UFC 160: Velasquez vs Bigfoot 2

The UFC’s first pay-per-view in the month of May sees a bout for the heavyweight title, as champion Cain Velasquez faces Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva, a man he bloodied and beat almost a year ago. Featuring pivotal bouts in lightweight, light heavyweight and heavyweight, the UFC brings a stacked card on May 25^th, one that cannot be missed.

The heavyweight title is on the line as the two time champion Cain Velasquez squares off against elite Brazilian Antonio Silva, a bout that serves as a rematch to their UFC 146 encounter in May 2012. On that night Velasquez emerged as a man possessed, bloodying his foe with brutal ground and pound, en route to a first route stoppage. The signature win propelled him to a rematch with Junior Dos Santos this past December, a title fight in which Velasquez dominated and regained his title. Silva however racked up two of the biggest wins of his career; stopping Travis Browne in September and coming from behind to knock out Alistair Overeem at UFC 156 on Super Bowl weekend. With the challenger fighting some of the best bouts of his career Velasquez will have to be in vintage form to turn back the Brazilian powerhouse. Will the champion again put down a monumental beating on “Bigfoot”? Or will Silva upset the critcs once again, notching the biggest win of his career. Find out this Saturday.

In the co-main event, former heavyweight champ Junior Dos Santos takes on the resurgent Cinderella man, Mark Hunt. Dos Santos has not fought since losing his title to Velasquez this past December, a match in which he was thoroughly beaten, the first time he has been dominated in his career. Hunt however has emerged from novelty nostalgia act to a viable heavyweight contender, with four straight wins including knockouts over Cheick Kongo and Stefan Struve. Hunt struggled to stay above .500 in his MMA career, but with the recent renaissance and a striking power second to none, Hunt could amaze detractors by knocking off the former champion, undoubtedly becoming the top contender to the title. Will Dos Santos take a huge step back towards regaining his title, or will Hunt add another page to his storybook comeback by stopping one of the greatest heavyweights of our time.

Rounding out the main card are two important lightweight bouts as well as a monster fight at light heavyweight. TJ Grant and Gray Maynard face off in a bout that will determine the next top contender to Ben Henderson’s title. Grant has been perfect since dropping from 170, compiling wins against Shane Roller, Carlo Prater, Evan Dunham and a stunning knockout of Matt Wiman. Maynard has not fought since a decision victory over Clay Guida, and no looks to take a step towards his third title fight in recent bouts. Light heavywights Glover Teixeira and James Te–Huna face off; Teixeira is a perfect 3-0 in the octagon, most recently earning the biggest victory of his career against Rampage Jackson, while Te-Huna has won four straight wins and 5 of 6 in the UFC. Opening up the main card is a surefire slugfest against exciting lightweights Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone and KJ Noons.

The prelims feature a number of notables and intriguing matchups, as seasoned welterweights Mike Pyle and Rick Story square off; Ultimate fighter winners Colton Smith and Robert Whittaker meet; a fight of the night candidate between Dennis Bermudez and Max Holloway as well as a lightweight tilt between dynamic Khabib Nurmagomedov and Abel Trujillo. Brian Bowles, Jeremy Stephens and Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson are also in action on the untelevised prelims.

The UFC 160 features one of the strongest cards of 2013, as top contenders will be made, prospects will emerge as legitimate forces, and a champion will seek to establish his dominance in a stacked division. Don’t miss the UFC this Saturday May 25^th.

Main Card
265lbs- Cain Velasquez (C) vs. Antonio Silva
265lbs- Junior dos Santos vs. Mark Hunt
205lbs- James Te Huna vs. Glover Teixeira
155lbs- T.J. Grant vs. Gray Maynard
155lbs- Donald Cerrone vs. KJ Noons

Preliminary Card
170lbs- Mike Pyle vs. Rick Story
145lbs- Dennis Bermudez vs. Max Holloway
170lbs- Colton Smith vs. Robert Whittaker
155lbs- Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Abel Trujillo
170lbs- Nah-Shon Burrell vs. Stephen Thompson
135lbs- Brian Bowles vs. George Roop
145lbs- Estevan Payan vs. Jeremy Stephens

>>>>UFC 160 Prelim Predictions<<<<

The Brazilian crowd was pumping for UFC on FX 8 and it must have worked as the majority of Brazilian vs. the world matchups were won by Brazilians. There were several great finishes, but submission of the night went to Ronaldo Souza, knockout of the night went to Vitor Belfort and fight of the night went to the opening bout between Lucas Martins and Jeremy Larsen.  $50,000 each was given to those fighters who put on such outstanding performances.

Facebook Prelims

155 lbs. – Lucas Martins (0-1 UFC) vs. Jeremy Larsen (0-1 UFC) – Martins via TKO

Larsen was able to land huge overhand rights throughout the fight and the shots were clearly hurting Martins, but it was Martins who landed the finishing punches during an exchange early in round 3.

125 lbs. – Jussier Formiga (0-1 UFC) vs. Chris Cariaso (4-2 UFC) – Formiga via U. decision

Cariaso didn’t have an answer for the takedowns and grappling of Formiga as he spent almost the entire fight on his back and lost a unanimous decision.

125 lbs. – John Lineker (1-1 UFC) vs. Azamat Gashimov (0-1 UFC) – Lineker via TKO

Lineker was in control the entire fight with his striking and takedowns, but Gashimov showed heart by fighting back hard. Lineker finished Gashimov with a kick and punches to the body early in round 2.

Fuel TV Prelims

205 lbs. – Fabio Maldonado (1-3 UFC) vs. Roger Hollett (0-1 UFC) – Maldonado via U. decision

Hollet wasn’t able to get off his boxing against Maldonado and focused more on clinch control against the cage. It didn’t pay off as Maldonado defended well and still landed solid punches from everywhere.

135 lbs. – Yuri Alcantara (2-1-1 UFC) vs. Iliarde Santos (0-0 UFC) – Alcantara via TKO

Alcantara walked down Santos with hard strikes until he eventually connected on his chin with a straight left hand and finished him off the ground with more punches for a first round TKO.

170 lbs. – Paulo Thiago (4-5 UFC) vs. Michel Prazeres (0-0 UFC) – Thiago via U. decision

Prazeres came out strong by showing his grappling and kicking skills, but Thiago made sure he got his takedowns and stayed in top control for the next 2 rounds to win a unanimous decision.

155 lbs. – Gleison Tibau (11-7 UFC) vs. John Cholish (1-1 UFC) – Tibau via submission

Both fighters exchanged strikes early, but Tibau eventually took Cholish down and grinded him out until Cholish left his neck open and Tibau snatched it up for the guillotine choke submission in round 2.

155 lbs. – Francisco Trinaldo (2-1 UFC) vs. Mike Rio (1-0 UFC) – Trinaldo via submission

Trinaldo landed good punches early, but left himself open and got taken down. Rio didn’t do much after that as Trinaldo got back up, got his own takedown and worked for an arm-triangle choke in round 1.

145 lbs. – Hacran Dias (1-0 UFC) vs. Nik Lentz (7-2-1-1 UFC) – Lentz via U. decision

Dias did everything he could to sweep, submit or get back to his feet and strike, but it wasn’t enough as Lentz was able to overpower Dias on the ground and won a unanimous decision.

Main Card

185 lbs. – Rafael Natal (3-2-1 UFC) vs. Joao Zeferino (0-0 UFC) – Natal via U. decision

Zeferino did well in the first round with his striking, but faded in the later rounds as Natal was able to get takedowns and work from top control to win a decision.

155 lbs. – Rafael Dos Anjos (7-4 UFC) vs. Evan Dunham (7-3 UFC) – Dos Anjos via U. decision

Dunham did a great job of pushing the action, landing strikes and securing takedowns, but it still wasn’t enough to impress the judges as they gave Dos Anjos the win based on his very solid counter striking.

185 lbs. – Ronaldo Souza (0-0 UFC) vs. Chris Camozzi (6-2 UFC) – Souza via submission

Camozzi didn’t have an answer for the takedowns or grappling of Souza as he pretty much gave up his arm/neck and allowed Souza to lock in an arm triangle choke for a first round submission.

185 lbs. – Vitor Belfort (11-6 UFC) vs. Luke Rockhold (0-0 UFC) – Belfort via TKO

Belfort was very patient for the first couple of minutes and once he saw that Rockhold truly wasn’t on his level Belfort opened up with a spinning wheel kick to Rockholds face and finished him with strikes.

UFC on FX 8

*I have started to use some Props in my parlays, if your book doesn’t offer the prop or won’t allow them to be used in a parlay- use a pick from my confidence list.

Parlay Doubles

Parlay Triples

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Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Paulo Thiago $1.57 vs Michel Prazeres $2.40

Prazeres is undefeated and has a lot of momentum while Thiago is suffering through the worst stretch of his career with only one win in 5 fights. That being said, Paulo has been facing significantly better competition then Prazeres, but things like confidence and momentum can be a big factor in a figther’s performance. My take on this fight is to include Thiago in a parlay, but nothing too extensive. He should be the better overall fighter and win in most scenarios, but it is hard to put a large investment into a fighter that has had such difficulty winning of late. Again consider him as part of a parlay because in the $1.50 range he has an alright return for a UFC vet against a newcomer, but don’t commit too much coin.

Lucas Martins $1.40 vs Jeremy Larsen $2.90

In an effort to be more selective I have been putting more consideration into what fights to leave out and what fights to bet on. I am still a little bit on the fence here, but I am leaning towards not playing this fight. Larsen hasn’t fought in so long its hard to anticipate what we will see from him. Ring rust? New skills? Same old same old? It could be a mix of all of them. Martins looked out of place in his debut, but Larsen is a much more appropriate opponent at this stage of his career then Barboza was. With Martins hovering around the $1.40 mark I might consider using him in a parly, but if he drops any lower I will leave this fight off the bet cards all together.

Jussier Formiga $1.61 vs Chris Cariaso $2.25

Cariaso cost me in his last fight getting submitted after arguably winning the opening two rounds. Formiga was world ranked #1 at Flyweight before the UFC put their own division together. He didn’t have a lot to offer John Dodson in his debut, but Dodson is a tough guy that just finished pushing the champ to his limit. If Cariaso can keep this fight stand this is his fight to win, but his kick heavy game is a conern. He needs to pick his spots and not get reckless when attacking. I really like his experience to play a factor and he knows if he can negate the grappling of Jussier this is his fight to win. I would advocate an average sized singl bet of Mr. Kamikaze. His value on some sites is rising which makes him even more appealing. He could also be worked into parlays along side Vitor or Gashimov to make things even more interesting.

John Lineker $1.59 vs Azamat Gashimov $2.40

My trip through the preliminary upset picks continues on with Gashimov over Linker. Lineker is super entertaining and can pack one heck punch, but his ground work is a little bit questionable. He was going to war with Gaudinot until the fight hit the ground and he was eventually put to sleep. Gashimov is a Sambo guy which is a dangerous grappling style to have and to have to fend off. If the cut goes well for the Russian the combination of his size and skill will give Lineker all he can handle. I think the odds are a bit off here based on the lack of information regarding Gashimov. If you check out the footage of the guy that is available you will see he is a very capable ground fighter with good top control and smooth transitions. I suggested one of your larger single bets for Gashimov along with including him in a parlay or two. Gashimov/ Belfort would be an interesting combo. For Lineker his grappling defence raises too many questions for me to play him as the favourite.

Fabio Maldonado $1.40 vs Roger Hollett $2.92

This is another one of those fights where I intend to avoid almost entirely. Maldonado is the better striker which should carry the day but his fight IQ scares me. Here is a guy that on more then one occassions has invited his opponents to hit him. He waves them on as if he is partaking in some sort of tough mad competition instead of an MMA fight. His striking output is high, but so to is his opponent’s landing numbers which begs the questions- why are you asking for more? Hollett did’t impress in his debut, but stylistically Hamill’s wrestling was major factor that he had to be careful of. Hollett is a threat on the ground and if Fabio can’t keep this fight vertical he is going to be in trouble. There are so many what ifs and buts for this fight that my advice for is to just sit it out and move on to the next. It could be entertaining, but it could also be damaging to your betting health.

