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UFC Fight Night 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn odds - BestFightOdds


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Aleksei Oleinik Wins by Submission +250
Oleinik has won 41 of his 50 career victories by submission. That is 82% for all of you mathmatologists. I like those odds when we are getting this type of value. Pesta’s wrestling might be his strength, but on his back he will be simply overwhelmed by his foe. His recent 11-fight winning streak was highlighted by 9 submission wins. He adds another here, possibly rocking Pesta before tapping him out.

Cyril Asker -112 vs Dmitrii Smoliakov +108
Smoliakov looked like hot trash in his debut. He was shorting his punches and looked tired half way through round 1. There were questions about his level of competition and they seemed to be answered fairly quickly. If he can't get his opponent out of their quickly, it is going to get ugly. Asker didn't have a great debut, but it was against a pretty tough opponent. Overall, he seems durable enough and a better overall fighter to get by the early onslaught from Smoliakov to get the win. Regardless, it is a HW bout with a pair of 0-1 UFC fighters- Bronze play.

Alex Garcia to Win by TKO/KO/DQ +175
I actually had to go back and look at the line again after typing it in. This is a must play. Pyle has been knocked out in 5 of his last 6 defeats and at 41 his ability to take a punch won’t be getting better anytime soon. Garcia is a flawed fighter, but he hits hard, lands his strikes, and works out of a good camp. If Sean Spencer was able to hurt Pyle, so can Garcia. Include this play somewhere on your card.

Neil Magny to Win by Decision +200
Hendricks took some big shots against Gastelum and didn’t go down. I don’t expect to see Magny lighting him up with huge bombs, relying on his volume to carry the day. If Johny wiped himself out trying to make weight than he could gas and get finished on the mat, but I like the odds here on Magny by decision.

Dong Hyun Kim -135 vs Tarec Saffiedine +128
Both fighters have distinct styles and if this was a 5-round fight I might favour Tarec, but I don't here. Saffiedine has trouble with pressure and while his TDD is good, he gets stuck in the clinch way too much. Those are 2 areas that Kim builds his attack around. If Saffiedine can't find a way to turn Dong back, Dong is going to Dong. Kim might even get the stoppage, but at the least he will hold superior position on the wall and be the more active striker. With Kim have some cardio issues and trending toward the reckless side of things, I dropped him to a Silver play.

Max Holloway/Anthony Pettis Doesn’t Go the Distance +100
If Pettis wins it will have to be via stoppage as he won’t be able to watch Max’s output over 5-round. Conversely, the struggle to make weight and the letdown of failing, will compromise Pettis’s physical and mental state and make it hard for him to go a full 5 with a fighter like Holloway. Either Pettis stops him early or Max gets it done late (or early if Pettis is that beat down).

Donald Cerrone by TKO/KO/DQ +340
Brown has a good chin, but he got cracked by Brown. A career of being hard to finish will eventually catch up to you and it might have caught up to the “Immortal” one. While Cerrone is more than capable of cracking Brown on the chin, I am making this played based on his body. Brown’s body/liver is vulnerable and has seen him crumple to the ground on multiple occasions. Cerrone is a smart fighter with multiple weapons to exploit this. My bigger concern is that Cerrone goes for a sub after dropping him.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier to Win by Submission +390
With 6 of 7 wins by sub, that stat alone almost mandates a bet on OAM by sub at this type of return. All but 1 of his wins have been by RNC, which is the type of sub he can put himself in position to pick up against a fighter that will give up his back to get vertical. Dober has only been subbed once, but I feel OAM’s constant TD pressure combined with the lack of power that Dober offers will keep the Canadian in range for TDs and submission attempts all fight. Too much of a return to pass up.

UFN 102 Bet Pack Results
Parlays
Big Bank Roll: 10.99u Profit | Big Reward: 18.32u Profit
Confidence List: 1. Ngannou, 2. Lima, 3. Lewis, 4. Anderson 5. Villante
Betting Scenario: EPU 1-1, FPO 1-0
Props: 6-3

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