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UFC FN 46: 6-4-0

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TOR TROENG $1.61 vs TREVOR SMITH $2.55

I like Smith, I liked him in Strikeforce but outside of his back and forth battle with a shot out Ed Herman I am just not sold on him. His grappling is good, but he is too slow on the feet and tires out way too quickly. Nonetheless this still has the potential to be a fun fight. Tor's eyes rolled back twice versus Natal, but he recovered. Still not something you want to have happen to your fighter. He is good on the ground and if he is capable of hanging with Natal on the mat he should be able to do the same versus Smith. Watch for Smith to attempt a guillotine and Tor to counter the move and move into top position in the process. If the first fight is a grind, not matter who wins, Smith will be considerably slower in rounds 2 and 3 giving Tor the ability to take control of the bout. If Tor gets off to a good star, Smith won't be able to recover short of landing something huge- not his forte. Tor is still a bit of an unproven quantity at this level. I still like what he brings more then what Smith offers and at $1.61 he fits into your parlays, but certainly not to the extend of the previously mentioned Sampo.

NEIL SEERY $1.69 vs PHIL HARRIS $2.35

I was impressed with Seery in his very short notice debut against a far more skilled opponent then he is faced with here. Yes, Phil Harris beat Neil a couple of years ago, but they have taken different trajectory since that bout. On a side note I was reading a breakdown for this fight on one of the big MMA sites and the writer noted in the comments that he had no idea these two had previously fought after someone else mentioned it. Seriously? How much research are you doing for your picks then? That is one of the first things I look for- it can tell you so much, especially if it was fairly recent. Harris is chinny and is also vulnerable to getting submitted. I really struggled to believe that he has the ground skills to consistently gain top position and even with a takedown here or there Seery will badly out work him on the feet and potentially crack that chin. I really like Seery's value here and he will be a part of my Gold plays for sure, almost certainly on a parlay, but potentially as a single bet as well.
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