Yuri Alcantara $1.20 vs Iliarde Santos $4.77

I am already being questioned on this fight so lets get to it. Santos is a big dog no doubting that and my original lean on this fight was to Alcantara but the more and more I looked at Santos I felt he has the skills to steal a victory here. He is a decent grappler and that is what has given Yuri trouble in the past. He did look like a monster in his 135 debut, but that was against a natural Flyweight. Alcantara has the tools to win this fight, he is nasty on the ground and a very solid striker. If he can defend the takedowns or attack off his back effectively then Santos will be in trouble, but I think that Santos has the ability to overcome it. For betting purposes you can get a pretty good return on Iliarde with just an average sized single bet. If he were to win I think he would become my biggest upset passing Vaughan Lee over Kid. Another option would be to link Santos up with either Gashimov or Belfort, bet a little less again and still rake in the return on a win (if both cash). For Alcantara I would like to see him fight a full fight at 135 before I back him as this heavy of a favourite.

Gleison Tibau $1.43 vs John Cholish $2.70

This fight comes down to Tibau’s weight cut. If it goes well he wins, if not it will be much closer and Cholish could out hustle him for the victory. Tibau is a veteran and an expert at cutting weight. He has already said he tried to get down from too high in too short a time for the Dunham fight and that is what cost him. He has had more good cuts then bad and he should be able to make the needed adjustments. Cholish is a solid fighter but I don’t see any area where he can get the better of a non-drained Tibau. My suggestion here is to include Tibau on a parlay. He doesn’t offer a lot on his own but will still help boost yer payout while coming away with the W.

Francisco Trinaldo $1.33 vs Mike Rio $3.40

Rio didn’t impress me that much in his debut. He struggled on the feet against Cofer and was just strong enough on the mat to pull out a late submission win after arguably dropping the opening two rounds. Trinaldo is a handful for any fighter based on raw physical power and then add in a pretty solid skillset and I think Rio is going to struggle to get the job done here. If Rio can muster up some takedowns with consistency that is his best bet, but Trinaldo has decent TDD and does a nice job of punishing his opponent on the shot attempt. The big key to this fight for Francisco is going to be his left hand. He has a brutally powerful left and Rio was continually getting tagged by Cofer’s left in their fight. Rio was able to take that shot over and over again but Trinaldo’s power is something you don’t want to trifle with. The only drawback to this fight is the lack of value that Trinaldo has. I think he wins this fight fairly handily, but he should serve as nothing more then a compliment to your parlay betting. You could also consider adding him in with an underdog pick to bump up the return, but a single bet doesn’t make a lot of sense. For Rio, I would like to see him compete both at this level and with more regularity before I start backing him.

Hacran Dias $1.95 vs Nik Lentz $1.80

I think this is one of the best bets of the night. Lentz has looked like a beast so far at 145 and although Dias is coming off a big win, he has been out of action for quite a while now and facing a top level American wrestler for the first time can be a nightmare. Lentz was putting together a solid run at 155 and I think he has the capabilities of tasting top 5 status at 145, but this will be a huge test nonetheless. I think Lentz would work as one of if not your biggest single bet for the night. The only one I am considering above him for value is Belfort and that is because he pays better. Give Lentz a solid look for a big bet and then consider him as a cornerstone for your parlays. Of course don’t let him be on every bet card, but I think he adds a lot of value to your card. For Dias he looked good in his debut but it was against a man now fighting at 135 and he hasn’t fought in a long time. The Brazilian crowd can be a tough thing for a fighter, but I think Lentz should be able to work through that considering he is coming off a win over Diego Nunes in Brazil.

Joao Zeferino $3.40 vs Rafael Natal $1.33

I think I am going to leave this fight off the bet cards. Natal is a skilled fighter and we have lots of info on him, but Zeferino is a wild card. We have limited knowledge on this guy and with Natal paying so poorly it makes next to no sense to risk your money with limited knowledge for such a small return. I will be staying away.

Evan Dunham $2.35 vs Rafael dos Anjos $1.61

These odds are moving and they are moving in the right direction! I like RDA in this fight. He is the more refined striker and is ground game is equal to or better then Dunham’s. RDA is a fighter on the rise in the division and should be able to out strike Dunham in a similar fashion to what TJ Grant did. For the most part the grappling of both fighters should be nullified by the other’s superior TDD, but I still give RDA the edge. For betting this fight RDA, like Lentz above has some decent value. I think a parlay between Lentz and dos Anjos makes a lot of sense. A single belt on him also works, but because he is only paying in the low $1.60 range on most site, doubling him up with Lentz is probably the way to go. I also like the over here as I don’t really see either man putting the other away, but I will talk about that more in the props section.

Ronaldo Souza $1.20 vs Chris Camozzi $5.25

Betting this fight straight up makes no sense. Souza pays too poorly and I think that while Camozzi pays well, he doesn’t have the tools to take the win here. I give Camozzi 100% credit for stepping up to take this fight on short notice, but honestly Jacare is the type of guy that you really need a full training camp to prepare for. The ideal gameplan to beat Souza is to use a range based striking attack, moving in and out with limit close distance interaction and solid takedown defence to fall back on. Costa Philippou has a style similar to that, while Chris is more focussed on grinding out wins with his size. He showed in the Ring fight that speed can be an issue for him and I expect as long as this fight is on the feet, Souza will have that edge. The bet to make here is Souza by submission, to avoid repeating myself I will touch upon this in the props section.

Vitor Belfort $2.13 vs Luke Rockhold $1.79

Rockhold is getting a lot of credit for being the Strikeforce champion, but he has never faced someone like Vitor before. His biggest wins have come over Jacare and Tim Kennedy, who are both grappling based fighters. Many people are keying on the leg kicks of Rockhold as being a path to a win, but I think that Belfort will use his boxing to get inside of the kicking range and force Rockhold to trade with him in close. With Belfort’s power and superior set of hands this is going to be a pretty rough scenario for the SF champ. If the fight goes to the ground Belfort is much more dangerous then Rockhold, but Rockhold doesn’t need to attack on the mat just neutralize. The key to Rockhold winning this fight is to survive the first 2 rounds and wait for Belfort’s cardio to go. That could be easier said then done as that was Bisping’s game too and we all know how that turned out. This fight will determine one of two things- Is Rockhold a legit title threat? OR Is Belfort worthy of another shot at the strap? I think it is the latter and I am willing to bet is as such. Belfort is ranging right now between $1.87 and $2.20 depending on what site and what time you are looking at. I think at anything in that range or even slightly less he is worth one of your larger bets for the card. You could also make a solid pay day working him in with any number of the previously mentioned plays like dos Anjos, Lentz, Gashimov, or Chris Cariaso. If your book allows it Belfort and Souza by Submission also works. For Rockhold I need to see more. I wasn’t that impressed with him vs Kennedy and Kennedy really didn’t look all that good either. Against Jacare he got tagged a number of times and he can’t afford that against a much more talented and dangerous striker like Belfort. If he is to win this fight he needs to bring arguably his best all around performance.

Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Ronaldo Souza $1.20

2. Gleison Tibau $1.43

3. Rafael dos Anjos $1.61

4. Francisco Trinaldo $1.33

5. Nik Lentz $1.80

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6. Vitor Belfort $2.13

7. Azamat Gashimov $2.40

8. Rafael Natal $1.33

9. Chris Cariaso $2.25

10. Paulo Thiago $1.57

11. Lucas Martins $1.40

12. Fabio Maldonado

13. Iliarde Santos $4.77

-Purchase the $5 Bet Pack to get my rankings for the entire event + my non-predicted Top 5 Value Plays

Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

• Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
• I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Prop Bets-

Chris Cariaso/ Jussier Formiga Total Rounds Over 2.5- Cariaso is a decision machine and this play is predicated on him winning this fight as I think he will. If this bout ends early it will most likely be by a submission from Formiga and while it could happen I think Cariaso winning is more likely. Play the Over.

John Lineker/ Azamat Gashimov Total Rounds Under 2.5- Either Lineker wins this bout by knockout or Gashimov by submission and with Flyweights having a rep for not finishing fights we could see the odds here have a little added value. Play the Under.

Nik Lentz/ Hacran Dias Total Rounds Over 2.5- Lentz has earned a reputation for winning by decision and while he did get a stoppage victory in his debut, Dias will be a tough guy to put away. If Dias turns out to be the better man Lentz is also a very durable fighter and uber tough to finish. Play the Over.

Ronaldo Souza to Win by Submission $1.71- Playing Jacare straight up doesn’t offer much, but if you can take him to win this fight by submission at anything over $1.55 you’ve got a decent play worth making.

Rafael dos Anjos/ Evan Dunham Total Rounds Over 2.5- I don’t see either man finishing this fight and they have combined for 19 total decision wins. I like this play and it makes sense that the other play posted below works too.

Rafael dos Anjos to Win by Decision $2.13- Dunham is super tough and has only been finished once. Additionally, RDA has gone the distance 6 times in his career. With the amount of damage that RDA will pile up he will win a decision, but not get the finish.

Vitor Belfort to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $2.80- Lot’s of value here. I don’t see Vitor taking this by decision with his cardio issues, but the knockout is a far greater possibility, much better then the $2.80 would indicate.

The UFC has clearly found another home in the country that has produced some of its biggest stars as the Octagon returns to Brazil for UFC on FX 8. Vitor Belfort could be the second best Middleweight on the planet, next only to the man that defeated him via highlight real knockout back at UFC 126, Anderson Silva. In his last 10 fights the only two men to defeat Vitor have been the aforementioned Middleweight champ and the current UFC Light Heavyweight champion Jon Jones. Luke Rockhold, the last man to hold the Strikeforce 185 pound strap, will try to turn that duo into a trio win a win in the UFC on FX 8 main event. Rockhold’s last win came over Tim Kennedy in July of 2012 in his final Strikeforce appearance and now his bid to capture the UFC title begins with an incredibly stiff test. If Rockhold emerges victorious on Saturday night he could earn himself a shot at the gold, while a win or Belfort would further reinforce the belief that another shot at the title is warranted.

In the co-main event Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza, the man Rockhold took the Strikeforce strap from, makes his official UFC debut. In his final Strikeforce bout he handily submitted long time UFC veteran Ed Herman in a one-time crossover bout that gave Jacare a sound footing to begin his UFC career from. After an injury removed Costa Philippou from this bout, Chris Camozzi eagerly stepped up to accept the challenge of facing the dangerous Brazilian in his homeland. Camozzi is riding a 4 fight winning streak and a victory over the talented Souza would force the UFC matchmakers to seek out and provide the American battler with another top 10 opponent as he tries to procure his own shot at the top.

In the co-main event Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza, the man Rockhold took the Strikeforce strap from, makes his official UFC debut. In his final Strikeforce bout he handily submitted long time UFC veteran Ed Herman in a one-time crossover bout that gave Jacare a sound footing to begin his UFC career from. After an injury removed Costa Philippou from this bout, Chris Camozzi eagerly stepped up to accept the challenge of facing the dangerous Brazilian in his homeland. Camozzi is riding a 4 fight winning streak and a victory over the talented Souza would force the UFC matchmakers to seek out and provide the American battler with another top 10 opponent as he tries to procure his own shot at the top. Rounding out the main card will be a Middleweight bout between Rafael Natal and a late replacement for Chris Camozzi, Joao Zeferino.

The prelims include fights between Nik Lentz and Hacran Dias, Francisco Trinaldo and Mike Rio, Gleison Tibau and John Cholish and a Light Heavyweight bout between Fabio Maldonado and Roger Hollett with the UFC career of the loser clearly in doubt. Also on the undercard, a Bantamweight bout between Yuri Alcantara and Illiarde Santos and a pair of Flyweight fights featuring Jussier Formiga vs Chris Cariaso and John Lineker vs Azamat Gashimov will surely provide some fast pace action.

UFC on FX 8 is the next event in a long line of Spring/ Summer UFC cards that will be provide fun and exciting action for all MMA fans. Make sure you check back in here at Kamikazeoverdrive.net for all of your MMA prediction needs.

