasz Sajewski Total Rounds Under 2.5 +150 12379140591570510706dholler_ok_svg_med

Burns finished the first 8 fights of his career in the first round before taking a step up in competition when he entered the UFC. He does have an opening round sub in the Octagon and tapped Oliveira late. Sajewski is a step down in competition compared to his recent opposition. Look for Burns to return to return to his dominant mat game, get the fight to the mat, and lock up choke or armbar in round 1 or 2. Play the Under.

Marco Beltran/ Reginaldo Vieira

See Betting Scenario Section.

Alvaro Herrera/Vicente Luque 

See Betting Scenario Section.

KAMIKAZE OVERDRIVE LOGO White

 

 

 

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