Fantasy Fight Analysis- UFN 84

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About Me:

Gambling has been a vocation of mine since my father first took me to the racetrack at 6-years of age.  Over the course of the years I have placed wagers on all major sports, horse & dog racing and once even at an indoor track meet!  While not a full-time “professional gambler”, it has been a vocation that has absorbed a fair amount of my discretionary time with momentary pauses for life events.  Like many gamblers, I have had “peaks & valleys”.  From having to light my race program on fire to thaw out a frozen key hole on my car after leaving a harness track at midnight in the middle of winter to looking for change under my car seat to pay a highway toll after getting “busted up” at a dog track (while in college).  On the other side, winning $8k on Felix Trinidad @ +110 against Oscar De La Hoya to hitting a Pick 4 @ Belmont for $12k and the following week @ Del Mar for $8k.  I have learned that the public is not always right and it is OK to have a strong opinion on an underdog.   My love of MMA is an extension from my love of boxing.  I have been fortunate enough to attend a number of major fights in Las Vegas.  It is hard to describe the energy of a Las Vegas fight crowd.  The advent of Daily Fantasy (DFS) and the ability to apply to MMA, pushed me over the edge from that of a casual fan, to a vocation that surpassed the NFL as my sport of choice.  I first played DFS MMA on a card held during the summer of 2015.  I turned a modest $36 investment into +$400 in cash and tickets.  In particular, I have had a good amount of success over the course of the last 3-months.  Following up on winning a *contest on Draft Kings, which included an all expenses trip to the UFC on Fox Event in Orlando (including dinner and sitting ring side with Frank Mir), there were 2-UFC Events that yielded me a net profit of $10k (per card).  While I have not yet won the top prize in the small buy-in/multiple entrants contests, I have won a number of contests with buy-ins ranging from $50-$1,060.

*Using a line-up provided by Kamikaze Overdrive

UFC Fight Night 84 – Relative Value Play of the Card Recapping UFC Fight Night 83:

On a side note.  Apparently, I have been spending more than enough on Draft Kings, as I was sent an email and given access to a “VIP” email address!

I am know breathing in “rarefied air” relative to my DFS MMA career, in that this event culminated in the first time that I have experienced “significant losses in back to back UFC Events.

Faszholz $8,500 (38-points)- I love how this fight started. Crisp punches in combinations and knees against the cage. Round 1: I had her up 10-9. Towards the end of the 2nd Round, Kelly started to tire (working 12-hours a day and training on top of a short notice fight). Here is where Brett and I have differences of opinion. I would have liked to see Kelly shoot for a take down at the early stages of the 2nd round. My thought being that she could use her superior submission skills. Oh well. On most cards, I would generally be OK with 38-points for $8,500, though this card had a plethora of 1st round stoppages/100-point performances

Hamilton $9,600 (20-points) – This was an absolute “killer”. I did a write up on this fight and stated that I didn’t like either guy. I let myself back in based on the price point and the fact that I had a superior level of distaste for Shamil. I also got somewhat suckered in by Hamilton training at Jackson/Wink and felt he could improve his fight IQ

Reneau $10,300 (28.5-points) – God awful decision. I am not sure whether the additional 25-points would have mattered that much for DFS, though it killed a number of my 5Dimes plays

UFC Fight Night 84:

The short turn time from FN 83 and the 12:45 PM EST start time, have me hustling.  Kudos to Scott for his work on the Bet Pack.  I am not above trading a cut of the proceeds for some line-up assistance from my European counterparts.

One fight that did jump out at me:

Gegard Mousasi (37-6-2) DK- $11,000/5D -320 v Thales Leites (25-5) DK – $8,400/5D +260

Thales Leites is 34-years old and is 5-1 in his last 6-fights in the UFC (including 2 “Performance of the Night” awards).  The only loss on his record since 10/2010 is a SD loss last year to Michael Bisping that some thought he might have won.  Over the recent streak there were wins against: Ed Herman, Trevor Smith & Tim Boetch.  Under a prior tenure with the UFC, Thales took a Decision loss from Anderson Silva (2009).  14 of his wins have come by Submission

 

Gegard Mousasi is only 30-years old, has had whopping 45-MMA Fights to going along with 13-amateur boxing bouts and 8-kick boxing matches.  That seems to me like a good deal of mileage on someone so young?  Gegard is 5-months removed from a brutal KO by spinning back kick courtesy of Uriah Hall.  Perhaps because of Gegard’s reputation, it was a slow stoppage where he took an additional 10-shots of “ground & pound” from Hall.  Over his last 6-fights in the UFC, Gegard has a record of 3-3.  In addition to Hall, he sports losses to Lyoto Machida & Ronaldo Souza.  His wins have come against Mark Munoz (whose skill sets have diminished faster than Paris Hilton’s popularity), 43-year old Dan Henderson and a UD win against the now retired Costas Philippou.  Looking 2-fights further back, he submitted an over matched Mike Pyle and was given all he could handle in a UD victory from short notice replacement Illir Latifi

 

Why I like Thales Leites:
  • I see Leites recent body of work as impressive as Gegard’s and he could just as easily be coming into this fight on 9-fight win streak
  • Gegard is coming off of a brutal KO and has participated in a large number of fights considering his age
  • I see Leites as have the better submission game and Gegard as having better striking
  • The numbers have the fight going over 2 ½ rounds @ -155
  • Leites is the 2nd cheapest fighter on the DK board

@$8,400 Leites will be the low cost lynch pin in my DK line-ups.  Also, at over a 2 ½ – 1 underdog, I may take a flyer on 5D, as I do feel that he can win the fight.  Even if you are not playing Leites in your DK line-ups, @$11,000 (2nd highest) Gegard is almost a must fade, as there is so much better value available at the higher end of the price range.

Good luck everyone and check out the “Bet Pack”!

 

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