Main Card
185lbs- Vitor Belfort vs. Luke Rockhold
185lbs- Chris Camozzi vs. Ronaldo Souza
155lbs- Rafael dos Anjos vs. Evan Dunham
185lbs- Rafael Natal vs. Joao Zeferino

Preliminary Card
145lbs- Hacran Dias vs. Nik Lentz
155lbs- Mike Rio vs. Francisco Trinaldo
155lbs- John Cholish vs. Gleison Tibau
170lbs- Michel Prazeres vs. Paulo Thiago
135lbs- Yuri Alcantara vs. Iliarde Santos
205lbs- Roger Hollett vs. Fabio Maldonado
125lbs- Azamat Gashimov vs. John Lineker
125lbs- Chris Cariaso vs. Jussier Formiga
155lbs-Jeremy Larsen vs. Lucas Martins

>>>>UFC on FX 8 Prelim Predictions<<<<

Heavyweight 

Roy Nelson vs Alistair Overeem

Big Country has been linked to a potential fight with Daniel Cormier, but I think this fight makes a lot more sense for the former TUF champ. If Roy can blast his way through a Name fighter like Alistair it would almost certainly put him in line to contend for the title. Conversely, if Overeem can solve the Roy Nelson power punching riddle and even be the first to pick up a legitimate stoppage of the big man then he would regain a lot of the momentum he lost in his last fight and get right back in the mix for the title.

Travis Browne vs Frank Mir

Frank Mir is all but a gatekeeper now. A very talented gatekeeper, but he won’t be hanging with the big boys anytime soon. Travis Browne needs a win over a big name opponent to get himself in the title conversation and Frank Mir would be an excellent check point to see where the Hawaiian knockout artist ranks against the upper level of the division.

Light Heavyweight 

Phil Davis vs Ryan Bader

Both of these guys are stuck in a tough spot in the division. Davis was beaten soundly by Rashad Evans, who then came up very short against the champ and Bader was put away by pre-title Jon Jones in definitive fashion. If either one of these men are going to start convincing the UFC brass they are worthy of another push then they need to start beating next level competition and that is what this fight would represent. The winner moves up the ranks and the loser is forced to continue toil against lower ranked opposition.

Gegard Mousasi vs Forrest Griffin

Mousasi wasn’t impressive in his debut, but he was fighting hurt against a high risk/ low reward opponent. When he returns from injury he will need to continue to carve out his path to title contention and since LHW is and will be looking for new faces to challenge the champ I’ll keep him from dropping to 185. Griffin’s times is coming to an end, but a battle with Mousasi would be an excellent test for the former Strikeforce champ and provide Forrest with a fresh faced big name opponent to slug it out with.

Ovince St-Preux vs Gian Villante

This might not have been the most exciting fight, but the manner in which it finished requires a do over. The winner will gain momentum and move up the ranks while gaining a little name recognition.

Middleweight Division 

Michael Bisping vs Yushin Okami

Bisping is still a talented fighter and a shot at the title in his home country would bring in huge numbers and the UFC knows it. His recent loss to Vitor was far more significant then his win over Alan Belcher and he will need at least another win before he can be slotted into a title eliminator. Okami’s poor performance against Anderson will prevent him from ever challenging the Brazilian for the title again, but he, like Bisping is still quite relevant in the ranks. A battle between these two would give the winner a significant boost without knocking down another fighters on the rise.

Welterweight Division  

Tarec Saffiedine vs Martin Kampmann

Saffiedine was/is the Strikeforce champ but winning the title on the final show makes him a hard sell as a legit contender for the best 170 pound fighter on the planet. Saffiedine needs at least 2 big name wins inside the Octagon before his name can even be mentioned along side St-Pierre a win over Kampmann would go a long way to raise his stock. Stylistically this is a great fight and a veteran like the Hitman would certainly benefit from knocking off the Strikeforce Champ.

Lightweight Division  

Josh Thomson vs Evan Dunham/ Rafael Dos Anjos Winner 

Suddenly the Lightweight division is looking a little light at the top. Thomson looked great knocking off Nate, but his opponent choices are limited with him having already faced Gilbert and Pat Healy and other top ranked guys Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone coming off defeats. For the winner of Dunham/ dos Anjos Thomson is a big name opponent that would catapult them into the upper echelon if they could shut down the former Strikeforce champion. If Thomson emerged from this fantasy fracas with the W then he could be on the verge of a title shot of his own and not against Gilbert Melendez which would be a welcome change.

Jorge Masvidal vs Pat Healy

This fight was booked for the final Strikeforce card but was shutdown by an injury to Masvidal. This might actually serve as a step backwards for Bam Bam after his win over Miller, but it would provide him with another opportunity to showcase his skills against a worthy opponent and gain some more fan recognition. For Masvidal he is talented and looked better against Means then he did in his two previous performances, but he still needs to bring out that killer instinct inside and a scrap with Healy would do just that.

Featherweight Division  

Chad Mendes vs Clay Guida

Mendes has probably done enough to earn another shot at the title, but I would like to see him do a little more. The last thing I want to see happen is ‘Money’ derail another rising contender so let’s set him up against Mr. Guida. Clay is a well known fighter with a big name, but isn’t nearly as popular as he once was. These two were already temporarily locked into a fight, but injuries ended that oppurtunity. If Mendes ices Clay then it really doesn’t change the face of the division much and if Guida can pull this one out it could go along way to repairing his damaged image.

Conor McGregor vs Dennis Bermudez

Not a lot of people would be interested in guaranteeing the derailment of a young prospect by pairing two up together, but some must fall for others to rise. Both guys are exciting and would be an excellent curtain raiser for the main card of the upcoming Boston card. If Conor can get by a power wrestler like Bermudez he will answer a lot of questions and if Bermudez picks up the win here it is time for him to challenge a top 10 opponent.

Bantamweight Division  

Yuri Alcantara vs Takeya Mizugaki 

Two solid veteran fighters both trying to work themselves into relevancy in a division with two champions. The winner of this fight would get a major step up in their next bout and could add a fresh face to mix in with the Pickets, Eastons, Assuncaos, and Jorgensens of the division.

Flyweight Division

Louis Gaudinot vs Phil Harris

Gaudinot is an exciting fighter and could be a future title challenger with a few more wins. Harris picked up the biggest win of his career in his last fight and could continue his surge up the ranks with another win.

Women’s Bantamweight Division

Amanda Nunes vs Sara McMann

McMann looked impressive in her debut, but her performance was far from unexpected. If she expects to contend against the other Olympian in the division she will need to knock off a couple of the top girls in the division. Nunes is a tough competitor and could present some trouble for McMann. Either way if Sara emerges with the win she will have had to earn it and for Nunes adding an Olympic champ to her resume would be a huge boost to her future prospects.

Just a few ideas for future events, obviously some of these guys and gals are booked in with opponents and the outcomes of those bouts will change their positioning and future possibilities. Either way it is always fun to see if any of these fights were to materialize down the road. Personally, if I had to pick one bout that I would really like to see setup it would have to be the Bermudez/ McGregor scrap. I would never take credit should if materialize, but I as a fan it would be a sure fire FOTN candidate and a lot of fun.

The final UFC event in a busy April that saw the promotion host four straight fight cards saw the ending of the longstanding feud between light heavyweight champion Jon Jones and the enigmatic Chael Sonnen. The rest of the main card was composed of a number of intriguing scraps with serious title implications.

Kicking off the pay-per-view portion of the card was a fan-friendly scrap between longtime contender Jim Miller and Strikeforce mainstay Pat Healy. The opening round saw both men willing to engage on the feet. Once Miller got the fight to the mat Healy immediately shot for submissions, but Miller proved a crafty veteran, defending each attempt. A armbar attempt by Miller nearly closed the night early for Healy, but he rebounded and scored a takedown of his own in the dying moments of the round. Miller reveresd and landed a barrage of ground and pound that saw Healy visibly shaken heading to his corner. The second saw Healy go back to his roots, grinding down Miller with a methodical attack, scoring takedowns and threatening with a  rear naked choke, before closing the round with punches of his own. The third round would seemingly decide the fight in the eyes of the judges, but Healy saw to it that the scorecards would not be necessary. A knee to the midsection and subsequent takedown saw Healy again working for a rear naked choke, but this time Miller was not able to fight it off. Miller, showing heart and determination, refused to tap, but went briefly unconscious, promoting a referee stoppage and a submission win for Healy. Healy makes a successful UFC debut, positioning himself amongst the division’s elite, while Miller must go back to the drawing board with this recent loss.

A light heavyweight bout between Phil Davis and Vinny Magalhaes was the next fight to grace the octagon. Months of verbal sparring between the two ensured that the loser of this fight would suffer a blow to his ego aside from the loss on his record. This fight was all Davis, who managed to easily shrug off Magalhaes’s attempts to take the fight to the ground. Davis showed much improved standup, peppering his foe with a constant barrage of jabs and combinations. Magalhaes’s best moment came in the first when he came close to taking Davis’s back, but once the fight hit the feet Vinny seemed unable to deal with the size and speed of the all-American wrestler. All three judges scored the bout for Davis, who wins his second straight fight since a decision loss to Rashad Evans, while Magalhaes sees a six fight win streak come to an end.

Two heavyweights with serious knockout power squared off as Roy “Big Country” Nelson faced off against veteran Cheick Kongo. Given both men’s pension for standing and knocking out opponents it was widely believed this fight would not go the distance, and that one man would hit the canvas before long. It took little over two minutes but the popular vote held out. After a brief feeling out process and with Nelson backing up Kongo against the cage, “Big Country” uncorked a crushing right hand that put the lights out for the Frenchman. A follow up shot was unnecessary landed, as Kongo was out on the first shot, with the referee waving off the fight early in the first round. Nelson nears closer to the ever coveted title shot with his third straight knockout, adding to recent stoppages over Matt Mitrione and Dave Herman. Kongo goes back to square one after a decision victory over Shawn Jordan, with two of his last losses coming by knockout.

The co-main event featured two rival middleweights, as trash-talkers Michael “The Count” Bisping clashed with Alan “The Talent” Belcher. The two have been trading insults for the last two years, leading to a very real animosity on fight night. Over the course of three rounds Bisping battered Belcher on the feet, utilizing superior footwork and aptly timed combinations to pick apart his foe. Belcher never seemed to be able to find his rhythm, as Bisping was able to easily stump his takedown attempts and out strike the American in each round. In the third round Bisping inadvertently pokes Belcher in the eye, leaving him unable to see and bringing the contest to an abrupt end. The judges went to the scorecards for a technical decision due to the accidental foul, with all three seeing the contest the same, awarding the victory to “The Count” Michael Bisping. Bisping rights the ship following a knockout loss to Vitor Belfort, while Belcher loses his second straight decision to go with a December loss to Yushin Okami.

The main event of the evening featured one of the most anticipated matchups for the light heavyweight title in recent memory. Months of trash talk and verbal jousting made for a very intriguing title bout come fight night, with the champion visibly annoyed by the antics of the challenger. The consensus was that if Jon Jones could block out the mental barrage of Chael Sonnen and manage to solve his crafty, wrestling based attack, then it would be a long night for the self-made superstar. This proved to be the reality. The opening bell rang and within fifteen seconds Jones surprisingly shot in and took the challenger down. Once on the feet Jones initiated the clinch, enacting a smothering attack that mirrored that of Sonnen’s former fights, perhaps a deliberate insult to injury by the young champion. It wasn’t long before Jones got back to his roots and began to unleash a barrage of punches and elbows, bloodying the brash challenger. Once again planting his foe on the canvas, Jones reigned down with punches, knees and elbows, before the referee mercifully halted the bout in the final seconds of the first round. The bout wasn’t even remotely competitive; all the more impressive when in the post-fight interview it was revealed Jones had suffered a gruesome toe injury during the bout. Jones moves to five straight title defenses, while Sonnen hinted at a possible retirement in his post-fight speech.

UFC 159 was a great night of fights, but may ultimately be remembered for a series of freak accidents and injuries. Aside from Jones’s toe injury and Belchers eye, both Yancy Medeiros and Gian Vilante had their contests stopped due to injuries, with Medeiros suffering a dislocated thumb while Vilante lost a technical decision after an accidental eye poke. Though a night filled with bizarre finishes, UFC 159 provided matchups full of excitement and some destined to become classics. Prospects emerged as contenders and a champion cemented himself as a legitimate superstar.

