Fights
Wins
Losses
Win %
Last Show
Kamikaze Overdrive
1505
942
573
63%
UFN 57: 6-6-0

 

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JOSH COPELAND $2.90 vs RUSLAN MAGOMEDOV $1.50

The prelim headliner is a Heavyweight bout which at first glance flies in the face of one of my trends, but I will address that momentarily. Copeland hits hard and we saw Mags floored a couple of times in his debut by a grappling based opponent. Ruslan is the far more accomplished fighter with better overall technique and superior experience. Most of Copeland's fights that I watched came against "Heavyweights" who for the most part are just overweight guys who under the proper conditions would be fighting at Middleweight. I am not in a position to criticize, just stating my observation. At 6 1" Copeland isn't a massive man in his own right and could possible cut to 205 if things don't go well during his initial foray in the land of the giants. I think Mags will be too strong for him and if this fight gets beyond the opening frame Copeland will have trouble keeping up on the cards. At HW anything can happen with one big shot, so Mags in the Silver section seems about right. As far as the Over/ Under is concerned, Heavies usually warrant a Under bet, but Magomedov as many decision wins as subs/knockout combined. He has also gone to the cards in 6 of his last 7 fights. I think Copeland is the more likely to get the finish, but I see Mags winning and that is why the UFC has positioned the fighter they feel more likely to win and go the distance in this position on the card. Savvy?

DOOHO CHOI/ JUAN PUIG Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.20- Like I outlined in the breakdown: “Over the last 12 events of the 2 opening fights, 15 of 24 have hit the Under. That is a 63% success rate. Out of those 12 events only 2 have seen both opening bouts go Over, and one of those two included Colby Covington who got the finish just narrowly after the total had been surpassed.” Choi has big knockout numbers and Puig has shown solid finishing skills on the mat. With the second fight of the night in a division not known for big finishing rates this one continues the trend. Play the Under.




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