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Kamikaze Overdrive
UFC on FOX 12: 9-3-0

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Juliana Lima $3.41 vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk $1.37

Two debuting fighters, a new weight class, single digit experience, one making her first cut to 115 pounds. Check, check, check, check. The stars would appear aligned for an EPU candidate and for you and me to hit Lima hard. Unfortunately, I see JJ hitting her even harder. The key to making the EPU theory work is when we are able to identify fighter or fights that won't fall into this category. Despite all of these factors mentioned above, I just don't see Lima beating JJ. Lima seems pretty rough around the edges on the feet and while she looks decent on top it is against low level comp, JJ is not low level. Her striking is pretty diverse and she hits incredibly hard. The manner in which she dispatched Rosi Sexton was down right impressive and keep in mind she is now fighting at 115- her power should translate. Another factor I like to look at and I will call it from this point on the 'Brock Lesnar Question' or the BLQ is how does Lima react to being hit. In the footage I have seen she got crack with a couple low power shots from a less then refined striker and immediately shot out of desperation. It seems that she doesn't like or better yet doesn't react well to getting punch and this could result in her shutting down when JJ starts to unload. As a result I think that at $1.37 we could certainly consider playing JJ as part of a parlay, nothing too extensive as her pay is limited. More interesting is a potential prop bet coming through here. This was long, I will move the rest to the prop section.
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