UFC 159

**The Change in the parlay format is to focus more winning smaller amounts more frequently

Parlay Doubles

Parlay Triples

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Parlay Double-Double

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Steven Siler $1.71 vs Kurt Holobaugh $2.20

Holobaugh opened as the favourite which I found interesting considering he is debuting against a guy who is 3-1 inside the Octagon already. Siler is a tough guy, very feisty, and despite his high number of finishes from early in his career he is no easy out. Elkins put an absolute beating on him last time out and Siler was still attacking in the final seconds of that battle. Holobaugh turned some heads in his short notice debut against Pat Healy and although he was clearly defeated, he put up a valiant effort against a very durable veteran. Holobaugh showed some decent skills on the ground against Bam Bam and had he not be facing one of the biggest LWs around I think he would have faired much better. Every time that Kurt got something going Healy was able to use his size and strength to power out of the position. That won’t be the case here against Siler. Siler is a long and lean 145er with decent size for the division, but he shouldn’t be able to overmatch and bully Holobaugh around the cage. What this fight comes down to his that Holobaugh is going to get the better of most situations and if he doesn’t get the finish he will at least take it on the judge’s cards. I would suggest a mid-range single bet on this fight and/or doubling Holobaugh up with one of the mid level favourites on the card like Leonard Garcia, James Head, or Michael Bisping.

James Head $1.68 vs Nick Catone $2.33- Cancelled

Head actually opened this fight as the slight dog, paying under $2.00 still, but unfortunately with all the time and effort I put into both my predictions and bet packs the timeframe just wasn’t right to capitalize on that scenario. Fortunately he hasn’t slid all that far down and has actually been moving up in recent days. Head is simply the more dynamic fighter. He is the better striker and although Catone comes from a better wrestling background Head is no slouch on the ground and has the tools to defend Catone’s takedowns and completely remove his biggest weapon from the fight equation. Looking at their recent bouts, even though this fight is taking place WW, Catone’s last MW bout against Chris Camozzi played out very similar to how I expect this one to. Catone will most likely land the odd takedown, but he will do little damage from the position and struggle to control the bigger man all while getting out landed on the feet. I like Heads value and he is a decent mid-range favourite as far as betting returns are concerned. A single bet wouldn’t bet wouldn’t be out of the question, but more likely I would considering investing in Head as part of a 2 or 3 fight parlay.

Leonard Garcia $1.59 vs Cody McKenzie $2.40

If this isn’t the Pink Slip Bowl I don’t know what it is. The loser of this fight will almost certainly get their walking papers which adds that element of desperation into the mix. Even so, Garcia is the more well rounded fight. Most fight fans, and probably Leonard himself have completely forgot that Garcia is a BJJ Brown belt with most of his wins coming by way of submission. I know right. I don’t expect to see him taking Cody down in this fight, in fact I hope he doesn’t but what I do anticipate is that he Garcia would be able to hold his own should they go to the ground. Garcia’s power is overstated, there is no question about that. Joe Rogan tries every single fight to convince us otherwise, but the guy only has 3 wins by knockout and none in recent memory. For both Rogan and Leo’s sake this fight will give him the chance to add a little fuel to the “Garcie has knockout power” campaign. McKenzie has a glass body, he has been stopped recently by Mendes with one punch to the midsection and going back to TUF Nam Phan blitz him with some quick stiff shots to the same region and put him on the mat for the win. Garcia has been known to go to the body and training with the master of game planning- Greg Jackson, this one is pretty straight forward. I don’t expect to see Cody crumple after just one shot, but I can see him being slowed down when Garcia gets in close and then eventually finished. Could McKenzie land a guillotine choke, which appears to be his only way to win fights, yes he could, but it is a submission fighter’s variation of a puncher’s chance. Take Garcia in this one and working him into your parlays with the likes of Bisping, Head, and Bedford for so low risk but decent returning bets.

Rustam Khabilov $1.34 vs Yancy Medeiros $3.42

It is hard to predict a fight when the information about one half of the match up is far and few between. What my prediction came down to was a) what we know bout Khabilov + b) the circumstances that surround Medeiros heading into this fight. A UFC debut, a return after 3 years out of action, and cutting down not one but two weightclasses is what is on the table for the former Strikeforce fighter. That is way too much for a fighter to overcome and if he does happen to pull off the upset, it is still way to much for a predictor or bettor to consider backing him. I was impressed with Khabilov’s debut performance and it wasn’t a fluke he has suplexed his way to victory before. I will consider using him on a larger parlay with a smaller amount of cash on the line, but the fact of the matter is I would suggest leaving this fight out of your big investments because of a lack of knowledge and overall value.

Sara McMann $1.18 vs Sheila Gaff $5.30

The odds are too steep to even bother betting this one. If Gaff can blast Sara before she can get her wrestling going then she has a chance, but its a long one. Gaff has never faced anyone on this level of wrestling before and it will show. I would love to bet a prop with McMann by submission but it most likely won’t be offered. McMann wins this fight, but I won’t be risking anything for such a small return.

Ovince St. Preux $1.43 vs Gian Villante $2.75

This fight should be headlining the prelims now that Perez/ Bedford is no more, but with both guys coming out of Strikeforce they have the ability to put on a good scrap, but not the fan following to draw in the final fight before the big card. I like both guys, but I think that OSP is being overvalued here. He is still working on developing his skills and is quite raw. He sometimes will appear stiff in his movement and it seemed like he was fighting with a lot of doubt against Mousasi which is never a good thing. Villante showed some significant strides in his last fight and his near year away from the cage could create some ring rust but could also produce an improved fighter with a more diverse repertoire that OSP will have no basis to prepare for. The same could be said for OSP who has been out for nearly 9 months, but to me he hasn’t shown the fight by fight improvement that Villante has. This is a big fight for both men as the winner gets a push up the ladder into the competitive list of guys trying to the fill the void left by current champion Jon Jones destroying all challengers that have come calling to date. OSP certainly has the physical strength and raw ability to win this fight, but I think outside of Mousasi, Gian offers him a very competitive opponent something he hasn’t really had much to do with in recent memory. I could see this ending early or going the distance and being very close, lots of scenarios at play here. I like Villante to pull it out and would suggest a decent sized single bet on him. I feel he is being undervalued here and is certainly worth a shot. If you don’t want to invest a lot on him but would still like to have a good payout up for grabs consider a 3-way parlay with Villante, Holobaugh, James Head or Johnny Bedford.

Johnny Bedford $1.72 vs Bryan Caraway $2.11

I can’t blame Caraway for wanting to get right back into the cage and try to erase the memory of his last fight. When Miesha Tate told him between rounds 2 and 3 that he was up and could coast I almost fell of my chair. He had done much better then I expect, but by no means was in a position to take it easy. I expect he will be motivated in this fight because of that, but how long he can sustain a high level of performance is going to play a major role in his success. Taking a fight on short notice can lead to guys having conditioning issues. They may feel in great shape, but in all reality they aren’t conditioned the same way as if they had a full camp. Johnny B. Bad likes to push a high pace and if Caraway can’t keep up he will be in some serious trouble and quickly. The only real cause for concern is how good Caraway is on the ground vs how many times that Bedford has been tapped out. But if we look at some of the specifics it should ease some of those concerns. First Bedford hasn’t been tapped out since 2009 which is 9 fights plus his TUF bouts (but he could be overdue). Secondly, Caraway is dominant position (top control/ back mount) type of fighter with 11 of his 15 submission coming by rear naked choke. I struggle to see him getting too many dominant position on Bedford with his type of wrestling and many of Johnny’s submission have come with him in top position. I think Bedford has a tonne of value here. I would consider making a decent sized single bet on him and also using him as a key part of my parlay bets for the event. For Caraway I think that his striking will cost him and if he is unable to have any grappling success he will be up against big time.

Jim Miller $1.34 vs Pat Healy $3.37

Jim Miller was a man on a mission last fight and obliterated Joe Lauzon just about as bad as you can without finishing someone. Miller recognizes that if he has any chance to remain in title contention for a future shot this is another must win. With his already one-sided loss to the Champion in the books he’ll need to put together a big run. Healy had his chance to fight for the SF title taken away from him by injury, but he can get right back into the mix with a win here. Healy is a big/ physical wrestling based fighter and those type of opponents have given J-Mills some trouble before. If Bam Bam can get on top of Miller and grind him down then he has a great chance to take the win away, but the speed and aggression of Jimmy is going to make this tough. Healy has been knocked out a number of times in his career and that is something I am focussing on with this fight. It has been a while since he was KOed and it took place at WW but both Maximo Blanco (now at FW) and Caros Fodor clearly hurt him in the early exchanges of their fights. If Miller blitzs Healy like he did to Lauzon landing those brutal elbows I think Healy will go down. Miller at $1.34 isn’t a great bet, but he might be worth inclusion on one of your larger parlays where u play more and bet less. What I really like is Healy by KO/TKO/DQ paying in the neighborhood of $6.80. Even a small bet makes this one a big return and I think it is far more likely then this odd would indicate.

Phil Davis $1.33 vs Vinny Magalhaes $3.65

BJJ vs wrestling. One of the most talented wrestlers in the UFC vs one of the most talented BJJ guys. Can Magalhaes either catch Davis with a submission or use his grappling to ground and grind out Davis for a decision? Of the two I think the first is more likely. I just don’t see Vinny being able to take Davis down or reverse him if Davis scores the TD, so he is going to have to catch him. If Vinny can get an arm that is his best opportunity to finish. Davis is so strong on the ground that the likelihood of a RNC or Guillotine is low, but if his arm gets locked up its going to be tap or snap. That all being said I don’t think Vinny has that great a chance to pull off the submission win either. Davis is a very strong man and his heavy top game is going to make it hard to lock up a submission and as they get sweaty and Magalhaes gets tired it will become more and more difficult. Davis, like Miller above doesn’t offer a tonne as far as a straight up win is concern and taking him by decision only bumps him up to the $1.75 range. I think the play here is Davis by submission. He is a talented submission fighter in his own right and at $6.10 you can’t go wrong with that bet. When Magalhaes gets tired he will be a primed candidate for Mr. Wonderful to start running submission. I don’t expect it to happen early as Davis will want to mind his P’s and Q’s to avoid getting caught, but once he feels his opponent slowing down then he will open up.

Roy Nelson $1.45 vs Cheick Kongo $2.97

Nelson pays a little bit better then the two previous favourites and in the public picks section he is currently sitting in the 80-84% range where fighters are 14-4 which is encouraging. Nelson doesn’t do a whole lot with his striking, but he is still effective. He uses a quick lead left that sometimes is just tossed out as a “hey look at this before I blast you with my right hand” type punch. Kongo should be able to keep him off with kicks and a more diverse striking repertoire, but he won’t. Nelson’s chin, which against HWs could go at any time, is impressive and seems to be the difference in most of his fights. He gets outlanded almost 2-1 in a lot of his bouts but his ability to walk through and hurt guys is pretty impressive and makes betting against him a nightmare. His style has cost him before- Mir, JDS, and Werdum (all of whom I picked to win), but it won’t against Kongo. Kongo is at his best when he can get inside and outmuscle his opponents. Yes he can fight on the fringe, but he needs that clinch game at his disposal to be at his best. Every time he closes the distance to set that up he will just be aiding Nelson’s ability to land that big OHR. Nelson shouldn’t need much help though as I expect he will get in fine on his own and do the damage needed. You could consider adding Big Country to a parlay bet but just like the last 2 I think a prop play is just what the doctor ordered playing Nelson to win by KO/TKO/DQ @ $2.20.

