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Kamikaze Overdrive
UFC 177: 8-0-0

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Lorenz Larkin $2.18 vs Derek Brunson $1.81

I was leaning towards Larkin here for quite a while, pretty much right up until I got to the final paragraph of my breakdown. I then looked at my analysis and realized that this was an example of me reaching for a prediction and ignoring the obvious counterpoints to make my pick. Once in a while this works out, but not that often so I promised myself that I wouldn't do it again or at least to do it less. Brunson's wrestling and busier striking game should carry the day here. I am concerned that he slows in fights and Larkin does seem to get a little stronger or at least in his grove as times passes. But I just don't see Lorenz being able to stop him late. Brunson has looked much better and has the tools to short circuit Larkin's attack. I like the value here, I might consider a single bet on Brunson with so few major plays available. I also like the over here as the final prelim bout regularly goes the distance and I'll explain more in the prop section.

Ramsey Nijem/ Carlos Diego Ferreira Total Rounds Under 1.5 $2.60- This play is a risk, no doubt about. What I do know is that Nijem is aggressive and that can lead to a finish one way or another. Since joining the UFC 5 of his 8 bouts have ended inside the first 1.5 rounds. For CDF, he is dangerous submission artist and if he can get Nijem in a vulnerable position he will finish.

Bethe Correia/ Shayna Baszler Total Rounds Under 2.5 $3.05- What? Did you read that right? Yes you did. Of Bethe’s 8 wins, 7 have been by decision. With just 1 win inside the distance, why is this a valid play. Well when Shayna gasses, she gasses so hard. She has been finished in 6 of her 8 losses, with only one of them going into that final 2:30 or the ”you have to be kidding me” zone. Additionally, Shayne is super aggressive with her submission game and scored finishes in 14 of her 15 wins. So at $3.05 I will take a shot.

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