Michael Bisping $1.63 vs Alan Belcher $2.44

Both guys are needing a win here big time. Belcher has never beaten a top level opponent and back to back losses against Okami and Bisping would make him almost irrelevant for the time being. For Bisping he was so close to being the next top contender, but got smacked back down by Captain TRT. Belcher has power and striking skill and that could be enough to pull this one out, especially if Bisping the Brit comes out as tentative as he did last time. For me his striking volume and improving wrestling will be the difference maker. Belcher likes to sit down on his punches which can generate power, but also makes him an easier target to hit for a guy using a more mobile approach. Additionally, Belcher has had a world of trouble defending takedowns even against guys like Patrick Cote who isn’t known for his ground game. If Bisping mixes up his ground game he should find some success against Belcher and keep him guessing leading to a decision win. My play here is Bisping to win this fight outright. While a Prop bet on him by decision pays pretty well at $2.35 and might be worth a look, the Count does have the ability to pile up the damage with his high output striking and score a knockout late so I’ll just take him to win this fight and not care how he gets it done. For Belcher a win by knockout at $5.20 is worth a look and potentially a small bet as I don’t see him winning this fight any other way.

Jon Jones $1.10 vs Chael Sonnen $7.00

The odds for this fight are all over the place, but the overarching trend is that Jones pays too little to even consider a bet. Jones by submission pays much better and is the play right at $2.45. Jones has submitted a number of his recent opponents-Vitor, Machida, Bader, and Jackson and Chael as a well documented history of getting submitted. I won’t be shocked if Sonnen is able to score a couple of takedowns and make Jones’s fans nervous, but I expect that eventually Jones will get in a position to finish this fight via tapout. As far as Chael’s chances of winning this fight are concern- don’t write him off. Many people are giving him less then 0% chance of taking the title, but that is short sighted and just plain silly. Sonnen is a big strong man with a high level wrestling background, something that Jones has yet to deal with in his career. Look for Chael to come forward aggressively and look to get in on Jon-Jon’s legs ASAP. The chances of Sonnen finishing the fight are minimal and although him grinding out a 3 round decision is going to be a tall order, he is capable. Sonnen by decision at $11.50 or higher is worth a look, it won’t cost much for a decent return and is probably the most likely way that Sonnen wins this fight. Otherwise Jones by submission is the play here.

Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Sara McMann $1.18

2. Jim Miller $1.34

3. Jon Jones $1.10

4. Roy Nelson $1.45

5. Rustam Khabilov $1.34

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6. Phil Davis $1.33

7. James Head $1.68

8. Leonard Garcia $1.59

9. Johnny Bedford $1.72

10. Michael Bisping $1.63

11. Gian Villante $2.75

12. Kurt Holobaugh $2.20

-Purchase the $5 Bet Pack to get my rankings for the entire event + my non-predicted Top 5 Value Plays

Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

• Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
• I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Prop Bets-

Johnny Bedford/ Bryan Caraway Total Rounds Under 2.5- Bedford is a finisher there is no denying that and if Caraway can get this fight into a good position on the ground he could add another tally to Johnny’s submission losses column. Play the Under.

Nick Catone/ James Head Total Rounds Over 2.5- Not a lot of stats to back this one up, but I think that Head will be cautious to avoiding making a mistake and this will force the fight long and probably to the scorecards. Play the Over.

Sara McMann/ Sheila Gaff Total Rounds Under 2.5- 2 WMMA fights in the UFC and 2 finishes. McMann is a strong wrestler on a level that Gaff has never faced and it will show once the fight hits the ground. Gaff also has the ability to end fights quickly and has done it a number of times so if she pulls the upset you won’t be let down by backing McMann.Play the Under instead of the favourite.

Jim Miller to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $6.20- I love this play and I think it has a real possibility of hitting with how aggressive Miller came out in his last fight. Statement time for the New Jersey native!

Roy Nelson to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $1.91- The value here is dropping but it is still worth a look as it is a likely scenario.

Roy Nelson/ Cheick Kongo Total Rounds Under 1.5- This will be 1.5 not 2.5 as it is a HW bout. Nelson most likely takes this via KO but if we get a French connection of epic perportions Nelson’s granite chin could be cracked. Play the Under.

Phil Davis to Win by Submission $8.00- A longer shot prop as the value would indicate, but still worth a look. A lot can be gained for Mr. Wonderful if he taps a decorated BJJ guys like Vinny. Vinny gets tired and the wrestler moves in for the kill.

Michael Bisping/ Alan Belcher Total Rounds Over 2.5- Both guys have the ability to finish, but it is going to be tough to shut this fight down early for either man. Play the Over.

Jon Jones to Win by Submission $2.45- Tonnes of value here, Jones is picking up the submission wins frequently of late and Chael seems to fall victim to the tap tap tap with regularity.

On April 27th the most dominant light heavyweight champion of this decade Jon Jones takes on the enigmatic self-made superstar Chael Sonnen, in a highly anticipated five-round showdown between the new breed of martial artists against an old-school veteran.

The main event for the light heavyweight title will see the ending of a feud that has been slowly building for well over a year. It is highly documented that after Dan Henderson’s injury forced him out of a title fight with Jones scheduled for UFC 151, Chael was eager and willing to step in as a last-minute replacement. Jones however, turned down the fight, resulting in the first cancelled card in UFC history, and Jones’s name and brand being dragged through the proverbial mud. With a victory over Vitor Belfort in the books, Jones will finally square off with Sonnen, whose willingness to step up to the UFC’s call has leapfrogged him to the top of the division. The two coached opposite each other in season 17 of the Ultimate Fighter, and while the two started out on good terms, it became apparent that Jones was tiring of the Sonnen hype train. Chael’s verbal tirade against the champion seems to have finally had its desired effect, as Jones has fired back with barbs of his own in recent weeks. Will Sonnen be able to back up his smack talk and dethrone the dominant young champion? Or will Jones finally shut up the brash and confident challenger, making him just another statistic on his impressive fight résumé. Tune into the UFC on pay-per-view this Saturday to find out.

In the co-main event, a middleweight clash between two men with serious dislike for one another pits top contenders Michael “The Count” Bisping faces off with Alan “The Talent” Belcher. Bisping was once again on the cusp of title contention before being knocked out by Vitor Belfort this past January, erasing the momentum of five wins in six fights. Belcher saw his four fight win streak stopped this past December with a decision loss to Yushin Okami, a span in which he scored four straight finishes over the likes of Rousimar Palhares and Patrick Cote. One man will get his career back on track come fight night, while the other will be left with the bad taste of defeat and a damaged pride, losing to a known adversary. Fireworks are bound to ensue and we will finally find out which trash talking middleweight will reign supreme.

Rounding out the main card are a trio of intriguing scraps, as Roy Nelson takes on Cheick Kongo at heavyweight; Phil Davis takes on rival Vinny Magalhaes and Jim Miller welcomes Strikeforce import Pat Healy. Nelson returns on the strength of two straight knockouts over Dave Herman and Matt Mitrione, while Kongo fights for the first time since a July decision win over Shawn Jordan. Davis takes on twitter rival Magalhaes, as the two petitioned to fight each other over the course of the past year, initiating a heated rivalry at light heavyweight. Davis recently defeated Wagner Prado in October while Magalhaes returned to the UFC in September and subbed Igor Pokrajac. Vinny riled off seven wins in eight fights after his first stint in the UFC, all by stoppage. In the night’s opening bout a lightweight tilt guaranteed to be entertaining features long time contender Jim Miller, coming off a fight of the night win against Joe Lauzon, against Pat Healy, who won seven of eight fights in Strikeforce, cementing himself as a threat in the division.

The seven fight preliminary card is anchored by a bantamweight showdown between Erik Perez and Johnny Bedford, and also features a clash of Strikeforce imports Gian Villante and Ovince St. Preux, as well as the UFC debuts of women’s bantamweight competitors Sara McMann and Sheila Gaff.

UFC 159 is going to be a fantastic event and Kamikazeoverdrive.net has all of your MMA Prediction needs including the latest episode of the best Prediction show on the web, the Prediction Panel will be posting their picks, the Public Picks section is updated and taking votes, and the bet packs are being put together throughout fight week. Don’t miss out on your opportunity to make a big splash this weekend and as always enjoy the fights!

Main Card
205lbs- Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen
185lbs- Michael Bisping vs. Alan Belcher
265lbs Roy Nelson vs. Cheick Kongo
205lbs Phil Davis vs. Vinny Magalhaes
155lbs Jim Miller vs. Pat Healy
Preliminary Card
135lbs- Erik Perez vs. Johnny Bedford
205lbs- Gian Villante vs. Ovince St. Preux
135lbs- Sara McMann vs. Sheila Graff
155lbs- Rustam Khabilov vs. Yancy Medeiros
145lbs- Leonard Garcia vs. Cody McKenzie
170lbs- Nick Catone vs. James Head
145lbs- Steven Siler vs. Kurt Holobaugh

>>>>UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen Prelim Predictions<<<<

UFC on Fox came back into our lives with it’s seventh installment, and the main card was of PPV caliber as always.

The Main Card opened up with Matt Brown vs Jordan Mein, and what an opener it was! Both guys came out swinging, and did everything in their power to inflict as much damage as they humanly could towards each other with every limb available. That’s the kind of fight Matt Brown wanted, and he took full advantage of it. In the end,  although Mein hurt Brown badly with a body shot in the second, Matt Brown was simply too violent, aggressive and determined for Mein. Brown turned it into a mean fight, and Mein didn’t like it at all, while ultimately turtling in the second round, being finished by TKO. This puts Matt Brown to five straight victories in the UFC.

Nothing is better than seeing a main card open up the way it did and you realize how awesome these Fox cards are when immediately after you get two elite lightweights in Josh Thompson vs Nate Diaz.  These two competitors kept the ball rolling for sure. The first round consisted of a lot of typical Diaz taunting, and Thompson not falling for it. Thompson went into this fight wanting to implement a lot of movement and to choose wisely with strikes. This paid off in the second round for Thompson as he landed a huge head kick and swarms Diaz with punches on the ground afterwards. This is the first time Diaz has been stopped in the UFC, and it’s a great homecoming for Josh Thompson with that awesome finish.

Daniel Cormier vs Frank Mir came next, yet another big fight on Fox, but unfortunately it didn’t deliver like the previous two main card fights. There were a lot of high expectations going into this one, and it turned out to be a clinch fest with a mix of dirty boxing. Frank Mir had a better gas tank than he has in the past, but it wasn’t enough to stop Cormier from using his clinch control up against the cage and grinding out a decision. Each round looked like the previous one, with Mir making it somewhat interesting in the third with some significant strikes. A unanimous decision victory for Cormier, and it’s time for the main event of the evening.

The lightweight title was on the line with Benson Henderson defending against Gilbert Melendez. This fight took place primarily on the feet with only one takedown in the whole fight which happened in the first round thanks to Melendez. Unfortunately, it wasn’t the kind of stand up battle we saw in the opening two main card fights that ended brutally. Instead, we saw a tactical stand up fight, one round after the other. The biggest blow took place in the third round by Benson with a nasty elbow, but other than that it was a big cat and mouse fight with Henderson occasionally landing with his “in and out” tactics, and Melendez landing from time to time with his aggressive “move forward” attack.

In the end, Benson Henderson was able to avoid Melendez well enough and land more strikes while doing so to earn the split decision victory. Saddest part of this fight was that the highlight of it all was Benson asking his wife to marry him in the post fight interview, and that was still disappointing, because you’d think the lightweight champion of the world would have a hotter wife.

All in all, regardless of the last two fights slowing things down,  it was an entertaining card and I am most certainly looking forward to the next UFC on Fox, as it’s always stacked with big implications. Good job UFC!

UFC on FOX 7

Parlay Doubles

Parlay Triples

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Parlay Double-Double

A Puncher’s Chance

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Parlay #8- Why the Hell not?
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Selection 1: Cormier by Decision $5.00
Selection 2: Josh Thomson $2.74
Selection 3: Tim Means $2.36
Selection 4: Hugo Viana $4.25
Selection 5: Clifford Starks $2.40
Selection 6: Mein by KO/TKO/DQ $3.20
Selection 7: Henderson by TKO $7.15
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Price: $7545.51

Rotation Play #1

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Yoel Romero $1.59 vs Clifford Starks $2.40

Romero has so much potential and honestly I think that is what these odds are based on, but never once has Bruce Buffer announced “and your winner by potential…”. Many talented guys from other combat sports backgrounds have failed to meet expectations in when they try their hand at MMA. Romero has 5 career fights, 4 KO wins over relative unknowns and a second round knockout against Feijao that was preceded by a full round of dancing and circling from Romero. Starks has some tools, he too is a wrestler but not at the level of Romero. Then again, different fighters translate their wrestling to MMA with varying levels of success, look at Kamal Shalorus for example. Either way I think that Starks has the ability to take this fight especially when you consider the potential impacts of Romero’s near 20 month layoff, his UFC debut, a 20 pound weight cut from LHW to MW, and to make it all worse he has next to no experience to draw upon to help him prepare. When you look at all of these factors and that Romero is the favourite it is clear that the value of this fight lies with Starks. I would say a mid-range bet make sense and I would also consider working him into at least one parlay.

Anthony Njokuani $1.65 vs Roger Bowling $2.25

There is a lot of people on the Roger Bowling train for this fight, but I am not one of them. He is making his UFC debut and also cutting from 170 to 155 for the first time. His cardio has been his worst enemy throughout his career and unless he really gets things under control it should be an issue here again. He struggles to fight a full 3 rounds at a high pace and it is his pace that makes his attack more effective. His wrestling is only so-so and he has striking power and some decent options with his hands, but against the Muay Thai of Njokuani he will easily be the second best striker in the cage. Njo has had issues with wrestlers before but looking at Danny Castillo his wrestling is far superior to what Bowling brings, Danny had a tonne of trouble landing maintaining his takedowns. Most likely Bowling will come out very strong and then start to fade in round 2 or Njokuani’s TDD and superior striking will carry the flow of the fight from start to finish either way the former WECer taks this. I like his value, he offers a lot to the parlays. I will most likely be using him a couple of times and I will also consider a bet on the total rounds Over 2.5.

T.J. Dillashaw $1.22 vs Hugo Viana $4.25

I have been waiting for a matchup like this for Dillashaw for a long time. I almost pulled the trigger on the Lee fight, but felt Lee was vulnerable enough on the mat that TJ could capitalize on. If TJ can’t or chooses not to take this fight to the ground then the odds swing decidedly closer then where they are now. Viana mas big power despite only one knockout win. He throws from his feet and is able to unload with a high volume of punches. If he gets too aggressive then Dillashaw is going to duck under and shoot on him, but I really like some of the things I see if this fight stays vertical. One of the biggest red flags that popped up is the way in which TJ hangs his lead left hand. It leaves him open for an opponent to come over the top with a right hand and with the power, speed, and distance that Hugo can cover this is a real possibility. I would be blowing smoke if I tried to tell you that Dillashaw can’t win this fight, he can, but it needs to come with his wrestling. I think he is being totally overvalued here and Viana has the skillset to take him out. There are two plays here. The first is of course a single bet on Viana and I will even consider working him into a parlay or two because his value is so high. The other option is to hit the total rounds under 2.5. I picked Viana by knockout and Dillashaw by KO or sub is also a real possibility and would end this fight inside the first 2.5 rounds most likely. The second is the safer bet, but the first packs a whole pile of potential profit if it hits.

Tim Means $2.36 vs Jorge Masvidal $1.61

I love this bet, but I fully anticipate that Means is going to drop in value as we get closer to bell time. Quickly looking at Bestfightodds.com I see that a couple of sites have him as low as 2.05 now, but the rest range between 2.20 and 2.36. Masvidal is good there is no mistaking it, but he is just way to tentative. Even against guys like Justin Wilcox that he could easily outstrike he seemed to hold back and that resulted in a much closer split decision then it really should have been. Mean’s Muay Thai is solid and he is much more aggressive and has that killer instinct that Masvidal seems to lack. Masvidal will open up when he gets his opponent hurt, but until then it is just jab, jab, jab and nothing too aggressive. Means on the other hand will be much more assertive and unless he gets caught his aggression and wider variety of strikes will win over the judges. I like Tim for a big single bet, that is why I’ve got him ranked #1. He is also a solid parlay play with some nice value to beef up your return. I also think the over in this fight is a good play. Masvidal hasn’t finished anyone since 2009 and he should be defensively sound enough to avoid getting put away.

Joseph Benavidez $1.20 vs Darren Uyenoyama $5.01

Benavidez is simply the more well-rounded fighter here. Uyenoyama needs to get his fight to the ground which will be tough and even then he needs to do it in a position where he can attack from- harder still. Benavidez is the better striker and although I felt his technique was his downfall against Johnson, I was impressed with him against McCall. Most likely this fight ends with either a knockout/ submission or a very frustrated Uyenoyama struggling to keep up on the feet- either way its a win for Benavidez. Benavidez doesn’t offer a much for the win and although I think he wins this one handily the risk/reward of including him on a parlay isn’t that enticing. I let you decide if you want to include him or not.

Ramsey Nijem $3.17 vs Myles Jury $1.41

I felt Nijem would get more credit then being a better then 3-1 dog. At the same time, Jury looked strong in his last fight and has the tools to win, but maybe not in the run away that these odds suggest. I didn’t think the line would be even, but I had Jury paying around the $1.60-1.75 range. Some people might be under the disillusion that this type of line can be exploited because of a ‘mistake’ made by the books when they undervalued Nijem. Yes I think the odds should be closer, but no I don’t think Ramsey wins this fight and whether he pays $2.25, $3.24, or $6.55 they all payout the same when a fighter losses. Some might suggest that the value makes Ramsey too good to pass up. I have used this line of logic before, but only when I feel the underdog has a good chance to win. This is MMA and anything can happen, but I did my breakdown well before the lines were posted and I felt Jury wins this bout in almost all scenarios. Either way, Myles has a little value at $1.41 and will most likely will be used on a parlay bet or two.

Francis Carmont $1.77 vs Lorenz Larkin $2.00

Based on the public picks, he betting public is favouring Larkin, the dog, at a 69% clip which I find a little shocking. The trend so far is that when the betting public is this heavily in favour of the dog they only win 40% of the time, but this scenario has only happened 5 times so that sample size is way too small to consider it legitimate. Carmont has more to offer then Larkin, his striking is just as good and his ground game is far superior. The nice thing about the public being so heavily on Larkin is that it appears the numbers are starting to move and the value of Carmont is going up. On at least one book the line has moved to even and although I don’t expect to see Carmont as the dog by bell time, any swift in his direction is a good one. I think Carmont is worth a mid-range single bet and he also offers a lot as far as increasing the value of your parlays. Playing Carmont, Njokuani and Means together would have a nice payout and I think its a solid bet.

Chad Mendes $1.16 vs Darren Elkins $5.15

Short and sweet, no value here with Mendes as he just pays too little to risk a bet. I might consider a small play on Elkins as he has value, ranging as high as $6.45 on some books. Mendes has the better skillset but Elkins is a tough dude and offers something that we really have seen Mendes tested against in a while. Most likely I will just sit this one out, but if my book gets Elkins up over $6.00 I might take a stab.

Matt Brown $3.65 vs Jordan Mein $1.30

This should a really entertaining scrap for two reasons- Mein is a very talented fighter and Matt Brown is gritty as hell. I had Mein to take out Miller by knockout and played the prop accordingly and it paid off big time. I intend to do the same again with Mein paying in the $3.40 range. At $1.30 he isn’t that enticing to win straight up, maybe worth one inclusion on a parlay but nothing too big. Mein winning by TKO is a decent bet, even though Brown has never been stopped he clearly takes a lot of damage and has been hurt before in fights. Brown could pull the upset here, but he will need to run a perfect race through some pretty rocky terrain and do it by scoring and maintaining his takedowns. Mein does have issue with grappling defense, but outside of the Woodley fight and a few outings earlier in his career he has really clean things up on the ground. I would Think Mein by TKO along with a couple of the other dogs (Means & Starks) would provide a nice parlay return if you are interested. I like Matt Brown but he comes up short here.

Nate Diaz $1.51 vs Josh Thomson $2.74

This was my first official upset pick on this card as I did the prelims after the main card predictions as per usual. I really went back and forth on this fight and ended on the Punk. Honestly this fight could go either way and wouldn’t surprise me not matter the outcome. The public picks sections currently favours Josh Thomson 24-12 (67%) and so far the Public has not been good at picking upsets with an overall record of 5-16, but they are 2-3 in the 65-69% range where this fight currently sits which the best of any of the underdog percentages. A lot of people want to point at the Miller/ Diaz fight and use that as their reasoning for feeling Nate will take this fight and I can totally side with them, but at the same time he is coming off a serious wrestling based beat down which was similar to other Diaz vs wrestler match ups. Thomson’s kicks are another key to him winning this fight. He throws a lot including a nice front kick to the midsection which should serve to keep Diaz from continually pushing forward. My guess is a close decision win for punk and playing him as a mid-range single bet is my advice. I will also be working him in a parlay as well, but again nothing too extensive as this one is going to be close.

Daniel Cormier $1.27 vs Frank Mir $4.15

Is the Cormier hype real? Well considering he smashed both Barnett and Bigfoot Silva with relative ease I think it is and this fight will give him his next big name victim. Can Frank Mir win this fight? Sure, but there is a but. The only scenario I see Frankie taking this one home in is if he gets dropped by Cormier and then when Dan moves in to close the deal he relinquishes all focus on defense and Mir is able to lock up a desperation submission. Its a potential scenario, see the Big Nog fight for proof, but honestly a game plan that involves getting smashed on the feet isn’t that promising. Cormier’s TDD will prevent Mir from getting the fight to the ground and his hand speed and ever improving technique couple with his power will be the final nail in the former champs coffin. Betting-wise Cormier doesn’t offer a whole lot to win straight up but his numbers improve when you look at potential outcomes. For my prediction I took Dan by knockout which is a likely scenario, but doesn’t pay much better then a straight up win. The bet I am considering is DC by decision and I will break it down for you in the prop section.

Benson Henderson $1.41 vs Gilbert Melendez $2.95

A fight that has been a long time in making and represents 3 MMA organizations with the former WEC champ and current UFC champ fighting the Strikeforce champ. All we need is Michael Chandler to make this a triple threat match and we have all the top NA MMA orgs represented in the LW division. I felt Gil lost to Thomson, he looked uninspired at points during the fight and I feel that was a product of his waning interested in competing outside of the UFC. I remember back to how badly he thrashed Kawajiri right after it was announced that the UFC had bought Strikeforce and it was clear that he would eventually be competing in the Octagon. What I expected is a much more motivated Melendez in this fight, but I think that he will suffer from the combination of an adrenaline dump after the first round, the physicality of Henderson, and a pace that he is unable to match. Henderson’s value is dropping and for the most part is barely holding onto the $1.40 mark on just a couple of site. I think the play here is Henderson by TKO/KO paying out at $7.15. Henderson isn’t a big knockout guy, but the beating he put on Diaz was spectacular. Diaz survived because he is pretty good off his back and Henderson had to be mindful, but Gilbert isn’t and I fully expected to see him overwhelmed on the ground. I would say a single bet makes sense here, it pays out pretty big on even a small investment and with the huge return a bet on 4 fights main card based on my 4 picks would provide a massive payout.

Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Daniel Cormier $1.27

2. Benson Henderson $1.41

3. Joseph Benavidez $1.20

4. Chad Mendes $1.16

5. Jordan Mein $1.30

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6. Myles Jury $1.36

7. Tim Means $2.36

8. Francis Carmont $1.77

9. Anthony Njokuani $1.65

10. Josh Thomson $2.74

11. Clifford Starks $2.40

12. Hugo Viana $4.25

-Purchase the $5 Bet Pack to get my rankings for the entire event + my non-predicted Top 5 Value Plays

Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

• Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
• I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Prop Bets-

Tim Means/ Jorge Masvidal Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.61- Means has only gone to decision twice in his career, but Masvidal has gone the distance 16 times and I expect this to be an entertaining full 3 rounds with both guys offering enough defensively to avoid a finish. Play the Over.

Anthony Njokuani/ Roger Bowling Total Rounds Over 2.5 $1.56- This one could be a bit tougher as both guys have finishing capabilities. Njo has gone the distance 10 times in his career and in each of his 5 UFC bouts. Bowling only has 3 decision fights, but I see this playing out much like his fight with Tarec- Bowling won’t be able to put Njokuani away and Njo will be content to score points without over extending himself. Play the Over.

TJ Dillashaw/ Hugo Viana Total Rounds Under 2.5 $2.00- This play takes into account both possibilities of Dillashaw scoring the submission or Viana landing that big overhand right for the KO. Play the Under.

Jordan Mein to Win by TKO/KO/DQ $3.20- Mein is beast and although Brown has never been stopped before I see Jordan putting it on him and eventually forcing the ref to step in just like he did against Dan Miller.

Daniel Cormier to Win by Decision $5.00- This one might seem perplexing with Cormier’s power and Mir’s suspect ability to take a big punch. I think that Cormier is going to take a similar approach to his fight with Barnett. Land takedowns, but no ground work, and then pick Mir apart from range with his striking. There is a risk here, but don’t be shocked if this one goes to the judges.

Ben Henderson to Win by KO/TKO/DQ $7.15- This is a risky play, but I see potential that it hits. You could play it by itself or consider a play of Mein KO, Cormier Dec, Henderson TKO, and Thomson and have a shot at a huge return on small bet. $313.46 x your bet.

 On April 20^th the question as to who is the true dominant force in the lightweight division will finally be answered as champ Benson “Smooth” Henderson puts his belt on the line against the long time consensus number two man in the division, Gilbert Melendez.

In the five round main event, Henderson will face a man who has all but dominated the lightweight division for the better part of four years. The final Strikeforce lightweight champion has ripped off seven straight victories over notable contenders like Josh Thompson, Tatsuya Kawajiri and Shinya Aoki. In Henderson, Melendez faces a man who has only lost one fight in over five years and whose own win streak features signature victories against former champ Frankie Edgar and highly touted contenders Nate Diaz, Clay Guida and Jim Miller. With Melendez’s long awaited title shot finally within reach, the future of the lightweight division could be forever changed come Saturday. Will the young and hungry challenger usher in a new era of dominance at 155 pounds? Or will Henderson add another signature win to his already impressive list of victories? Either way, we are in for one hell of a title fight.

The co-main event features highly touted heavyweight Daniel Cormier taking on long time contender Frank Mir in an intriguing scrap. Cormier has made waves in recent years, winning the Strikeforce grand-prix with a knockout of top contender Antonio Silva and a thorough beat down of longtime top ten heavyweight Josh Barnett. A systematic destruction of Dion Staring in Strikeforce’s final event in January set the stage for this encounter with Mir, a fight that was originally scheduled under the Strikeforce banner last November. Cormier’s knockout power and elite level wrestling should prove to give the crafty Mir problems, though on the ground Mir has all the tools to give Cormier a run for his money. Cormier could find himself on the cusp of a title shot with a victory, while Mir will look to derail the “DC” hype train and firmly reposition himself atop the heavyweight ladder.

Rounding out the main card are two intriguing encounters at lightweight and welterweight. First, former top contender Nate Diaz takes on Strikeforce import Josh Thompson, in a fight where we can expect to see a multi-faceted display of mixed martial arts. In the opening bout of the main card the suddenly relevant Matt Brown, coming off a knockout of Mike Swick, faces highly touted Jordan Mein, who last month stopped durable welterweight Dan Miller in the opening round.  Both fights have the potential to be fight of the night contenders and are sure to give the winners a chance to springboard up the rankings of their divisions.

The nine fight preliminary card is anchored by an important featherweight tilt between Chad “Money” Mendes and Darrin Elkins. Elsewhere a lightweight clash features TUF Smashes winner Norman Parke against Jon Tuck, surging middleweights Francis Carmont and Lorenz Larkin face off and a matchup of top flyweight contenders Joseph Benavidez and Darren Uyenoyama is sure to produce fireworks.

The landscape at lightweight could forever be changed on April 20^th, or the champion could position himself as one of the top five pound for pound fighters in the world. Contenders will emerge and prospects could take the step up to legitimate title threats. With so many high profile and intriguing matchups, the UFC is sure to be the destination for excitement and high octane, non-stop action on fight night.

MAIN CARD
155lbs- Benson Henderson (C) vs. Gilbert Melendez
265lbs- Daniel Cormier vs. Frank Mir
155lbs- Nate Diaz vs. Josh Thompson
170lbs- Jordan Mein vs. Matt Brown

PRELIMINARY CARD
145lbs- Chad Mendes vs. Darren Elkins
185lbs- Francis Carmont vs. Lorenz Larkin
155lbs- Ramsey Nijem vs. Myles Jury
125lbs- Joseph Benavidez vs. Darren Uyenoyama
155lbs- Tim Means vs. Jorge Masvidal
135lbs- T.J. Dillashaw vs. Hugo Viana
155lbs- Anthony Njokuani vs. Roger Bowling
185lbs- Clifford Starks vs. Yoel Romero

>>>>Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale Prelim Predictions<<<<

 What of the most exciting seasons of the Ultimate Fighter was followed up with a very eventful night of fights right from the opening bell to the final tapout. Urijah Faber retained his position in the division with an impressive performance against Scott Jorgensen, Kelvin Gastelum did what many felt was impossible when he shut down Uriah Hall in the finals of the tournament and Cat Zingano viciously dispatched of Miesha Tate to become the #1 contender. Kamikaze Overdrive continue its strong run with an 8-4 record and a very profitable bet pack that include multiple winning parlays, 4 of 5 Confidence picks hitting, 3 of 5 Value Picks, 5 winning prop bets, and big win with a bet on Kelvin Gastelum. Check out a recap of the nights fights and the bet pack posted below!

Facebook Prelims

145 lbs. – Sam Sicilia (1-1 UFC) vs. Maximo Blanco (0-1 UFC) – Blanco via U. decision

Both men traded bombs the entire fight and both were rocked on several occasions. The difference was Blanco’s pressure and ability to takedown Sicilia multiple times for the unanimous decision victory.

145 lbs. – Justin Lawrence (1-1 UFC) vs. Daniel Pineda (2-2 UFC) – Pineda via submission (round 1)

Pineda didn’t take long to get a takedown and immediately worked for a behind the back kimura which he secured early in the first round.

145 lbs. – Cole Miller (7-5 UFC) vs. Bart Palaszewski (1-2 UFC) – Miller via submission (round 1)

Miller stood with Palaszewski for some of the first round, but eventually got the takedown took his back and secured the rear naked choke at the end of the first round.

Fuel TV Prelims

185 lbs. – Clint Hester (0-0 UFC) vs. Bristol Marunde (0-0 UFC) – Hester via TKO (round 3)

Marunde decided he would stand and strike with Hester which was a horrible decision as he was battered with punches for 3 rounds until Hester finished him with a standing elbow in round 3.

185 lbs. – Dylan Andrews (0-0 UFC) vs. Jimmy Quinlan (0-0 UFC) – Andrews via TKO (round 1)

Quinlan tried hard to get the fight to the ground, but Andrews defended the takedowns very well and finished Quinlan with punches early in the first round.

185 lbs. – Luke Barnatt (0-0 UFC) vs. Collin Hart (0-0 UFC) – Barnett via U. decision

Hart and Barnatt showed off their striking and grappling skills, but neither had much cardio so this wasn’t the most exciting decision victory. Barnatt won this fight with striking and grappling defense.

185 lbs. – Josh Samman (0-0 UFC) vs. Kevin Casey (0-0 UFC) – Samman via TKO (round 2)

Casey had a very tight armbar/triangle early in the first round, but Samman used raw strength to escape. Casey was gassed by the second round and Samman took advantage by using knees and punches.

Main Card

185 lbs. – Bubba McDaniel (0-0 UFC) vs. Gilbert Smith (0-0 UFC) – McDaniel via submission (round 3)

Smith was able to get a few takedowns on Bubba, but McDaniel was in control for the almost the entire fight with his submissions and striking. McDaniel locked in a nice triangle/armbar late in the fight to win.

265 lbs. – Travis Browne (4-1-1 UFC) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (9-5 UFC) – Browne via TKO (round 1)

The fight quickly moved into the clinch against the cage and as Browne was sprawling a takedown attempt he was able to land powerful elbows to the head of Gonzaga for the finish.

135 lbs. – Miesha Tate (0-0 UFC) vs. Cat Zingano (0-0 UFC) – Zingano via TKO (round 3)

Tate was able to rock Zingano several times early as well as gain dominant positions on the ground, but Zingano was in the fight the whole time and turned it up in round 3 landing knees and elbows to win.

185 lbs. – Uriah Hall (0-0 UFC) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (0-0 UFC) – Gastelum via S. decision

Gastelum stole the show by taking out the top seed in the tournament with a fantastic grappling performance and not too shabby striking either. Hall had great moments in this fight as well though.

135 lbs. – Urijah Faber (3-2 UFC) vs. Scott Jorgensen (3-2 UFC) – Faber via submission (round 4)

Faber was too fast and technical for Jorgensen in this fight, as he won the striking with his knees and punches and also controlled the grappling game until he finished with a rear naked choke.

Ultimate Fighter 17 Finale

*I have started to use Props in my parlays, if your book doesn’t offer the prop or won’t allow them to be used in a parlay- use a pick from my confidence list.

Parlay Doubles

Parlay Triples

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Parlay Double-Double

A Puncher’s Chance

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Parlay #8- Why the Hell not?
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Selection 1: Zingano by Decision $2.10
Selection 2: Dylan Andrews $1.91
Selection 3: Daniel Pineda $1.85
Selection 4: Gilbert Smith $2.55
Selection 5: Browne by KO/TKO/DQ $1.85
Selection 6: Collin Hart $2.15
Selection 7: Dylan Andrews $1.91
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Price: $143.75

Individual Fight Betting Breakdowns

Maximo Blanco $1.37 vs Sam Sicilia $3.17

Blanco is anything but a sure bet, his performance in his debut was a huge letdown and complicating things further he hasn’t fought in a year. On the plus side his move to Jackson’s should help him in preparation for this fight. Both guys are explosive and (excluding Blanco’s last fight) are known for the aggressive styles. I am not that encouraged by these betting odds, even if Maxi’s value increases a little bit it is still a far cry from where I would consider him a worthwhile bet. Sicilia didn’t look out of place against a tough opponent in his Featherweight debut and if he tightens his striking and employs a jab to set up his power he could be a dangerous striker. There seems to be some many “what ifs” and “if this” scenarios that this becomes a hard fight to bet on. My instinct is to take a pass on Blanco as such a heavy favourite. That leaves maybe a small bet on Sicilia with him holding some value as a playable option or if the odd is post at your book take a look at the Total rounds Under 2.5. Sicilia has finishing power and has defensive holes in his game so big that you could drive a truck through them which could also lead to him getting finished.

Justin Lawrence $1.85 vs Daniel Pineda $1.85

Both guys started with a lot of hype- Lawrence on TUF and Pineda with a 2-0 start, but they have since cooled down. The odds are moving with Pineda taking the role of the favourite in the mid to high $1.70 area. I like Pineda’s experience and grit to play a big role here. Lawrence started off well against Holloway, but as soon as things started to get a little bit dicey he wasn’t nearly as effective and eventually was finished. Lawrence is touted as being well rounded and he is to a certain extent, but Pineda on the ground holds a marked advantage. Mike Brown was able to put him on his back several times, but some of the transitions and reversals that Daniel pulled off against such a strong wrestler were impressive. Pineda has power, but should try and exploit the talent gap on the ground while in the process taking Lawrence’s kicking game out of the equation. I like a bet on Pineda, a mid-range single bet, and he also has potential as part of your parlays. Another option to look at here is the under. Pineda is a finisher, never winning a fight by decision and Lawrence has shown that he can finish as well with his dangerous striking arsenal.

Cole Miller $2.56 vs Bart Palaszweski $1.54

Two solid veterans that have fallen on some difficult times. Both have dropped back to back fights and desperation is going to play a major role in this fight. Of the two, Miller’s approach is far more suited for that desperate/ balls to the wall/ do anything for a win style. Bart is much more measured in his approach, which could work in his favour is Cole gets too reckless. Miller hasn’t impressed me since cutting to 145. Steven Siler bullied him during large portions of that fight and Nam Phan had a lot of success with his striking despite dealing with some significant physical disadvantages against Cole. Both guys give out and take a lot of damage which should result in this fight being an exhausting affair, which again favours Bartimus. Cole looks much more fragile at 145 and Palaszweski’s power (17 wins by knockout) could take its toll. Playing Bart straight up here is the way to go, the higher his price gets the more enticing he becomes, but really anything over $1.45 works on a parlay for me. For Miller, his striking is serviceable but not something I would trust to win a fight with, and unless he can get this fight to the ground, which he hasn’t had a lot of success doing in the past, his grappling skills won’t play a huge role.

Josh Samman $1.27 vs Kevin Casey $3.88

For lack of a better way of looking at this fight I think it is being set up as a squash match. Samman is young and talented, Casey is older, one-dimensional, and is coming off of a poor final TUF performance that goes against everything Dana believes in as far as TUF determining if a competitor actually wants to be a fighter or not. If Casey can get on top of Josh then he might have a shot, but even then he needs to finish him. His cardio/ heart are major question marks and handling the much bigger and more athletic opponent will take its toll on ‘King’. Samman’s grappling, especially defensively, needs work and that is something he quite possibly could have addressed since the show. We will find that out together. The one thing we do know about Samman is that he has tools and is the type of fighter that is still developing and getting better, Casey is not. Samman doesn’t offer a whole lot but I still intend to use him on the parlays because I am confident that he takes this one. I will also shop around to see what the Over/Under option is on this fight. There is a good chance it comes in at 1.5 rounds, which is still a playable option at the right price, but I would feel a little more comfortable having that extra round to hit the under.

Collin Hart $2.15 vs Luke Barnatt $1.69

Grappler vs Striker, with the odds favouring the striker here. I was a little surprised to see that Hart was the dog. He has some decent experience having fought for Tachi Palace Fights and is grappling looked pretty good on the show. Barnatt has power and his knees are dangerous which certainly is a legit concern for a fighter that will be frequently shooting face first into that danger zone. If Barnatt was a little more mobile or a little less awkward when he is throwing his strikes then I would tend to side with him, but it just seems like Hart will have a tonne of opportunities to score takedowns. Barnatt couldn’t keep Gilbert Smith off of him until he slowed down significantly and Andrews defeated Luke based on his grappling advantage. TUF fighter predictions can be difficult considering the time that has passed since we last saw these guys compete, but of the two I think that Hart as the greater potential for improvement and already has the skills to win this fight in place. I would suggest a taking a shot with a single bet on Hart and consider working him into a parlay or two.

Dylan Andrews $1.91 vs Jimmy Quinlan $1.77

I went back and forth on this fight and the odds reflect how close this one could be. Quinlan is a strong grappler and has had success with this aspect of his game. He keeps thing simple and they seem to work. Unfortunately, when he gets in a position where he is forced to deviate from his plan it can make things difficult. He showed two sides on the show; he gutted out his first round win against Hester that went anything as planned and then against Samman after getting off to a solid start he folded up shop at the first sign of trouble. Andrews has a more well rounded game and he has experience on his side with more fights and against better competition. He should decent takedown defence in his fights and was effective as punishing Zak Cumming when he shot in. If Quinlan can’t get things moving in the right direction keep them heading in that direction then we could see him fold up again. Andrews was undervalued on the show because of being picked last overall, but he certainly proved many wrong. With the exception of his last fight against Hall he had a great tournament run and should be able to continue it here. I think that Dylan is a decent inclusion on a parlay, but if you can wait until fight day we might see him get over the $2.00 mark. Quinlan has fought just 3 times professionally, and despite his other combat sport experience, it is hard to back a guy at this level with so little to draw from.

Clint Hester $1.61 vs Bristol Marunde $2.36

This going to be an interesting fight. Hester has the tools to be dangerous as he is an above average striker, but with enough wrestling to potentially fend off the grappling of his opponent. On the show he did a good enough job of getting back up after being taken down that he was able to do some serious damage to his opponent. Unfortunately we saw the other end of the spectrum in round 2 when he got submitted. If Marunde can put Hester on his back with regularity he could either pick up a submission or grind out a decision. That scenario has potential and almost got me to take Marunde, but I just haven’t see enough of a skilled grappling game out of him to think he can do this to Hester. Hester around the $1.55-$1.65 mark is worth inclusion on your parlays, but be a little conservative here as the grappling issues (2 pro losses by sub and 1 on TUF) could show up and cost Clint Hester and you.

Gilbert Smith $2.55 vs Bubba McDaniel $1.54

I just don’t understand where all of the love of Bubba is coming from. Yes he has a more filled out resume then most of his opponent’s but his performance on the show was nothing to write home about. I know we could point out the experience/ level of competition issue favouring Bubba here but Smith brings the type of skill set that has traditionally given McDaniel troubles. He has multiple submission losses and his fights on the show proved that although he is quite capable of winning a fight on the ground, he is also quite vulnerable when the fighters go horizontal. Smith’s cardio is a concern as he badly gassed out against Barnatt, but we have to consider the environment he was living in heading into that fight as the TUF house may impact some fighter’s ability to perform at their top level. Either way, I think the play here is Smith he has some sold value here at anything over $2.15 and is worth a small single bet. I say small because I also intend to use him on a parlay or two. For Bubba, he seems like the type of fighter that isn’t going to develop beyond where he is at now and although he comes from a decent camp I still think he is in tough here.

Travis Browne $1.40 vs Gabriel Gonzaga $2.97

Browne’s striking technique leaves a lot to be desired and I was really pissed off when he blew out his knee against Bigfoot as it tainted the upset that I had predicted. For this fight I actually see the opposite as Browne’s striking style will aid him in winning this fight. Gonzaga needs to get Browne to the ground and work his BJJ, but Browne is a big HW and his above average speed and movement (for a 265er) will make it tough for Gabe to get in on a takedown and then complete it. I won’t be surprised if we see Hapa on his back once or even twice, but the size and strength of the big man will take a lot out of Gabe every time he shoots. Gonzaga’s striking is serviceable, but in support to his grappling. If he is forced to rely solely on his stand-up to beat Browne he is going to be in tough. Browne has power and the ability to finish and Gonzaga has had a very spotty history in striking based battles against good Heavyweights. A win is a win, but I thought Gabe benefited in his last fight from facing a depleted opponent, that wont be the case here. Browne should be a bet you are using with regularity on your parlays, he doesn’t offer a lot as far as single bet is concerned unless you take a prop bet with Browne winning by KO/TKO which is also a considerable option.

Miesha Tate $1.91 vs Cat Zingano $1.77

The odds on this fight are disappointing to say the least. I was hoping that Tate being a former champion with her only two losses coming against former champ Kaufmann and current champ Rousey would make her the favourite here. Not the case. Zingano is a good fighter, but she is relatively untested against top end talent. On the other side of things, Tate took a beating against Julie Kedzie and I really question her desire to compete after some of the things she said in the media. Yes she has talked about being fired up now that she is in the UFC, but getting her arm badly damaged by the Champ can really deter a fighter from wanting to climb the ladder again. Zingano is hungry and looking for her shot at the title and prior to that getting some major exposure on the next season of the Ultimate Fighter. There is a lot on the line here and that will put some added pressure on both fighters. In the end I would like Zingano to pay a little bit better and if you are betting on her wait until fight day as Tate’s name recognition will most likely draw some money which will in turn drag this fight closer to even. A parlay bet on Cat is probably the best way to use her, but the price on her head could be improved if you play her to win by decision. She is a grinder and I don’t expect to see her finish Tate and this logic also brings the Over 2.5 rounds into play which is worth a look.

Uriah Hall $1.21 vs Kelvin Gastelum $4.25

The odds are moving on this one and Gastelum value is still high but it is moving down. My original pick in this fight was Hall, but that was before the semi-finals and Kelvin just continues to impress. I think the best way to play this bout is to take a shot with the underdog. Hall has looked impressive, but if you go back to his Elimination bout it went to decision and was a pretty close contest. Gastelum is very raw, but he has been getting the job done and his aggressive style could prove to be the best counter for the more balanced and calculated striking attack of Uriah. Hall doesn’t offer a lot as the fav with the best price I have seen so far hitting a $1.30. My play here is a single bet on Gastelum based on value and then to just sit back and enjoy this fight.

Urijah Faber $1.25 vs Scott Jorgensen $4.35

I am going to keep this one pretty short as well. Jorgensen has had great success until he makes the step up in competition against the likes of Cruz, Barao, and Wineland and Faber fits that category of elite level fighter. For Faber, he has been running the table in fights when the title is not on the line (fighting Championship level opponents) beating solid level opponents like Assunacao, Menjivar, and Bowles- Jorgensen falls in here. So unless Urijah has a major drop off in performance or Scotty rises to the occasion of the second biggest fight of his career, Faber should win this. For betting purposes he doesn’t offer much, but I will still use him in parlay or two. The other option is to consider Faber by submission. Faber has submitted a number of top level opponents and Jorgensen was having some trouble with John Albert’s submission game. Faber will look to make a statement to ensure he holds his position in the division and finishing a tough guy like Scotty would go a long way to doing that. I haven’t seen the price on Faber by sub, but I think it will pay in the $4.50 to $5.50 range which is worth a single bet.

Whole Event Confidence Bets Ranking (1- Most Confident to Win outright)

1. Urijah Faber $1.25

2. Travis Browne $1.40

3. Josh Samman $1.27

4. Bart Palaszweski $1.54

5. Dylan Andrews $1.91

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6. Cat Zingano $1.77

7. Daniel Pineda $1.85

8. Uriah Hall $1.21

9. Gilbert Smith $2.55

10. Collin Hart $2.15

11. Clint Hester $1.61

12. Maximo Blanco $1.37

-Purchase the $5 Bet Pack to get my rankings for the entire event + my non-predicted Top 5 Value Plays

Top Value Bets (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

The Value Bet list is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win.

• Even on a good night I don’t anticipate winning every fight on this list, realistically 2-3 correct picks would be considered a successful event.
• I do not recommend backing every fighter listed, these are just suggestions where the greatest betting value on the card lies, it is up to you to make the decision where to invest your money.

Top Value Bets for non-Predicted Winners (1- Greatest Value based on Betting odds & Ability to Win)

The Value Bet list for non-predicted winners is a list of fighters ranked based on a combination of their ability to win their fight and the potential financial return you would receive if they win. These 5 fighters are the best betting options available of all of the fighters that I predicted to lose and although I fully endorse my own predicted winner I feel that giving this type of information is only fair to my followers as it gives them further insight into my opinion on each match-up.

Prop Bets-

Kevin Casey/ Josh Samman Total Rounds Under 2.5- Samman is a finisher and Casey is going to struggle to deal with his power and aggression. Even if this fight gets out of the first round I expect to see Casey slowing down and eventually succumbing to Samman in some fashion or another. Play the Under.

Travis Browne to Win by KO/TKO/DQ- The odds aren’t posted yet, but I would expect it will be somewhere around the $2.00 mark, maybe slightly below. Gabe has been knocked out 5 times in his career and Browne has the power and capability to make it a sixth.

Travis Browne/ Gabriel Gonzaga Total Rounds Under 1.5- This play follows the same line of thought and if Gabe is able to get on top of Browne and work his Jits then he could bring about the finish and you are still a winner with this play.

Sam Sicilia/ Maximo Blanco Total Rounds Under 2.5- Both fighters are known for their fast starts and that could lead to the early finish if one is able to land cleanly. They have combined to have 15 fights end inside the first round, play the odds.

Justin Lawrence/ Daniel Pineda Total Rounds Under 2.5- All of Pineda’s wins have come by some form of finish and Lawrence showed against Cofer that he is capable of ending a fight with one strike.

Cat Zingano to Win by Decision- Tate is a tough customer and while Zingano does have 6 finish is 7 wins I expect this to be a competitive fight with Cat using her grappling both along the cage and on the mat to grind out a decision win.

Urijah Faber to Win by Submission- Faber paid well to submit Menjivar (your welcome) and he has a list of guys where he is their only submission defeat. He needs an impressive win to continue to hold his position until Cruz gets back with the company, which could set up a title shot if he can beat Barao. Jorgensen did have some trouble with Albert on the ground and if Faber gets the position he is a finisher.